Although all the attention is on the Democratic side for tonight's primaries, there could be some big news for the Republican nomination, too — assuming he gets a big majority of tonight's 256 Republican delegates, John McCain will officially have won the 1,191 total delegates he needs to clinch the Republican nomination.

If that happens, look for Mike Huckabee to end his campaign soon and concede defeat — after all, he has said repeatedly he would keep going until somebody got past the goal-post.

Sorry, Huckmentum hopefuls: NBC and Fox call Virginia for McCain.

Today's SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that John McCain might have some of the same problems in tomorrow's primary as he did in the weekend contests, when he lost Kansas and Louisiana and was awarded a close victory in Washington State, which Mike Huckabee is now disputing.

Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released on Friday:

McCain 48% (-9)
Huckabee 37% (+10)

Huckabee did well this past weekend due in part to the low turnout, caused by the McCain's virtually-certain nomination. In such a situation, only the most dedicated, hard-core conservative voters even bothered to show up.

And the poll's internals show that Huck is ahead among self-described conservatives, 45%-40%. This means that very low turnout could conceivably duplicate in Virginia the same conditions that marked those other races, thus providing the potential for a Huck upset.

For an example of how such amazingly low turnout can throw off conventional polling models, note that SurveyUSA had McCain ahead by nearly 30 points in Washington State.

In what will likely be taken as a sign of Republican Party disunity, presumptive nominee John McCain has lost this afternoon's Kansas caucuses to Mike Huckabee — and it wasn't even close. With 88% reporting, Huck has 60% to McCain's 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 11%. Huckabee will almost certainly win all 36 of the delegates up for grabs.

In some ways, this state was tailor-made for Huckabee. A top issue for the Kansas GOP is to challenge the teaching of evolution, and McCain's virtually-certain nomination guaranteed a low turnout. But it can't be good for McCain's image if he continues to lose more contests to Huckabee. As such, expect McCain to increase his travel schedule to upcoming primaries and caucuses, in order to make sure this doesn't happen again.

In a sign that John McCain's essentially certain nomination still isn't going over well with some hardcore activists, James Dobson will be endorsing Mike Huckabee tomorrow — the first time ever that Dobson is making an endorsement during the Republican primary campaign.

Dobson is not a fan of McCain, to put it mildly. On Super Tuesday, while voting was going on, he released a statement that he would refuse to cast a ballot for president in the general election if McCain were nominated. Considering that McCain's nomination is now mathematically a foregone conclusion, it'll be interesting to see what Dobson does this Fall, and whether he successfully discourages his followers from going to the polls.

Today's Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, their final national polls before Super Tuesday, show Hillary Clinton and John McCain with the leads going into this crucial day — a sign that both of them are the overall favorites for tonight.

Here are the Dem numbers, compared to yesterday's:

Gallup: Clinton 47% (+0), Obama 42% (-1)

Rasmussen: Clinton 47% (+1), Obama 40% (+0)

On the Republican side, John McCain's support may have dipped a bit in Gallup, but he's still doing more than fine:

Gallup: McCain 41% (-4), Romney 24% (-1), Huckabee 21% (+4)

Rasmussen: McCain 34% (+1), Romney 30% (+0), Huckabee 20% (-2)

The new ABC/Washington Post national poll shows a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from three weeks ago:

Clinton 47% (+5)
Obama 43% (+6)

John Edwards was at 11% in the last poll, an indication that his support may be breaking fairly even between two remaining candidates in the country as a whole — though the breakdowns have also seemed to vary from state to state in other polls.

On the Republican side, it's a different story. John McCain is way ahead, and appears to have picked up virtually all of Rudy Giuliani's past support:

McCain 48% (+20)
Romney 24% (+5)
Huckabee 20% (-4)
Paul 7% (+4)

Yesterday we brought you a roundup of Super Tuesday polls for the Democratic primaries. Today, we bring you the same for the Republicans.

The bottom line: John McCain has it made.

He leads in nearly every state, with Romney only having clear advantages in Massachusetts, Colorado and of course Utah. Huckabee runs well in some Southern states, but even then he'll probably lose a bunch to McCain. Compounding the trend for McCain, Rudy's former support will probably go almost entirely to him.

A complication: Republican primaries don't use uniform rules of delegate apportionment, like the Democrats do. Quite a few contests are winner-take-all, but many others are not. They do not use a proportional system, but instead distribute delegates by district (usually the same as House districts) and then accord all the district's delegates to the plurality winner.

What does that mean for the race? The Northeast — where McCain is strongest — is mostly winner-take-all. And where Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee do manage some strength, it's often in states that distribute delegates either by district or even proportionally, meaning that the map alone gives McCain a big advantage.

In short, expect McCain to rack up a lot of delegates on Tuesday. He won't clinch the nomination outright, but he may build up an advantage so large that his nomination becomes a foregone conclusion.

Check out our poll chart and further analysis after the jump.

Read more »

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that Barack Obama might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton in her home state of New York. Hillary leads with 45% of the vote, followed by Obama at 33% and John Edwards with 10%. In the demographic breakdown, Hillary leads 44%-29% among whites, Obama 44%-32% among African-Americans, and Hillary 64%-31% among Hispanics.

Bear in mind that all Democratic primaries use a form of proportional representation — so Obama could walk away with a decent chunk of delegates if he simply posts a respectable showing for an out-of-state challenger.

On the Republican side, it looks like John McCain will coast to a win in this winner-take-all contest. He leads with 34%, followed by the now-departed Rudy Giuliani at 20%, Mitt Romney with 19%, and Mike Huckabee with 10%.

The final Zogby poll of the Florida primary gives John McCain an apparent lead in the Republican race, though like practically all other polls the race is still too close to call. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's release:

McCain 35% (+2)
Romney 31% (+1)
Giuliani 13% (-1)
Huckabee 13% (+2)
Paul 2% (+0)

The final SurveyUSA poll in the Florida primary shows that the Republican race is simply too close to call between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released earlier today:

McCain 32% (+1)
Romney 31% (-1)
Giuliani 15% (-1)
Huckabee 13% (+0)
Paul 6% (+1)

Analysis from SurveyUSA: "We can reveal that in the final totals it is McCain 31.6%, Romney 31.2%, but we will caution that those numbers are not materially different than the Romney 31.9%, McCain 31.3% numbers that SurveyUSA reported this morning. The movement is too small to be judged significant, and the best interpretation of the data and the trendlines is that the contest could go either way."

A new survey from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling gives Mitt Romney a big lead over John McCain, and clear momentum. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from five days ago:

Romney 35% (+7)
McCain 28% (+3)
Huckabee 13% (-2)
Giuliani 12% (-7)
Paul 5% (+0)

The new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows a dead heat in the Republican primary. In a possible sign of momentum, Mitt Romney leads by one point, whereas he was down in their previous poll released Friday:

Romney 32% (+4)
McCain 31% (+1)
Giuliani 16% (-2)
Huckabee 13% (-1)
Paul 5% (-1)

The poll was conducted entirely yesterday, after Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain.

This morning's Quinnipiac poll shows the Republican primary in Florida to be a statistical dead heat. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from two weeks ago:

McCain 32% (+10)
Romney 31% (+12)
Giuliani 14% (-6)
Huckabee 13% (-6)
Paul 3% (-2)

Two new polls show John McCain getting an increase in Florida in the wake of Gov. Charlie Crist's endorsement, taking the lead or tying Mitt Romney after one new day of polling.

From Zogby:

McCain 33% (+3)
Romney 30% (+0)
Giuliani 14% (+1)
Huckabee 11% (-3)
Paul 2% (-1)

Commentary from John Zogby: “It is important to note that popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain Saturday and campaigned with him Sunday. Sunday alone, McCain had another big day, winning 38% support to Romney’s 31%."

And from Rasmussen, which also credited Crist's endorsement as one of several factors:

Romney 31% (-2)
McCain 31% (+4)
Giuliani 16% (-2)
Huckabee 11% (-1)
Paul 4% (-2)

We'll all find out tomorrow whether McCain is able to sustain his boost, or whether MItt Romney can pull off the big win, after all.

A new Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado shows Mitt Romney with a huge lead over John McCain — probably due in no small part to the illegal immigration issue — and Barack Obama edging Hillary Clinton in a statistical dead heat:

Democrats:
Obama 34%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 17%

Republicans:
Romney 43%
McCain 24%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 5%
Giuliani 4%

Colorado is holding its caucuses on Super Tuesday.

The new Rasmussen poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney pulling ahead of John McCain. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from three days ago:

Romney 33% (+6)
McCain 27% (+4)
Giuliani 18% (-2)
Huckabee 12% (-3)
Paul 2% (-2)

Today's Zogby tracking poll in Florida shows John McCain and Mitt Romney in a tie — a slight gain for Romney from yesterday. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's release:

McCain 30% (-1)
Romney 30% (+2)
Huckabee 14% (+4)
Giuliani 13% (-2)
Paul 3% (-2)

Romney wins among self-identified conservatives, while McCain wins among moderates. Interestingly, Romney wins voters over the age of 65 and under the age of 30, with McCain winning those in the middle range.

The new SurveyUSA poll in Florida gives John McCain a very narrow lead over Mitt Romney, who is himself catching up very quickly. Here are the results, compared to the numbers from four days ago:

McCain 30% (+5)
Romney 28% (+9)
Giuliani 18% (-2)
Huckabee 14% (+0)
Paul 6% (-1)

It really does seem like Fred Thompson's exit from the race was a boon for Romney. Fred had 7% support in the previous poll, and it looks like Mitt got the lion's share of it.

Mike Huckabee, at the debate a few moments ago:

"The fact is, this country has always been a country where people were able to respect people who had faith, and frankly we ought to be able to respect people who don't have any."

Tolerance alert! Atheists might still be inclined to worry about Huck's desire to bring the Constitution in line with God's will, but perhaps it's a start.

The GOP debate in Florida is underway, and one thing immediately jumped out: Some of the candidates agree that before the war, Saddam -- contrary to President Bush's argument that he had WMDs -- was only trying to acquire them.

Here's what John McCain said:

It was worth getting rid of Saddam Hussein. He had used weapons of mass destruction, and it's clear that he was hell bent on acquiring them.

And here's what Mike Huckabee said:

We owe him our thanks, that he had the courage to recognize there was a potential of weapons of mass destruction, and rather than wait until we had another attack, he went and made sure that it wasn't going to happen from Saddam Hussein.

If memory serves, Bush was definitive on the point -- he said Saddam did have WMDs. Right?

Late Update: Here's video:

Feel the Mittmentum! The new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney grabbing the lead over John McCain:

Romney 30%
McCain 26%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

It's starting to look like McCain tops out somewhere in the mid-high 20s in this key primary — which means that Fred Thompson's withdrawal was the best thing that could have happened to Romney.

A new poll in Florida by the St. Petersburg Times finds John McCain with only a narrow lead in the Republican primary — a sign that Mitt Romney may be surging thanks to Fred Thompson's withdrawal from the race:

McCain 25%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 15%