Jim Gilmore

Report: Gilmore Push-Polling In Iowa

Is former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore push-polling as part of his underdog campaign for the White House? Bob Novak reports that Gilmore's organization is using the tactic — which asks respondents loaded questions intended to create a negative impression about other candidates — in Iowa. The kicker? It's working:

Before the "push" element of Gilmore's poll, the unadulterated results showed McCain leading in Iowa with 33 percent, followed by Giuliani at 31.5 percent and Romney at 8.8 percent (the unknown Gilmore took just 1.3 percent). That the pollsters could cause so much movement by pushing — or "informing" — respondents that McCain opposed tax cuts, Romney took a pro-choice abortion stance in Massachusetts, and Giuliani supported Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo's re-election in New York, for example, is very telling as to just how committed voters are to the "big three," even the ones who say they support them. Giuliani dropped by nine points with pushing, Romney lost five points (McCain actually rose 2 points).

Then the pushers went to work projecting Gilmore as a tax-cutting, job-creating governor of Virginia, head of a congressionally appointed commission on terrorism, chairman of the Republican National Committee and a National Rifle Association member. With that buildup, Gilmore finished first, well ahead of the field. That suggests that, under the current conditions, a campaign knocking down the conservative credentials of the "big three" could make a nominee out of even a long shot such as Gilmore — at least theoretically.


It's posible that Gilmore isn't doing the loaded poll just to smear the other candidates, but is genuinely testing a message and seeing how voters would receive it, in hopes of exploiting what Novak calls a "conservative void" in the race — the questionable right-wing credentials of the leading candidates.

Novak's conclusion: "The lesson is that the prominent coverage of the 'big three' is by no means an indicator that they will remain out front. The conservative void on the Republican side is simply too great. Nature abhors a vacuum, as does the political world."

Obama Lands Support Of Big New York Money Man And Other Campaign Updates

Here are a few quick updates on the Presidential candidates:

* Barack Obama has landed the support of one of New York's most prominent fundraisers, Ben Smith reports.

* Tom Tancredo has called for the abolishment of the Conressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in the wake of the rumored refusal of the Black Caucus to admit white Rep. Steve Cohen, D-TN.

* Mitt Romney will be visiting Iowa tomorrow, going to Waterloo, Fairbank and Dubuque with his son, Tagg, according to a campaign press release.

* Rudy Giuliani will be in New Hampshire tomorrow, giving the keynote speech to the Littleton Chamber of Commerce in Bretton Woods. He'll follow that up at the state GOP's annual meeting in Manchester on Saturday.

* Jim Gilmore and Tom Tancredo are also visiting New Hampshire this weekend, appearing separately at restaurants in the state, while another restaurant will feature a private fundraiser for John McCain featuring Governor Jon Huntsman Jr., a McCain backer.

* Bill Richardson and Wesley Clark will be appearing together this Saturday in Nevada, with both speaking at a fundraising dinner for the Douglas County Democratic Central Committee.

* In New Jersey, a Quinnipiac poll finds Rudy Giuliani leading the GOP field with 39%, followed by John McCain at 21%. On the Dem side, Hillary Clinton is in the lead with 30%, trailed by Barack Obama with 16%.

* A poll from Arizona State University has John McCain dominating the GOP side, as is to be expected among primary voters in his home state, with 54% of the vote, followed by Newt Gingrich with 14%. On the Dem side, Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton, 29%-23%.


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