Democrats could be in for a major Senate win in the GOP stronghold of Alaska, a new poll finds.

The survey by local firm Hellenthal and Associates finds Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading longtime incumbent Republican Ted Stevens by a margin of 51%-44%, thanks in large measure to the ethics investigations that have dogged the incumbent.

Democrats haven't won a federal election in Alaska since 1974, so a win here would definitely be a really big deal.

Meanwhile, the poll also shows Rep. Don Young (R) narrowly trailing his primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, by 37%-34%. The data shows that Young would likely lose the general election by a 58%-38% landslide against likely Dem nominee Ethan Berkowitz, while Parnell edges out Berkowitz 43%-38% in a trial heat.

Now this is really something. New polling shows that not one but two scandal-plagued incumbent Republicans are seriously in danger of losing their seats -- and to top it off, both are in a state that has historically been a GOP stronghold, Alaska.

The two GOPers in question are TPMmuckraker all-stars: Sen. Ted Stevens, who is at the center of a corruption investigation; and Rep. Don Young, whose potential involvement in the Coconut Road earmark has landed him in the hotseat. Both are trailing their Dem challengers.

From the new polls commissioned by Daily Kos, and conducted by the non-partisan firm Research 2000:

Senate
Begich (D) 48%
Stevens (R) 43%

House
Berkowitz (D) 50%
Young (R) 40%

Sample size: 600 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

Democrats have not won a federal race in Alaska since 1974, when Mike Gravel was elected to a second term in the Senate. But it's looking like this could be a big year indeed.

Rep. Don Young (R-AK), a TPMmuckraker all-star, may be in serious danger of defeat in the general election, even though Alaska hasn't voted to send a Democrat to either house of Congress since 1974.

The internal poll commssioned by Jake Metcalfe, one of the two Democratic candidates, finds Young trailing Metcalfe 45%-37%, and trailing a generic Democrat 41%-34%. Young also faces a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The poll was conducted from March 10-12 by Hays Research, a non-partisan Alaska pollster.

A new round of Research 2000 polling, commissioned by Daily Kos, finds two longtime — and scandal-plagued – incumbents trailing in Alaska. Congressman Don Young (R) trails former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz (D) by a 49%-42% margin, while Senator Ted Stevens (R) is behind Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) 47%-41%.

Berkowitz currently faces a Democratic primary against two opponents, while Begich has yet to announce whether he will run for Senate. If one or even both were to win in November 2008, it would be a huge milestone — the last time a Democrat won a federal election in heavily-GOP Alaska was in 1974.

A new poll from Alaska firm Hays Research shows Senator Ted Stevens (R) and Congressman Don Young (R), who have both been caught up in ethics scandals, suffering from pretty bad ratings.

Only 44% of respondents gave Ted Stevens a positive ratings, compared to 38% who feel negatively about him. But as it turns out, Stevens' numbers are the good ones. Young has a positive rating of 34%, with 48% negative.

Democrats have yet to find an opponent for Stevens, but have been courting Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz and former state Democratic chair Jake Metcalfe are both seeking the Dem nomination to run against Young.

The environmentalist group Defends of Wildlife has a new ad running against Congressman Don Young (R-AK). Interestingly, the ad focuses more on Young's many ethics scandals, with only a short mention of global warming:

Big news out of Alaska: A new poll from Ivan Moore Research shows Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading 18-term incumbent Don Young (R-AK) by a 51%-45.5% margin.

The poll also finds that a near-majority of Alaska voters have grown sour on the scandal-tainted Young, with almost 50% of likely voters having a negative feeling toward the incumbent, and 43% still feeling positive.

Berkowitz, the 2006 nominee for Lt. Governor in the state, is one of three Democrats in the race to take on Young, but the poll only tests his strength against Young. Another surprising finding from the poll: only roughly 15% of respondents did not recognize his name.

Another Democrat is running for the nomination to face scandal-plagued Congressman Don Young (R-AK). Ethan Berkowitz, a former minority leader of the Alaska House, has announced that he will run for the seat.

Berkowitz, who ran for Lt. Governor last year on the ticket with former Governor Tony Knowles, served five terms in the Alaska House and is considered to be one of the state party's big names. Over this past Summer, he had also been rumored as a potential opponent for GOP Sen. Ted Stevens.

Berkowitz joins former Alaska Democratic Party Chairman Jake Metcalfe and 2006 Young opponent Diane Benson in the Democratic Primary.

On the GOP side, it looks as if Young won't have a free ride to the party's nomination, either. State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a former Democrat, said yesterday that she will mount a primary challenge against the 18-term incumbent.

Looks like Alaska Dems are lining up to take on GOP Rep. Don Young, a TPMmuckraker all-star who's held his seat for more than three decades.

Anchorage TV station KTUU reports that Alaska State Dem chairman Jake Metcalfe is filing paperwork this morning announcing his bid for Young's seat. He's the second Dem to announce a run.

Metcalfe's focus: An ongoing Federal investigation of Young's ties to VECO Corporation, an Alaska-based oil field services company that's part of a public corruption probe.

TPMmuckraker's coverage of Young is right here.

National Democratic strategists are eyeing Alaska as a state ripe for a major pickup in 2008 — and a new poll of the state's voters suggests that Dems have some reason to be optimistic about making a big gain there.

National Dems have been working overtime to recruit Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to run for Congress in 2008 — either against powerhouse Senator Ted Stevens or against Representative Don Young. While snatching Stevens' Senate seat obviously would be a bigger coup, knocking off Young would be a more than decent prize, too.

Now a new poll suggests that both GOP targets may be a good deal more vulnerable than initially thought.

Details after the jump.

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