Paris Hilton's Mother Objects To McCain Ad
Paris Hilton's mother Kathy Hilton -- who has donated $2,300 to John McCain -- has responded to McCain's new ad using her daughter as a means of attacking Barack Obama. "It is a complete waste of the money John McCain's contributors have donated to his campaign," Mrs. Hilton writes for the Huffington Post.

Both Candidates Off The Trail Today
Neither Barack Obama nor John McCain have any public events scheduled for today. But don't think they're taking the day off: They'll likely be spending today actively strategizing and/or raising money.

McCain: We'll Respond If Obama Accuses Us Of Racism
John McCain made it clear that his campaign will continue to fire back at Barack Obama if they are accused of race-baiting against him. "We're not gonna allow racism to come into this campaign in any form," McCain told ABC News. "And so I'm gonna respond if it comes up again."

Lieberman: Obama "A Good Young Man"
Appearing today on Meet The Press, Joe Lieberman defended the Paris/Britney ad as "cute," and said the intention to raise questions about Obama's readiness for the presidency. "This is a good young man," Lieberman said. "Is he ready to lead or as ready as John McCain? The answer is no."

Obama Defends Shift On Drilling
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Barack Obama defended his shift on offshore drilling -- from opposing it to supporting a larger energy compromise proposal that includes it: "If we can come up with a genuine bipartisan compromise, in which I have to accept some things that I don't like, or the Democrats have to accept some things that they don't like in exchange for actually moving us in the direction of actual energy independence, then that's something I'm open to."

Obama's Long Indiana Stop Has Press Wondering About Bayh For VP
Press speculation seems to be growing about Evan Bayh as Barack Obama's running mate, due to an extra-long campaign stop in Indiana this week. Obama campaign spokesman Robert Gibbs told NBC that this is simply evidence that Indiana is a competitive state this year.

Report: McCain Team Vetting Eric Cantor For VP
The Associated Press reports that the McCain campaign is actively vetting Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor for vice president. Picking the ultra-conservative and Jewish Cantor would potentially help McCain among Jewish voters as well as right-wing activists -- and set up an interesting scenario if Barack Obama were to pick Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, giving the campaign two tickets where the running mates hail from the same state.

Planned Parenthood Ad Hits McCain On Birth Control
Planned Parenthood Action Fund is launching this new ad against John McCain in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin, plus the D.C. media market. The ad bluntly tells women voters that they can't trust John McCain on the issue of birth control, playing back the video from when McCain couldn't answer a question about requiring insurance companies to cover it:

Obama Discussing National Security In Deep-Red Indiana
Barack Obama is spending today in Indiana, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 but where a recent SurveyUSA poll gave him an improbable one-point lead. He will be joined at Purdue University by Senator Evan Bayh and former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, both viewed in the press as potential running mates, for a "Summit on Confronting 21st Century Threats."

McCain Pitching School Vouchers To The NAACP
John McCain will be speaking today to the NAACP, a venue where Republicans haven't done well and where Barack Obama was already very well received with his own speech. McCain will use this as an opportunity to reach out to African-American voters on education reform: "If I am elected president, school choice for all who want it, an expansion of Opportunity Scholarships, and alternative certification for teachers will all be part of a serious agenda of education reform."

Poll: Obama Ahead, Both Candidates Are Flip-Floppers
The new CBS/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a 45%-39% lead over John McCain among registered voters, a margin unchanged from the 48%-42% lead he had a month ago. Meanwhile, both candidates have come to be viewed as flip-floppers: Barack Obama is seen as having changed his views in order to get elected by 56% of voters, and 51% say the same thing about John McCain.

McCain Cites "Czechoslovakia" Again
For the second time in two days, John McCain yesterday discussed his foreign policy concerns by referring to Czechoslovakia -- a country that hasn't existed for 15 years. On the bright side, he did at least refer to Russia's interactions with Czechoslovakia, and not the Soviet Union.

Pro-War Group Getting Involved In Senate Races
Freedom's Watch, the right-wing 501(c)(4) group that has set out to further a pro-Iraq War agenda, is now targeting Senate races under the direction of longtime GOP operative Tony Feather. On the one hand, their intervention into Senate races will be a welcome assist to the under-funded NRSC -- but on the other hand, their record in special elections this past cycle was hardly a success, with the GOP losing two deep-red seats in the South.

Al Franken Gets Long-shot Primary Challenger
Trial lawyer Priscilla Lord Faris, scion of a prominent Minnesota Democratic family, has announced that she will run in the September primary for Senate against Al Franken, telling Election Central that his campaign is "floundering" and something must be done. A Minnesota Dem source was highly skeptical that Faris has the time to build up any sufficient organization or name recognition that would pose a serious threat.

Obama To Promote His Version Of Faith-Based Social Programs
Barack Obama will be speaking today in Ohio, where he will deliver a speech calling for an expansion of government cooperation with faith-based programs. The Obama campaign's e-mail to reporters says that religious charity programs would be held to all civil rights standards in hiring and who they serve, while the Associated Press adds that religious organizations would still be able to discriminate in non-taxpayer funded areas.

McCain Speaking To Sheriffs Today
John McCain will be speaking this morning to the National Sheriffs' Association conference in Indianapolis -- possibly a sign that his campaign views Obama as a serious threat to carry the red state of Indiana, or that he aims to pitch himself as a Nixon-style "law and order" candidate. He will then travel to Mexico and Colombia, where he will likely promote the principles of free trade.

NRA To Go After Obama This Year
A right-wing group is set to mount a major offensive against Barack Obama: Namely, the National Rifle Association. The NRA is planning to spend $40 million on the presidential campaign, with $15 million on ads portraying Obama as a threat to Second Amendment Rights.

McCain Takes Money From Swift-Boat Backers
USA Today points out this morning that John McCain has had no problem accepting $70,000 in donations this cycle from backers of the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth in 2004, despite his condemnation of the group at the time. On top of this, it should be noted that the McCain camp has included Bud Day, an active participant in Swift Boat commercials, in their "Truth Squad" to go after Wesley Clark's criticism of McCain's national security credentials.

Rasmussen: McCain Ahead In Florida
A new Rasmussen poll of Florida gives John McCain the lead in this large swing state. The numbers: McCain 48%, Obama 41%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Other recent polls have put Obama ahead, leaving the situation ambiguous.

Poll: Dem Ahead In Deep-Red House Seat In Kentucky
A new SurveyUSA poll suggests that Democrats could be poised to pick up a deep-red Kentucky House district that voted 65% for President Bush in 2004. In the district of retiring GOPer Ron Lewis, Democratic state Sen. David Boswell has a 47%-44% edge over Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie, within the ±4.3% margin of error.

Now this is something. A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Barack Obama is tied with John McCain in Indiana, a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.

The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. For some perspective, George W. Bush won this state by a whopping 60%-39% margin in 2004.

The Obama campaign made news a few days ago by sending a top staffer to this red state, and Indiana has also been included in their first big ad campaign of the general election.

Meanwhile, a separate SurveyUSA poll also puts Obama narrowly ahead in New Mexico by 49%-46%, within the ±4.3% margin of error in a traditional swing state that went for Gore in 2000 and then Bush in 2004.

Does the Obama campaign really believe Indiana is in play?

Team Obama has assigned one of its most valued campaign staffers to the state, reports the Indianapolis Star. The staffer, Emily Parcell, was political director for Obama in Iowa, where the Illinois Senator secured a huge win that essentially put him on the path to the nomination.

The Obama campaign says it shows they're taking the state seriously. However, as Taegan Goddard notes, political experts think that the Obama team doesn't really believe this and is merely messing with the minds of the McCain team.

The last two times Indiana went Democratic were during LBJ's 1964 landslide win and FDR's 1936 lopsided win. However, the Obama team is running a general election ad in the state -- the first Dem to do so in memory.

Ultimately this is really about the huge disparity in resources here. The Obama team can do more than merely say they believe they have a real shot at states like Indiana. They can afford to act like they believe it, too.

Late Update: A commenter below puts it well: "Is it really in play? We won't know without playing there. That's the whole point: only one way to find out." And they have the resources to find out -- that's the real key.

It's official: Hillary will hang on to a victory, such as it is, in Indiana. MSNBC and Fox just called it for her.

With 99% reporting, Hillary wins it 51%-49%.

Given the magnitude of Obama's North Carolina victory, this falls far short of the split decision that the Hillary camp was hoping, at a minimum, to achieve tonight.

And it's not even a big enough win for the Hillary campaign to use in continuing to try to raise doubts about Obama's ability to compete in big states, either.

Right now, the pledged del count overall, from both states tonight, breaks down this way: Obama gets 80; Hillary gets 77; and 30 are still up in the air, more of which are likely to go to him.

Upshot: Just as tonight's popular vote gains for Obama effectively wiped out Hillary's gains from Pennsylvania, so, too, will his pledged del gains likely wipe out hers from the Keystone State.

Hillary has routinely sent out rousing fundraising emails just after her electoral victories in order to squeeze excited supporters for yet another round of contributions.

But the fundraising email she sent out tonight after her Indiana "win" -- which is in doubt as we speak -- is revealingly muted, even subdued...

Tonight's victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference.

Every call you made, every friend you spoke to about our campaign, every dollar you contributed made tonight's victory possible. And I couldn't be more thankful for your hard work.

Every time we've celebrated a victory, we've celebrated it together. And tonight is no exception. This victory is your victory, this campaign is your campaign, and your support has been the difference between winning and losing.

Thank you so much for making this campaign possible. Let's keep making history together.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Late Update: Just in case there's any doubt as to whether this is a fundraising pitch, the email also includes a link to click on that says, "contribute."

Obama's victory speech in North Carolina, which just concluded, opened with a couple of little jabs at Hillary's prediction that North Carolina would be a "game changer" and at her claim to having won all the "big states."

He also offered congratulations to Hillary for winning in Indiana, though that's looking a good deal less assured than it did a couple hours ago...

You know, some were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election. But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC.

I want to start by congratulating Senator Clinton on her victory in the state of Indiana. And I want to thank the people of North Carolina for giving us a victory in a big state, a swing state, and a state where we will compete to win if I am the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

Full text of Obama's prepared remarks after the jump.

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With 33% reporting, Hillary is ahead of Obama, 57%-43%.

Meanwhile, the exits show that in Indiana Hillary continues to outperform among working class voters:

Barack Obama's troubles with white working class voters continue to cost him dearly at the polls: Hillary Clinton captured the votes of two-thirds of Indiana voters who lack a college degree; the two split the white college-educated vote.

Clinton's push for the gun vote seems to have paid off: half the state's Democratic primary voters are gun owners, according to early exit polls, they supported Clinton over Obama, 61 to 39 percent.

Late Update: It should be noted that Obama got 91% of blacks in North Carolina and 92% of them in Indiana.

Late Update: Hillary's margin is expected to narrow as votes come in from the area near Chicago and from Indianapolis.

As noted below, the exits reveal intense polarization in the Dem electorate. CNN has a detailed breakdown of these numbers:

* Half of Hillary backers in Indiana wouldn't support Obama in a general elex against McCain, compared to a third of Obama backers who wouldn't back Hillary.

* It's worse in North Carolina: There, only 45% of Hillary supporters say they'd back Obama against McCain, compared to 59% of Obama backers who'd vote for Hillary.

These numbers obviously reflect the white-hot passions of the moment, and they're much higher in these states on the eve of Dem primary voting than they are in the Dem electorate as a whole. But there's no denying that they represent a pretty grim starting place for Dems as they look ahead to the coming confrontation with McCain.

The early exits show:

* Seventeen percent in Indiana and 14% in North Carolina decided in last three days.

* The economy is the major driving issue, with 65% In Indiana saying it was the most important issue, and 60% saying the same in North Carolina. Unsurprisingly, Hillary won among these voters in Indiana, and Obama won among them in NC.

* Voters in both states pretty much split evenly on the question of whether Wright was important in their vote.

* More voters blamed Hillary for negative campaigning -- 63% of Indiana voters and 67 % of North Carolina voters thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. Only 43 % in Indiana and 40% in North Carolina thought the reverse.

Meanwhile, Marc Ambinder looks at some more numbers and concludes that "the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels."

We'll be blogging the results tonight right here. All the polls in Indiana will be closed by 7 P.M., and in North Carolina they'll be closed by 7:30.

Late Update: A detailed breakdown of the numbers showing Dem polarization is here.

So reports the Tribune-Star:

TERRE HAUTE -- Indiana State Police swept Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama's Terre Haute campaign headquarters on Wabash Avenue this afternoon following an alleged call to a WTHI Channel 10 reporter claiming to have placed a bomb there and at six other Indiana locations.

Campaign workers were allowed back inside to continue their voter calling once police determined it was safe.

Barack Obama has some good news in the early updates coming out of Indiana. The clerk in Marion county (Indianapolis and the surrounding area) says turnout has been more like a general election than a typical primary.

If it were to occur that the Indianapolis area's turnout was disproportionately high compared to the rest of the state, Barack Obama could potentially make up a lot of ground on Hillary Clinton.

And here's some news about the turnout in North Carolina:

• Turnout is also massively high here, with state officials predicting that the Democratic turnout could reach 50% by the end of the day.

• In North Carolina, 85% of unaffiliated voters have been asking for Democratic ballots.

• Any aspiring "Limbaugh Democrats" who are already registered as Republicans in North Carolina will hit a wall today -- state law allows registered independents to vote in any primary, but voters who are pre-registered in one party can't cross over.

• A note of caution from Avi Zenilman: "Also, if and when raw early exit poll numbers leak, readers are advised to ignore them, and if not that, note that the unweighted numbers have tended to overstate Obama's performance."

Today is the big day in Indiana and North Carolina, with primaries set to determine whether Barack Obama can end the nomination fight or if Hillary Clinton will be able to sow enough doubts to keep the clock running.

One likely scenario, as we pointed out yesterday, is that Obama could win North Carolina and Clinton take Indiana by similar margins -- by itself a near-wash, but in effect a victory for Obama.

The first polls close tonight in Indiana at 6 p.m. ET, with the the last polls there closing at 7 p.m. ET. Polls close in all of North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Late Update: The candidates' schedules are a good indication of where they feel the most confident -- Obama will be in Raleigh for his election night rally, while Clinton will spend the night in Indianapolis.

The final Zogby tracking polls for today's primaries show Barack Obama expanding his lead in North Carolina, and quite possibly building up steam in Indiana, too. The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 51% (+3)
Clinton 37% (-3)

Sample size: 643 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.9%

Indiana
Obama 45% (+1)
Clinton 43% (+1)

Sample size: 644 likely primary votes, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.9%

From Zogby's analysis: "The overall Obama advantage in Indiana -- though statistically insignificant -- comes after another strong day of polling Monday. The one-day total, which comprises about half of the two-day tracking poll sample, saw Obama winning 47% support to Clinton's 41%."

The final survey of Indiana from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack Obama getting some last-minute momentum in this key state, but with Hillary Clinton still ahead. The results, compared to last week:

Clinton 51% (+1)
Obama 46% (+4)

Sample size: 831 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3.4%

From the pollster's analysis: "Hillary Clinton is probably going to win Indiana. But more than likely it will be by a smaller margin than the one Obama wins by in North Carolina, which means the nomination will be just two states closer to Obama's hands."

So what will happen tomorrow in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries?

If you look at the totality of all the polls thus far, they suggest that in terms of both the pledged del count and popular vote, an Obama win in North Carolina will be nearly canceled out by a corresponding Hillary victory in Indiana -- meaning the whole night could end up being more or less a wash.

This isn't to say that Obama won't come out on top. If the current average of polls holds up, he'll likely net gains in both the pledged del and popular vote count, thanks to North Carolina's greater overall population. But if you project out the size of the victories based on current polls, it looks as if his net gains in both categories could be negligible.

The polls have shown Hillary's overall lead in Indiana to be in the mid-single digits. But some polls suggest that late deciders will break her way, and precedent suggests the same, given that this happened in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. So let's assume a 55%-45% win for Hillary in Indiana.

Meanwhile, Obama leads in North Carolina by almost ten, so let's assume Obama will win that state by a similar margin of 10 points.

If that happens, our calculations suggest that Obama will walk away with a slight edge for the night of roughly 95 pledged delegates to Hillary's 92. That's because Indiana has 72 delegates, which would roughly break down to 40 for Hillary and 32 for Obama. And North Carolina has 115 delegates, which would roughly break down to 63 for Obama and 52 for Hillary.

What about the popular vote? Going by Chuck Todd's projections for the total popular votes in these two states, Obama -- assuming a roughly 10-point margin in both states -- would gain a net popular vote victory for the night of about 60,000 votes.

In short, the night could end with little change in the delegate or popular vote margins between the two Dems. This would allow Hillary to argue that the contest should continue, and enable her to keep sowing doubts with the super-dels by asking why he can't "close the deal."

But this would also bring Obama that much closer to the nomination by making it that much harder for Hillary to ever reach 2,025 delegates -- while bringing himself closer to that magic number.

The latest polls, along with a poll-of-polls bottom line, after the jump.

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Hillary goes up in Indiana and North Carolina with yet another negative spot hitting Obama for not supporting the gas tax holiday...

"Barack Obama wants you to keep paying; $8 billion in all," the ad's narrator says. "Hillary is the one who gets it."

It quotes a voter saying: "Hillary Clinton is the candidate that is going to fight for working people."

In purely political terms, Hillary's gas tax holiday has never really been about gas tax relief itself. Rather, it's real goal was to implicitly make the case -- by suggesting she would take some kind of action, however dubious on the merits -- that she's the candidate who's in touch with voters' economic distress.

Indeed, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin insisted recently that the campaign's internal polling showed that this message was getting through.

Separately, on the conference call earlier today, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson was asked if the campaign would continue hitting the gas tax theme. He said they would for the foreseeable future. So get ready for lots more of this.

Full ad script after the jump.

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The newest Suffolk University poll of Indiana gives Hillary Clinton a single-digit lead here, with a lot now depending on how the undecideds break:

Clinton 49%
Obama 43%

Sample size: 600 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

A key number from the internals: Obama's favorable-unfavorable rating stands at 58%-29%, compared to Clinton's 53%-36% -- a sign that some of the remaining undecideds in this survey could break somewhat for Obama.

The latest Zogby tracking poll shows Barack Obama's lead in North Carolina holding steady in the high single digits, and unlike other pollsters also gives Obama a narrow but shaky edge in Indiana.

The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 48% (+0)
Clinton 40% (+1)

Sample size: 624 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.0%

Indiana
Obama 44% (+1)
Clinton 42% (+1)

Sample size: 636 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.0%

From the pollster's analysis: "While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clinton appears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yet undecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they were leaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge."

In a sign that the negativity in the Democratic race might be ebbing a bit, Hillary Clinton has two new ads for Indiana that don't skewer Barack Obama.

The first ad shows Hillary talking about all the people she's met throughout the state, and then shows some of them talking about the economic problems they've faced:

"America is desperate for economic leadership," this next ad declares. "But we've come back before, and we'll do it again. All it takes is a president who knows how."

Obama goes up on the air in Indiana and North Carolina with a third gas tax ad, this one pushing back against Hillary's last-minute ad on Friday hitting him on the issue...

The ad slams the gas tax holiday as "bogus" and a "gimmick," and says that "experts say it'll just boost oil industry profits." The ad also says this:

Clinton aides admit it won't do much for you, but would help her politically.

The Obama campaign says that this is a reference to the following in a recent Washington Post article:

Clinton aides think that even if the measure is a questionable way to reduce gas prices, it allows the candidate to bash oil companies and cast her opponent against an idea that has political appeal.

That's a paraphrase of anonymous quotes, though to my knowledge the Clinton campaign hasn't disavowed this.

This morning's Zogby tracking polls give Barack Obama a steady lead of nine points in North Carolina, and even a slight two-point edge in Indiana, within the margin of error there.

The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 48% (+2)
Clinton 39% (+2)

Sample size: 600 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.1%

Indiana
Obama 43% (+0)
Clinton 41% (-1)

Sample size: 595 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4.1%