Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Another Poll Shows Tight Race For Murtha
A new poll from the Las-Vegas based Dane & Associates, commissioned by GrassrootsPA.com, shows Jack Murtha with a bare lead of 46%-44% over GOP opponent William Russell, within the ±3% margin of error. GrassrootsPA.com is a right-wing site, but it should be noted that Dane is a non-partisan firm that has done polling work for politicians of both parties from across the country.

New Mahoney Ad: He's A Jerk, But Look At The Other Guy
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose sex scandal has probably doomed his bid for re-election, has this new ad in which constituents admit he's been a personal disappointment, but his opponent's positions on the issues would damage the country:

One line in particular seems poorly written for a politician in Mahoney's situation: "He (Rooney) doesn't have Congressman Mahoney's experience."

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

AFL-CIO Takes Aim At Bachmann
The AFL-CIO is now going into the race against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), smelling blood in the water thanks to her McCarthyist rant on Hardball and new poll data showing her narrowly losing to conservative Democrat El Tinklenberg. Here's their new mailer:

"Michele Bachmann helped break the economy," the mailer says sternly. "Working families can't afford another term."

Obama Tapes Ad For Merkley
Barack Obama has taped an ad for Jeff Merkley, the Dem nominee against Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), asking the voters in this blue state to "choose real change" with Merkley:

This is the first ad that Obama has done for a down-ticket candidate during the general election, and was likely done in direct response to Smith's own efforts to tie himself to Obama and other major Dem names like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.

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Coleman: I Won't Say War Was A Mistake, For The Sake Of The Dead
At a debate last night in the Minnesota Senate race, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) reiterated his position that he will not say the Iraq War was as mistake. Coleman put it in very stark terms: "I will not tell the parents of any kid who has died in Iraq that their son died because of a mistake. I simply will not do that."

GOP Poll: Mahoney Way Down
We usually don't cover internal polls, but this one probably deserves some attention. The campaign of House candidate Tom Rooney (R-FL) has put out a poll showing Rooney defeating scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent Tim Mahoney by a whopping 55%-29%. We'll probably see an independent poll of this race soon, and don't be too surprised if it also shows Mahoney losing.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Bachmann Separates Herself From Bush, Both Physically And Figuratively
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), who famously hugged President Bush at his 2007 State of the Union and didn't seem to want to let go, is now making some distance between herself and the unpopular president. At a debate earlier today, Bachmann boasted that she opposed Bush on the Wall St. bailout, and attacked her Democratic opponent El Tinklenberg: "He is more line with President Bush's policies than I am."

Smith Airs Another Ad With Wyden, Obama and Kennedy
Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), whose ads have connected him to liberal icons like Ted Kennedy and Barack Obama as he seeks re-election this blue state, has yet another ad using video footage of Ron Wyden, his Democratic co-Senator, praising him and appearing to endorse him:

Wyden previously called on Smith to can the first ad that pulled this trick, because it incorporated Wyden's signature to really make it look like Wyden was for Smith. Now Smith has met Wyden halfway -- he's dropped the signature, but kept the video.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Coleman Rebrands Himself As The "Hope" Candidate
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who dramatically announced that he was canceling his negative ads when poll data showed him falling behind Al Franken, is aggressively rebranding himself with some familiar language. The new example: Coleman kicked off a bus tour this morning with the title "The Hope Express." It should be said: Coleman has quite a bit of audacity.

GOP Keeps Up The Attacks Against Franken
Norm Coleman's declaration that he didn't want to run negative ads doesn't seem to have bothered the NRSC, who are making up the difference for him. Here's their new attack ad against Al Franken:

"Al Franken: He'd make things worse," the announcer says. This slogan has come up in multiple ads from the GOP. It's not clear just how effective it could be for an incumbent party to admit that things are bad, and then argue that the other guys shouldn't get elected because they would make it worse.

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Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Mahoney's Re-Election Chances Downgraded
In a move that shouldn't really surprise anybody, the pundits are reclassifying Congressman Tim Mahoney's (D-FL) re-election chances in the wake of revelations that he had an affair with a former staffer and allegedly paid over $121,000 in hush money. Stuart Rothenberg has changed the race from from "Toss-UP/Tilt Democratic" to "Pure Toss-Up," and Charlie Cook has shifted it from "Lean Democratic" to "Lean Republican."

Another Poll Shows Al Franken Ahead In Minnesota
The new Quinnipiac poll in Minnesota gives Al Franken a slender lead in the Minnesota Senate race: Franken 38%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 36%, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley at 18%, with a ±3% margin of error. Quinnipiac's previous poll from three weeks ago gave Coleman a 49%-42% lead in a two-way race, but a lot has happened since then with the economy. It should also be noted that a recent Rasmussen poll did not show Barkley definitively siphoning more votes from one major candidate or the other.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Foley Successor Embroiled In Own Allegations of Misconduct
Democrats could end up losing a key Florida House seat that they picked up in 2006: The district of the infamous former GOP Rep. Mark Foley. Freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney reportedly agreed to pay $121,000 to a former female staffer and alleged mistress, after she threatened to sue him. Mahoney is facing a competitive challenge from GOP candidate Tom Rooney.

Dem Ad: Norm Coleman Is "Shameless"
The DSCC has this new ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), lampooning his recent announcement that he'll suspend negative advertisement as a ploy to avoid responsibility for his own misleading attacks and personal scandals:

"Suit from Neiman Marcus: $1,400. Misleading attack ads paid for by you and your allies: $6.8 million," the announcer says. "Calling for a suspension of negative ads after smearing your opponent? Shameless."

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are leveraging their big financial advantage over the GOP into an extensive round of attack ads against the Republicans, in order to pick up some usually-tough seats this November.

National Dems Launch New Wave Of Attack Ads In House Races
The DCCC has launched a major TV attack ad offensive in districts across the country, some of them defending Dem-held seats but others running in GOP-held areas that are traditionally very difficult for the Dems. Ads will be running in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Here's one of the ads, running in a deep-red New Mexico district:

New York GOP Trying To Dump Candidate For Key House Seat
The race for the open seat of scandal-plagued Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) just keeps getting weirder, with Manhattan Republicans now nominating unpopular GOP nominee Bob Straniere for an open judgeship as a means of getting him to drop out of the race -- but Straniere is refusing. National Republicans feel that their chances of holding the seat could potentially improve if they can substitute Fossella himself as the new candidate, but they're not optimistic that it will actually happen.

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Here's a blooper if there ever was one. The Congressional office of Florida Democrat Tim Mahoney, a freshman who faces a potentially tough re-election fight this fall, was forced to put out a statement apologizing for a mailer they sent to the district two months ago in which the Congressman touted his support for veterans.

The problem: The mailer featured a stock picture of an elderly veteran who turned out to be a Soviet soldier! Click the picture to enlarge:

Right-wing blogs were the first to note the foul-up, raising questions about the veteran's lack of American medals.

"This was an honest staff error," Mahoney's chief of staff said in the statement, forwarded to us by his office. "We deeply apologize to those who were offended and we will take steps to ensure that this mistake doesn't happen in the future."

Translation: D'oh!

Although the national GOP efforts to negatively associate down-ticket Democrats with Barack Obama failed in the recent special elections, it appears to have paid off in one respect: We now have a red-district Democrat backing away from from Obama's candidacy.

Freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney of Florida told the Palm Beach Post that he's remaining officially uncommitted for now, and wants the opportunity to lobby John McCain on key local issues.

"I'm a Democrat," Mahoney said. "But am I going to have a pep rally or something like that? No, I'm not going to do that."

If Obama is going to win Florida, he'll need to have local Dems being a lot more energized and active on his behalf than this guy. But his reluctance seems odd, given that Dems in much deeper-red Mississippi and Louisiana won special elections even after being "tarred" by their association with Obama.

Remember Joe Negron? He was the GOP candidate who lost to Dem Tim Mahoney after replacing disgraced GOP Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned after the page scandal forced him to give up his House seat. Now Negron's back: He's getting ready to challenge Mahoney to a rematch in 2008, according to Roll Call. This is not great news for Dems, because Negron lost by a single percentage point to Mahoney — even though Negron's name wasn't even on the ballot; Negron had to run under Foley's name. Next time around, presumably, Negron's name will indeed be on the ballot — so Mahoney will likely need to work as hard as he can to hold the seat.

Get this — Roy Blunt, the number three Republican in the House, is telling Florida residents in Mark Foley's district that if they want the House to fund a long-sought cleanup of a local lagoon, they should vote for GOP candidate Joe Negron. The Palm Beach Post quotes Blunt, the House majority whip, as saying the following: "I think it will make a difference if Joe Negron is the guy ... as we look at these projects we've talked about." The NRCC's blog actually boasted about Blunt's remarks. Such talk sounds more like a leader of a party with a secure majority than one which may be three weeks away from being in the minority.

House Maj. Whip Roy Blunt promised that the House GOP would fund an important lagoon cleanup — on the condition that the locals vote for who he wants, the Palm Beach Post reports. "I think it will make a difference if Joe Negron is the guy ... as we look at these projects we've talked about," Blunt is quoted saying. This sort of heavy-handedness — boasted about on the NRCC blog — is typical of a party with a secure majority, not a party whose grip is increasingly questionable.

Dem House candidate Tim Mahoney is leading GOP rival Joe Negron by seven points in the race for the seat of disgraced Rep. Mark Foley, but the race is by no means a lock for Democrats, a new poll published today by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel finds. The poll says Mahoney is backed by 48% of respondents, to 41% for Negron, the GOP's choice to replace Foley. But the poll also finds that 11 percent of voters are undecided, and that a surpising 71% say Foley's resignation will have "no effect" on their vote. "Both parties' national campaign committees in Washington, D.C., are scrambling to pour money into the District 16 race," says the paper, "highlighting its newfound importance in the national landscape."

Here's a measure of just how difficult things are going to be for Joe Negron, the GOP's replacement candidate for Mark Foley, given that Foley's name will still be on the ballot and Negron will get all votes cast for Foley: Joe Negron's 20-year-old son had difficulty voting for his own dad. The Palm Beach Post reports that Negron's son, a Florida State University student, voted early by absentee ballot in the general election. But young Negron told the paper that he had to "hold his nose" in order to bring himself to check the box by Foley's name. Moral: Even for those who know that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, it's still tough to overcome the negative visceral sensation of voting for "Mark Foley."

Florida attorney and state representative Joe Negron has just won the nod from GOP leaders to run for the seat of disgraced GOP Rep Mark Foley. Due to Florida law, Foley's name will remain on the ballot, but Negron will collect his votes. TPMmuckraker's Paul Kiel has the details. A bit more on Negron -- including his past support for government intervention in the case of Terry Schiavo -- here.

So it turns out that the Miami Herald saw the Mark Foley emails some time ago and passed on publishing them, just as the St. Petersburg Times did. Deep in a Herald story today about the scandal, we find this:

Miami Herald Executive Editor Tom Fiedler said Sunday the newspaper also saw the same e-mails and "didn't feel there was sufficient clarity in the e-mails to warrant a story.

"We determined after discussion among several senior editors, including myself, that the content of the messages was too ambiguous to lead to a news story, Fiedler said.

This gives rise to a couple of questions.

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Some Florida GOPers think it would be a better idea to cede the seat being vacated by Mark Foley to Dems, rather than contest it and keep the story going. Florida's WFTV reports:

Some Republicans think it might be wiser to forfeit Foley's seat and avoid keeping the story alive through Election Day.

"I think it's a death sentence ... mission impossible," former state Republican chairman Tom Slade said. "The only way you win is they (voters) have got to vote for Mark Foley. That doesn't appear to me to be very attractive."

But state party spokesman Jeff Sadosky said the seat is too important to surrender.

"The voters will educate themselves running in the race, not the candidates from the race in the past," Sadosky said. "It's not going to be about yesterday's news no matter how tragic and horrifying."

GOP leaders are meeting today to pick a replacement. The three pols jockeying for the nod are Jupiter attorney Tom Rooney and State Reps Joe Negron and Gayle Harrell.

The frontrunner right now to be the GOP's candidate for the seat of Rep. Mark Foley -- who resigned yesterday amid revelations of his sexually-charged emails to House pages -- is Florida State Rep. Joe Negron, a 45-year-old lawyer and aggressive fundraiser. Florida GOPers are telling the St. Petersburg Times that Negron is a strong contender, and Negron himself told the paper, "I'm making calls as quickly as I can." Who is Negron? Well, here's one indicator: Negron full-throatedly supported Gov. Jeb Bush's efforts to intervene and prevent doctors from allowing the death of Terry Schiavo, the Florida brain-dead woman who was allowed to die after a national battle over her fate. Negron's take on Schiavo? It was wrong, Negron said in June, "for a judge to say you can't put water on the lips of a citizen of Florida."

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The frontrunner right now in the race to be the replacement candidate for GOP Rep. Mark Foley -- who resigned yesterday amid revelations of his sexually-charged emails to House pages -- is Florida State Rep. Joe Negron, a 45-year-old lawyer and aggressive fundraiser. Florida GOPers are telling the St. Petersburg Times that Negron is a strong contender, and Negron himself told the paper, "I'm making calls as quickly as I can." Who is Negron? Well, here's one indicator: Negron full-throatedly supported government intervention in the case of Terry Schiavo, the Florida brain dead woman who was allowed to die after a national political battle over her fate. Negron's take? It was wrong, Negron said in June, "for a judge to say you can't put water on the lips of a citizen of Florida."

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Yesterday we brought you word that GOP Rep. Mark Foley was in a bit of trouble for writing some overly friendly emails to a 16-year-old former page in the House of Representatives. Now Foley has just resigned. TPMmuckraker's Justin Rood has the details.

This may be the first time that a pol has gotten in trouble for asking someone what he wants for his birthday, but let's face it, politics is a rough business. A sixteen-year-old former page to the House of Representatives is accusing GOP Rep Mark Foley of writing him a bunch of "sick" emails, in which Foley asked the page his age and what he wanted for his birthday, and asked for a picture of him. TPMmuckraker's Justin Rood has all the details.