Economy

A Tale of Two Stimuli

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) had few good things to say about the emerging Obama economic stimulus plan this evening, but the Senate's Democratic chairman, Chuck Schumer (NY), followed Bing Crosby's advice and accentuated the positive.

"What people are debating is the balance" between the parts of the package already outlined by Obama, he said, pointing to widespread Senate support for adding more tax benefits for sustainable and alternative energy. "But I think the basic outline the president-elect put forward is meeting with favor."

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Harkin Fears "Trickle-Down" Stimulus

Democratic senators are still emerging from their closed-door briefing with Obama economic adviser Larry Summers ... but a senior Democratic senator, Iowa progressive Tom Harkin, just gave me a dire buzzword: trickle-down.

"There's only one thing we've got to do in this stimulus, and that's create jobs," Harkin told me. "I'm a little concerned by the way Mr. Summers and others are going on this ... it still looks a little more to me like trickle-down."

Likening Barack Obama's economic recovery plan to the failed supply-side excesses of the Reagan and Bush years is a bit of a Cassandra moment. But Harkin didn't back down. "What I'm hearing from Mr. Summers is that they've got a different approach -- tax breaks, and this and that," he said. Harkin warned that, much like the outcome of George Bush's $600 stimulus package last year, recipients of quick tax cuts "are going to be salting it away, not spending it."

When I asked if he felt his concerns were heard during the meeting, he looked to the floor and slowly shook his head. It was almost forlorn.


Obama Delivering Big Economic Speech Today, Promoting Stimulus Package

Barack Obama will be giving a major speech at 11 a.m. ET this morning in Fairfax, Virginia, making his case for his stimulus package, saying that the situation is urgent. From pre-released excerpts:

I don't believe it's too late to change course, but it will be if we don't take dramatic action as soon as possible. If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits. Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four. We could lose a generation of potential and promise, as more young Americans are forced to forgo dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future. And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world.

In short, a bad situation could become dramatically worse.

Obama will also promise accountability, assuaging skeptics who would say the stimulus is getting out of hand:

I understand that some might be skeptical of this plan. Our government has already spent a good deal of money, but we haven't yet seen that translate into more jobs or higher incomes or renewed confidence in our economy. That's why the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan won't just throw money at our problems - we'll invest in what works.

...

Instead of politicians doling out money behind a veil of secrecy, decisions about where we invest will be made transparently, and informed by independent experts wherever possible. Every American will be able to hold Washington accountable for these decisions by going online to see how and where their tax dollars are being spent. And as I announced yesterday, we will launch an unprecedented effort to eliminate unwise and unnecessary spending that has never been more unaffordable for our nation and our children's future than it is right now.

Full excerpts after the jump.

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Election Central Morning Roundup

Today: Congress Being Sworn In, Biden At The Senate
This is the day that Congress will be sworn in. Joe Biden will be on Capitol Hill to be sworn in again for a seventh term in the Senate -- which he will resign within the next two weeks or so, to become vice president.

The Big Event: Burris At The Senate
With Congress being sworn in, of course, this means Roland Burris will be showing up at the Senate, and is expected to be turned away. Burris has said he won't make a scene or cause any confrontation -- but any scenario in which he's turned away from the door would inherently be a scene, no matter how civil it might be.

No Senator Franken Today
Senate Democrats will not make any attempt today to swear in Al Franken as the new Senator from Minnesota, instead leaving that seat vacant for now. There is some speculation that they might be planing to try it soon -- but they would encounter a promised Republican filibuster, while Norm Coleman pursues his legal challenges to the election result.

Obama Meeting With Economic Team Today
Barack Obama is meeting with his economic team, this afternoon at his D.C. transition office. The subject of the meeting will be to plan ahead for the 2010 budget, and how they will bring the deficit down as the economy recovers.

Gregoire D.C. Trip Sets Off Speculation About Commerce Department
Gov. Christine Gregoire (D-WA) is reportedly on a trip to Washington, after having cancelled a lunch appearance back home -- setting off speculation that she is being vetted as a last-minute choice for Secretary of Commerce after Bill Richardson's withdrawal. Gregoire was re-elected by six points this past November, and if this is true she would be succeeded by Democratic Lt. Gov. Brad Owen. (Late Update: Gregoire is visiting troops in Iraq, and is apparently not lining up for a cabinet post.)

Laura Bush Lands Book Deal
Laura Bush has secured a book deal, to publish her memoirs about her years as First Lady. The book will be published in 2010.

Former eBay Head And McCain Surrogate Preparing California Gubernatorial Run
Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who hit the campaign trail in 2008 as a surrogate for John McCain, is considering a campaign for governor of California in 2010, when Arnold Schwarzenegger will be term-limited. Whitman has already made a key staff hire in lining up campaign strategist Jeff Randle, who has worked for Schwarzenegger and Pete Wilson, and she has stepped down from three corporate boards.

Brownback Running For Governor Of Kansas
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) has filed paperwork to run for governor of Kansas in 2010, after having made good on his previous pledge to not run again for Senate. Brownback is actively aligned with the state GOP's Christian-right faction, and should be viewed as the frontrunner going into this race.

Report: Obama To Give Big Economic Speech Thursday

Barack Obama will reportedly give a major speech on the economy this Thursday. No further details are known at this time, but it would seem reasonable to assume that the speech will be part of his push for a stimulus package.

More details have been starting to emerge about the package, such as the inclusion of about $300 billion in tax cuts over two years combined with the public works expenditures we already knew about. This means the package will have something to please everybody along the political spectrum -- and conversely, something to annoy everyone.

Meanwhile, the Republican-friendly Chamber of Commerce already has this statement out, praising the inclusion of tax cuts -- and asking for more:

While the devil is always in the details, we are encouraged by this latest development. We urge Congress and President-elect Obama to consider including other tax-related measures in the stimulus package, including an investment tax credit for home purchases, repatriation of foreign earnings to help companies refinance debt, and a temporary suspension of income tax on cancellation of debt.

Obama Backs Auto Bailout, Demands That Companies "Reform"

Barack Obama, in a new statement, throws his support to the big $17.4 billion bailout of the auto industry announced today and offers a stern warning to the effect that the auto companies better get serious about reforming their business practices:

"Today's actions are a necessary step to help avoid a collapse in our auto industry that would have devastating consequences for our economy and our workers. With the short-term assistance provided by this package, the auto companies must bring all their stakeholders together -- including labor, dealers, creditors and suppliers -- to make the hard choices necessary to achieve long-term viability. The auto companies must not squander this chance to reform bad management practices and begin the long-term restructuring that is absolutely required to save this critical industry and the millions of American jobs that depend on it."

Once Obama becomes President, he'll have a big stick to brandish in order to compel the companies to reform (though it remains to be seen whether "reform" will be enough to save the companies). The deal calls for the loans to be called back if the firms aren't viable by March 31, 2009 -- a decision that would probably be made by Obama's Treasury Secretary. Also, this is only a temporary fix and further action will be required from the Obama administration, among others.

Obama On Today's Job Loss Announcement: This Crisis Gives Us Big Opportunity

Barack Obama, responding to today's announcement of the worst job losses in over three decades, puts out a statement heavy on the "crisis as opportunity" rhetoric:

"The 533,000 jobs lost last month, the worst job loss in 34 years, is more than a dramatic reflection of the growing economic crisis we face. Each of those lost jobs represents a personal crisis for a family somewhere in America. Our economy has already lost nearly 2 million jobs during this recession, which is why we need an Economic Recovery Plan that will save or create at least 2.5 million more jobs over two years while we act decisively to maintain the flows of credit on which so many American families and American businesses depend.

"There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it's likely to get worse before it gets better. But now is the time to respond with urgent resolve to put people back to work and get our economy moving again. At the same time, this painful crisis also provides us with an opportunity to transform our economy to improve the lives of ordinary people by rebuilding roads and modernizing schools for our children, investing in clean energy solutions to break our dependence on imported oil, and making an early down payment on the long-term reforms that will grow and strengthen our economy for all Americans for years to come."

The key line, of course, is the assertion that the crisis affords an opportunity for genuine transformation. It will cheer many liberals, such as Robert Borosage, who have been arguing that the crisis affords Obama an enormous opportunity to be bold and think big.

Krugman: Obama's Centrist Economic Appointments "Unavoidable"

Paul Krugman -- a leading voice of worry during the Dem primary that Obama would eschew confrontation for mushy post-partisanship -- has an interesting new post that to some degree clears Obama of the charge that his economic appointments herald an inevitably centrist administration:

A thought I've had: there have been some complaints from movement progressives about the centrism/orthodoxy of Obama's economics appointments. To some extent this was unavoidable, I think: someone like the Treasury secretary has to be an experienced hand who can deal with Wall Street, and I haven't heard anyone proposing particular individuals with clearer progressive credentials to hold that position.

For the leading progressive economic voice to be saying this is obviously good for Obama. But Krugman also has a challenge for the President-elect, pointing out that the new economics advisory board unveiled today offers him "a very good place to give progressive economists a voice."

"Let's see whether progressives do in fact get a seat at this particular table," Krugman says.

Indeed. Obama did say today at his presser that "labor" would be given a seat at this table. Here's the perfect opportunity for Obama to allay the concerns -- founded or not -- that some liberals have been giving voice to.

Obama Hits Auto Execs As "Tone Deaf," Demands "Ethic Of Responsibility" For Business Bigs

Although some are worried that Barack Obama is betraying liberals, he sounded some sharply populist tones in an interview set to air on ABC tonight, hitting auto executives as "tone deaf," calling on bank execs to forgo bonuses, and asserting that business leaders have a responsibility to the "community."

Obama also called for a return to an "ethic of responsibility." ABC sent out advance excerpts of the interview, and the exchange is worth quoting in full:

BARBARA WALTERS: How did you feel when you read about the three heads of the auto companies taking private planes to Washington?

BARACK OBAMA: Well, I thought maybe they're a little tone deaf to what's happening in America right now. And this has been a chronic problem, not just for the auto industry, I mean, we're sort of focused on them. But I think it's been a problem for the captains of industry, generally.

When people are pulling down hundred-million-dollar bonuses on Wall Street, and taking enormous risks with other people's money, that indicates a sense that you don't have any perspective on what's happening to ordinary Americans. When the auto makers are getting paid far more than their counterparts at Toyota, or at Honda, and yet, they're losing money a lot faster than Japanese auto makers are, that tells me that they're not seeing what's going on out there, and one of the things I hope my presidency helps to usher in is a, a return to an ethic of responsibility.

That if you're placed in a position of power, then you've got responsibilities to your workers. You've got a responsibility to your community. Your share holders. That if -- there's got to be a point where you say, 'You know what, I have enough, and now I'm in this position of responsibility, let me make sure that I'm doing right by people, and, and acting in a way that is responsible.' And that's true, by the way, for members of Congress, that's true for the president, that's true for Cabinet members, that's true for parents.

I want all of us to start thinking a little bit more, not just about what's good for me, but let's start thinking about what's good for our children, what's good for our country. The more we do that, the better off we're going to be.

WALTERS: Should bank executives -- it's almost Christmas time -- forgo their bonuses?

OBAMA: I think they should. That's an example of taking responsibility. I think that if you are already worth tens of millions of dollars, and you are having to lay off workers, the least you can do is say, "I'm willing to make some sacrifice as well, because I recognize that there are people who are a lot less well off, who are going through some pretty tough times."

Spoken like the true socialist that Obama is. Also note that he's putting the call for responsibility to the "community" in a patriotic context.

In all seriousness, while this is just rhetorical and the devil will be in the policy details, the tone Obama struck here is certainly encouraging. It's another sign of just how sharply the political landscape has shifted amid the crisis, as well as a reminder of how great an opportunity to prove the virtues of liberal ideas this moment really represents.

Obama: The "Vision" Buck Stops Here

A very interesting moment at Obama's presser on the economy today: He made a strong "buck stops here" statement, and offered perhaps his most extensive response yet to concerns in some quarters that his hiring of people with Washington and Clinton administration experience undercuts his administration's promise of change.

His remarks at the presser -- which was held to announce the appointment of Paul Volcker as chair of a new President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board -- came in response to a question about his hiring of Washington insiders.

Obama said that the American people would be "deeply troubled" if he didn't hire people with governing experience at a moment of such crisis, said they were merely tasked with implementing his vision, and placed the responsibility for creating that vision squarely on his own shoulders.

"That's my job," Obama said, adding that it "is to provide a vision where we are going and to make sure that my team is implementing it."

Obama added that his administration would "combine experience with fresh thinking."

In an apparent reference to criticism of Obama for appointing so many Clintonites, he rejected the notion that if you've served in previous Democratic administrations that "you're somehow barred from serving again."

Apologies for repeating this yet again, but it's something of a fool's errand to try to try to conclude too much in advance about the ideological cast of this presidency merely by looking at his appointments. It makes a heck of a lot more sense to let his actual policies do the talking.

Poll: More Think Obama Won't Be Able To Do Much To Improve The Economy

An interesting number from the new ABC poll:

How much do you think Obama will be able to do to improve the economy -- a great deal, a good amount, only some or not much at all?

Great deal/good amount: 44%

Some/not much: 49%

That 44% who hold out high hopes is down from 50% nearly a month ago, suggesting that the campaign rhetoric highs that people had been enjoying have worn off.

The numbers also suggest that Obama has partially succeeded in the absolutely crucial task of depressing immediate expectations for his economic performance, which could help him govern by buying him time to deliver results.

Separately, the poll finds that 67% approve of the way he's handling the transition. And 66% approve of Hillary as Secretary of State, including a surprisingly high 65% of independents -- another sign of the surprising degree to which her Dem primary campaign erased some of Hillary's image as a polarizing figure.

Late Update: As a commenter argues below, another obvious factor here is that the economy has tanked even more in the last month, deepening public pessimism. Either way, it's better for Obama, of course, if the public doesn't expect too much too fast.

Obama Rolls Out Rubinite Economic Team; Says He May Not Immediately Repeal Bush's Tax Cuts

A couple of quick notes about the big press conference on the economy that Barack Obama just wrapped up unveiling his economic team and preparing the electorate for the long struggle ahead.

One tidbit of news: In the question-and-answer session, he confirmed that he may not repeal Bush's tax cuts through legislation and may let them expire in two years instead.

"Whether that's done through repeal or whether that's done because [the tax cuts] are not renewed is something that my economic team will be providing a recommendation" on, Obama said in response to a reporter's question.

While Obama did promise during the campaign to "roll back" the tax cuts, it's also important to remember that he said back in September that a recession could delay the rollback. At the presser today, Obama reiterated that his larger principle remained the same: That "those who benefitted disproportionally" will "pay a little more."

As expected, Obama confirmed the appointments of Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers as the Director of our National Economic Council, Christina Romer as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors; and Melody Barnes as Director of the Domestic Policy Council.

The appointments have prompted some to observe that his economic team is heavy with proponents of what came to be called "Rubinomics" -- an embrace of balanced budgets, deregulation, and free trade as routes to prosperity.

That said, those who might worry that these choices portend a shift in Obama's emphasis should note that thanks to the meltdown and the talk of bailing out major corporations with taxpayer funds, the need for aggressive regulation of Wall Street right now seems far more obvious than it may have in the early 1990s. So it seems unlikely that the choices signal any kind of ideological shift on Obama's part. Rather, they're about sending a reassuring message to international markets.

Indeed, the presser was yet another reminder of just how enormous the expectations for Obama are right now and how urgently he needs to depress them by adequately preparing the electorate for the long and difficult road ahead.

"This won't be easy," Obama said. "There are no shortcuts or quick fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making -- and the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. Full recovery won't happen immediately."

Full prepared remarks after the jump.

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Senior Dem Leadership Aide: Congress And Obama Aiming To Pass Stimulus Package Before Obama Takes Office

Dem Congressional leaders are working with Obama officials to create and pass a massive stimulus package before Obama takes power on January 20th, a senior Dem leadership aide confirms to me.

The timing is significant because it means Obama could sign it the first day he takes office.

"We come in January 6th and Obama is sworn in on January 20th," the leadership aide emails to me, adding that the timing "gives both of us a month and a half to work on a plan that could be taken up in House shortly after we come in and sent to the Senate before January 20th."

The crisis has forced Obama to walk a tricky balancing act: He's under tremendous pressure to show that he's acting on the economy, in order to calm the markets, while not appearing to step on the current president's toes.

Hence the leaks from Obama's team last week about his choices for economic advisers -- leaks which rallied the markets on Friday -- and, now, his team's behind-the-scenes work to get a stimulus package prepped and ready for him in advance.

Moving so quickly on the planned package, which some reports say could top $500 billion, could carry some risks. Jake Tapper, who first reported the stimulus package timing, notes that some Dems worry that getting it passed so fast could prove too ambitious, given that GOPers still have the numbers necessary to block it with a filibuster.

Bonior's Group Launches TV Ad Campaign Pushing Labor's Agenda

Here's a look at the new ad I reported on yesterday that David Bonior's pro-labor group is launching nationally -- it's a fun spot that's pushing the new government to pass the Employee Free Choice Act, one of labor's top agenda items:

It's the first advocacy ad greeting the new order in D.C. Bonior's group, which is called American Rights at Work, tells me that the spot will air for three weeks on national cable -- CNN, MSNBC, and CNN Headline News -- making this something of a significant buy.

Separately, as also noted here, some of the nation's top labor leaders gathered in DC yesterday to discuss a new campaign they're launching to secure passage of the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for workers to unionize in various ways. At the meeting, which was attended by top officials from the AFL-CIO and AFSCME, among others, the labor bigs talked about launching a huge nationwide field operation and the formation of a media fund to possibly go up on the air to push for the measure.

It's worth noting that labor may in some ways play a different role this time than they did during the Clinton years. The big unions are hoping for a role more akin to the one they played during the campaign, staking out a populist left flank for the administration and helping push its evolving agenda.

In other words, the big unions are envisioning more of a cooperative role with the administration than during the Clinton years, when the battles over NAFTA set up more of a confrontational situation. The more cooperative spirit is born largely of a sobering sense of just how big an opportunity the left and Dems have on their hands, and a desire not to blow it.

Bonior's Group Launching TV Ad Campaign Pushing New Government To Fill Labor's Demands

Yesterday I reported that the big unions were meeting today to put the final touches on plans to launch a big campaign to push the Obama administration and Congress to deliver on their agenda.

Now I've learned that a big pro-labor group headed by David Bonior is preparing to launch a three-week national TV ad campaign pressing the new government to deliver on one of labor's top agenda items: The Employee Free Choice Act.

This is significant, because it's the first of what will be many advocacy ads hitting the airwaves demanding action from the government that takes power in January -- or opposing such action, as the case may be.

Bonior's group, which is called American Rights at Work, will be going up with the spot for three weeks on national cable -- CNN, MSNBC, and CNN Headline News -- a senior official with the group tells me. "It's a significant buy," he says.

The spot, which will be released to the press tomorrow, was shown to me a few moments ago, and it's a pretty good one. It shows a worker being told by his bosses in a boardroom that they are going to give him health care and all sorts of other work-related benefits.

The worker then wakes up, realizing that he was dreaming, and a narrator intones that only in a dream will such a thing happen.

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Election Central Morning Roundup

McCain To Campaign In Georgia Senate Race
The former GOP presidential nominee is set to campaign for incumbent GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss in Georgia today. McCain's planned trip raises anew questions about why the GOP appears to be outworking Dems in this race: While a host of high profile Republicans will be stumping in the state, few if any well known Dems are set to campaign there on behalf of Dem challenger Jim Martin, and Barack Obama (who in fairness is kind of busy right now) has not yet said whether he'll visit the state.

Obama In Chicago, Biden Touring VP's Residence With Cheney
Barack Obama is holding private meetings today in Chicago. Joe Biden and his wife Jill are off to the Naval Observatory -- the official residence of the vice president -- to get a guided tour of their new home from the Cheneys at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Palin Addressing Republican Governors
Sarah Palin is set to address the Republican Governors Association conference today, an event that could serve as a 2012 audition for not just herself but other GOP governors in attendance like Tim Pawlenty and Bobby Jindal. Question of the day: When will the press start paying as much attention to the actual Vice President-Elect -- you know, Joe Biden -- as they are to the Whacka from Alaska?

Iran Blasts Obama As "More Dangerous" Than Bush
The Iranian government is predictably not respnding favorably to Barack Obama's calls for diplomacy. "People who put on a mask of friendship, but with the objective of betrayal, and who enter from the angle of negotiations without preconditions, are more dangerous," said Hossein Taeb, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Wait, wasn't Iran supposed to be eager for an Obama victory?

Health Care A Non-Starter This Year?
Some pundits are raising the possibility that health care reform just isn't gonna happen this year. The leading assumption right now appears to be that Obama can't afford to invest either the money or the political capital on such an ambitious goal, what with the economic crisis and big, politically fraught foreign policy decisions to make.

Gingrich: The GOP Is Totally Outclassed By Dems
Newt Gingrich, who knows a thing or two about losing power, sums up the current state of the Republicans as follows: "The Republican Party right now is like a midsize college team trying to play in the Super Bowl." If one-party Dem rule delivers, pretty soon the Repubs will be like the Bad News Bears playing in the World Series.

Obama Dispatches Bipartisan Reps To G-20 Summit

The Obama camp announces that Obama has tapped a bipartisan pair -- former GOP Rep. Jim Leach and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright -- to meet with delegations at the upcoming G-20 summit.

"This weekend's summit is an important opportunity to hear from the leaders of many of the world's largest economies," said Obama Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Denis McDonough in an Obama camp release.

"There is one President at a time in the United States, so the President-elect has asked Secretary Albright and Congressman Leach, an experienced and bipartisan team, to be available meet with and listen to our friends and allies on his behalf."

The key here, again, is the enormous pressure that the financial crisis has placed on Obama to project a sense that he's swiftly acting, well before he puts his feet up on the Oval Office desk for the first time, while simultaneously avoiding the perception that he's presumptuously stepping on the toes of the current president. It wouldn't be quite right to be a complete non-presence at the G-20, given the meltdown; hence this solution.

As He Manages Transition, Obama Under Pressure To Act Quickly On Economy

With Obama planning his transition, meeting with his economic transition team and holding a press conference today, it's worth noting the extraordinary pressure he is under to be perceived as acting quickly, particularly with regard to the economic crisis -- before he becomes president.

Obama is reported to be devoting a great deal of time right now to picking a Treasury Secretary, and most news accounts say he's divided between Lawrence Summers, who held the post during the Clinton administration, and Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. But Dems in Congress are divided between the two picks, and liberal bloggers have mounted a campaign against Summers, suggesting that picking him could antagonize the Dems' liberal wing.

Meanwhile, some of Obama's own economic advisers are already beginning to pressure Congress, laying the groundwork for action once Obama takes office. Governor Jennifer Granholm, a member of his economic transition team, sent a letter to Congressional leaders urging them to finance public infrastructure projects, extend unemployment and food stamp benefits and pony up aid for the ailing auto industry.

Granholm is a strong supporter of a Congressional stimulus package, which Obama also supports.

Obama's performance this afternoon at his first press conference as President-Elect will obviously be key. To the degree that he can project a sense that he's swiftly taking action, it could have a calming effect that could make actual governing on the economy easier for him once he takes power. A lot to keep an eye on today.

Obama Rolls Out Economic Transition Advisers, Include Warren Buffett, Robert Rubin, Robert Reich

President-Elect Barack Obama is signaling quick movement on the economy, with his advisers moments ago rolling out a list of economic bigs who will serve on his Transition Economic Advisory Board.

Obama and Joe Biden will meet with the group tomorrow and hold a press conference afterwards, Camp Obama announces.

The group includes a bunch of expected names. There's Warren Buffett (who endorsed Obama) and Governor Jennifer Granholm, as well as some heavy-hitters from the Clinton universe, like Robert Rubin and Robert Reich.

Also serving: Harvard's Lawrence Summers and former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker.

Obama's press conference -- which will take place tomorrow at 2:30 P.M. ET -- is likely to be a media zoo, both because it will offer clues to Obama's first moves on the economy and because it's his first presser as President-Elect.

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Poll: Obama Leads By Nine, Thanks To Economic Crisis And Debates

Obama heads into election day with a comfortable nine-point lead over McCain, a new Marist poll finds: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error, compared to Friday's release that had Obama up 50%-43%.

Assuming Obama ultimately wins the election tomorrow, the internals suggest that the combination of his solid debate performances and the economic anxieties created by the Wall St. meltdown helped him to seal the deal.

When asked what events sealed their decisions on who to vote for, 22% of Obama supporters named the debates, and another 11% named the economic crisis. Only 13% of McCain supporters said it was the debates, and five percent said it was the economic crash.

Poll: McCain Stumbling Badly On Economic Crisis

Here's yet another piece of evidence that John McCain has really fumbled in his reactions to the economic crisis: By a more than 2-1 margin, registered voters in the new Pew poll say he's done a bad job explaining how he would handle it.

Do you think (candidate) has done an excellent, good, only fair, or poor job of explaining how he would handle the current problems with financial institutions and markets?

Obama: Excellent/Good 48%, Fair/Poor 47%
McCain: Excellent/Good 29%, Fair/Poor 67%

The poll also shows that registered voters trust Obama over McCain to handle the crisis by 47%-33%. In the overall horse race, Obama leads 49%-42% among likely voters.

This would all suggest that if McCain's pseudo-suspension was in any way meant to create the impression that he was up to handling the economy, it clearly didn't work.

Election Central Morning Roundup

Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Four Battleground States
A new set of polls from Quinnipiac gives Barack Obama very strong leads in four key swing states: He's up 52%-43% in Colorado, 54%-38% in Michigan, 51%-40% in Minnesota, and 54%-37% in Wisconsin. Three of these four states have gone Democratic in the past two elections -- though by close margins -- and Colorado would represent a pick-up in the Dem column away from the GOP.

McCain To Unveil New Economic Proposals Today
John McCain will use his rally today in Pennsylvania as a platform to unveil new proposals on the economy, billed as his "Pension And Family Security Plan," an issue area that has in large part contributed to Barack Obama's lead in the polls. The plan will combine capital-gains tax cuts with a proposal to have the government buy out variable-rate mortgages and replace them with more manageable fixed-rate loans.

Obama Off The Trail, Biden Swinging Through Ohio
Barack Obama has no public events today, probably due to final preparations for tomorrow's debate. Joe Biden is touring Ohio today, with multiple events: A 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Warren, a 4 p.m. ET rally in St. Clairsville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Marietta.

McCain And Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin are both campaigning today in Pennsylvania, a large swing state that has been slipping away from them in the polls. McCain is holding an 11:30 a.m. rally in Blue Bell, and Palin has a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton.

RNC Spending More And More Money On Ads
The Republican National Committee has shelled out $5 million to run two of their TV ads against Barack Obama -- one that attacks him as a Chicago machine politician, and the other that tags him as a big spender. The RNC has raised roughly $50 million more than the DNC, which has essentially made up for Barack Obama's cash advantage over John McCain's individual campaign committee.

McCain Camp Caught Lying About Crowd Sizes Again
The McCain campaign has again been caught puffing up the number of people who attend their rallies. The campaign claimed that 25,000 people attended John McCain's Virginia Beach rally -- but the venue only holds 16,000, and the fire marshall estimated that only 12,000 people were in attendance.

Now McCain Campaign Says He Will Offer Economic Proposals Tomorrow

Despite a top surrogate's suggestion over the weekend that McCain would be unveiling new economic proposals, we learned this morning that in fact John McCain wasn't planning to announce anything of this kind. Instead, in a big speech today, McCain revealed that the new change to his campaign was that he'd more aggressively take the fight to Obama.

Now it turns out the whole plan all along was for McCain to offer new proposals. And he'll be offering them tomorrow.

That's what the McCain campaign just announced on a conference call with reporters moments ago, a few hours -- coincidentally, we're sure -- after Obama made headlines with proposals of his own.

"John McCain has consistently talked about the actions necessary to preserve their financial and economic futures, as we've gone through this terrible crisis, and he'll continue to do so tomorrow," said economic adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin. "And that's the plan, it's always been the plan, and he will lay it out, and we should look forward to hearing from him."

Late Update: Holtz-Eakin said on the call that specific proposals would be forthcoming. "He will both sketch out a vision that has been in the process of being fully depicted since the beginning of the campaign, and also be offering new specific measures," he said on the call. I've edited the above to reflect that.

Late Late Update: If the plan all along was for McCain to announce "new specific measures" tomorrow, it seems odd that McCain spokesperson Tucker Bounds said this just yesterday:

"We do not have any immediate plans to announce any policy proposals outside of the proposals that John McCain has announced, and the certain proposals that would result as economic news continues to come our way."
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