Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:
Mahoney's Re-Election Chances Downgraded
In a move that shouldn't really surprise anybody, the pundits are reclassifying Congressman Tim Mahoney's (D-FL) re-election chances in the wake of revelations that he had an affair with a former staffer and allegedly paid over $121,000 in hush money. Stuart Rothenberg has changed the race from from "Toss-UP/Tilt Democratic" to "Pure Toss-Up," and Charlie Cook has shifted it from "Lean Democratic" to "Lean Republican."
Another Poll Shows Al Franken Ahead In Minnesota
The new Quinnipiac poll in Minnesota gives Al Franken a slender lead in the Minnesota Senate race: Franken 38%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 36%, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley at 18%, with a ±3% margin of error. Quinnipiac's previous poll from three weeks ago gave Coleman a 49%-42% lead in a two-way race, but a lot has happened since then with the economy. It should also be noted that a recent Rasmussen poll did not show Barkley definitively siphoning more votes from one major candidate or the other.
Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:
Foley Successor Embroiled In Own Allegations of Misconduct
Democrats could end up losing a key Florida House seat that they picked up in 2006: The district of the infamous former GOP Rep. Mark Foley. Freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney reportedly agreed to pay $121,000 to a former female staffer and alleged mistress, after she threatened to sue him. Mahoney is facing a competitive challenge from GOP candidate Tom Rooney.
Dem Ad: Norm Coleman Is "Shameless"
The DSCC has this new ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), lampooning his recent announcement that he'll suspend negative advertisement as a ploy to avoid responsibility for his own misleading attacks and personal scandals:
"Suit from Neiman Marcus: $1,400. Misleading attack ads paid for by you and your allies: $6.8 million," the announcer says. "Calling for a suspension of negative ads after smearing your opponent? Shameless."
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:
Coleman Suspends Negative Ads, Sort Of
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who has fallen behind in the polls against Al Franken thanks to the economic crisis and voter backlash against the negative turn that the campaign has taken, has announced that he is pulling all of his negative ads, and will only run positive spots. There is a loophole here, though: The Coleman campaign can cancel its own negative advertising, but the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and outside groups will still be able to run as many attacks against Al Franken as they want.
Franken Camp: Our Ads Against Coleman's Record Are Staying
In a statement released to the media, Al Franken's campaign declared that they'll keep their attack ads against Norm Coleman running: "Given that this week's polls are clearly showing that Minnesotans are sick of Norm Coleman's campaign of character assassination, today's stunt rings as a cynical ploy designed to change the subject and avoid scrutiny of his own record. It's like an arsonist burning down every house in the village and then asking to be named fire chief."
Veterans Group To McConnell: Take Down Ad That Uses Our Name
The Military Order of the Purple Heart is demanding that the campaign of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell pull an ad in which a McConnell supporter identifies himself as a member of the organization and appears to speak on its behalf:
"I am a member of the Military Order of the Purple Heart, the official organization of combat-wounded veterans," says Lee Moore. "Our veterans demand an investigation into the negligent care that Bruce Lunsford's clinics provided." Moore then goes on to accuse Lunsford of manipulating an 83-year old veteran who appeared in a Lunsford ad defending the candidate. Lee Moore is not a spokesman for the group, and furthermore its bylaws forbid it from being involved in partisan politics.
Poll: Dem Narrowly Ahead For Heather Wilson's House Seat
A new Albuquerque Journal poll shows a close race for the open seat of Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), who left the seat open when she ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for the Senate. The numbers: Democratic Martin Heinrich 43%, Republican Darren White 41%, within the ±4.9% margin of error.
Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: The bailout and the economic crisis continue to dominate the campaigns -- which is never good news for the GOP -- while the Republicans are fending off the attacks by charging that the Dems don't have any solutions, either.
Al Franken Opposes Bailout Bill
Al Franken has put out a press release strongly opposing the bailout bill, which incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman voted for: "Last night the United States Senate voted to take $700 billion from taxpayers who did nothing wrong and offer it as a sacrifice at the altar of financial mismanagement."
Smith And Merkley Joust Over The Bailout
Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR) is criticizing the bailout package, as well: "I have dedicated much of my life to advocating for consumers and I believe it is just wrong to spend $700 billion of taxpayer money to bailout the very Wall Street financiers who created this crisis." Incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has fired back at Merkley, saying Merkley has "shamefully placed his partisan ambitions ahead of the retirement, financial and economic security of the people he seeks to serve."
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: National Democrats are spending big, but a new round of polling could give the GOP some hope in key races.
Lieberman Defends GOPer Norm Coleman From Dem Attacks, Says Iraq War Had Proper Oversight
Joe Lieberman has put out a statement on behalf of Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), disputing Al Franken's attack that Coleman didn't do enough to provide oversight over Iraq contracts while he chaired an important subcommittee. "It is simply untrue, and irresponsible, to suggest that while Norm Coleman was investigating corruption here at home, that investigations in Iraq were not going on," Lieberman wrote.
National Dems Shell Out Big Bucks For Attack Ads Today
The DCCC has spent over $1.5 million today for their new wave of attack ads, according to the FEC newest filings. Money is being spent in 14 races across ten states, most notably $310,000 for three seats in John McCain's home state of Arizona. Here's one of those ads, targeting the Republican challenger against freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ):
Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems are leveraging their big financial advantage over the GOP into an extensive round of attack ads against the Republicans, in order to pick up some usually-tough seats this November.
National Dems Launch New Wave Of Attack Ads In House Races
The DCCC has launched a major TV attack ad offensive in districts across the country, some of them defending Dem-held seats but others running in GOP-held areas that are traditionally very difficult for the Dems. Ads will be running in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Here's one of the ads, running in a deep-red New Mexico district:
New York GOP Trying To Dump Candidate For Key House Seat
The race for the open seat of scandal-plagued Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) just keeps getting weirder, with Manhattan Republicans now nominating unpopular GOP nominee Bob Straniere for an open judgeship as a means of getting him to drop out of the race -- but Straniere is refusing. National Republicans feel that their chances of holding the seat could potentially improve if they can substitute Fossella himself as the new candidate, but they're not optimistic that it will actually happen.
Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: An avalanche of polls shows the Democrats running ahead or close behind in several seats that have been in GOP hands for years -- suggesting the possibility of major Dem gains.
GOP Rep's Ad: I'm Sorry I Went On An Abramoff Trip
This ad needs to be seen to be believed. Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), who is facing a spirited challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas, has this new ad in which he speaks to the camera and abjectly apologizes for going on an Abramoff-sponsored trip five years ago:
"I embarrassed myself, embarrassed you, and for that I'm very sorry," Feeney says.
Polls Show Big House Races In Ohio This Year
A new set of SurveyUSA polls in Ohio show Dems poised to pick up two out of four contested GOP-held district. In the First District, incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is holding a small lead over challenger Steve Driehaus (D) 46%-44%. In the Second District, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is holding an 8-point lead over challenger Victoria Wulsin (D) 48%-40%. But in the open 15th and 16th Districts Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has a 47%-42% lead over Steve Stivers (R), and John Boccieri (D) has a 49%-41% lead over Kirk Schuring (R).
Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: The momentum so far today seems to be with the Dems, with some decent poll numbers and strong ad campaigns.
Stevens Tries To Get Ads Against Him Pulled
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) has called upon local TV and radio stations to stop running DSCC ads that attack him for getting an unreasonably good deal on a car thanks to a wealthy donor, and for steering private consultant jobs to his son Ben. Only a few stations honored his complaints that the ads are deceptive, but even they are once more continuing to run them.
Poll: Dems Winning Both Congressional Races In Deep-Red Alaska
A new Research 2000 poll has the Dems winning both the Senate and House races in Alaska, despite the presence of Gov. Sarah Palin on the national ticket. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is beating Sen. Ted Stevens by a 50%-44% margin, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz is beating scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Young by a 53%-39% margin, with a ±4% margin of error.
Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: It's shaping up to be a pretty good day for the Dems, with good poll results and new lines of attack emerging against their Republican opponents in key races.
Conservative Drops Out In Race For Fossella's Seat -- Could Vito Come Back?
Paul Atanasio, the New York Conservative Party's candidate for the open seat of scandal plagued Rep. Vito Fossella, has dropped out of the race via a nomination for a judgeship. This method of withdrawal allows the party to replace him on the ballot with a new candidate -- creating the small possibility that Fossella himself, who is said to be looking at a way to get back into the race, could re-enter on the Conservative line. We'll be looking into this further.
Shaheen Goes After Sununu on Stem Cells, Wall Street
Dem Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen is stepping up attacks on incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R-NH). Shaheen is hitting Sununu on the financial crisis, blaming the lack of federal oversight and Sununu's lack of leadership on the Senate Banking Committee, and next week she'll be campaigning with Michael J. Fox for increased federal funding for stem-cell research.
Here's this evening's rundown on the Congressional races: We've got a whole lot of ads running in these campaigns, with the GOP mounting a huge negative offensive in an effort to minimize their losses this November.
New Coleman Ad: Here's How Al Franken Will Attack Me
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has this new ad out, warning voters of the kind of attack ads they'll be seeing from Al Franken, with unflattering pictures of Coleman and scary music:
The odd part here is that Coleman himself is running just the kind of ad against Franken that he decries here, with video and scary music to depict Franken as a foul-mouthed clown.
NRSC Ad Attacks "Boulder Liberal" Udall In Colorado Race
The NRSC is running this attack ad in the Colorado Senate race, where Dem Congressman Mark Udall is running ahead in the polls. The ad repeatedly attacks Udall for being from Boulder, a liberal stronghold of this Western swing state:
Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: The money is flowing like water, as more and more candidates in close races are hitting the airwaves.
Senate GOP Candidates In Possible Financial Hot Water Over Ad Errors
The FEC and FCC are now examining complaints in four states -- Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and Virginia -- involving the failure of Republican Senate candidates to have their approval disclaimers run for the appropriate length of time in their ads. If the complaints pan out, these candidates would have to pay a higher rate for their TV advertising for the rest of the campaign -- though it's unlikely that the agencies will actually take such a step over this error.
Millions of Dollars Being Pumped Into New Hampshire Senate Rae
The money is flowing heavily into the New Hampshire Senate race, where first-term GOP Sen. John Sununu has trailed former Dem Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in the polls. Between the candidates themselves, their party committees, and outside groups, over $5.4 million has been spent for TV ads on the state's biggest station, WMUR.
DNC Out-Raises RNC For First Time This Cycle
The Democratic National Committee has announced that they raised $27.7 million for the month of July, just edging out the RNC's $26 million, the first time this whole cycle that the usually-underfunded DNC has outdone the RNC. The DNC, including its joint committee with the Obama campaign, has $28.5 million cash on hand, bringing the Democratic total with the Obama campaign to $94.3 million -- just narrowly behind the Republicans' aggregate total of over $100 million on hand.
Obama Leaves Hawaii
Barack Obama's Hawaiian has come to an end last night, as the candidate left the islands to head back to the mainland and the campaign trail. Between now and November, it will be practically nothing but non-stop campaigning.
Obama And McCain To Appear At Saddleback Church Tonight
Barack Obama and John McCain will both be at Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Church tonight, where they will take questions separately from Warren on various national issues. Note that this is not a debate, in which the candidates would take questions simultaneously, though they are expected to share the stage for a brief photo opportunity. The event is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET.
Loretta Sanchez: Half Of House Dems Could Vote For Hillary At Convention
In an indication that the Democratic Convention could unintentionally give an appearance of Democratic disunity, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez of California is predicting that up to half of the House Dems could end up voting for Hillary Clinton under an open roll call. "I felt she was the most experienced and the best candidate and I still feel that way," Sanchez added -- though for the record, it should be noted that Hillary herself has said she personally plans on voting for Obama.
McCain: Western State Water Compact Should Be Reopened
John McCain may have just gotten in trouble in the key swing state of Colorado, tellingThe Pueblo Chieftain that the 1922 water compact among Western states should be renegotiated. Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar responded by saying Mccain's position is "absolutely wrong and would only happen over my dead body," and that Colorado should fear losing more its water resources if negotiations are opened up again.
GOP Senate Candidate: Feds Raking In Cash On The Backs Of Oil Companies
And speaking of Colorado, the campaign of Democratic Senate nominee Mark Udall is sending around this tracker audio of Republican nominee Bob Schaffer complaining that the federal government is taking too much money from the oil companies. "But because prices are soaring, the reality is the federal government is raking in a bunch of cash right now on the backs of energy producers," Schaffer says -- perhaps not the most popular message this year:
Bob Perry, the wealthy businessman who bankrolled the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth to the tune of several million dollars, has a new cause: He's lavishing huge funds on the conservative group Club for Growth, which is in turn putting big money behind GOP candidates in key Senate races.
Perry has just plowed a whopping $400,000 into the coffers of the Club for Growth, the big right-wing group that advocates for conservative economic policies, the latest FEC records show.
Club For Growth, in turn, is now spending about $227,000 of that money to air an attack ad in Colorado against Mark Udall, who is the presumptive Dem nominee is going up against scandal-plagued GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer. The battle is playing out in a state where Dems have made strong gains after many years of Republican dominance.
Polls show Udall leading Schaffer by a fairly consistent margin in the mid-single digits. So Schaffer will be relying on wealthy funders like Perry to be funding, via Club for Growth, attack ad campaigns that just might enable him to hang on to his seat despite the scandals engulfing him.
At any rate, the big Swift-Boat-Vet financier now has a new cause.
A new survey of Colorado by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack Obama's lead holding steady in this Western swing state, a historically Republican area that Barack Obama is making a major play for thanks to its own Democratic shift in recent years.
The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a margin of error of ±3.2%. This is essentially unchanged from the 47%-43% lead that Obama had in PPP's last poll from a month ago. The internals show the two candidates tied at 47% each among male voters, and Obama taking the lead thanks to a 49%-42% edge with women.
Also, the poll gives Dem candidate Mark Udall a 47%-41% lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in this state's open Senate race, in which the two candidates are competing to succeed retiring GOPer Wayne Allard.
If John McCain can't hold on to Colorado, which has only voted Dem once in the last 40 years, the road suddenly looks steep for him: Unless he can pick up a Kerry state to balance it out, he'd need to sweep Florida, Ohio and Virginia, plus take either Iowa or New Mexico -- and Obama has been well ahead in recent polls for those last two.
Yet more evidence of just how abysmal the GOP brand is these days?
Nine of 12 targeted Republicans running in the most competitive Senate races this fall are either skipping the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., or have not decided whether to attend.
Among those who will not attend are Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is not close to presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is a McCain loyalist. Stevens and Collins will use the convention week to focus on their campaigns.
Also sending regrets is former Rep. Bob Schaffer of Colorado, running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard.
Six others -- Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Gordon Smith of Oregon and challengers John Kennedy of Louisiana and Rep. Steve Pearce of New Mexico are still on the fence. Their spokesman offered responses ranging from "there are no plans yet" to "no decisions have been made."
By contrast, most of the Dems in those races will be going to the Dem convention. Pretty telling stuff.
A new survey of Colorado by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack obama with a narrow lead in this swing state, which has been trending from red to blue very quickly in the last few years.
The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 43%, with a margin of error of ±3%. Other recent polls have also shown Obama with a narrow lead in this state.
In this poll, McCain has a 46%-45% lead among white voters, but Obama dominates 58%-34% with Hispanics, a demographic where some had doubted he'd do well. The key to watch for in Colorado will be what percentage of the state's voters will be Hispanics. "The higher that number is, the more likely it will be that Barack Obama is victorious," the pollster concludes.
Also, some good news for Dems in the Senate race: Democratic candidate Mark Udall leads Republican Bob Schaffer by a 47%-39% margin, in the race for this open GOP-held seat.
A bunch of new polls of Senate races around the country paint a very bright picture of the Democrats' prospects, with Dem candidates running strong all over the map. But it's not entirely good news:
• In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Democrat Mark Udall ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer by a 48%-38% margin, for an open Republican-held seat.
• In New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg way ahead of Republican Dick Zimmer, by a 45%-28% margin.
• In Mississippi, Rasmussen gives appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker a statistically insignificant 48%-47% edge over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove -- not significantly changed since their last poll from a month ago that put Musgrove ahead 47%-46%, despite an extensive ad campaign by Wicker in this deep-red state. Keep an eye on this one.
• In Texas, a new poll from Texas Lyceum gives incumbent Republican John Cornyn an insignificant 38%-36% lead over Democrat Rick Noriega -- a very high number of undecideds in a race featuring an incumbent who has been elected statewide on multiple occasions.
• The one sore spot is Minnesota, where Al Franken continues to trail incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Quinnipiac puts it at Coleman 51%, Franken 41% -- a bad sign for Dems, if the Republican is above 50% in this blue state.
Late Update: This post originally used numbers from an incorrect page at Rasmussen's site for the Mississippi race. It has been corrected.
The ad wars are in full swing in the Colorado Senate race, a top-priority race for national Dems, who view this seat as a major pickup opportunity in a Western state that's trending blue.
And here's another sign of just how high-priority this race has become: The League of Conservation voters is pumping nearly $240,000 into the race, running this ad slamming GOP candidate Bob Schaffer as a tool of Big Oil:
The right knows that green issues are big in Colorado -- you might remember the goofy ad we showed you last week from a conservative group, using flowery cartoon imagery to pitch Schaffer as a friend of the environment.
National Dems are bullish about expanding their Senate majority, given that they're dramatically out-raising the GOP and that they have the Republicans on defense in multiple states.
And here comes the first wave of ads from Dem Senate candidates, a sign that Dems are aggressively shifting into general election mode, even if the presidential race hasn't quite finished yet.
Here's the new ad from Jeanne Shaheen, who is running ahead of incumbent John Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race:
Check out this funny ad from a group called Coloradans for Economic Growth, promoting Republican candidate Bob Schaffer in the state's top-tier Senate race. The ad attempts to sell the right-wing Schaffer to voters concerned about the environment:
It would appear that what business interests think environmentalist voters want to see is ... a bunch of flowery images in what otherwise looks like a Nasonex commercial.
Attack ads are common in politics, but it's not everyday that a spot ties a conservative candidate in a key race to forced abortions -- in this case involving TPMmuckraker "star" Bob Schaffer and the Marianas sweatshops.
This new third-party ad in the open Colorado Senate race was created by pro-campaign finance reform group Campaign Money Watch, and is set to air in the socially conservative Colorado Springs media market over the next two weeks. Its emphasis on the forced abortions in the Marianas seems clearly designed to alienate Schaffer from the GOP's Christian conservative base:
"Schaffer was supposed to be investigating sweatshops, where women workers were forced to have abortions," the voiceover says. "But he says, 'I did not observe a forced abortion.'"
The Democratic candidate has built up a strong financial advantage in the open Colorado Senate race, a key opportunity for a Dem pickup where the polls have been very close thus far.
The numbers for the first quarter: Congressman Mark Udall (D) took in $1.46 million, and has $4.2 million on hand. Former Congressman Bob Schaffer took in $1.02 million, with $2.2 million on hand.
We've been covering Schaffer's past ties to Jack Abramoff at TPMmuckraker.
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