Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Dems Throw Over $12 Million Into House Races
The DCCC launched a massive financial assault on the Republicans yesterday, with over $12.6 million in spending for over 50 races in the latest set of FEC filings. The single biggest expenditure was $643,000 against Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV). Six-figure amounts were spent on an astonishing 40 House races. By contrast, the NRCC only spent $1.07 million in the latest filings.

Poll: Murtha Now In Tight Race
A new Susquehanna poll shows that Jack Murtha could be in trouble in his usually-safe seat in the wake of his public comments about his constituents being racist rednecks. The numbers: Murtha 46%, retired Army Lt. Col. Bill Russell (R) 41%, with a ±4.9% margin of error.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Bachmann: It Is "Absolutely A Lie" That I Questioned Obama's Patriotism
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) told the Washington Times that people are lying about her McCarthyite rant on Hardball last week. "I did not question Barack Obama's patriotism, I did not say he was anti-American," Bachmann said. "And the other accusation is that I was calling for members of Congress to be investigated on their anti-American views. That's absolutely a lie."

House GOPer's Ad: Dem Opponent Favors Driver's License For 9/11 Hijacker
Check out this new TV ad from Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), who is facing a very tough re-election battle. The ad accuses Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas of favoring driver's licenses for illegal-alien terrorists -- using a picture of 9/11 hijacker Muhammad Atta:

Feeney's problems here stem from his having been implicated in the Jack Abramoff scandals, and he's gone so far as to tape an ad in which he abjectly apologized for it. The Democrats have released internal polling showing him losing in a landslide, but he clearly thinks that playing the terrorism card could help him recover in this GOP-leaning district.

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Coleman: I Won't Say War Was A Mistake, For The Sake Of The Dead
At a debate last night in the Minnesota Senate race, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) reiterated his position that he will not say the Iraq War was as mistake. Coleman put it in very stark terms: "I will not tell the parents of any kid who has died in Iraq that their son died because of a mistake. I simply will not do that."

GOP Poll: Mahoney Way Down
We usually don't cover internal polls, but this one probably deserves some attention. The campaign of House candidate Tom Rooney (R-FL) has put out a poll showing Rooney defeating scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent Tim Mahoney by a whopping 55%-29%. We'll probably see an independent poll of this race soon, and don't be too surprised if it also shows Mahoney losing.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Coleman Rebrands Himself As The "Hope" Candidate
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who dramatically announced that he was canceling his negative ads when poll data showed him falling behind Al Franken, is aggressively rebranding himself with some familiar language. The new example: Coleman kicked off a bus tour this morning with the title "The Hope Express." It should be said: Coleman has quite a bit of audacity.

GOP Keeps Up The Attacks Against Franken
Norm Coleman's declaration that he didn't want to run negative ads doesn't seem to have bothered the NRSC, who are making up the difference for him. Here's their new attack ad against Al Franken:

"Al Franken: He'd make things worse," the announcer says. This slogan has come up in multiple ads from the GOP. It's not clear just how effective it could be for an incumbent party to admit that things are bad, and then argue that the other guys shouldn't get elected because they would make it worse.

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Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races:

McConnell Ad Ties Lunsford To Schumer And New York
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who is facing a tough challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, has this incredible ad out tying Lunsford to the New York liberalism of DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer:

"And this guy wants to put a New Yawk Senadduh in Kentucky," the announcer says, in a hammed-up New York City accent. "Fuggedaboudit."

Gordon Smith: Palin Is A Great Governor For California
Some Republicans have taken to exaggerating Sarah Palin's qualifications, but this is just ridiculous. In a funny verbal slip-up in last night's Senate debate in Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith referred to Sarah Palin as an effective governor for California:

"I've met Sarah Palin once, she's a lovely person," Smith said. "She's a great governor of California, she's a strong executive."

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Veterans Group To McConnell: Take Down Ad That Uses Our Name
The Military Order of the Purple Heart is demanding that the campaign of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell pull an ad in which a McConnell supporter identifies himself as a member of the organization and appears to speak on its behalf:

"I am a member of the Military Order of the Purple Heart, the official organization of combat-wounded veterans," says Lee Moore. "Our veterans demand an investigation into the negligent care that Bruce Lunsford's clinics provided." Moore then goes on to accuse Lunsford of manipulating an 83-year old veteran who appeared in a Lunsford ad defending the candidate. Lee Moore is not a spokesman for the group, and furthermore its bylaws forbid it from being involved in partisan politics.

Poll: Dem Narrowly Ahead For Heather Wilson's House Seat
A new Albuquerque Journal poll shows a close race for the open seat of Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), who left the seat open when she ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for the Senate. The numbers: Democratic Martin Heinrich 43%, Republican Darren White 41%, within the ±4.9% margin of error.

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Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races.

Franken: My Ads Are About Norm Coleman's Record -- So They're Negative
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) debated last night against Al Franken and Independency Party candidate Dean Barkley. Franken got off this zinger when asked what he would do about negative ads that have taken over the race on all sides: "We've been running ads against Norm Coleman's record. So they're negative."

Franken: I'll Keep On Impersonating Wellstone
At a rally over the weekend featuring Al Gore, Al Franken declared that he would not be deterred from doing his goofy impression of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, who would manically shout "You can take this guy!" at his son's track and field meets. The GOP has been using video of Franken impersonating his departed friend and twisting it to look like Franken himself was being crazy and unstable.

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Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: Republicans are reacting to the economic crisis and the bad poll numbers with some apparently twisted and phony attacks against the Dems.

GOP Accused Of Twisting Video Of Franken
It looks like the NRSC, in their zeal to paint Al Franken as angry and unstable, have seriously twisted some key video out of context. Minnesota blog MNPublius found that the NRSC repeatedly used in their TV ads video of Franken yelling out, "You can take this guy!" in a manic fashion -- but it looks like he was doing an impression of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone at his son's track and field meets. Here's the original video:

McConnell Campaign Accused Of Lying To Veteran For Campaign Ad
Oh boy. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) has been airing attack ads charging that a chain of veterans' clinics run by Dem opponent Bruce Lunsford have offered inferior care. However, it turns out one of the veterans in the ad now says he was lied to and his words taken totally out of context. Now that same veteran is doing a Lunsford ad:

"Tricking veterans, twisting their words -- how low will Mitch McConnell go?" the announcer says. In response, McConnell has a revised ad without that particular veteran, and with other veterans who directly blast Lunsford by name.

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races: The economy continues to dominate the down-ticket races, and it's looking more and more like Dems stand to make significant gains off the crisis.

Cook Report: Dems Could Potentially Reach 60 Senate Seats
Charlie Cook writes in his latest column that although it remains a long-shot, the chances have gone up considerably for Democrats to reach 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. "Today, holding its losses down to four seats would be manna from heaven for the GOP," Cook writes. "Party leaders would take a five- or six-seat loss in stride, given the circumstances."

Dem Ad: Social Security Privatization A Roller-Coaster Ride On Wall St.
Check out this ad from the DCCC, reminding voters that GOP candidates who want to invest Social Security funds in the stock market don't exactly have a strong case in light of the current financial crisis. This one targets Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican nominee for an open GOP-held seat in Missouri:

"But Luetkemeyer supports privatizing Social Security, risking your retirement on the Wall St. roller-coaster," the announcer says, as the camera progresses to the top of a roller-coaster. "So if you or a loved one plan to depend on Social Security, hold on tight."

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: More polls show that the Democrats have a very good chance of picking up some tough seats, thanks to the economic crisis and anti-incumbent fervor -- but they might also lose a few of their own.

Poll: Dems' New Hampshire House Seats in Danger
A new Univ. of New Hampshire poll shows that former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) is leading incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) by a 45%-42% margin, in his comeback attempt after she defeated him two years ago. In the state's other district, freshman Rep. Paul Hodes (D) is leading his challenger Jennifer Horn (R) by a 38%-33% margin, with a very high undecided number that should be of serious concern to the incumbent.

Poll: Alaska Senate Race Close, House Race Getting Closer
A new Ivan Moore poll of Alaska shows challenger Mark Begich (D) leading incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (R) by a 48%-46% margin, compared to 49%-46% three weeks ago. The same poll shows Ethan Berkowitz (D) losing his once 17-point lead over incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) from just three weeks ago to now just a 49%-44% lead.

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: The political attacks today have been particularly rough, with candidates being charged with exporting jobs, crafting legislation to benefit themselves financially -- and writing pornography.

NRSC Ad: Al Franken Jokes About Rape, Physically Assaults People
Wow. The NRSC's new ad against Al Franken doesn't pull any punches, calling him "unfit for office" due in part to the many sick jokes he's told over the years as a comedian:

"Franken writes about committing rape," the announcer says. "Franken writes pornography so vile, Democrats denounced it."

Poll: Minnesota Senate Race A Dead Heat
A new Rasmussen poll confirms just how close the Minnesota Senate race is -- and explains why both sides are busy running the nastiest attack ads they can think of. The numbers: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 48%, Al Franken (D) 47%, within the ±4% margin of error. Last month, the two of them were tied 45%-45%.

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Here's the rundown on today's Congressional races: The theme for today is ethics -- and how everyone is saying their opponents don't have any.

House Dems Demand DOJ Get Involved In Miss. Senate Race
A group of Congressional Dems led by House Judiciary chairman John Conyers (D-MI) are now demanding Justice Department intervention in the Mississippi Senate race, where GOP officials are tying to bury the race at the bottom of the ballot. "What we have here is a clear intent to confuse voters," said Mississippi Dem Congressman Bennie Thompson, in a press release from the group.

Dem Candidate Ties Himself To McCain In Deep-Red Kentucky
Bruce Lunsford, the Democratic businessman running against Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) has an interesting strategy in his new ad. Since he's running a state that is likely to go to John McCain by a very wide margin, he's tying himself to McCain's own condemnations of Republican corruption:

"John McCain singled out Mitch McConnell on corruption," the announcer says. In a way, this is essentially the mirror image of Republicans like Sen. Gordon Smith and Rep. Christopher Shays, who have tied themselves to Barack Obama in their much bluer states.

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Well how about that. We now have a seventh Republican continuing to spread the myth that China is drilling for oil off American shores: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, a Christian Right champion from Colorado, repeated the idea to the Fort Collins Coloradoan.

The Coloradoan immediately called Musgrave on it, causing her to then refer them to her staff. To his credit, her chief of staff told the paper that she misspoke -- which is more than we've personally seen from other Republicans we've encountered.

Musgrave faces a tough race against Betsy Markey, a former top aide to Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar.

So, will Musgrave no longer repeat the myth, assuming her chief of staff has informed her of the facts, or will we be hearing it from her again?

The Democratic primary field is now cleared in Colorado's Fourth District. Eric Eidsness, a former Reagan Administration official and 2006 Reform Party nominee, has dropped out of the Democratic race.

This leaves the nomination to Betsy Markey, a former aide to U.S. Senator Ken Salazar, to take on Republican Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave.

A 2006 House candidate who came close to knocking off a Republican incumbent has now ended her 2008 campaign for the seat.

Former Colorado state Representative Angie Paccione, who lost to right-wing Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave in a 46%-43% race, had declared her new campaign late in the Spring, but dropped out of the race today.

This leaves two candidates for the Democratic nomination: Betsy Markey, the establishment favorite and a former aide to U.S. Senator Ken Salazar; and Eric Eidsness, a former Reagan Administration official who ran in 2006 as the Reform Party candidate, but recently switched to the Dems. Markey is heavily favored to win the nomination.

Religious Right Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave might again face her 2006 third-party opponent in 2008 — but this time running on the Democratic line. The Longmont Daily Times-Call reports that Eric Eidsness, an ex-Republican who ran as the Reform Party candidate last year, has now changed his registration to the Democrats and is gearing up to seek the Dem nod against Musgrave. The centrist Eidsness is a former Naval Officer who was also appointed by President Reagan to a position in the Environmental Protection Agency back in the 1980's, and took 11% of the vote last fall, while Musgrave was reelected by a 46%-43% margin.

Eidsness has been publicly welcomed to the Democrats, though the nomination might not be his for the taking. Other possible candidates are taking a look at the race, and some Democrats might bear ill will towards Eidsness — while his votes came largely from disaffected Republican-leaning moderates, it's also possible he might have also helped Musgrave win reelection by taking votes that would have otherwise gone to Democratic nominee Angie Paccione, who is also considering another run.

"Just as Congress passed legislation to help residents suffering economic losses in the wake of hurricanes throughout the South, I introduced this bill to aid ranchers in our region of the country devastated by back-to-back blizzards."

— Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, R-CO, comparing the damage from the recent Colorado blizzards to the devastation of Hurricane Katrina in a new press release.

CQ Politics is reporting that Dems are now "surging" in Colorado, and it has changed its ratings of two races accordingly: The contest between Dem Ed Perlmutter and GOPer Rick O'Donnell has moved from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic," while the race between Dem Rep. John Salazar and GOP challenger Scott Tipton moves from "Leans Democratic" to the less-competitive "Democrat Favored." Relatedly, Kos points to an internal poll done by Dem challenger Angie Paccione showing her in a dead heat with GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, and asks: "Is it real? Accurate? If so, she may have weathered one of the fiercest full frontal assaults of any Democrat this cycle."

A new ad by Dem candidate blasts GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave over her preoccupation with social-conservative issues. "She said that her gay-marriage agenda is the most important issue facing the United States of America...Are you kidding me?" View the ad below.

The Hartford Courant ran an interesting story on Friday arguing that the Foley scandal would be politically beneficial not just for Democrats, but specifically for female candidates:

Analysts see political gold for women in the scandal surrounding Foley, a Florida Republican who sent lurid computer messages to young congressional pages. GOP leaders - mostly men - are facing pointed questions over when they knew about the messages and what they did about it.

"Women are seen as the protectors of children, and this is the kind of thing they would not have let go," said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics in New Brunswick, N.J.

The article sites Diane Farrell of Connecticut, Patty Wetterling of Minnesota, Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio, Patricia Madrid of New Mexico and Angie Paccione of Colorado as examples of Democratic women in close races who are addressing the issue aggressively. Chuck Todd of the National Journal pointed out the same thing in his race rankings on Friday: Democratic women are gaining.

When this election cycle first kicked into gear, there was very little reason for GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave to worry that she'd have trouble getting re-elected. After all, her district hasn't elected a Democrat since 1972, and she was re-elected convincingly in 2004 over a heavily-financed opponent. But a strong Democratic tide in Colorado, combined with an unexpectedly strong campaign run by Dem challenger Angie Paccione and the dampened turnout among her social-conservative base that may result from Foleygate, suggests that it's possible this year in the House could be her last.

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GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave -- who recently opined that gay marriage is the most important issue facing the country -- may suddenly be in much a tougher race than anyone expected. CQ Politics has just changed the rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." Says CQ: "[C]ontinued debate over...Musgrave’s staunch social-issues conservatism, and the emergence of Democratic state Rep. Angie Paccione as a solid challenger, have prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating...While the political demographics of the district continue to provide Musgrave with a tangible edge, the ratings change indicates that the race is now considered highly competitive and that an upset by Paccione is a more plausible possibility." Read CQ's full analysis here.

What's the most important issue facing America? Gay marriage, of course. That, at any rate, is the view of GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, the House sponsor of the federal marriage amendment. Speaking to a crowd of social conservatives at the Family Research Council's 2006 Values Voter Summit, Musgrave said: "As we face the issues that we are facing today, I don't think there's anything more important out there than the marriage issue." Musgrave's Dem opponent, Angie Paccione countered: "Holy smokes, we're at war, we've lost nearly 3,000 people and thousands more are maimed. We have over 46 million Americans without health insurance.” More after the jump.

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