Obama heads into election day with a comfortable nine-point lead over McCain, a new Marist poll finds: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error, compared to Friday's release that had Obama up 50%-43%.
Assuming Obama ultimately wins the election tomorrow, the internals suggest that the combination of his solid debate performances and the economic anxieties created by the Wall St. meltdown helped him to seal the deal.
When asked what events sealed their decisions on who to vote for, 22% of Obama supporters named the debates, and another 11% named the economic crisis. Only 13% of McCain supporters said it was the debates, and five percent said it was the economic crash.
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is holding a sizable lead over John McCain, and has slightly expanded it after a momentary dip yesterday:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-46% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-43.9%, a lead of six points, compared to the 49.5%-44.3% Obama lead from yesterday.
Note that this is the first day of polling taken entirely after Wednesday's debate. The pre-debate baseline was an Obama lead of 50.3%-43.7%, meaning that McCain has barely made a dent since then.
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Going into last night's debate, Barack Obama's big lead over John McCain may have been narrowing a bit, though he was still solidly ahead:
• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.3%-43.7%, a lead of 6.6 points, compared to the 50.3%-43.3% Obama lead from yesterday. Two days ago, Obama's composite lead was 50.6%-43.1%.
Remember that this polling was all done before last night's debate, so it doesn't tell us about the post-debate environment. Instead, it gives us a baseline against which we can measure the changes in the coming days.
*ed. note: Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a modified likely-voter model for an expected higher turnout. For all our composites and Poll Tracker entries, we will be using that second model under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle.
New Obama Ad: McCain May Not Be Bush, But He Sure Votes With Him
The Obama campaign already has this new TV ad set to air on national cable, taking on John McCain for his declaration at the debate last night that he's not President Bush:
"You may not be George Bush," the announcer says, speaking in the most literal sense of McCain and Bush being two separate people. This is then followed by footage of what really counts: McCain boasting during the primaries that he's voted with Bush over 90% of the time.
Obama In New Hampshire And New York, Michelle In Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is holding a 10 a.m. ET event in Londonderry, New Hampshire, and will then head to New York City for the Al Smith Dinner. Michelle is holding a rally in Pittsburgh at 10 a.m. ET. Joe Biden is off the campaign trail today, but will appear on Jay Leno tonight.
McCain In Pennsylvania And New York, Palin In Maine And North Carolina
John McCain is holding a rally at 1 p.m. ET today in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, and will then head to New York for the Al Smith Dinner -- and a taping of the David Letterman show, in an effort patch things up after he ditched Dave last month. Sarah Palin will hold a rally at 10 a.m. ET in Bangor, Maine, in the hopes of taking away one electoral vote in a state that splits their votes by Congressional districts. Palin will then head to North Carolina, for a 3:15 p.m. ET rally in Elon.
Obama And McCain Meeting Again Tonight In New York
Barack Obama and John McCain will both be attending tonight's Alfred E. Smith Dinner in New York, an annual charity event held by the New York Archdiocese and a frequent stop for politicians. They will both speak at the dinner, starting at about 6:30 p.m. ET.
AP: Campaign Now Concentrated In Red States
The Associated Press reports that the candidates will now be focused entirely on swing states now that the debates are over -- in particular, swing states that voted for President Bush last time. McCain has been forced by recent polls to more vigorously defend states like Virginia, Colorado and Florida while Obama will be chasing GOP-leaning states like Missouri over the next few days.
Joe The Plumber Seems To Like McCain
Joe Wurzelbacher, aka "Joe The Plumber," told Katie Couric last night that John McCain delivered a solid performance and that he still doesn't know where Barack Obama stands. He particularly didn't like Obama on taxes. "But, you know, question, so he's going to do that now (raise taxes) for people who make $250,000 a year. When's he going to decide that $100,000 is too much, you know? I mean, you're on a slippery slope here. "
The first snap polls on the debate are out, and they're giving a resounding win to Barack Obama.
In the CBS poll of undecided debate-watchers, 53% say Obama won, only 22% say McCain won, and 24% say it was a tie.
The CNN poll was just read on the air, surveying all debate-watchers in general. It shows 58% saying Obama won, to 31% saying McCain won. Barack Obama's personal ratings are 66% favorable to 33% unfavorable, way ahead of McCain's score of 49%-49%.
Late Update: Some more numbers from the CNN poll were just read on TV. Obama was seen as stating his ideas more clearly by 66%-25%, was seen as the stronger leader by 56%-39%, and was more likable by 70%-22%. McCain did win in one category: He's the candidate who launched more attacks on his opponent, by a whopping 80%-7%.
Late Late Update: Independents, who made up 30% of CNN's sample, gave it to Obama 57%-31%, essentially the same as the overall margin for Obama.
Here's a quick run-down on the rules for tonight's debate, the final such meeting between Barack Obama and John McCain.
The rules are the same as their first debate. The moderator, Bob Schieffer in this case, will pitch a question to one of the candidates, who will then have two minutes to respond. The other candidate will then get two minutes of his own to respond, followed by five minutes of more free-form discussion of the topic.
The official subject area for tonight is domestic issues, but don't be surprised if Schieffer injects some foreign policy into it, just as Jim Lehrer asked questions about the economic crisis in a debate that was officially billed as being on foreign policy.
This debate will have a subtle difference from the last one: The candidates and Schieffer will be seated at a table together, rather than having them standing at distant podiums. This could serve to give the free-form sections a more natural, conversational feel. And if John McCain does choose to talk about Bill Ayers, right up close and personal, it could turn into an even more dramatic moment than it would have been otherwise.
We'll be live-blogging the debate tonight at Election Central.
Tonight: The Final Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain will meet tonight for their final debate, held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. The debate begins at 9 p.m. ET, and will be moderated by Bob Schieffer. Both candidates are under a lot of pressure tonight, but much more so for McCain -- Obama needs to consolidate his lead, while McCain needs to overcome his serious deficit in the polls.
Michelle Obama In Indiana, Joe Biden In Ohio
Barack Obama is off the campaign trail for today, doing the final preparations for tonight's debate. Michelle Obama is campaigning on his behalf at a 12 p.m. ET rally in Fort Wayne, Indiana, before heading to Hempstead for the debate. Joe Biden is swinging through Ohio, with a 10:30 a.m. event in Athens, a 2 p.m. ET event in Lancaster, and a 6 p.m. ET event in Newark.
The Palins Campaigning In New Hampshire
John McCain is spending the day making final preparations for the debate, while Sarah and Todd Palin are campaigning in New Hampshire, where the polls have given Barack Obama the lead. Sarah Palin is holding an 11 a.m. rally in Dover, a 2 p.m. rally in Laconia, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Salem. Alaska's First Dude Todd Palin is touring a factory in Berlin at 11:15 a.m. ET.
McCain Accidentally Stops By Premiere Of W
John McCain left his New York hotel last night and encountered something he probably didn't expect: The premiere of Oliver Stone's movie W, with the theater located right next to his motorcade. McCain quickly got in his car and sped away from there.
Hillary To Attend Debate
In an expression of support for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton will be attending tonight's debate in her home state. Look for reporters to try to comments from her both before the debate and in the spin room afterwards.
Michelle Obama Hosting Chuck Hagel's Wife At Debate
In another public gesture that they are reaching out to moderate Republican voters, the Obama campaign announced that Michelle Obama will be bringing along a guest with her to tonight's debate: Lilibet Hagel, the wife of Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel. Sen. Hagel has taken many steps that have hinted at support for Obama -- most notably accompanying the Democratic candidate on his overseas trip a couple months ago -- but he himself has not made an official public endorsement.
Palin: Dems "Wearing Thin" In Talking About Bush
At a fundraiser last night in New York, Sarah Palin complained about the Democrats talking too much about George W. Bush. "Our opponents spend so much time pretending they are running against the current president. I think it's wearing pretty thin," said Palin. "The American people are really waking up and saying no, the status quo is not one of the boxes to check."
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With two days of post-debate data within these three-day trackers, Barack Obama is ahead by nearly eight points. His support is holding about where it was before the debate, while John McCain's may be declining even further:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, Compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.0%-42.2%, a nearly eight-point lead, compared to a 49.9%-42.6% Obama lead yesterday. In the data collected before the debate, the score was Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%.
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Going into last night's debate, Obama's significant lead over John McCain was holding steady:
• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead yesterday. At 11 points, this is Obama's widest lead in the Gallup poll for this whole campaign so far.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday. That number from yesterday was Obama's all-time highest lead in Rasmussen.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 46%-44% Obama lead yesterday. Note: This poll's partisan weighting a few days ago was 41% Dem to 36% GOP, but has been changed to 40% Dem and 38% GOP.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.8% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% Obama lead yesterday. This is the second day for Zogby's daily tracking poll, and the first day that we're including it in our TPM Track Composite.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.7%-43.2%, compared to a 50.2%-43.2% Obama lead yesterday. Bear in mind that this polling is all from before last night's debate. As such, it does not tell us about the post-debate race, but instead provides us a baseline against which we can measure polls over the next few days.
McCain Ad: "We All Know The Truth" About Obama's Extreme Liberalism
The new post-debate McCain ad doesn't use any debate footage, but is instead a more general spot going after Obama for being a liberal -- and for having something to hide:
"Mr. Obama, we all know the truth," the announcer says sternly.
New Obama Ad: McCain's Health Plan Giveth -- Then Taketh Away
The Obama campaign has a new ad using footage from the debate, continuing their push against John McCain's health-care plan -- something they've clearly identified as an effective wedge issue in the battle for working-class voters:
"He says that he's going to give you a $5,000 tax credit," Obama says. "What he doesn't tell you is that he's going to tax your employer based health care benefits, for the first time ever. So what one hand giveth, the other hand taketh away."
Barack Obama In Indiana, Michelle In New Hampshire, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Indiana, with a rally set to begin at 12:15 p.m. ET. Michelle Obama is holding an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in Keene, New Hampshire. Joe Biden is back on the campaign trail today, with an 8:30 a.m. ET community event in Tampa, Florida, and a 5:30 p.m. ET community event in Fort Myers, Florida.
GOP Ticket In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be holding a rally today in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Then they're off to Strongsville, Ohio, for another joint rally at 5:15 p.m. ET.
Poll: McCain Narrowly Ahead In North Carolina
The new SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina gives John McCain a 49%-46% lead here, within the ±4% margin of error. On the one hand, this is better for McCain than other recent polls showing Barack Obama taking the lead in this Southern state -- but it's not as good as SurveyUSA poll from a month ago, which gave him a 20-point lead.
Polls: Obama Up Ten Points In Wisconsin
Two new polls are giving Barack Obama ten-point leads in Wisconsin, a state that only just barely voted for Al Gore and John Kerry. From SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42%. And from Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44%.
New York Times Condemns McCain The New York Times has a new editorial today lambasting what has become of the McCain campaign. "They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent's record -- into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia," the Times says. "Senator Barack Obama has taken some cheap shots at Mr. McCain, but there is no comparison."
The post-debate snap polls are out, showing that Barack Obama won the debate.
In CNN's poll of debate-watchers, Obama won by a 54%-30% margin. In the CBS poll of uncommitted debate-watchers, Obama won 39%-27%.
The CNN poll's numbers were just read on TV, showing that Obama is seen as better on Iraq by 51%-47%, McCain has a 51%-46% edge on terrorism -- a subject where he's usually done much better than this -- and Obama wins 59%-37% on the economy. On the current financial crisis, Obama wins 57%-36%
Both the first presidential debate and the Veep debate showed the Dem winning -- and both were followed by the Democratic ticket gaining more and more in the polls.
Late Update: Some more numbers from the CNN poll were read just now on the air: Obama is seen as the stronger leader 54%-43%, and is more likable 65%-28%.
In case you haven't read these elsewhere today, here are the rules for tonight's debate.
Tom Brokaw's role as the moderator will take a backseat to the true hosts of this debate: The audience, made up of undecided voters. Brokaw will select an audience member, and then that person will get to pitch his or her pre-submitted question.
The candidates will then have two minutes each to answer the voter's question, followed by Brokaw moderating a one-minute free-form discussion between Obama and McCain, and possibly asking follow-up questions.
The candidates aren't dealing primarily with some well-known TV personality in a suit, but instead with real-live voters, whose own reactions and presentations can have just as much of effect on the race as the candidates' own answers.
We'll be live-blogging the debate here at Election Central.
Tonight: The Second Presidential Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain are meeting tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, for their second debate. The debate will be conducted in a town-hall format, and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.
Obama Ad: McCain "Out Of Ideas, Out Of Touch"
The Obama campaign has this new ad, set to air on national cable, saying that John McCain is trying to change the subject away from the economy with his smears against Barack Obama:
"He's out of ideas, out of touch, and running out of time," the announcer says. "But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down."
McCain Ad: Obama "Hypocritical" On Smear Ads
This new McCain ad, set to air nationally, calls Barack Obama a hypocrite for complaining about misleading TV ads, only to run misleading ads of his own:
"Barack Obama. He promised better," the announcer says. "He lied."
Polls: Obama Up In Battleground States
A new set of CNN polls shows Barack Obama running strong in four key swing states: Obama is up 53%-45% in New Hampshire, 50%-47% in Ohio, 51%-46% in Wisconsin, and is tied with John McCain 49%-49% in North Carolina. The only real bright spot for McCain in this batch is Indiana, where he has a 51%-46% lead.
Michelle Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Michelle Obama will hold a rally today in Jacksonville, North Carolina, set to begin at 1:30 p.m. ET. Joe Biden is still off the campaign trail for today, as his family mourns the death of his mother-in-law.
Palin Touring Florida And North Carolina
Sarah Palin is continuing her tour of the South, with stops today in several Republican stronghold areas within key battleground states. Palin has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Pensacola, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina.
Hagel's Wife To Formally Endorse Obama
Lilibet Hagel, the wife of GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, will formally endorse Barack Obama at a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia. On the one hand, it's been a matter of public record that Mrs. Hagel has donated to Obama -- but this will be viewed by many in the media as a sign that Sen. Hagel himself is supporting Obama.
Anti-Obama Author Detained In Kenya
Jerome Corsi, author of the anti-Obama smear book The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality, has been detained by authorities in Kenya as he set out to conduct a book tour there. Authorities there say Corsi does not have a work permit for his tour.
Here's another Palin flub from last night's debate: She endorsed an economic populist position that McCain opposes, and seemed to present it as the GOP ticket's position.
During the debate, Joe Biden talked about allowing bankruptcy courts to deal with the housing crisis by adjusting the principal amounts that people owe on their mortgages, and added that McCain and Palin don't support it. Palin replied, "That is not so."
In fact, it is so. McCain spokesman Brian Rogers confirmed to ABC News after the debate that McCain doesn't back it.
More flubs to come throughout the day, we suspect, as more and more people get to review the tape.
New Obama Ad Hits McCain And Palin On Health Care Taxes
The Obama campaign is right out of the gate with this post-debate TV ad, set to air on national cable, featuring video of Joe Biden taking apart Sarah Palin on health care:
"Taxing your health care benefit," Biden says. "I call that the "Ultimate Bridge to Nowhere."
Obama In Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Pennsylvania, with an event at 11 a.m. in Abington. Joe Biden does not have any public events.
McCain In Colorado
John McCain is holding a town-hall style event today in Pueblo, Colorado, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Sarah Palin does not have any public events.
WaPo: McCain's Senate Chief Of Staff Is Former Freddie Lobbyist
The Washington Post reports this morning that John McCain's current Senate chief of staff, Mark Buse, was hired by Freddie Mac to lobby McCain back in 2003 and 2004 on the issue of executive pay. Freddie hired Buse specifically because of his closeness to McCain.
Poll: McCain Takes One-Point Lead In Minnesota
A new SurveyUSA poll is giving John McCain a narrow lead in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted Republican since the 1972 Nixon landslide. The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, within the ±3.7% margin of error.
Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In New Hampshire
A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a 53%-43% lead in this swing state, which voted narrowly for George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004. Just a week ago, Rasmsussen gave McCain a 49%-47% lead.
Palin Got Troop Levels Wrong
On top the McClellan/McKiernan gaffe, here's another mistake that Sarah Palin made last night: Getting the number of troops in Iraq wrong. Palin claimed forces are now down to pre-surge levels, FactCheck.org notes, but in reality there are still about 14,000 more troops than were there in January 2007.
So here's a quick explanation of the rules for tonight's vice-presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sara Palin.
The rules will be a lot like the presidential debate we saw last week: One of the candidates will be asked a question and be given 90 seconds to respond -- less than the two minutes from the presidential debate -- followed by a 90-second rebuttal for the other candidate, and then a free-flowing discussion on this between the two candidates. But it won't be quite the same.
The big twist here is that the rules were modified -- at the insistence of the McCain campaign -- to limit those back-and-forth exchanges to a mere two minutes, and not the five-minute periods that we saw at the presidential debate. This was widely seen as an accommodation for Sarah Palin, allowing her to retreat to sound-bites that can fill the time up rather than having to spontaneously take on Joe Biden on the merits of this or that issue.
We'll be live-blogging the debate tonight, right here at Election Central.
Tonight: The Veep Debate
Tonight is the big night for Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, with their debate in St. Louis. The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET. Palin's challenge at this point is simply to overcome the phenomenally low expectations that have been set as a result of her disastrous TV interviews, while Biden will have to both win on points and come across as a friendly alternative.
Poll: Plurality Disapproves Of McCain's Handling Of Economic Crisis
The new CBS/New York Times poll contains a very interesting piece of internal data, suggesting that John McCain's intervention into the bailout negotiations have really been a bust. A 46% plurality disapproves of McCain's handling of the economic crisis, with only 35% approving. By contrast, Obama's more careful approach is approved 44%-32%.
The Obamas In Michigan Today
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Michigan, with a rally scheduled for 9:30 a.m. in Grand Rapids and another at 2:30 p.m. in East Lansing. Michelle Obama is also campaigning in Michigan, with an 11:30 a.m. rally in Saginaw and a 4:30 p.m. community event in Clinton Township.
McCain In Colorado
John McCain is holding a town hall-style event today in Denver, Colorado, scheduled for 5:45 p.m. ET. The event is officially billed as a "women's town hall meeting," so we might see McCain playing up his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate and going after Democrats for criticizing her.
Another Poll Shows Palin Dragging Down McCain
Newly-released data from the ABC/Washington Post poll further illustrates that Sarah Palin has become a liability for John McCain. Only 35% of respondents said Palin has the experience to serve effectively as president, with 60% saying she does not. And 32% say her selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain, compared to only 23% who say it makes them more likely to vote for him.
Poll: Obama Ahead In North Carolina
For the second week in a row, Rasmussen polling shows Barack Obama ahead in North Carolina, a Southern state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the region's favorite son in 1976. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-47% Obama lead last week.
Biden Receives More Coaching On Debating A Woman The Wall St. Journalreports that Joe Biden has received coaching from Hillary Clinton and other female Dem Senators on how to effectively debate against a female candidate, plus Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who has portrayed Sarah Palin in their debate preparations. Meanwhile, the New York Timessays Biden has received advice from a very close long-time adviser: His sister Valerie, who has run his campaigns since 1972.
Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new set of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in all three of the largest swing states: He's up 51%-43% in Florida, 50%-42% in Ohio, and 54%-39% in Pennsylvania, all outside the ±3.4% margins of error. Three weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Obama ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but behind by seven points in Florida. The reason for Obama's surge: The economy.
Bill Clinton Campaigning For Obama Today
Bill Clinton is holding two rallies for Barack Obama today in Florida, after spending months being criticized for showing too little enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee. The first event is at 12 p.m. ET in Orlando, and the next one in Fort Pierce at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Obama In Wisconsin, Then Back To The Senate
Barack Obama has a campaign rally at 11 a.m. ET in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and is then heading back to Washington for a vote on the revised bailout package. Joe Biden does not have any public events, but is preparing for the debate and will also attend the Senate vote. Michelle Obama is holding two rallies today, one at 12 p.m. ET in Boulder, Colorado, and the other at 6:10 p.m. ET in Kansas City, Missouri.
McCain In Missouri And Then Washington, Palin In Debate Camp
John McCain is campaigning this morning in Independence, Missouri, and will then head back to Washington tonight's big Senate vote on the revised bailout. Sarah Palin is off the campaign trail, preparing for tomorrow's debate with Joe Biden.
McCain: I Take Strong Exception To Accusations That My Campaign Is Lying
John McCain met yesterday with the editorial board of the Des Moines Register, where he had a very tense exchange over whether his campaign has been honest in its personal attacks against Barack obama:
McCain was asked how he can inspire confidence with less than 100% absolute truth in his campaign. "Because I've always had 100% absolute truth, and that's been my life of putting my country first, and I'll match that record against anyone's, and I'm proud of it," McCain said. "And an assertion that I've ever done otherwise, I take strong exception to."
So did the first presidential debate actually change anything? Not so, according to CNN -- their poll of polls now shows Barack Obama ahead by 48%-43%, exactly where it was before the debate.
The rub here is that this non-event in the polls effectively helps Obama, as McCain lost a big opportunity to take Obama down a notch in the eyes of the public. This is especially more damaging for McCain in that the national-security debate was supposed to favor him. With the economic crisis accelerating, the next debates could be very good territory for the Dems.
From the pollster's analysis: "The pressure is increasing on McCain to find some way to change the fundamental dynamics of this race. He can't afford to walk away with a tie in the remaining debates."
RNC Ad Bashes Bailout, Says Obama Will Make Things Worse
The new RNC TV ad, targeted for key states, seriously undercuts the attempts at political consensus from President Bush, John McCain and Barack Obama that there should be a bailout, then warns that Obama would make things even worse:
"Meltdown," the announcer says. "Wall St. squanders our money. And Washington is forced to bail them out with -- you guessed it -- our money. Can it get any worse?"
Bill Clinton To Campaign For Obama Tomorrow
The Obama campaign has announced dates for campaign rallies starring Bill Clinton, who has been criticized in many media outlets for showing insufficient enthusiasm for Barack Obama. Bill will hold two rallies tomorrow in Florida, one in Orlando and the other in Fort Pierce.
Obama In Nevada, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is campaigning in the swing state of Nevada today, with an event this morning at the University of Reno. Joe Biden is off the campaign trail, preparing for Thursday's debate with Sarah Palin.
McCain In Iowa, Palin At Debate Camp
John McCain is campaigning today in Iowa, a swing state where Barack Obama has enjoyed a big lead in all the recent polls, with a small business roundtable scheduled for 11 a.m. ET. Sarah Palin is off the campaign trail, cramming for Thursday's debate.
Obama Calls For Expanding FDIC Insurance
Barack Obama is calling for FDIC insurance on bank accounts to be raised from $100,000 to $250,000 in an effort to increase the confidence of small businesses in the banking system. "While that guarantee (of $100,000) is more than adequate for most families, it is insufficient for many small businesses that maintain bank accounts to meet their payroll, buy their supplies, and invest in expanding and creating jobs."
McCain Tries To Rebrand Bailout
Appearing on CNN this morning, John McCain said the bailout plan should instead be called a "rescue effort." Said McCain: "We haven't convinced people that this is a rescue effort not just for Wall Street but for Main Street America."
Palin Facing A Lot Of Pressure For Debate The New York Timesreports today on the anxiety many conservatives are feeling about Sarah Palin, ahead of Thursday's debate. "I think she has pretty thoroughly -- and probably irretrievably -- proven that she is not up to the job of being president of the United States," said former Bush speechwriter David Frum. "If she doesn't perform well, then people see it."
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today. Barack Obama continues to hold a big lead in post-debate polling:
• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 50%-43%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead by a margin of 49.8%-43.1%, basically the same as yesterday's 49.7%-42.9% lead.
These three-day poll numbers include two days of sampling from after the debate. During that time, Obama's lead has shot up in the polls, indicating that he walked away the political winner of their first face-off.
And here's something noteworthy: The Hotline poll also shows that there has been a very serious movement in the candidates' favorable ratings. Three days ago, they were essentially the same: Obama was at 54% favorable and 39% unfavorable, McCain 54%-38%. But now it's Obama 57%-36%, and McCain 50%-43%. In short, it looks like McCain's attacks during the debate may have just hurt his own numbers, while Obama's have improved.
McCain Campaign Orders Palin To Sedona For Debate-Cramming The Wall St. Journalreports that Sarah Palin will be headed to John McCain's Sedona ranch this week for a few days of intensive debate preparation, in the wake of her problematic interview with Katie Couric. In particular, a McCain adviser said the goal will be for her debate answers to be "her words," and not campaign talking points that she's had trouble reciting properly.
Obama In Colorado, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is campaigning in the key swing state of Colorado today, with a campaign event scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET in Denver. Joe Biden does not have any public events.
McCain And Palin In Ohio
John McCain and Sarah Palin are holding another one of their joint rallies today, scheduled for 12 p.m. ET in Columbus, Ohio.
Biden Prepping For Debate
Joe Biden is reportedly receiving advice from Hillary Clinton and Dianne Feinstein for his upcoming debate with Sarah Palin, presumably on how to carry himself while debating a female politician. Some Dems are worried that if Biden goes after Palin too aggressively, he could come off as a bully picking on a female candidate.
Former McCain Campaign Manager: He Needs to Be Less Dramatic
Former McCain campaign manager John Weaver told the Los Angeles Times that McCain's reaction to the financial crisis may have backfired. "It was all very dramatic, but maybe the American public is tired of drama after the last eight years," said Weaver. "John needs to demonstrate he has a steady hand. He needs to be a bit more measured."
NYT: Pro-Obama Unions Encountering Race As An Obstacle The New York Timesreports that while unions canvassing for Barack Obama have had some success with economic issues, racism is still a problem. "I think race is playing a major part," said a painters' union activist in Wisconsin. "I think that's why some people say, 'Isn't he a Muslim?'"
Obama Ad: McCain Said "Zero" About Middle Class
The Obama campaign is quick out the gate with this new TV ad on the economy, criticizing McCain for saying nothing about the concerns of the middle class during the debate:
"Number of minutes in debate: 90," the announcer says. "Number of times John McCain mentioned the middle class: Zero."
McCain Ad: Obama Plays Politics With Soldiers' Lives
The McCain campaign has their own national TV ad, which doesn't make any reference to the debate. The ad accuses Obama of playing politics with soldiers' lives when he voted against funding the Iraq War, using year-old footage of Joe Biden criticizing Democrats who voted against funding:
"Barack Obama: Playing politics, risking lives," the announcer says. "Not ready to lead."
Dem Ticket In North Carolina And Virginia
Barack Obama and Joe Biden are holding a rally this afternoon in Greensboro, North Carolina, which began at 12:15 p.m. ET. Later on today, they have a rally in Fredericksburg, Virginia, with them scheduled to speak at 6:30 p.m. ET.
McCain Back In Washington
John McCain is off the campaign trail today, instead going back to WAshington t participate in negotiations on the Wall St. bailout.
Hillary Campaigning In Michigan
Hillary Clinton is campaigning on behalf of the Democratic ticket today in Michigan. First up is a rally scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET in Grand Ledge, then a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Grand Rapids. Finally, Hillary will do a rally at 6:30 p.m. ET in Flint.
Focus Group: McCain's Negativity Backfired In Debate Timereports that a focus group run by Dem pollster Stan Greenberg found an interesting result for the debate: Voting decisions were not changed among undecided voters, but the perception of John McCain as a negative campaigner was strengthened immensely. Before the debate, McCain was seen as more negative by a seven-point margin, and then by a 26-point margin afterward -- and for his trouble, Barack Obama's numbers on readiness to be president actually increased. Thus, it appears that McCain's decision to go on the offensive in this debate only backfired.
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today. Barack Obama continues to hold a big lead in post-debate polling:
