GOP: Mailer Attacking Our Guy As Confederate-Friendly Is False -- Kind Of

The NRCC is crying foul over a Democratic mailer against Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, the Republican nominee in today's nationally-watched Mississippi special election, which accuse Davis of having offered up his suburban Memphis town as a new home for a statue of Confederate Gen. Nathan Bedford Forrest, the founder of the Ku Klux Klan:

(Click images to enlarge.)

Davis spokesman Ted Prill characterized the mailer as "11-hour gutter politics," and said the allegation isn't true. Prill explained that when Memphis was getting rid of Confederate statutes under pressure from civil rights groups three years ago, Davis had simply offered to accept the statue of Confederate President Jefferson Davis -- but not the one of Forrest.

"False accusations and race-baiting politics have no place in our public discourse, and if Democrats want to continue to pursue this line of attack, then it will backfire in November," said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain.

GOP House Candidate: "Sometimes A Leader Has To Step Forward" To Spread Abortion Story About Opponent

We've obtained a copy of the campaign e-mail sent out to a reported 60,000 people by House candidate Kevin Mannix (R-OR), in which he re-distributes a 2006 e-mail accusing his primary opponent Mike Erickson of impregnating a younger woman and paying for her abortion in 2000.

The 2006 e-mail, written by a friend of the woman in question, doesn't hold back, accusing Erickson of "having wild parties involving cocaine use on his house boat," and being the sort of man who campaigns on family values but secretly drops a woman ten years his junior off at an abortion clinic, hands her some cash and then drives away.

Erickson has categorically denied the allegations contained in the woman's email.

"Sometimes a leader has to step forward and take responsibility for delivering difficult news," Mannix said in his email. He then added, "I cannot in good conscience allow this election to proceed without being open with you as to this sad situation which has been presented to me."

The full text of both emails is available after the jump.

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Clinton Camp: Obama Shouldn't Get Away With Writing Off West Virginia Loss

With Hillary Clinton simultaneously expected to win big today in West Virginia but lose overall for the nomination, the campaign has sent out a memo insisting that Barack Obama shouldn't be allowed to set low expectations here.

"Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy."

Full memo after the jump.

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When Republicans Attack (Each Other)

It doesn't get much nastier than this among Republicans. In a tightly fought GOP primary for a swing House seat in Oregon, one candidate is now openly accusing the other of paying for a younger woman's abortion.

Yesterday the campaign of former state Rep. Kevin Mannix sent out a 2006 e-mail in which a woman accused businessman Mike Erickson of impregnating her friend and then bringing her to an abortion clinic in 2000.

The two women first tried to air the complaint during Erickson's 2006 run for the seat, but declined further interviews until now.

Erickson is denying the story in the strongest terms: "These unsubstantiated and untrue allegations are from an e-mail from 2006 that no news media reported at the time. They are just as untrue today as they were then."

For his part, Mannix insists he didn't really want to talk about this. "Rarely have I been confronted with such a difficult decision as to whether to proceed with something of this nature," Mannix wrote in his letter. "But what is on the line here is the character of the person who will represent you in Congress."

The seat is currently held by Democrat Darlene Hooley, whose retirement could put at risk a district that voted narrowly for President Bush in 2004. Erickson has led in polls of the GOP primary.

Obama Gets Four More Super-Delegates

Barack Obama has made further progress on the super-delegate front this morning, picking up four to Hillary Clinton's zero thus far today.

The Obama camp rolled out the endorsement of former DNC Chair Roy Romer on a conference call with reporters this morning. Obama has also picked up three others: New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who was previously selected as an uncommitted add-on delegate for Louisiana; District of Columbia party chairwoman Anita Bonds; and Indiana Congressman Joe Donnelly, whose district voted narrowly for Hillary Clinton in the primary.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the Obama campaign's conference call:


Polls Give Obama Big Lead In Oregon

With the Oregon primary a week away, two new polls show Obama holding a commanding lead:

Portland Tribune
Obama 55%
Clinton 35%

Sample size: 400 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4.8%.

SurveyUSA
Obama 54%
Clinton 43%

Sample size: 615 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

The Obama camp expects that on May 20, they shall have secured a majority of pledged delegates for the whole cycle.

Obama Expected To Lose Big In Today's West Virginia Primary

Although Barack Obama is now widely expected to be the Democratic nominee, the campaign is in for a bit of embarrassment tonight in what is likely to be a very bad showing in the West Virginia primary -- indeed, if the polls are accurate, he'll be lucky to get more than 30%:

Clinton 60%, Obama 24% (Suffolk, May 11)

Clinton 66%, Obama 23% (ARG, May 9)

Clinton 56%, Obama 27% (Rasmussen, May 5)

Expect the Clinton campaign to use tonight's result as an argument against Obama's electability, and as evidence that Hillary can reach out to rural working-class voters where Obama can't.

The polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Pledged Delegate For Hillary Switches To Obama

In a further sign that even many Clinton supporters don't see her winning the nomination, another delegate has defected from Hillary Clinton over to Barack Obama -- and in this case it's a pledged delegate, not a super.

Jack B. Johnson, the executive of Prince George's County, Maryland, was elected as a pledged delegate for Hillary in the February 12 primary. However, he now says Obama has won the nomination, and he will support him at the convention: "I cannot in good conscience go to the convention and not support Barack."

ABC/WaPo Poll: Obama Ahead Of McCain

A general election of Barack Obama versus John McCain is in many ways a stark contest of experience versus change -- and change is currently winning, according to the new ABC/Washington Post poll:

Obama 51%
McCain 44%

Sample size: 1,122 adults.
Margin of error: ±3%

For poll questions on different character traits, McCain leads on who has better experience (71%-18%) and who has better knowledge of world affairs (65%-24%). But Obama has big majorities on which candidate would bring needed change to Washington (59%-29%), better personality and temperament (56%-32%), better understands people's problems (54%-35%), and has a clearer vision for the future (54%-34%).

Obama Campaign Seeking Staff For General Election

Help wanted...

The primary may not be over yet (officially), but the Obama campaign is seeking to staff up for the general election. Here's an email, forwarded our way by a source, that was sent out by Obama spokesperson Dan Pfeiffer, soliciting resumes for communications staff for the general:

From: Dan Pfeiffer [mailto:XXXXX]

Sent: Monday, May 12, 2008 5:52 PM

Subject: Resumes and Recommendations


While Barack continues to campaign hard in the upcoming primary states, we have begun collecting resumes for communications staff for the general election. Pls send resumes of friends and colleagues who you would recommend to become part of our organization either in Chicago or in a state to XXXXXX.

Thanks,

Dan Pfeiffer

Contacted for comment, Pfeiffer IMed us this:

We are continuing to compete for every vote and delegate, but we are also preparing for a general election that is right around the corner.

Obama Camp Says They're 150 Delegates From Clinching Nomination

Here's a quick roundup of today's super-delegate action:

Barack Obama has made more progress today on the super-delegate front, extending his newfound super-del lead over Hillary Clinton with four new endorsements versus none for her.

The Obama camp announced the endorsements of Rep. Tom Allen of Maine, the party's candidate for U.S. Senate, Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii, DNC member Dolly Strazar of Hawaii, and Idaho state party chair Keith Roark.

According to the Obama camp's numbers, he is now exactly 150 delegates away from clinching the nomination.

Happy Hour Reading

Okay, it's not quite happy hour yet, but that's something we're willing to be very flexible about here at TPM Election Central. So here's some must-reading...

* Ben Smith has an excellent take-down of the bogus notion that Hillary could have won if only she'd cracked the Obama-struggling-with-blue-collar-whites code earlier. Short version: It's the calendar, stupid.

* Mark Halperin reports that Terry McAuliffe says the Hillary camp has bought airtime in Oregon and Kentucky.

* Big Hillary supporter Chuck Schumer says he's changed his mind about a joint ticket -- he now thinks "they'd be a strong ticket together."

* McClatchy explores a new group that's been set up to push the idea of that joint ticket -- and its connections to Hillary.

* Chris Bowers says that Obama will win the popular vote, and that the "will of the electorate" will have made itself manifestly clear.

* Noam Scheiber reports that Obama campaign insiders are dead set against the idea of retiring Hillary's campaign debt.

* Steve Benen aptly observes that the sparring today between Obama and McCain over what constitutes real support for our veterans is "what campaigns are all about" -- and that it "beats debating pins and pastors."

* Obama is heading to Michigan to start campaigning for the general and to start negotiating a solution to seating the delegation.

AFSCME Official Vows To Put "Real Money" Into Hillary Ads In Remaining States

AFSCME is going to put "real money" behind independent expenditures for ads on Hillary's behalf in remaining Democratic primary states, a union official just confirmed to me.

On Friday I noted that one good gauge of Hillary's continuing support would be to see whether the big third-party groups backing her continue to put money into ads on her behalf -- or whether they suspend such efforts.

An AFSCME official tells me that the union's leadership remains committed to pouring more money into the remaining states.

"Our independent expenditure campaign is going forward, just as our member education efforts are going forward -- full steam ahead," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"We are going to be knocking on doors and making phone calls and doing direct mail and contacting our members in Kentucky and Oregon and Puerto Rico," the official said.

As for ad spending, the official added: "The efforts will be similar to those made in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. We're gonna spend real money." The official declined to say whether real numbers had been agreed upon.

To be sure, it's easy to imagine that these plans might fizzle as super-dels continue to flock to Obama. And it's also easy to imagine AFSCME talking tough in this manner in order to avoid offending the Hillary campaign.

Nonetheless, this is what they're saying now. Bears watching.

Obama Camp: We're Moving On To General Election States Now

Multiple observers have noted today that Obama's schedule is starting to take on a general election feel to it, with stops planned for places like Missouri and South Dakota in the days ahead.

Now Obama spokesperson Bill Burton makes it official, explaining Camp Obama's thinking to Swampland's Karen Tumulty:

"Our schedule reflects the fact that we are still fighting for votes and delegates in the remaining contests, but also that we are going to places that are going to be competitive in the fall. John McCain has gone unchallenged for far too long and we're going to make sure that voters in competitive states know the choice in this election between changing Washington and the third term of George Bush's failed policies that McCain is offering."

Can Gas Prices Help Dems Win House Races? Sure, As Long As Dems Do The Buying

Democratic House candidate Travis Childers -- whose special election tomorrow in Mississippi is being closely watched by national strategists in both parties as a test case for Dems trying to make headway in deep-read districts -- has come up with an interesting way to give some attention to high fuel prices: Holding a campaign event at a gas station, promising up to ten gallons at only $1.25 per gallon to the first 50 motorists to come by and talk with the candidate.

A similar trick was done in an Indiana House primary, with Republican candidate Luke Puckett giving out gasoline for free. Puckett won his primary with 48% in a three-way race.

Obama Hits McCain For Failing To Support Webb's GI Bill

Barack Obama is giving a speech right now on veterans' issues in West Virginia in which he hits John McCain for failing to back Jim Webb's 21st Century version of the GI bill -- a measure that would cover the full cost for veterans to attend a state university.

In the speech, Obama makes a passing reference to Hillary, conceding he'll likely lose West Virginia to her, then pivots to a general election argument, saying that he "couldn't disagree more" with McCain's refusal to support Webb's measure.

Obama proposes to remake the Veterans Administration for the 21st Century and evokes his grandfather's World War II Service. Perhaps most interesting is his description of the maltreatment of returning Vietnam War veterans as "one of the saddest episodes in our history" -- an olive-branch to the right that's in keeping with his larger claim that he's a conciliator and bridge-builder.

Full text of the speech after the jump.

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