CNN downgrades McCain's home state from "safe McCain" to "leans McCain."

The network also moves North Dakota from "leans McCain" into the "toss-up" category. The Obama camp announced today that he's going on the air in both states, plus Georgia.

Fun and telling footnote: After reporting that, CNN adds:

But there's some good news for McCain down south: Louisiana has moved from "lean McCain" to "safe McCain."

Take the good news where you can get it...

Another poll shows that John McCain could be in serious danger of losing his home state of Arizona -- and remember, the Obama campaign just announced that they'll be advertising there for the first time in the general election.

The new numbers from Research 2000: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that Obama is winning the early vote by a 54%-42% margin, and this group is expected to make up 17% of the total likely voters.

Another important number, showing McCain's latent vulnerability: In a test run for his 2010 re-election against Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, McCain is trailing 53%-45%.

Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.

Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.

McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."

NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.

RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:

"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"

John McCain and the Republican National Committee are now running robocalls attacking Obama as weak on terrorism -- in McCain's home state of Arizona, according to multiple readers from the state.

The call signals genuine worry about McCain's home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there.

McCain's robocall, which was played to us over the phone by Mary Joe Bartel, a retiree who lives south of Tucson, attacks Obama as unprepared to defend the country from terrorism, singling out Joe Biden's recent remarks about the likelihood of Obama being tested by an international crisis early in his first term.

Here's the script:

I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because Barack Obama is so dangerously inexperienced, his running mate Joe Biden just said, he invites a major international crisis that he will be unprepared to handle alone.

If Democrats win full control of government, they will want to give civil rights to terrorists and talk unconditionally to dictators and state sponsors of terror. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the experience and judgment to lead America. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and authorized by McCain-Palin 2008.

Two other Arizona readers -- David Lorti, a Phoenix realtor, and Jerry Mooers, a retiree from Sun Lakes -- confirm to us that they received the same call today.

A poll last night found Obama within two points of the Arizona Senator. The call means Republicans are sinking resources into a state that obviously should have been a complete lock for McCain, with time fast running out.

Simply extraordinary. Audio when we get it.

Late Update: Here's the audio.

Click to play

Is it possible that John McCain could lose his home state of Arizona, which has only voted Democratic once in the last 50 years? A new poll from Arizona State University puts McCain ahead, but also suggests that an Obama win is not at all out of the question.

The numbers: McCain 46%, Obama 44%, within the ±3% margin of error. The previous ASU poll from a month ago put McCain up 45%-38%.

Other recent polling has shown a close race, too. Rasmussen has McCain up 51%-46%, down from a 59%-38% lead a month ago.

McCain should still be seen as the favorite to win Arizona, but it's certainly not a good sign for him that any poll even has it close right now.

Obama's Big Berlin Speech Today
Today is the big day of Barack Obama's tour through Europe, with him set to address a crowd in Berlin that is expected to be simply massive. Speaking to reporters on the campaign plane, Obama tried to play down the big expectations that have been set: "I doubt we're going to have a million screaming Germans -- let's tamp down expectations here."

McCain To Discuss Cancer With Lance Armstrong
John McCain is stopping tonight in Columbus, Ohio, where he'll be holding a town hall meeting on cancer issues with Lance Armstrong. The famous athlete has remained publicly neutral in the campaign all this cycle, with the goal of lobbying all the candidates on health care issues relating to cancer research and treatment.

Schumer: Sixty Seats "Not Out Of The Question"
During a pen and pad briefing with reporters yesterday in his capacity as head of the DSCC, Senator Chuck Schumer didn't rule out the possibility of the Dems reaching a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority this fall. "It's very difficult, but it's not out of the question," Schumer said.

WaPo: Obama's Israel Trip Focused On Jewish Vote
The Washington Post reports that the Israel leg of Barack Obama's trip was the most meticulously planned part of the overseas tour -- with the big issue being an effort to woo Jewish voters back home. "In the end, I think he's going to do as well as any Democratic nominee with the Jewish community, but people still have to feel more comfortable with him," said Congressman Henry Waxman.

NYT: McCain Putting In Extra Effort For Home State
The New York Times reports that John McCain has stepped up his number of campaign appearances in his home state of Arizona, a sign that the campaign isn't taking the place for granted as Democrats have gained strength locally. One problem is the enthusiasm gap between the two candidates, and that many local conservative activists have long dislike McCain for his stances on campaign finance and immigration.

Report: Lieberman Not Bringing In Cash For McCain
The Hill reports that in the time since John McCain won the Republican nomination, only two donations have come into the McCain campaign from Joe Lieberman supporters. In his defense, Lieberman noted that he's attended several fundraising events for McCain: "I hope my presence there has helped."

McCain Meets With Billy And Franklin Graham
John McCain met today with Billy Graham and his son Franklin, himself an influential Christian, in an opportunity to reach out to Christian conservatives who have tended to mistrust him over the years. Fun fact: In 2003, Franklin Graham looked forward to the Iraq War as an opportunity to spread Christianity in the Middle East.

Obama And McCain Camps Fight Over Immigration
The weekend has turned into a mini-slugfest between the two presidential campaigns over immigration. Obama used his speech yesterday at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference in Washington to attack McCain for backing away from his immigration reform proposals. This was then followed by the McCain camp blasting out e-mails blaming Obama for undermining the 2007 reform -- and the Obama camp then blasting out a 2006 letter from McCain, thanking Obama for his help on the issue.

Poll: McCain Ahead But Under 50% In Home State
A new Rasmussen poll of Arizona gives John McCain the lead in his home state -- but he is unable to get over 50%, a sign that he may end up having to take time to campaign here when he could be in other states. The numbers: McCain 49%, Obama 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Holbrooke To Raise Money For Obama in London
Former Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke -- a top foreign-policy man in Bill Clinton's administration who supported HIllary during the primaries -- will be holding a fundraiser in London on July 8, for Americans abroad supporting Barack Obama. The ticket price: $2,500.

WaPo: Nation's Socio-Economic Political Geography Shifting
An article in today's Washington Post examines the shifts in political demographics. "In 1976, Republican Gerald R. Ford won 10 of the 12 states with the highest per-capita income but lost the election; in 2004, John F. Kerry did the same for the Democrats," the paper observes. The two high-income states won by the GOP in 2004 were Colorado and Virginia -- which are today at the top of Barack Obama's target list.

NYT: Internet Freelancers Changing Political Dialogue
The New York Times this morning profiles the effect that the Internet has had on political discourse: "This year, the development of cheap new editing programs and fast video distribution through sites like YouTube has broken down the barriers, empowering a new generation of largely unregulated political warriors who can affect the campaign dialogue faster and with more impact than the traditional opposition research shops."

John McCain might just have to work a little hard to secure the electoral votes of his home state of Arizona, a new poll from Southwestern firm Behavior Research Center (no link) finds.

McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 39%
McCain (R) 51%, Clinton (D) 36%.

Sample size: 630 likely voters, weighted for age, sex, race and party identification.
Margin of error: ±4%.

While this is a double-digit lead, it is still uncomfortably close for a home-state candidate -- indeed, an incumbent Senator seeking re-election with those numbers would be considered a possible target.

Even if McCain is still favored to win Arizona, any effort he has to put in to lock it down is time and energy that could have spent elsewhere, and it also means down-ticket Dems will need less ticket-splitters to win their races.

With the Democratic race fast shifting to a national contest, the campaigns are ramping up their buying in the Feb. 5th states. The Edwards camp, for instance, announced on a conference call an "aggressive" new ad buy in 10 states over the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is rolling out a series of state ads, including one in Missouri starring Obama backer Claire McCaskill...

...and another in Arizona starring Janet Napolitano:

Barack Obama has picked up the endorsement of a major female politician, and one that could be useful in the Nevada caucuses at that. The Arizona Republic reports that Gov. Janet Napolitano — herself a former U.S. Attorney during Bill Clinton's administration — will endorse Obama at a campaign event tonight in Las Vegas.

The endorsement could be of some benefit out in Western states, where Napolitano is a popular governor and can advance the argument that he is the more electable candidate. The endorsement could also help Obama build some support with women voters in Arizona's February 5 primary.

Mitt Romney is clearly making a push in John McCain's own back yard. In Arizona, his most prominent endorser in the state will personally file Romney's ballot paperwork for him. Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, known for housing prisoners in tents and taking a hard line against illegal immigration, will submit the papers today.

Arpaio's popularity has come in large part from his law-and-order appeal, and it was definitely a coup for Romney to win his support early in the cycle. And with illegal immigration becoming a prominent wedge issue for Republicans, Romney and the rest of the Republican field might just be able to drag McCain down in his own home state.

Some new polling of Arizona and Nevada from American Research Group shows John McCain with only a weak plurality in his home state, and also that Bill Richardson has failed to really catch fire in either of these heavily Hispanic states:

Arizona

Democrats:
Clinton 41%
Edwards 16%
Obama 14%
Richardson 7%

Republicans:
McCain 26%
Giuliani 19%
Romney 18%
Thompson 15%

Nevada

Democrats:
Clinton 51%
Edwards 14%
Obama 11%
Richardson 5%

Republicans:
Giuliani 31%
Romney 30%
McCain 11%
Thompson 9%

Governor Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) will reportedly invoke her executive authority move the state's presidential primarY to February 5, up from its current date of February 26. This puts Arizona in line with an estimated 19 other states to thus far go to the de facto national primary date sanctioned by the national party committees — though other states, like Michigan and Florida, have already gone ahead of even that.

If John McCain is still in the race by then, he'll probably win his home state's GOP primary by a decent margin.