KS-02

A Day At The Congressional Races

Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: The money is flowing like water, as more and more candidates in close races are hitting the airwaves.

Senate GOP Candidates In Possible Financial Hot Water Over Ad Errors
The FEC and FCC are now examining complaints in four states -- Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and Virginia -- involving the failure of Republican Senate candidates to have their approval disclaimers run for the appropriate length of time in their ads. If the complaints pan out, these candidates would have to pay a higher rate for their TV advertising for the rest of the campaign -- though it's unlikely that the agencies will actually take such a step over this error.

Millions of Dollars Being Pumped Into New Hampshire Senate Rae
The money is flowing heavily into the New Hampshire Senate race, where first-term GOP Sen. John Sununu has trailed former Dem Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in the polls. Between the candidates themselves, their party committees, and outside groups, over $5.4 million has been spent for TV ads on the state's biggest station, WMUR.

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Don't Miss Tonight's Primaries

You may not have noticed, but there are actually some key primaries going on today in a few states -- and the results will be coming in tonight. Two races in particular bear watching:

In Michigan's 13th District, a safe Dem seat, the scandals facing Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick could end up spilling over and ruining a big name in local politics: His mother, Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who has staunchly defended her son in the local press.

A recent poll from Michigan firm Epic/MRA shows Kilpatrick just narrowly ahead in a three-way primary: Kilpatrick 33%, former state Rep. Mary Waters 29%, and state Sen. Martha Scott 24%. If Kilpatrick does win, it will only be because of a divided opposition.

In Kansas' Second District, Republican voters will be picking the nominee to go up against freshman Dem incumbent Nancy Boyda, who is among the most endangered Democrats this cycle. The two choices are right-wing former Rep. Jim Ryun, who Boyda defeated in a big upset in 2006, or the more moderate state treasurer Lynn Jenkins.

This race has become a major battle between the state GOP's moderate and conservative factions, and these things are never pretty. For example, the local chapter of the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership put out a press release attacking Ryun, charging that by aligning himself with the Family Research Council and its head Tony Perkins, Ryun was effectively in league with David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan.

The polls close tonight in both states at the same time: 8 p.m. ET.


Dems To Run On Stem-Cell Research And Other Political Updates

Here's a quick roundup of political news relating to down-ticket races:

* Democrats plan to use the issue of stem-cell research against two Republican Senators from blue states who have voted against it: Norm Coleman and John Sununu, The Hill reports.

* Coleman, meanwhile, is busy raising money for an expected challenge from a strong Democratic contender, possibly from comedian Al Franken.

* Senator Tom Harkin told The Des Moines Register that he is taking the necessary steps to run for re-election in 2008, but stopped short of a full commitment. The 67-year old Harkin said, "until I tell you differently, the Democratic presidential nominee will have Harkin on the ballot in Iowa."

* The Hill reports that freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-KS, might face former state Attorney General Phill Kline in 2008. Kline — who does not live in Boyda's district — was defeated for re-election in historically Republican Kansas by a wide margin last Fall.

* Nathan Daschle, son of former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, has been appointed as the new executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, Roll Call is reporting.

* Roll Call notes that a special election nexth month for the New York State Senate would — if Dems pick up the open GOP-held seat — leave Democrats just two seats away from a majority. If a majority is achieved in 2008 or 2010, their ability to totally control redistricting would have a drastic impact on the state's six remaining GOP House members.

ID-01, KS-02: CQ Shifts Two More Races In Favor Of Dems

More ratings changes from CQ Politics:

* ID-01: CQ's just shifted its ranking of the race in this staunchly conservative district between GOPer Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican": "Sali’s unpredictable temper and history of conflict with members of his own party, an issue in the primary campaign, has since made it unexpectedly difficult for him to get 1st District Republicans to close ranks behind him."

* KS-02: CQ's also changed its rating of the contest between GOPer Jim Ryun and Dem Nancy Boyda -- once seen as a sure GOP win thanks partly to Ryun's iconic status as a record-setting runner in college -- from from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican": "The fact that Bush, according to Associated Press, is expected to make a late campaign appearance for Ryun suggests GOP officials may be more worried about the Kansas 2 campaign than they let on. Officials with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee evidently saw something they liked. Although they still have not included this district on their list of targeted challenge races, they did make a small ad buy in late October."

ID-01, KS-02: CQ Shifts Two More Races In Favor Of Dems

More ratings changes from CQ Politics:

ID-01: CQ's just shifted its ranking of the race in this staunchly conservative district between GOPer Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican": "Sali’s unpredictable temper and history of conflict with members of his own party, an issue in the primary campaign, has since made it unexpectedly difficult for him to get 1st District Republicans to close ranks behind him."

* KS-02:CQ's also changed its rating of the contest between GOPer Jim Ryun and Dem Nancy Boyda -- once seen as a sure GOP win thanks partly to Ryun's iconic status as a record-setting sprinter in college -- from from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican": "The fact that Bush, according to Associated Press, is expected to make a late campaign appearance for Ryun suggests GOP officials may be more worried about the Kansas 2 campaign than they let on. Officials with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee evidently saw something they liked. Although they still have not included this district on their list of targeted challenge races, they did make a small ad buy in late October."

KS-02: GOP Rep. Ryun Caught In Foleygate Fib

GOP Rep. Jim Ryun's campaign has admitted that, contrary to past assertions, he did in fact know for some time that disgraced former Rep. Mark Foley lived across the street from him in Washington, D.C. The Capital Journal reports today that Ryun's campaign manager made the admission. Earlier this month, Ryun, a prominent Christian conservative, told a Capital Journal reporter that he'd only learned recently he lived across the street from Foley, as a way of arguing that he knew nothing about Foleygate. But that story fell apart after Capital Journal unearthed evidence that the two men had co-hosted a joint fundraiser in May -- on their block, during which donors visited both houses. Whoops! More after the jump.

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KS-02: Boyda Keeps Pace With Incumbent Ryun In 3rd Q. Fundraising

FEC filings released today show that Democratic challenger Nancy Boyda kept pace with GOP incumbent Jim Ryun in fundraising for the third quarter. Election Central reported last week that Kansas's 2nd district may be a surprisingly competitive race due to Boyda's strong grassroots campaigning and a difficult environment for the GOP. Despite running in a heavily GOP state and district and rejecting help from her national party, Boyda managed to raise raised $148 k last quarter, just shy of Ryun's $157 k. Of course, all of this came before Vice President Cheney's visit to the district last week that raised $200k for the Ryun campaign.

KS-02: Dem Poll And Cheney Visit Show GOP's Ryun May Not Be Safe

Is the race between Kansas GOP Rep Jim Ryun and Dem challenger Nancy Boyda shaping up as competitive? Today's Lawrence Journal-World reports that the Boyda campaign released a new internal poll which says the race is statistically tied at 43% for Ryun and 42% for Boyda. What's more, Dick Cheney will be in the district fundraising tomorrow for Ryun, suggesting at least some GOP concern. National observers are cautious about rating the race due to the lack of public polling. The National Journal's Chuck Todd hasn't ranked it in his top 50 competetive races. Nonetheless, Todd tells Election Central: "It's the type of race that in a wave environment could go."

KS-02: A Chance In Kansas?

Few national observers thought that GOP Rep Jim Ryun had any cause to worry about his seat this year. His Dem challenger, Nancy Boyda, ran against him two year ago, and got soundly defeated by 15 points. Kansas gave President Bush nearly twice as many votes as it gave John Kerry in 2004. And the national Democratic Party is so unpopular in the state that Boyda has openly rejected its help. But in yet another sign that GOP incumbents are no longer safe in even the most conservative states, some local observers are saying that Boyda has a small chance at unseating Ryun in their rematch this November.

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