Here's a fun little flap out of California: It's already been reported that the Hillary campaign is leaving behind some unpaid bills, but now they may be soon getting a call from a collections agency.

It seems Bill Clinton campaigned for Hillary at the University of California's Davis campus earlier this year -- and since then his campaign has only paid a bit more than half the $11,000 it owes the school for the event.

TPM Reader JL sends in this little article about the flap from The Reporter of Vacaville. The paper reports that the school has now laid down a deadline of May 10th to get its money -- and if it doesn't, university officials are threatning, they're sending the matter to collections.

As TPM's Eric Kleefeld puts it, "forget the polls -- the Clinton campaign is about to get screwed on its credit rating."

We've just confirmed with the California Democratic Party that reports in the blogosphere, which said that Barack Obama picked up additional delegates from the vote count in California, are correct.

Election Central spoke to Bob Mulholland, campaign adviser to the California Dems, and he confirmed that the delegate estimates for the California primary have been revised from the initial media estimates.

To put this in perspective, over one-million votes were yet to be counted when the media estimates were first made. Those estimates had Hillary at 207 delegates to Obama's 163. The new projection: A small alteration to Hillary 203, Obama 167, which Mulholland said is not expected to change when the election is officially certified this Saturday.

MSNBC calls California for Hillary and McCain.

The exit polls show that she won big among white women, and took two thirds of the Latino vote, offsetting Obama's massive margin among blacks.

The big question, though, is just how big Hillary's margin in California will end up being. Right now, barring a bigger-than-expected finish in this state for her, it looks as if Obama could finish the night with an edge in the delegate count.

MSNBC, however, says that early vote totals suggest that Hillary could win the state "substantially."

Meanwhile, McCain's victory in California could signal the end of the Mitt Romney campaign. According to MSNBC, the campaign will be undertaking "frank discussions" in the days ahead about what to do next.

So what do the final polls forecast for today? Well, the predictions for the key states are that Hillary Clinton will win California and Missouri — and that Barack Obama will win California and Missouri:

California

SurveyUSA: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%

Zogby: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%

Missouri

SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 43%

Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 42%

So there you have it: Two pollsters, each with pretty good track records, giving wildly different poll results for today. Obviously they can't both be right, and there's at least a decent chance that they're both wrong. We'll find out the truth of the matter tonight.

Late Update: Another thing to consider is that a large number of ballots have already been cast by mail. SurveyUSA gives those to Hillary by a wide margin, while the widely respected Field Poll registered a one-point edge to ... Obama. In short, there simply isn't any real way to know right now if any of these polls are accurately predicting the outcome.

Thanks for bearing with us during out technical difficulties today. Here's a roundup of the various state polls that came out today, and what sense of direction they give for the Democratic primaries tomorrow. The bottom line: Your guess is really as good as ours about what's going to happen.

Hillary Clinton appears to be on track for roughly 55% in the New York Primary:

Quinnipiac: Clinton 53%, Obama 39%

SurveyUSA: Clinton 56%, Obama 38%

PPP (D): Clinton 52%, Obama 32%

Barack Obama, meanwhile, looks to be on the verge of an even greater majority in his home state:

SurveyUSA: Obama 66%, Clinton 30%

More polls after the jump.

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This morning's Zogby polls show John McCain on track for some big victories tomorrow, with California being the only real trouble spot:

California:
Romney 40% (+3)
McCain 32% (-2)
Huckabee 12%

Missouri:
McCain 35% (-1)
Huckabee 27%(+0)
Romney 24% (+2)

New Jersey:
McCain 52% (-2)
Romney 26% (+3)
Huckabee 7% (+0)

New York:
McCain 53% (+4)
Romney 19% (-4)
Huckabee 8% (+0)

This morning's set of Zogby tracking polls shows Barack Obama with clear momentum in the key primary states, with apparent leads in both California and Missouri, plus a big one in Georgia:

California:
Obama 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-1)

Georgia:
Obama 48% (+0)
Clinton 31% (+3)

Missouri:
Obama 47% (+4)
Clinton 42% (-2)

New Jersey:
Clinton 43% (+0)
Obama 43% (+1)

Zogby credits Obama's movement to a "big Sunday bounce," but we'll find out soon enough whether that keeps up into Monday and, most importantly, the Tuesday election itself.

Barack Obama has picked up the endorsement of yet another prominent member of the Kennedy family: California First Lady Maria Shriver. At a UCLA rally today starring Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama and Caroline Kennedy, Shriver made a surprise appearance and announced that Obama is her candidate, too.

Here's Kos' take on the significance of the endorsement: "Keep in mind, this is now top-of-the-fold news in every California newspaper tomorrow, it will lead every newscast. And it should push into Tuesday as the governor is forced to answer questions about it."

In addition to the new Zogby poll showing a slight lead for Obama in California, two other polls are also out this morning. The new MSNBC/McClatchy poll finds Hillary ahead by nine points:

Hillary 45%

Obama 36%

Undecided 16%

That's a stunning number of undecideds with only two days to go until Feb. 5th. Meanwhile, a new Field poll shows that Obama has closed to within a statistical tie of Hillary, 36%-34%.

Guess how many undecideds? Eighteen percent. Bottom line: We have no idea what's going to happen on Tuesday.

A new Zogby poll in California — a state that may well decide the direction of the Democratic race — shows Barack Obama taking a small lead over Hillary Clinton, within the margin of error. Obama has 45% to Clinton's 41%, with Obama's 20-point lead among men making up for Hillary's 11-point lead with women.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has taken an apparent edge himself of 37% to John McCain's 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee with 12%. Although McCain has the support of the state Republican establishment, led by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Romney leads among those who say immigration and the war on terror are their top issues — probably owing to McCain's support for immigration reform and his opposition to torture.

Some more Zogby state poll numbers are available after the jump.

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Los Angeles-based La Opinión, the largest Spanish-language newspaper in the country, has endorsed Barack Obama for president — a development that could give him increased credibility among Hispanic voters in the crucial California primary. Key quote:

We need a leader today that can inspire and unite America again around its greatest possibilities. Barack Obama is the right leader for the time. We know that he is not as well known among our community and while he has the support of Maria Elena Durazo, Senator Gil Cedillo and others he comes to the Latino community with less name recognition. Nevertheless, it is Obama who deserves our support.

It's still highly unlikely that Obama would win the Latino vote in California. But if he keeps Hillary Clinton's margin fairly low, he could make up the difference among white and African-American voters.

The paper also endorsed John McCain in the Republican primary, citing his principled support for immigration reform against the base of his own party.

The Los Angeles Times throws its support to Barack Obama and John McCain.

It's a coup for both in a state where on the Dem side Obama is closing on Hillary and on the GOP side McCain is ahead and racking up major endorsements, such as that of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

On Obama:

An Obama presidency would present, as a distinctly American face, a man of African descent, born in the nation's youngest state, with a childhood spent partly in Asia, among Muslims. No public relations campaign could do more than Obama's mere presence in the White House to defuse anti-American passion around the world, nor could any political experience surpass Obama's life story in preparing a president to understand the American character. His candidacy offers Democrats the best hope of leading America into the future, and gives Californians the opportunity to cast their most exciting and consequential ballot in a generation.

In the language of metaphor, Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration.

The McCain endorsement here.

Another Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama making up serious ground in a major Super Tuesday state. In California, Hillary Clinton has a bare lead of 43%, followed Obama at 40% and John Edwards with 9%.

If Obama were to pull off a win in the largest state in the country, it would completely change the dynamics of the campaign. And if Hillary were to come out on top, it could give her a large number of delegates to fend off Obama's advantages elsewhere.

It's looking like John McCain will get another huge endorsement in a major Super Tuesday state. Newsweek reports that Arnold Schwarzenegger will likely endorse McCain soon after tonight's debate at the Reagan Library.

CNN also has the news, reporting that the endorsement will officially come within the next 48 hours.

Late Update: It's confirmed. Arnold will endorse McCain tomorrow.

Hillary goes up on the air in a Feb. 5 state for the first time, with this California spot about the economy:

Two new SurveyUSA polls show that Rudy Giuliani's campaign strategy, built around February 5 and larger states, is on the edge of collapse.

In Florida, Rudy has a bare 29% plurality, with Mike Huckabee at 24% and Mitt Romney at 20%. In the last SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, Rudy had 32%, with Huckabee at 18% and Romney with 15%.

In California, it's Rudy 28%, Huckabee 20%, Romney 16%, John McCain 14% and Fred Thompson 13%. In the December 3 poll, Rudy was at 32%, and his closest competitor, John McCain, had 18%.

If Rudy loses early contests, he could find his poll numbers diminish where he was doing well, as the early winners enjoy momentum from their wins.

On the Democratic side in California, Hillary Clinton has 49%, Barack Obama 30%, and John Edwards 14%.

Democrats can breathe a sigh of relief over California's electoral votes. The Republican-backed initiative to split the state's votes by Congressional district will not be on the June ballot, its backers have admitted, effectively sinking GOP hopes of grabbing the presidency in California.

If the initiative had passed in the low-turnout June primary, Republicans would have been able to get an estimated 20 electoral votes — as good as winning Ohio. Now its only hope is to be on the November ballot, in which heavier turnout would make it much more likely to be defeated.

The Republican front group working to put an initiative on the California ballot to split the state's electoral votes has previously boasted that they would easily get the signatures they needed — but now it doesn't look quite as likely. The Los Angeles Times reported over the weekend that the group is already pushing its deadline for turning in signatures, and the campaign manager was not certain that they would meet their goal of 700,000 — enough to provide a buffer against disqualified signatures.

If this measure were to get on the ballot and pass, it would allocate California's electoral votes by Congressional districts rather than a winner-take-all popular vote, as is employed by almost every other state. That would give the Republicans an estimated 20 or so electoral votes, enough to hand them the presidency in a close race that otherwise would have gone to the Democrats.

California Counts, the Republican-led group gathering signatures for an initiative to split California's electoral votes by Congressional district, now say they are confident they'll get enough to be on the ballot.

If this initiative were to pass, it would be an enormous gift to the GOP in 2008. It could award the Republicans roughly 20 electoral votes — which would be as good as winning Ohio, and potentially swing the presidency to the Republicans in a close race.

Read more »

A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday shows plurality support for splitting the state's electoral votes, with 47% in favor to 34% against. Some of the state's Republicans, such as Congressman Darrell Issa, are currently working to bring just such a measure up as a voter initiative, which if passed would deliver about 20 electors to the GOP.

It should be noted, however, that initiatives in California typically need to start with over 50% support, and a vigorous opposition campaign can usually drive anything weaker to an easy defeat. Additionally, the poll asked about dividing the electors based on the percentage of the popular vote, not by Congressional district, as the proposed initiative would actually do — but on the other hand, perhaps many of the voters could end up thinking it's about the popular vote.

In the California primary, Hillary Clinton leads the Democrats with 53%, with Barack Obama at 25% and John Edwards with 13%. For the Republicans, Rudy Giuliani has a 34% plurality, with a three-way statistical tie for second: John McCain 16%, Mitt Romney 15%, and Fred Thompson 13%. Mike Huckabee is in fifth place with 8%.

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) — whose personal fortune helped launch the 2003 recall of Governor Gray Davis — is now bankrolling the initiative to split California's electoral votes in a manner that would net the Republicans roughly 20 new electors.

"I have made a small contribution," Issa told The Hill. Issa has an interesting definition of "small" — though he did not disclose the full amount, he said it was in the tens of thousands of dollars.

"This is about making people’s votes count," he said. "It’s about proportional representation."

A new Field Poll in California shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead the Republican pack — but his percentage of the vote has gone down considerably since the last poll.

Rudy leads with 25% support, with the opposition in a three-way tie: Romney 13%, McCain 12%, Thompson 12%. Clearly, Rudy is continuing to benefit from a divided opposition.

In the last Field Poll back in August, Rudy had 35%. Rudy has fallen ten points, while some of the smaller candidates like Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee have gained a few points each.

A new SurveyUSA poll of California shows Hillary Clinton approaching super-majority status in that state's Democratic primary, with 57% support against Barack Obama at 20%, and John Edwards with 13%.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani still leads with a solid plurality of 39%, with the opposition divided: Fred Thompson gets 18%, Mitt Romney 14%, and John McCain 13%.