Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:
Franken Ad: GOP Ads Lie About Me Being Angry
Al Franken, who has taken the lead in the latest polls of the Minnesota Senate race, has this new one-minute TV ad, showing in detail how a Republican attack ad has twisted around footage of him doing a humorous impersonation of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone in order to make Franken look manic and angry:
"Look familiar?" the announcer says. "That's right. Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better."
Polls: Dems Ahead In Alaska's Congressional Races
A new poll from Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Rep. Don Young (R), both tainted by scandal, trailing their Democratic opponents. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Stevens 49%-45%, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz has a wider lead of 51%-42% over Don Young.
A new round of SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Roll Call, suggests that Democrats are poised to sweep those House races this year that are competitive rematches from 2006.
Some of these races are Democratic gains from 2006, in which candidates defeated Republican incumbents or picked up open seats. Some of them were Republican retentions that year, where the incumbents fended off challengers who are trying again this year. In all seven of these case, the Democrats are winning:
• IL-10: Democrat Dan Seals, who lost a race to GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, may be successful in riding Barack Obama's local coattails. The numbers: Seals 52%, Kirk 44%.
• IN-09: Rep. Baron Hill (D) has faced GOPer Mike Sodrel in every race since 2002. Hill narrowly won in 2002, then Sodrel won in 2004, then Hill came back and defeated Sodrel in 2006. The numbers now: Hill 53%, Sodrel 38%.
• NH-01: Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006, and Bradley never really stopped running. The numbers in this poll: Shea-Porter 50%, Bradley 41%.
• NY-29: Democrat Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former military aide to Wes Clark, narrowly lost to Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in 2006. The current numbers from SurveyUSA: Massa 51%, Kuhl 44%.
• NC-08: Democrat Larry Kissell lost after a recount in 2006 to Rep. Robin Hayes. The new poll: Kissell 49%, Hayes 41%.
• PA-04: Freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D) defeated GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in an upset in 2006, and Hart is trying for a comeback. The new poll: Altmire 54%, Hart 42%.
• WI-08: Democratic physician and businessman Steven Kagen picked up this seat for the Democrats in an open-seat race against then-state House Speaker John Gard, in a 51%-49% race. Gard soon started running again. The new poll: Kagen 54%, Gard 43%.
If these numbers hold up through Election Day, it's going to be a long night for the House Republicans.
The down-ticket races are following the lead of the presidential race -- and getting dirtier and dirtier by the day. Here are the latest developments:
New Coleman Ad: Al Franken Is A Foul-Mouthed Clown
Wow, check out this new attack ad from Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), going after Al Franken's history of using curse words in public. "I'm Norm Coleman, and I approved this message because I thought it was important for you to see it," Coleman says somberly:
"How f______ shameless these people are," Franken says, in video from 2003 with bleeping added to cover up the curse words. "These people are so f______ shameless!"
Late Update: Franken spokeswoman Colleen Murray gave us this comment on the ad: "Norm Coleman says he wants you to see this because what he doesn't want you to see is his record of supporting George Bush nearly 90 percent of the time, selling out to the special interests, and ignoring Minnesota's middle class."
Franken Ad: Coleman Is With Bush On Social Security
Al Franken has this new serious ad on the subject of Social Security, tying Coleman to the very unpopular George W. Bush's proposal to privatize Social Security, and tracing his own concern for the issue to his wife having lived off survivor's benefits as a child when her father died:
Good Government Group Runs Ad Against Stevens -- And Not About Indictment
Campaign Money Watch, a pro-campaign reform group, is playing the considerable sum of $150,000 to run this ad against Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), interestingly avoiding the subject of his indictment and going after his more mundane links to special interests:
Campaign Money Watch Director David Donnelly told us that economic issues like health care are top concerns for Alaskans, and it's important to look beyond just Stevens' more spectacular scandals: "The scandal in politics is not just what is illegal, but what is legally permitted everyday.
Dem Congressman: My Opponent Hurt The District After I Beat Him In '06
Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) is making a serious charge against his opponent, former Congressman Mike Sodrel: That after Hill defeated Sodrel in 2006, Sodrel closed his offices early and made a smooth transition impossible for constituent services cases. In response, Sodrel's campaign has responded that the timing of his office closure was fully within the bounds of federal guidelines.
Dems Pick Replacement Candidate For the Late U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones
In Ohio's 11th Congressional District, Warrensville Heights Mayor Marcia Fudge will replace the late U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones on the Nov. 4 ballot. A heavily democratic district, Tubbs Jones won 83% of the vote in 2006 and ran unopposed in 2004, so Fudge is effectively on her way to the House.
Poll: Dem Leads For Missouri Governor
A new Rasmussen poll shows Democrats in a very strong position to pick up the open gubernatorial seat in Missouri, currently held by Republican Matt Blunt. Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon leads Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof by a margin of 54%-39%
Poll: Republican Leads For Washington State Governor
A separate Rasmussen poll gives the Republican candidate the lead in the race for governor of Washington state. Former stat Sen. Dino Rossi has a 52%-46% lead over incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire, who very narrowly won a disputed election result against Rossi back in 2004.
Former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) announced last night that he will once again take on Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, in what will be the fourth consecutive House election match-up between the two men.
Sodrel, a wealthy trucking executive, narrowly lost to Hill in 2002, but won by a razor-thin margin in 2004, and then narrowly lost again to Hill's 2006 comeback attempt. Despite losing more times than he's won, Sodrel always brings a close and hard-fought race for the GOP, and national Democrats will likely have to shift some resources to the district in order to retain the seat.
“A lot of voters voted for change in 2006,” Sodrel said. “I don’t think higher taxes, more spending and more programs were what they had in mind.”
Here's one House seat Dems may be forced to defend: That of Indiana Rep. Baron Hill.
Former Rep. Mike Sodrel, who's run against Hill three times in the past, will announce whether he's running early next month, according to the Louisville Courrier-Journal. If he goes for it, as expected, this would mark the fourth consecutive face-off in a row between the two lawmakers, with Sodrel's sole victory coming in 2004 by a margin of victory smaller than 1500 votes -- so Hill and national Dems will be forced to sink resources into defending the seat.
Outside groups, including both national parties and special interests, are spending almost $1 million more in Indiana's three competitive House races than the actual candidates. An examination of FEC filings by the Indianapolis Starreveals that the most independent expenditures are in the 8th District, where GOP Rep. John Hostettler is struggling to maintain his seat against Dem Brad Ellsworth. Democratic groups have spent $2.6 million in the district compared to $1.9 million by Republicans. Liberal groups are also outspending conservatives in the 2nd District race between GOP Rep. Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly. In contrast, GOP backers are dominating the 9th District battle between Republican Mike Sodrel and Dem Baron Hill. All three races are in the top 15 of the National Journal's rankings for likely seat changes this year.
Another GOP House member has nixed a planned campaign stop with Speaker Dennis Hastert. GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel, who's locked in a tight rematch with former Dem Rep. Baron Hill, was supposed to campaign with Hastert on Tuesday. The event's gotten the ax, however, according to the Associated Press. Sodrel claims Hastert cancelled due to the strains of Foleygate. But Hill has worked to turn Hastert into a liability for Sodrel, demanding that the GOP Rep return the estimated $77,000 he's received in campaign contributions from Hastert. Sodrel dismissed Hill's demand as a ploy: "He would like to have every Republican member of Congress resign," Sodrel griped.
In this new ad, the candidate talks about "faith" and "Hoosier values," says that "marriage should be between a man and a woman," and is even pictured in front of a church—but the candidate is a Democrat. The Dem in question is former Rep. Baron Hill, who's waging a comeback battle against freshman GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel. His ad mirrors those of other Dems in red-hued districts who are refusing to cede turf on social issues by co-opting so-called "values" language for themselves. View the ad here.
What would it take for Former First Lady Barbara Bush to campaign for Republicans again after calling it quits in 2004? An existential threat, of course! Campaigning for embattled Rep. Mike Sodrel, Bush told a crowd of GOP faithful that she decided to "suit up again" because "this year is the most crucial time ever for our country." With Sodrel trailing Dem. Baron Hill by six points in a recent poll, one wonders whether the President's mother is confusing Sodrel's diminishing chances for re-election with a threat to the country.
The National GOP leadership is dumping huge amounts of pork into a handful of Indiana districts in an effort to help save the seats of embattled GOP Reps Chris Chocola, John Hostettler, and Mike Sodrel. Combined, the three Congressmen’s districts have been greased with a staggering $24.57 million out of the $36.16 million in earmarks Indiana received in several recent House bills -- two-thirds of all the state's pork. The idea is to give Count Chocola and company something -- anything -- to run on. As Scott Frisch, the author of “The Politics of Pork," told the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette: "Tangible things like roads and water projects are things you can actually point at and say to your constituents, ‘I brought you things. I have power in Washington.'" For now, anyway.
In a move that shows how far public opinion has shifted against Iraq, a Dem House candidate in a conservative Indiana district yesterday bluntly accused the Bush administration of lying in the runup to the war. The accusation was made by Ex-Rep. Baron Hill, a conservative Dem who's mounting a comeback bid against Rep. Mike Sodrel (R), who narrowly ousted him in 2004. At a debate between the two candidates last night, Hill explained why he'd voted for the war as a Congressman in 2002 as follows: "I was lied to." That Hill felt free to be so blunt in a district that Bush carried by 59% in 2004 shows how much times have changed.
Republican Sodrel To Take On Democrat Hill, Once Again
