Outside groups, including both national parties and special interests, are spending almost $1 million more in Indiana's three competitive House races than the actual candidates. An examination of FEC filings by the Indianapolis Star reveals that the most independent expenditures are in the 8th District, where GOP Rep. John Hostettler is struggling to maintain his seat against Dem Brad Ellsworth. Democratic groups have spent $2.6 million in the district compared to $1.9 million by Republicans. Liberal groups are also outspending conservatives in the 2nd District race between GOP Rep. Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly. In contrast, GOP backers are dominating the 9th District battle between Republican Mike Sodrel and Dem Baron Hill. All three races are in the top 15 of the National Journal's rankings for likely seat changes this year.

Dems are poised for big gains in Indiana. CQ Politics has just revised its ratings in two key Indiana House races -- and both shifts downgrade the hopes of GOP incumbents. CQ's changed the rating of the race between GOP Rep John Hostettler and Dem Brad Ellsworth from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." And it's also shifted the rating in the contest between GOP Rep Chris Chocola and Dem Joe Donnelly from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." CQ's full analysis here.

Politicians often claim to be misrepresented in attack ads, but Rep. Chris Chocola has now managed to get one yanked off the air. The South Bend Tribune reports that Chocola has persuaded two local TV stations to ax a DCCC ad that attacked him for opposing a minimum-wage increase while accepting automatic pay increases. The Chocola camp insisted he had voted for the minimum wage —that is, in that recent bill which tied a minimum-wage hike to proposed cuts in the estate tax. But Dems say the ad was referring to another vote—a roll-call vote urging House-Senate negotiators to include an increase in a job-training bill. Local stations WSBT and WNDU sided with Chocola and killed the ad.

Over the weekend, the South Bend Tribune conducted an independent poll that showed Dem challenger Joe Donnelly with an eight point lead over Rep. Chris Chocola. This week, the Chocola campaign hit back with its own poll, conducted by Republican pollster Mercury Public Affairs. MPA's response to the numbers from the independent poll? They "believe [their] numbers are better than" the South Bend Tribune's numbers. Oh, and Chocola's campaign only released three questions from the poll. Which one do you trust?

A new poll just in from Constituent Dynamics shows Dems with sizeable leads over Republicans in three top House races in Indiana:

The National GOP leadership is dumping huge amounts of pork into a handful of Indiana districts in an effort to help save the seats of embattled GOP Reps Chris Chocola, John Hostettler, and Mike Sodrel. Combined, the three Congressmen’s districts have been greased with a staggering $24.57 million out of the $36.16 million in earmarks Indiana received in several recent House bills -- two-thirds of all the state's pork. The idea is to give Count Chocola and company something -- anything -- to run on. As Scott Frisch, the author of “The Politics of Pork," told the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette: "Tangible things like roads and water projects are things you can actually point at and say to your constituents, ‘I brought you things. I have power in Washington.'" For now, anyway.

A few weeks back Rep. Chris Chocola slammed Dem candidate Joe Donnelly over Donnelly's late payments on property taxes in the past. Chocola's even made the charge in a TV ad. It turns out, though, that's there a little problem: Chocola has done it, too. Today's Michigan City News-Dispatch reports that Chocola's former company was late making a similar tax payment in 1998.

Charlie Cook changes his rating of the race between incumbent GOP Rep. Chris Chocola and Dem challenger Joe Donnelly from "lean-R" to "toss-up":

Despite a significant fundraising advantage over Democrat Joe Donnelly, which has helped fuel a barrage of negative attack ads, incumbent GOP Rep. Chris Chocola looks more like an underdog than the frontrunner.

As Election Central reported yesterday, national GOP House strategists aren't giving Chocola any ad money, either.

Another quick word on that $40 million ad buy we referenced below that House strategists are planning: It looks as if one of the unlucky pols not getting a cash handout is Chris "the Count" Chocola, even though he's vulnerable and even though House Dem strategists are planning to spend tons of money to win the seat.

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As we noted below, we were surprised when the news broke that the DCCC had left vulnerable GOP Rep. Chris "the Count" Chocola off its list of targets for its latest ad blitz. But the DCCC must have reconsidered, because it has now released a blistering new ad tying Indiana's soaring gas prices to Chocola's coziness with Big Oil and Big Gas. Election Central has requested a copy of the video, which we'll post as soon as we get it. For now, read the text of the ad after the jump.

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Two years after the contentious passage of the Medicare prescription drug benefit bill in Congress, candidate Joe Donnelly (D) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are both hoping the issue still resonates in Indiana’s 2^nd district. The Democrat, who trying for a second time to take on Rep. Chris Chocola (R), is attacking a recent round of ads being run by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in support of Chocola’s vote in favor of the Medicare bill.

But a recent poll by Research 2000 found that when asked what is the most important issue in the campaign, only 7% of respondents said Medicare. The issues of the war in Iraq, the economy and taxes/spending polled much higher. This suggests that the Chamber’s ads and Donnelly’s criticism of Chocola may resonate little with voters.

Has the DCCC decided not to invest any cash in television ads targeting Chris "Count" Chocola? The Count seems to be among the more vulnerable incumbent Republican House members in the country, with recent polls giving challenger Joe Donnelly (D) a slight lead. But buried in today's rundown on $51 million in planned Dem ad spending in The Hill, we find this:

Notably absent from the DCCC list were Republican Reps. Chris Chocola (Ind.), who is considered one of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents, and Anne Northup (Ky.), whose Louisville district has been a perpetual target for congressional Democrats. (Emphasis added.)

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Here's another interesting tidbit which is now available from the Research 2000 weekend poll Josh linked to last night taking stock of the race between Rep. Chris Chocola (R) and Joe Donnelly (D). The big news in the poll, of course, remains that the numbers confirm (albeit not as dramatically) Donnelly’s own internal polling which showed him leading Chocola and revealed that the race is way more competetive than people expected. But there's something else of interest.

As regular readers of TPM know, Chocola has earned the distinction of being ranked by TPM as one of the House’s top Social Security bamboozlers. But it looks as if Chocola's support for phasing out Social Security may not hurt his reelection chances all that much. Asked in the Research 2000 poll “what will be the single most important issue in determining your vote,” 17 % of the 400 respondents said Iraq, followed by 11% for the economy, 10% for taxes/spending, 9% for war on terror, 7% toll roads, 7% immigration, and 7% for Social Security. (A few other issues languished in the single digits, too.) So there's a bit of good news in that poll for Chocola, too -- and the Count sure could use some good news right about now.

A poll released yesterday by Joe Donnelly (D) claiming that he leads Rep. Chris Chocola (R) by 10 points, 48 to 38%, has caused quite a stir. After all, Donnelly lost to Chocola 44 to 54% in 2004. Can the politically inexperienced businessman really be leading his former victor by so much?

One politico who isn't sure it's time to start celebrating just yet is pollster Delair Ali, who owns Research 2000. He is skeptical of the results, and he plans to run his own poll for the South Bend Tribune this weekend. It'll be interesting to see whether his results throw water on all the enthusiasm about Chocola's impending demise, or whether they confirm the results of the earlier poll.

As Ali said to the Tribune: “If it’s true, Chocola’s gone.”

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