Report: Gilmore Push-Polling In Iowa
Is former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore push-polling as part of his underdog campaign for the White House? Bob Novak reports that Gilmore's organization is using the tactic — which asks respondents loaded questions intended to create a negative impression about other candidates — in Iowa. The kicker? It's working:
Before the "push" element of Gilmore's poll, the unadulterated results showed McCain leading in Iowa with 33 percent, followed by Giuliani at 31.5 percent and Romney at 8.8 percent (the unknown Gilmore took just 1.3 percent). That the pollsters could cause so much movement by pushing — or "informing" — respondents that McCain opposed tax cuts, Romney took a pro-choice abortion stance in Massachusetts, and Giuliani supported Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo's re-election in New York, for example, is very telling as to just how committed voters are to the "big three," even the ones who say they support them. Giuliani dropped by nine points with pushing, Romney lost five points (McCain actually rose 2 points).Then the pushers went to work projecting Gilmore as a tax-cutting, job-creating governor of Virginia, head of a congressionally appointed commission on terrorism, chairman of the Republican National Committee and a National Rifle Association member. With that buildup, Gilmore finished first, well ahead of the field. That suggests that, under the current conditions, a campaign knocking down the conservative credentials of the "big three" could make a nominee out of even a long shot such as Gilmore — at least theoretically.
It's posible that Gilmore isn't doing the loaded poll just to smear the other candidates, but is genuinely testing a message and seeing how voters would receive it, in hopes of exploiting what Novak calls a "conservative void" in the race — the questionable right-wing credentials of the leading candidates.
Novak's conclusion: "The lesson is that the prominent coverage of the 'big three' is by no means an indicator that they will remain out front. The conservative void on the Republican side is simply too great. Nature abhors a vacuum, as does the political world."














