A new set of state polls show Barack Obama leading in three Bush 2004 states -- one down to the wire, one by a decent margin, and one by a landslide.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that this state is a tight race going into the final days of the campaign, with Barack Obama up by just four points. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a heftier lead of nine points, 52%-43%. Today's poll has the same margin as the new Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up 47%-43%, although with a smaller number of undecideds.

In New Mexico, which narrowly went to Bush in 2004, today's Albuquerque Journal poll has Obama ahead by eight points, 51%-43%, similar to last night's SurveyUSA poll with Obama up 52%-45%. A month ago, the Journal's poll had Obama up 45%-40%.

The new Selzer poll of Iowa gives Obama a massive 17-point lead, 54%-37%, in a state that narrowly went to Bush in 2004, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead in September. Obama has consistently led McCain here, despite McCain still putting some decent money into the state.

Late Update: It's also worth noting that the Columbus Dispatch's final Ohio poll, which has had a perfect track record in modern political history of predicting the winner of the state's electoral votes, has Obama up 52%-46%.

Late Late Update: Mason-Dixon also has some more polls showing Obama and McCain splitting seven key Bush states by close margins, which would give Obama the White House if those numbers were to hold up on Election Day.

Late Late Update: On top of this, the new Pew poll is predicting that Obama will have an overall win of 52%-46% in the national popular vote.

McCain: I'm Not Bush
Appearing this morning on Meet The Press, John McCain reiterated his "I am not George Bush" line. "So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course," McCain explained "But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but others."

Obama Seizes On "Common Philosophy" Remark
At a rally today in Denver, Barack Obama will go after John McCain's concession on Meet The Press that he and President Bush share a common philosophy. "But then, just this morning, Senator McCain said that he and President Bush - 'share a common philosophy,'" Obama will say, according to prepared remarks. "That's right, Colorado. I guess that was John McCain finally giving us a little straight talk, and owning up to the fact that he and George Bush actually have a whole lot in common."

Obama In Colorado
Barack Obama is campaigning in Colorado today, with a 1:30 p.m. ET rally in Denver, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Forth Collins. Joe Biden is off the campaign trail today.

McCain In Iowa And Ohio, Palin In Florida And North Carolina
John McCain is holding a 2 p.m. ET rally in Cedar Falls, Iowa, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Lancaster Ohio. Sarah Palin has a 12 p.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, a 3 p.m. ET rally in Kissimmee, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Asheville, North Carolina.

Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Iowa
Two new polls of Iowa raise doubts as to whether McCain appearance today in the state is really the best use of his time. From Research 2000: Obama 54%, McCain 39%. And from Mason-Dixon: Obama 51%, McCain 40%.

Poll: Obama Also Way Ahead In New Hampshire
A new University of New Hampshire poll gives Barack Obama a 54%-39% lead in New Hampshire, and Democrats sweeping all the down-ticket races there this year. A caveat: Obama has been infamously burned by New Hampshire polls before, so the state's Dems should be anything but complacent.

Obama: McCain Attacking Bush "Like Robin Getting Mad At Batman"
At a rally yesterday in New Mexico, Barack Obama ridiculed John McCain's attempts to distance himself from George W. Bush's economic policies. "It's like Robin getting mad at Batman," Obama said.

Palin: Obama Will Abolish All Private Property
Campaigning yesterday in Iowa, Sarah Palin upped the ante on the GOP's efforts to paint Barack Obama as some kind of a Marxist because he wants the tax structure to be slightly more progressive, warning that all property would be collectively owned under Obama:

"See, under a big government, more tax agenda, what you thought was yours would really start belonging to somebody else, to everybody else," Palin said. "If you thought your income, your property, your inventory, your investments were, were yours, they would really collectively belong to everybody." Note: Palin is the governor of a state that practices the collective ownership of profitable natural resources.

Dems And GOP At Financial Parity For General Election
The two presidential nominees and their parties entered the general election on roughly equal financial footing -- Barack Obama and the DNC had $95 million on hand, and John McCain and the RNC $94 million. Another fun number: In August alone, the two sides spent over $90 million altogether.

Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is holding a rally today in Charlotte, North Carolina, with a rally scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. ET. Joe Biden does not have any scheduled events.

McCain Speaks To National Guard, Palin In Florida
John McCain is speaking today to the National Guard convention in Baltimore, Maryland, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Sarah Palin is holding a campaign rally in Lady Lake, Florida, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.

Dems Going After McCain On Health Care And Banking Statement
The Dems are pouncing on some comments by John McCain, in which he said health insurance should be deregulated in the same way as banking was, in order to achieve the same success. The Obama campaign and state Democratic parties have announced a series of events across the country, designed to attack McCain for this bizarre statement.

VP Debate Rules Dumbed Down
The rules for the upcoming vice-presidential debate have been altered at the McCain campaign's insistence, in an apparent attempt to make things easier on Sarah Palin. Instead of a more open-ended format that will allow the candidates to interact on the issues -- as will be the case in the presidential debates -- the VP debate will consist of much more formulaic question and answer rounds, allowing Palin to repeat stock answers.

McCain Camp Steps Up Palin's Foreign Policy Meetings
Sarah Palin will be meeting with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger this week, in addition to her already-scheduled meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Polls: McCain Narrowly Ahead In Florida, Obama Way Up In Iowa
A new Research 2000 poll gives John McCain the lead in Florida by a 46%-45% margin, within the ±4% margin of error. Meanwhile Obama has a huge lead of 53%-39% in Iowa, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004.

A new set of polls has good news for Barack Obama in four key battleground states:

• In Iowa, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, a new CNN poll has Obama ahead of John McCain by a 55%-40% margin.

• In Minnesota, which went narrowly to Kerry, CNN has Obama up 53%-41%.

• In Ohio, where President Bush's narrow 2004 win sealed his overall victory, the CNN poll gives Obama a 47%-45% edge, within the ±3.5% margin of error.

• In North Carolina, which hasn't voted Dem since 1976, a Democracy Corps (D) poll gives John McCain a narrow advantage of 47%-44% -- and gives Democratic Senate challenger Kay Hagan a 50%-45% lead over GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole.

If Obama's leads in Iowa and Ohio were to hold through November, it would be impossible for John McCain to win unless he could pick up some Kerry states.

A new Rasmussen poll of Iowa shows that Barack Obama's lead is starting to slip in this Midwestern swing stat,e though he does maintain an overall advantage.

The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±4% margin of error. A month ago, Obama had a healthier 51%-41% lead, in a state that voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and then switched to George W. Bush in 2004.

Reclaiming this state for the Dems is a cornerstone of Obama's electoral strategy, so don't be at all surprised if he steps up his visits here in order to hold on to his lead.

Now this is just sad. Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican who has long led the conservative forces of his state, has been denied his customary position as a voting delegate to the Republican National Convention -- and it's being done by an even more conservative bunch.

The Iowa Christian Alliance, a successor to the state's Christian Coalition, has effectively taken over the state party's executive committee, and they obviously weren't happy with Grassley. It does seem curious, though, when one considers that he came up in the ranks of conservative activists and was elected to the Senate in 1980 on Ronald Reagan's coattails, and is a reliably conservative vote on issues like abortion and gay rights. What could have gotten them angry?

The Washington Times, of all places, has a hypothesis: Grassley teamed up with Democrat Max Baucus to investigate the finances of televangelists.

A new Rasmussen poll of Iowa confirms that Barack Obama is enjoying a post-primary bounce across the country, leading John McCain 45%-38%, a solid margin with the poll's ±4% margin of error.

Iowa is a crucial battleground state that voted for Al Gore in 2000, but then narrowly switched to George W. Bush in 2004. A month ago, Obama led here by only 44%-42% in Rasmussen's polling.

His job now, of course, is to sustain his post-primary bounce, which is historically a tough job to perform.

In a further sign that Barack Obama is looking past the primary season and onward to the general election, the Obama campaign has announced that he'll be spending Tuesday night not in Oregon or Kentucky -- where primaries will be held that day -- but in Iowa.

The Obama campaign is very likely to clinch an overall majority of pledged delegates with Tuesday's contests, so the symbolism of his swing-state rally should be obvious: That he considers himself the popularly-elected nominee, and the race is on to fight John McCain.

Hillary Clinton's campaign has yet to announce where she will be on Tuesday.

John McCain has a new ad set to air in Iowa, contrasting McCain as a leader against the two Democrats who are still taking shots at each other:

"John McCain -- leadership, not politics," the announcers says. Of course, this ad may be just in time to be too late, as Barack Obama is in many ways looking past Hillary Clinton and already duking it out directly with McCain, as we saw yesterday.

The McCain seems to be making a big play for Iowa, where polling has shown him trailing Barack Obama. They have premiered this new ad, in which McCain promises to look out for people on economic issues:

"The great goal is to get the American economy running at full strength again," McCain says, "creating the opportunities Americans expect and the jobs Americans need."

The Hillary campaign was hoping, at a minimum, that tonight's two contests would more or less cancel each other out, thus keeping it not out of the realm of possibility that she could ultimately close the popular vote gap, including Florida, with a string of future wins.

Those hopes have been dealt a pretty severe blow tonight.

Not only were Indiana and North Carolina not a wash, but Obama's popular vote gains tonight have effectively wiped out her pop vote gains from her resounding win in Pennsylvania.

With 99% reporting in North Carolina, Obama is ahead by about 233,000 votes. Subtract from that the 20,000 that Obama is now trailing by in Indiana, with 92% reporting, and you have roughly a 213,000 gain for Obama.

Hillary won Pennsylvania by 214,000 -- a gain that has now been erased.

The battle between the two Dems over the "gas tax holiday" heated up on the trail today over Hillary's assertion that she was going to propose gas-tax-holiday legislation to see if members of Congress are "with us or against us" in battling the oil companies.

Obama claimed today that the "with us or against us" language had been borrowed from President Bush -- fightin' words indeed in a Dem primary.

Here's some audio of Hillary saying this on the trail last night...

Hillary, speaking of members of Congress, said: "I want them to tell us, are they with us or against us when it comes to taking on the oil companies?"

Hillary's throwing down of the gauntlet here could increase pressure on members of Congress -- who are also the super-delegates she's courting -- to take a position on the gas tax.

Obama has decided to engage Hillary more directly in the gas-tax-holiday fight, releasing a second ad today responding to her earlier ad hitting him for his refusal to embrace the idea. And on the trail this morning, Obama sought to ridicule her remarks.

"She even borrowed one of President Bush's favorite phrases, and said that every member of Congress had to tell her -- `are they with us or against us?' Obama said.

It's unclear as yet how the issue is cutting politically in Indiana. Obama's decision to engage the issue more forcefully is inconclusive on this question. It could either reflect a belief that she's got him on the defensive on the issue, or a belief that it makes it easier to cast her as a pandering politician, or a bit of both.

For their part, the Hillary campaign says that their internal polling shows that her gas-tax-holiday talk is persuading working people that she identifies with the economic strain they're suffering. Full transcript of Hillary's remarks after the jump.

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John McCain has a new ad airing in Iowa, featuring the candidate speaking to the camera and pitching his health care plan to voters in a key swing state -- an indication that McCain is looking to shore up his standing on domestic issues:

Iowa voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000, then narrowly for President Bush in 2004, and polls this year have mostly shown McCain trailing Barack Obama and beating Hillary Clinton here. So no matter who the Democratic nominee ends up being, expect this state to be very closely contested.

The Iowa caucuses might have been over two months ago, but Barack Obama is still making gains off of them. In today's Iowa county Democratic conventions — which those caucus delegates were elected to participate in — Obama picked up the votes of roughly half of John Edwards' former supporters, netting him seven delegates.

Going into the June state Democratic convention, where the federal delegates will finally be selected, Obama is projected to have 23 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 14, with eight remaining delegates either still nominally for Edwards or uncommitted.

To put this in perspective, Hillary's total gains in the Ohio primary amounted to a net advantage of nine delegates.

Late Update: NBC News is now putting Obama's projected net delegate gain at five, not seven. The current numbers: Obama 23, Clinton 16, Edwards/Uncommitted 6. Still, it's hardly a bad day for Obama.

Late Late Update: The newest NBC projections give Obama 25 delegates, Clinton 14, and Edwards/Uncommitted 6. That's a gain of nine delegates for Obama since the January 3 precinct caucuses, and a loss of one for Clinton.

So with a few days of post-Iowa polling behind us, just how much of an effect have we seen in New Hampshire? A comparison between Zogby's pre-Iowa benchmarks and this morning's polls — which are composed of a pure post-Iowa sample over three days — gives the answer.

Obviously, Barack Obama has enjoyed a huge jump in the polls, but it turns out that Mitt Romney's Iowa defeat hasn't created any real benefit for John McCain:

Democrats:
Obama 39% (+13)
Clinton 29% (-3)
Edwards 19% (-1)
Richardson 6% (-1)

Republicans:
McCain 34% (+0)
Romney 29% (-1)
Huckabee 10% (+0)
Giuliani 9% (+0)
Paul 6% (-1)

John McCain may well win New Hampshire, but it wouldn't be because of any bounce in his favor — rather, it would be because of the absence of a bounce for Mitt Romney, who had been counting on one from an Iowa victory that never came.

Rudy Giuliani, speaking about his sixth place finish in Iowa yesterday:

"None of this worries me -- Sept. 11, there were times I was worried."

As a GOP operative I know loves to say, the man has "9/11 Tourettes." Can't help himself.

With the candidates already stumping in New Hampshire, the thing to watch now is how Edwards and Hillary retool their approaches to adapt to the new political realities that have been created by Obama's seismic win last night.

Today in New Hampshire he employed a contrast with Obama that we haven't heard before:

"I am not the candidate of glitz; I am not the candidate of glamor," Edwards said. "I am the candidate who will fight with every fiber of my being every step of the way."

Edwards' approach now is to cast yesterday's results as simply a Hillary loss and a victory for an abstract desire for change, rather than a victory for Obama, as well as casting the rest of the contest as a head-to-head battle between himself and Obama for that change mantle. Hillary has been airbrushed from the picture, in Edwards' telling.

And as the above references to "glitz" and "glamor" suggest, Edwards wants this contest with Obama to shape up as, "Who can best deliver change -- a lover or a fighter?"

Barack Obama, speaking on the campaign plane after last night's win, offered this analysis of what transpired in Iowa:

"We felt good for the last two weeks because we were so proud of what was happening on the ground. We were seeing the crowds, and so regardless of how the numbers played out exactly, we were really confident about us having changed how politics operated in this caucus. And it makes me very optimistic about the country. I think we can do it for the country as a whole."

Here you see the kernel of Obama's emerging post-Iowa case for his own national electability: The successes he had in Iowa in bringing new demographic groups into his coalition can be duplicated nationwide.

Relatedly, Chris Bowers compares the Iowa entrance polls from 2008 and 2004 and concludes that the new voters Obama brought out were almost all Democrats, not independents, and concludes that Obama won "on the back of the creative class vote" -- young and educated voters, and self-identifying liberals.

Here's another figure from the entrance poll: An astonishing 57% of caucusers were first-time participants. And how did they vote? Barack Obama carried them with 41% of the people going in and before second-choice reallocations, followed by Hillary Clinton at 29% and John Edwards at 18%.

And among the returning caucus-goers? Edwards was carrying them with 30%, with Obama at 26% and Hillary with 24%.

This tells us two things. First, Obama's strategy of bringing in new caucus-goers worked, the first time in recent history where such a strategy actually did so in the caucus. It's a big change from when Howard Dean tried it with less than impressive results. As for Edwards, his problem was that he fought the last war — if the caucus' turnout had been more like 2004, he may well have been the winner.

So how exactly did those much-coveted second-choice votes in the Iowa Caucus work out — did they deliver a victory for Obama through all these mysterious deals? The answer is actually pretty surprising. According to the entrance poll, which only measured first preferences of the participants going in, the numbers were: Obama 35%, Hillary 27%, Edwards 23%.

If we assume that the final state delegate numbers actually approximated the votes of the caucus participants, this means John Edwards was the big second-choice winner, as he boosted his final score by seven points, compared to only three points for Obama and two for Hillary. It was enough to just overtake Hillary for second place, but not enough for first — because it turned out that Obama entered as the clear winner from first choices alone.

John Edwards makes his interpretation as clear as you could possibly want: Though Edwards edged Hillary by a hair, tonight's results represent a rejection of Hillary, and all that's left is a contest between he and Obama.

"What happens now is we go to New Hampshire and other states, where the voters are going to have to decide who, between myself and Senator Obama, can best bring about change," Edwards says.

Separately, The New York Times reports that aides to Hillary say that Bill Clinton will spend the next five days campaigning intensively in New Hampshire on her behalf.

The numbers are final -- with all 1,781 precincts reporting, it's:

Obama: 37.58%

Edwards: 29.75%

Clinton: 29.47%

So, Edwards does come in second, and his team will be making the case that he beat Hillary, despite being outspent by a huge margin. The truth is that it couldn't have been closer, really. But the same reporters and commentators who portrayed this as a two person race -- Obama versus Hillary from the outset -- will now portray Hillary's virtual tie with Edwards for second place as a crushing loss to Hillary.

Edwards is currently speaking to his supporters, and he declared victory for second place over Hillary, though the full results aren't in.

Here's what's interesting: He interpreted tonight's results as meaning that "change won" -- and went on to characterize the rest of the contest as a fight over who is best suited to deliver change -- he or Obama.

Basically, he's arguing that he main significance of tonight's results is that Hillary lost, which obscures the fact that Obama won decisively over Edwards tonight and that Hillary is far from eliminated. But Edwards is arguing that this race is now about just the two men.

Edwards, his voice hoarse, said: "What happened tonight, is that the Iowa caucus goers said, `We want something different.'"