So here's the latest on the Senate map: We already know the Dems have picked up a minimum of five seats, but there are still four races that could go either way, with one of them leaning in the Democratic direction.
Here are the four outstanding races:
• In Alaska, GOP incumbent Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens may have confounded the polls that showed him losing by a landslide -- he's now narrowly ahead 99% of the vote counted, and he is now saying it's almost impossible for his Dem opponent to win.
Forget about the Bradley Effect -- we're dealing here with the Stevens Effect: An unwillingness of poll respondents to admit to a pollster that they're going to vote for the convicted felon. This one seems to be tilting towards the GOP.
• In Georgia, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss appears headed to a December runoff against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss came out ahead of Martin, but seems to be so tantalizingly short of his true goalpost of 50% plus one: With 96% reporting, Chambliss has 49.9%, Martin 46.7%, and the Libertarian candidate has 3.4%.
Either Chambliss has reached the threshold to avoid a runoff, in which case he's re-elected outright, or he goes into a runoff where he would have to be rated as the initial favorite.
• In the Minnesota Senate race, where GOP incumbent Norm Coleman has a lead of just a few hundred votes against Al Franken, this one is going to a recount. That process itself could take several weeks, so we may not get a true verdict on this race until some time in December.
This one is a real tossup, and there is a precedent for Senate recounts changing the initial outcome in a close race -- that exact thing happened in a key Senate race in 2000, in Washington State.
• In the current vote count in Oregon, where all balloting is done by mail, incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith has a very narrow lead over Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. However, Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes points out that many of the outstanding votes are from the Portland and Eugene areas, which are expected to heavily favor Merkley.
It might take another few days to get this thing counted, but the conventional wisdom in the Oregon press seems to be that Merkley will eventually pull ahead. Of the four races listed here, this one presents the most optimistic outlook for the Democrats.
In the highly unlikely scenario that the Democrats were to sweep all four of these races, they would then reach that magic number of 60 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman. But don't expect that to happen.
Late Update: Oregon's top newspaper has projected Merkley the winner over Smith. So that's one more Democratic pick-up.