Big news here: CBS and NBC have now projected that Barack Obama has won the former reliably-red state of Indiana, which last voted Democratic in the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.
With 99% of precincts reporting, Obama has edged out McCain 50%-49%, with a raw vote margin of about 23,000 votes.
This is a state that voted 60%-39% for George W. Bush in 2004. To say this is a watershed is a profound understatement.
Democrats are cheered by early numbers showing that Obama holds a healthy lead in Vigo County, a place that one Dem described to us as "the most reliable bellwether county in the country."
"Vigo has only been wrong on president twice since 1892," this Dem enthuses.
A story in the Indy Star concurs, adding that of the most reliable bellwhether counties in the country, Vego "has voted closest to the national margin."
Right now, in Vigo County, Obama is up 57%-42%, with 80% reporting.
More numbers coming.
The final polls coming in from Indiana and Virginia, two state that haven't voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide but where the Obama campaign has aggressively competed, show these states going down to the wire, with a better picture for Obama in Virginia:
• Indiana: Public Policy Polling (D) gives Obama a one-point lead, 49%-48%, compared to a 48%-46% Obama edge two weeks ago. Zogby has McCain up by five points, 49%-44%, compared to a 50%-44% McCain lead a week ago.
• Virginia: PPP has Obama up by six points, 52%-46%, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead a week ago. Zogby has Obama up by six points, 51%-45%, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead a week ago. And Rasmussen has Obama up 51%-47%, unchanged from a week ago.
If Obama picks up either of these states, which Republican have been able to count on winning for 44 years, it could potentially signal an Electoral College landslide.
A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:
• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.
• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.
• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.
• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.
All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.
The newest polls show tight races in some key swing states -- with two separate polls confirming a close race in Indiana:
• Indiana: Obama is up 46%-45% in a new Selzer poll, and it's a tied race of 47%-47% according to a Research 2000 poll released last night. Obama was up 47%-44% in a Selzer poll from a month and a half ago, and Research 2000 had Obama up 48%-47% the day before yesterday.
• Colorado: Marist has Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key state is that Obama has won the early vote 59%-41%, with a 46%-46% tie among the remaining likely electorate. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Marist has Obama up 51%-47%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison. The polls in Virginia right now are split between those who say Obama is narrowly ahead and those who say he's way ahead.
Also, the new Fox News national poll has Obama ahead 47%-44%, with a ±3% margin of error, a much closer lead than the 49%-40% advantage from a week ago.
A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:
• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.
• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.
• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).
• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.
• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.
The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.
An Indiana reader reports to us that John McCain is now up on the air on network TV in the state -- a significant development, because it suggests that McCain is being forced to spend valuable cash on defense in yet another red state as time runs out.
Tim Horst, a church musician, says he saw McCain's "Joe the Plumber" ad -- which attacks Obama on taxes -- running on WEVV, a CBS affiliate in southern Indiana, for the first time this morning. That's network TV, not national cable, so the spot represents a buy in the state.
Previously, the Republican National Committee had been advertising Indiana, but the McCain campaign hadn't spent any money here.
The Indiana spot is the latest sign that McCain is shifting cash out of blue toss-up states and into red tossups or even reliably red states. As we reported here yesterday, McCain is scaling down his ad buys in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Colorado, and upping them in Virginia and Florida -- and, now, Indiana. Here's the spot:
Neither WEVV nor the McCain campaign had a comment. We'll bring you more on the size of the buy if we can get it.
McCain Ad: An Obama Crisis "Doesn't Have To Happen"
The new McCain ad, which will air in key states, uses Joe Biden's gaffe about how Barack Obama will be tested in an international crisis, so as to warn voters that Obama is too much of a risk -- with some truly incredible imagery:
Images flash across the screen of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hugo Chavez, crowds of chanting Arabs, tanks, and gun-toting militia-men. To which the announcer replies: "It doesn't have to happen. Vote McCain."
The Highest-Paid McCain Staffer: Palin's Makeup Artist!
The New York Times reports that Amy Strozzi, the traveling makeup artist for Sarah Palin, is in fact the top-paid staffer on the campaign. Strozzi was paid $22,800 during just the first two weeks of October, compared to only $12,500 for top foreign-policy adviser Randy Scheunemann.
Obama Off The Trail; Michelle In Ohio; Biden In Virginia And West Virginia
Barack Obama is off the campaign trail today, visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Instead, Michelle Obama is campaigning on his behalf in Ohio, with an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in Columbus and a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Akron. Joe Biden is holding a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Charleston, West Virginia, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Danville, Virginia, and a 6:45 p.m. ET rally in Martinsville, Virginia.
Hillary Campaigning For Obama In Colorado
Hillary Clinton is also campaigning on Barack Obama's behalf today, with a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Aurora, Colorado.
McCain In Colorado, Palin In Pennsylvania And Missouri
John McCain is campaigning today in Colorado, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Denver, a small-business event at 4:30 p.m. ET in Colorado Springs, and an 8 p.m. ET rally in Durango. Sarah Palin is delivering a policy speech on special-needs children at 9 a.m. ET at the Pittsburgh Airport Marriott, and will then hold a 1 p.m. ET rally in Springfield, Missouri. Then at 7:30 p.m. ET, she's scheduled to drop the ceremonial first puck at a hockey game in St. Louis.
Poll: Obama Ahead In Indiana
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-45% in Indiana, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% McCain lead from three weeks ago. The most recent three polls of this race now give Obama the lead in a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide.
Palin Denies The $150K Clothing Story
In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Sarah Palin denied the story that the RNC had paid $150,000 for her campaign wardrobe -- contrary to the RNC's own admission of it, and their line that the clothes will be donated to charity. "That whole thing is just, bad!" said Palin. "Oh, if people only knew how frugal we are."
Whoa. We've just obtained a McCain campaign robo-slime call that slams Dems as "dangerously weak on crime" and hits Barack Obama and his "liberal allies" for having a "disturbing history of coddling criminals."
Worse, the call even insinuates that Obama isn't inclined to protect your kids -- in fact, the call directly alleges that Obama has voted against "protecting children from danger."
A reader in Wisconsin sends in the audio, and a second reader in Indiana reports hearing the call:
Script:
Hello, I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC, because Democrats are dangerously weak on crime. Barack Obama has voted against tougher penalties for street gangs, drug-related crimes, and protecting children from danger. Barack Obama and his liberal allies have a disturbing history of coddling criminals. so we can't trust their judgment to keep our families safe. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866 558-5591. Thank you, bye
It's unclear what the bit about not protecting kids is a reference to.
This is the third call we've documented today: There was one starring Rudy Giuliani, who suggested that Obama opposes jailing murderers and rapists. And there was a second hitting Obama over the "bitter" comments.
In other words, another huge wave of McCain robo-slime has been unleashed.
For the first time in a month, a new poll gives Barack Obama a slim lead in the very red state of Indiana, which hasn't voted Dem since 1964 and where George W. Bush won a 60%-39% landslide in 2004.
The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±2.6% margin of error. As usual, the economy is the driving force here, with 60% of voters saying it's their most important issue, and this group going to Obama 59%-34%.
Obama advisers insist that they have a real shot at an upset here, partly because McCain started organizing on the ground so late here -- Obama has been here ever since the primary, and McCain has had nearly no presence at all, in part taking it for granted and partly relying on the GOP governor's re-election campaign to do his GOTV for him.
Looks like John McCain is playing defense in another state that hasn't voted for a Dem for president since LBJ's landslide in 1964. From the Indianapolis Star...
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president, will hold a rally in the Indianapolis area Friday...Palin's visit will come a little more than a week after McCain's opponent, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, held a rally that was attended by about 21,000 people at the State Fairgrounds. Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, was in Southern Indiana in September.
The Real Clear Politics polling average has McCain up by a scant 3.8 points in the state. Multiple observers have rated Indiana a toss-up, but the real tell is that Palin is now heading there. With time running out, that's one less rally Palin can do in a "real" battleground state.
Tonight: The Second Presidential Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain are meeting tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, for their second debate. The debate will be conducted in a town-hall format, and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.
Obama Ad: McCain "Out Of Ideas, Out Of Touch"
The Obama campaign has this new ad, set to air on national cable, saying that John McCain is trying to change the subject away from the economy with his smears against Barack Obama:
"He's out of ideas, out of touch, and running out of time," the announcer says. "But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down."
McCain Ad: Obama "Hypocritical" On Smear Ads
This new McCain ad, set to air nationally, calls Barack Obama a hypocrite for complaining about misleading TV ads, only to run misleading ads of his own:
"Barack Obama. He promised better," the announcer says. "He lied."
Polls: Obama Up In Battleground States
A new set of CNN polls shows Barack Obama running strong in four key swing states: Obama is up 53%-45% in New Hampshire, 50%-47% in Ohio, 51%-46% in Wisconsin, and is tied with John McCain 49%-49% in North Carolina. The only real bright spot for McCain in this batch is Indiana, where he has a 51%-46% lead.
Michelle Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Michelle Obama will hold a rally today in Jacksonville, North Carolina, set to begin at 1:30 p.m. ET. Joe Biden is still off the campaign trail for today, as his family mourns the death of his mother-in-law.
Palin Touring Florida And North Carolina
Sarah Palin is continuing her tour of the South, with stops today in several Republican stronghold areas within key battleground states. Palin has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Pensacola, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina.
Hagel's Wife To Formally Endorse Obama
Lilibet Hagel, the wife of GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, will formally endorse Barack Obama at a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia. On the one hand, it's been a matter of public record that Mrs. Hagel has donated to Obama -- but this will be viewed by many in the media as a sign that Sen. Hagel himself is supporting Obama.
Anti-Obama Author Detained In Kenya
Jerome Corsi, author of the anti-Obama smear book The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality, has been detained by authorities in Kenya as he set out to conduct a book tour there. Authorities there say Corsi does not have a work permit for his tour.
Ben Smith reports that the Republican National Committee is going to sink some six-figure advertising cash into Indiana, a state where Obama's been making a heavy play.
With its own polling presumably confirming public polls showing Obama seriously competitive in Indiana, which hasn't gone Democratic since 1964, the Republicans are being stretched thinner than they would like. Meanwhile, elements of Obama's attempt to expand the map appear to be succeeding, at least by a preliminary measure: He's making the GOP spend money.
One other quick point: The McCain bounce after the convention and the Palin announcement appeared to manifest itself by shrinking the map: Obama pulled staff out of North Dakota, and pulled his ads in Georgia. But, in another measure of how quickly the McCain bounce evaporated amid the economic meltdown, to be replaced by an Obama surge, we're seeing very real signs that the map has expanded again. Obama's gaining in Virginia, has taken the lead in Colorado, and the Repubs are panicked about Indiana.
Not a bad place to be as we head into the debates.
Late Update: Our own poll tracker shows that Obama has actually taken the lead in Colorado. I've edited the above to reflect that.
In yet another sign of Barack Obama's surge in the polls, CQ has upgraded their ratings for him in three states that have been cornerstones of the Obama campaign's strategy to expand the electoral map into states where Dems don't usually compete:
• Indiana: Previously rated "Republican Favored," now "Leans Republican." The last time this state voted Democratic was in the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide.
• North Carolina: Previously rated "Republican Favored," now "Leans Republican." The last time this state voted Democratic was 1976, when Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son.
• Virginia: Previously rated "Leans Republican," is now "No Clear Favorite." Like Indiana, the last time this state voted Dem was in 1964.
From CQ's analysis: "Though the 'bounce' in polls enjoyed by Republican candidate John McCain following his nominating convention early this month briefly called this strategy into doubt, Obama's recent resurgence to a lead in most national polls -- and gains in many state polls -- has revived his party's hopes of winning in states lost by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004."
McCain Ad: Obama Wants More Taxes And Spending
John McCain has this new attack ad out, set to air nationwide, depicting Obama as a big spender who will raise your taxes:
Missing from the ad, of course, is any mention of the Republican Party's spending record in Washington, or Sarah Palin's recorded of raising both taxes and spending through the roof back in Alaska.
Obama In New Mexico, Biden In Ohio
Barack Obama is campaigning today in the swing state of New Mexico, where recent polling has mostly given him the lead, with a rally in Española. Joe Biden is campaigning in Ohio, where most polling has John McCain ahead, with stops in Canton, Akron and Youngstown.
McCain And Palin In Iowa And Wisconsin Today
John McCain and Sarah Palin are again campaigning together today. First up is a rally this morning in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and this evening they'll be holding another rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Poll: Obama Up In New Mexico
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 52%-44% lead in New Mexico, beyond the ±3.9% margin of error. This state just barely voted for Al Gore in 2000, then narrowly switched to George W. Bush in 2004.
Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Indiana
A new Selzer poll gives Barack Obama a 47%-44% lead in Indiana, with a ±4% margin of error, a surprising number for a state that hasn't voted Dem since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. Most other recent polls have John McCain ahead here, but who knows, it could be the first sign of movement back towards the Democrats now that McCain's convention bounce is over.
Obama Ad: We Need Social Security, McCain Wants To Privatize It
Barack Obama has this unannounced attack ad running against John McCain in Michigan, tying McCain to George W. Bush, the troubled economy, and Bush's efforts to privatize Social Security:
"The Bush-McCain privatization plan," the announcer says. "Can you really afford more of the same?"
Author of 2002 Pro-McCain Book: He's Lost Me
Another formerly pro-McCain writer has turned on him in light of campaign developments. "McCain's recent conduct of his campaign," writes Elizabeth Drew, author of the 2002 book Citizen McCain, "his willingness to lie repeatedly (including in his acceptance speech) and to play Russian roulette with the vice-presidency, in order to fulfill his long-held ambition - has reinforced my earlier, and growing, sense that John McCain is not a principled man."
A new round of CNN swing state polls holds encouraging news for Obama: It finds that McCain's waning convention bounce hasn't translated into leads in key states, and indeed, Obama is leading in two key states and has pulled into a tie in Florida.
• In Florida, it's a 48%-48% tie. Most other polls recently have given the lead to McCain here, but this could be evidence of a shift happening.
• In Indiana, McCain has a close but seemingly secure 51%-45% lead, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• In North Carolina, McCain has a bare edge of 48%-47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error.
• In Ohio, we have a rare poll with Obama ahead: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, with a ±3% margin of error. The last eight polls before this one have put McCain up. CNN's last poll from two weeks ago also had Obama up by a two-point margin.
• In Wisconsin, which has gone Dem by less than one point in the past two elections, Obama has a 50%-47% lead, with a ±3% margin of error.
Four of these five states voted twice for President Bush, and have generally been GOP-leaning -- but McCain currently only has any kind of halfway-decent lead in one of them, according to these polls. McCain's convention bounce seems to have run out, putting us back where we were before the two conventions: A very close race all across the country.
Paris Hilton's Mother Objects To McCain Ad
Paris Hilton's mother Kathy Hilton -- who has donated $2,300 to John McCain -- has responded to McCain's new ad using her daughter as a means of attacking Barack Obama. "It is a complete waste of the money John McCain's contributors have donated to his campaign," Mrs. Hilton writes for the Huffington Post.
Both Candidates Off The Trail Today
Neither Barack Obama nor John McCain have any public events scheduled for today. But don't think they're taking the day off: They'll likely be spending today actively strategizing and/or raising money.
McCain: We'll Respond If Obama Accuses Us Of Racism
John McCain made it clear that his campaign will continue to fire back at Barack Obama if they are accused of race-baiting against him. "We're not gonna allow racism to come into this campaign in any form," McCain told ABC News. "And so I'm gonna respond if it comes up again."
Lieberman: Obama "A Good Young Man"
Appearing today on Meet The Press, Joe Lieberman defended the Paris/Britney ad as "cute," and said the intention to raise questions about Obama's readiness for the presidency. "This is a good young man," Lieberman said. "Is he ready to lead or as ready as John McCain? The answer is no."
Obama Defends Shift On Drilling
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Barack Obama defended his shift on offshore drilling -- from opposing it to supporting a larger energy compromise proposal that includes it: "If we can come up with a genuine bipartisan compromise, in which I have to accept some things that I don't like, or the Democrats have to accept some things that they don't like in exchange for actually moving us in the direction of actual energy independence, then that's something I'm open to."
Obama's Long Indiana Stop Has Press Wondering About Bayh For VP
Press speculation seems to be growing about Evan Bayh as Barack Obama's running mate, due to an extra-long campaign stop in Indiana this week. Obama campaign spokesman Robert Gibbs told NBC that this is simply evidence that Indiana is a competitive state this year.
Report: McCain Team Vetting Eric Cantor For VP
The Associated Press reports that the McCain campaign is actively vetting Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor for vice president. Picking the ultra-conservative and Jewish Cantor would potentially help McCain among Jewish voters as well as right-wing activists -- and set up an interesting scenario if Barack Obama were to pick Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, giving the campaign two tickets where the running mates hail from the same state.
Planned Parenthood Ad Hits McCain On Birth Control
Planned Parenthood Action Fund is launching this new ad against John McCain in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin, plus the D.C. media market. The ad bluntly tells women voters that they can't trust John McCain on the issue of birth control, playing back the video from when McCain couldn't answer a question about requiring insurance companies to cover it:
Obama Discussing National Security In Deep-Red Indiana
Barack Obama is spending today in Indiana, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 but where a recent SurveyUSA poll gave him an improbable one-point lead. He will be joined at Purdue University by Senator Evan Bayh and former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, both viewed in the press as potential running mates, for a "Summit on Confronting 21st Century Threats."
McCain Pitching School Vouchers To The NAACP
John McCain will be speaking today to the NAACP, a venue where Republicans haven't done well and where Barack Obama was already very well received with his own speech. McCain will use this as an opportunity to reach out to African-American voters on education reform: "If I am elected president, school choice for all who want it, an expansion of Opportunity Scholarships, and alternative certification for teachers will all be part of a serious agenda of education reform."
Poll: Obama Ahead, Both Candidates Are Flip-Floppers
The new CBS/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a 45%-39% lead over John McCain among registered voters, a margin unchanged from the 48%-42% lead he had a month ago. Meanwhile, both candidates have come to be viewed as flip-floppers: Barack Obama is seen as having changed his views in order to get elected by 56% of voters, and 51% say the same thing about John McCain.
McCain Cites "Czechoslovakia" Again
For the second time in two days, John McCain yesterday discussed his foreign policy concerns by referring to Czechoslovakia -- a country that hasn't existed for 15 years. On the bright side, he did at least refer to Russia's interactions with Czechoslovakia, and not the Soviet Union.
Pro-War Group Getting Involved In Senate Races
Freedom's Watch, the right-wing 501(c)(4) group that has set out to further a pro-Iraq War agenda, is now targeting Senate races under the direction of longtime GOP operative Tony Feather. On the one hand, their intervention into Senate races will be a welcome assist to the under-funded NRSC -- but on the other hand, their record in special elections this past cycle was hardly a success, with the GOP losing two deep-red seats in the South.
Al Franken Gets Long-shot Primary Challenger
Trial lawyer Priscilla Lord Faris, scion of a prominent Minnesota Democratic family, has announced that she will run in the September primary for Senate against Al Franken, telling Election Central that his campaign is "floundering" and something must be done. A Minnesota Dem source was highly skeptical that Faris has the time to build up any sufficient organization or name recognition that would pose a serious threat.
Obama To Promote His Version Of Faith-Based Social Programs
Barack Obama will be speaking today in Ohio, where he will deliver a speech calling for an expansion of government cooperation with faith-based programs. The Obama campaign's e-mail to reporters says that religious charity programs would be held to all civil rights standards in hiring and who they serve, while the Associated Press adds that religious organizations would still be able to discriminate in non-taxpayer funded areas.
McCain Speaking To Sheriffs Today
John McCain will be speaking this morning to the National Sheriffs' Association conference in Indianapolis -- possibly a sign that his campaign views Obama as a serious threat to carry the red state of Indiana, or that he aims to pitch himself as a Nixon-style "law and order" candidate. He will then travel to Mexico and Colombia, where he will likely promote the principles of free trade.
NRA To Go After Obama This Year
A right-wing group is set to mount a major offensive against Barack Obama: Namely, the National Rifle Association. The NRA is planning to spend $40 million on the presidential campaign, with $15 million on ads portraying Obama as a threat to Second Amendment Rights.
McCain Takes Money From Swift-Boat Backers
USA Today points out this morning that John McCain has had no problem accepting $70,000 in donations this cycle from backers of the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth in 2004, despite his condemnation of the group at the time. On top of this, it should be noted that the McCain camp has included Bud Day, an active participant in Swift Boat commercials, in their "Truth Squad" to go after Wesley Clark's criticism of McCain's national security credentials.
Rasmussen: McCain Ahead In Florida
A new Rasmussen poll of Florida gives John McCain the lead in this large swing state. The numbers: McCain 48%, Obama 41%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Other recent polls have put Obama ahead, leaving the situation ambiguous.
Poll: Dem Ahead In Deep-Red House Seat In Kentucky
A new SurveyUSA poll suggests that Democrats could be poised to pick up a deep-red Kentucky House district that voted 65% for President Bush in 2004. In the district of retiring GOPer Ron Lewis, Democratic state Sen. David Boswell has a 47%-44% edge over Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie, within the ±4.3% margin of error.
Now this is something. A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Barack Obama is tied with John McCain in Indiana, a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.
The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. For some perspective, George W. Bush won this state by a whopping 60%-39% margin in 2004.
The Obama campaign made news a few days ago by sending a top staffer to this red state, and Indiana has also been included in their first big ad campaign of the general election.
Meanwhile, a separate SurveyUSA poll also puts Obama narrowly ahead in New Mexico by 49%-46%, within the ±4.3% margin of error in a traditional swing state that went for Gore in 2000 and then Bush in 2004.
Does the Obama campaign really believe Indiana is in play?
Team Obama has assigned one of its most valued campaign staffers to the state, reports the Indianapolis Star. The staffer, Emily Parcell, was political director for Obama in Iowa, where the Illinois Senator secured a huge win that essentially put him on the path to the nomination.
The Obama campaign says it shows they're taking the state seriously. However, as Taegan Goddard notes, political experts think that the Obama team doesn't really believe this and is merely messing with the minds of the McCain team.
The last two times Indiana went Democratic were during LBJ's 1964 landslide win and FDR's 1936 lopsided win. However, the Obama team is running a general election ad in the state -- the first Dem to do so in memory.
Ultimately this is really about the huge disparity in resources here. The Obama team can do more than merely say they believe they have a real shot at states like Indiana. They can afford to act like they believe it, too.
Late Update: A commenter below puts it well: "Is it really in play? We won't know without playing there. That's the whole point: only one way to find out." And they have the resources to find out -- that's the real key.
It's official: Hillary will hang on to a victory, such as it is, in Indiana. MSNBC and Fox just called it for her.
With 99% reporting, Hillary wins it 51%-49%.
Given the magnitude of Obama's North Carolina victory, this falls far short of the split decision that the Hillary camp was hoping, at a minimum, to achieve tonight.
And it's not even a big enough win for the Hillary campaign to use in continuing to try to raise doubts about Obama's ability to compete in big states, either.
Right now, the pledged del count overall, from both states tonight, breaks down this way: Obama gets 80; Hillary gets 77; and 30 are still up in the air, more of which are likely to go to him.
Upshot: Just as tonight's popular vote gains for Obama effectively wiped out Hillary's gains from Pennsylvania, so, too, will his pledged del gains likely wipe out hers from the Keystone State.
Hillary has routinely sent out rousing fundraising emails just after her electoral victories in order to squeeze excited supporters for yet another round of contributions.
But the fundraising email she sent out tonight after her Indiana "win" -- which is in doubt as we speak -- is revealingly muted, even subdued...
Tonight's victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference.Every call you made, every friend you spoke to about our campaign, every dollar you contributed made tonight's victory possible. And I couldn't be more thankful for your hard work.
Every time we've celebrated a victory, we've celebrated it together. And tonight is no exception. This victory is your victory, this campaign is your campaign, and your support has been the difference between winning and losing.
Thank you so much for making this campaign possible. Let's keep making history together.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Late Update: Just in case there's any doubt as to whether this is a fundraising pitch, the email also includes a link to click on that says, "contribute."
