New GOP Ad: Al Franken "Writes Pornography," "Laughs At The Disabled"
The NRSC, facing more poll data showing Al Franken taking the lead in Minnesota, is pulling out all the stops with their new ad against Franken's dirty humor:

Both the NRSC and the Coleman campaign have been attacking Franken's toilet-humor for months now, but Franken has nevertheless managed to take the lead in most of the recent polls. This increase in the intensity of the attack does come off as desperate, if it's meant to be a real closing argument against Franken and the Democrats.

Coleman Ad: I Work Really Hard For You!
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who is trying to keep it positive in his own new ads, has this new one-minute ad in which the incumbent seems to be begging Minnesotans to realize how hard he works for them:

"In times as thought as this, it's really easy to kind of be on the sidelines and cast stones, and say, you know 'This is the problem and that's the problem," Coleman says. "I think people know we've got problems, but I think what they're looking for is solutions."

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Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

National House Committees Shell Out Big Money, NRCC Finally In The Game
Both parties' national House committees shelled out big bucks in the newest federal filings. The DCCC spent nearly $4 million in yesterday's FEC filings, with the biggest expenditure going for $450,000 against Rep. Robin "Liberals Hate Real Americans" Hayes (R-NC). The NRCC, which has held on to its much smaller war chest until the home stretch of the campaign, spent $4.1 million, with the biggest payment going for over $450,000 to defend Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA).

DCCC Going On The Air Against Bachmann
The DCCC will be going on the air against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), with this ad attacking her for blaming the financial crisis on too much regulation of Wall St. -- and pointing out how much money she's received from Wall St. interests:

The DCCC has committed to spending $1 million on this race, sensing an opening in the wake of Bachmann's statements on Hardball that the media should investigate Barack Obama and other members of Congress for possible anti-American views, followed by her truly awkward attempts at denying she said it.

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Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Coleman Ad: I'm For Hope
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has this new ad in which he talks about how he's taken his negative ads down, and he believes in hope:

It should be noted that the NRSC is still continuing to run attack ads against Al Franken, thus allowing the negativity to continue while keeping Coleman's hands nominally clean. And he seems to acknowledge this, too: "I can't control every ad out there, but I'm proud to approve this one."

Dem Ad: Don Young Is Doling Out Pork For Other People
Check out this new DCCC ad against Don Young, which goes into the federal investigations against him and the suspicious circumstances surrounding earmarks like the Coconut Road in Florida. But the real message here is that Don Young is using his pork-granting superpowers to benefit other states:

"So what's Alaska getting?" the announcer says. "According to one non-partisan watchdog, one of America's most corrupt members of Congress."

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Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Franken Ad: GOP Ads Lie About Me Being Angry
Al Franken, who has taken the lead in the latest polls of the Minnesota Senate race, has this new one-minute TV ad, showing in detail how a Republican attack ad has twisted around footage of him doing a humorous impersonation of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone in order to make Franken look manic and angry:

"Look familiar?" the announcer says. "That's right. Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better."

Polls: Dems Ahead In Alaska's Congressional Races
A new poll from Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Rep. Don Young (R), both tainted by scandal, trailing their Democratic opponents. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Stevens 49%-45%, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz has a wider lead of 51%-42% over Don Young.

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Here's today's run-down of the Congressional Races:

Dems Shell Out $7 Million In One Day On House Races
The DCCC latest FEC filings from last night show that the Dems put down over $7 million for ads in 39 races across the country, in a mix of offense and defense. The single most notable expenditure: The Dems are spending $777,000 to go after scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young (R-AK), an astonishing amount for a small and very red state.

Poll: Franken Ahead In Minnesota
A new University of Minnesota poll is giving Al Franken a narrow lead in his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN). The numbers: Franken 41%, Coleman 37%, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley at 14%, within the ±5% margin of error.

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Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races: The Democrats are barreling ahead with more attacks against the GOP for the financial crisis, and more polling data is showing the economy dragging the Republicans down in key races.

House Dems Drop Almost $4.6 Million In One Day
The DCCC spent an enormous amount in yesterday's FEC filings, shelling out almost $4.6 million in 37 races. The Dems are spending $450,000 on offense for three seats in Ohio, $300,000 for two GOP seats in New Mexico, and half a million each in Arizona and Pennsylvania on both offense and defense -- a serious leveraging of their huge financial advantage over the House GOP.

Franken Ad Blasts Coleman For The Wall St. Crisis
Al Franken has this new ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), tying Coleman to the financial crisis and the unpopular economic policies of George W. Bush:

"Who was looking out for us? Not Norm Coleman," the announcer says. "He's taken $2 million from Wall St. and financial interests -- more than any other Senate candidate in the country."

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Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races: More polls show that the Democrats have a very good chance of picking up some tough seats, thanks to the economic crisis and anti-incumbent fervor -- but they might also lose a few of their own.

Poll: Dems' New Hampshire House Seats in Danger
A new Univ. of New Hampshire poll shows that former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) is leading incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) by a 45%-42% margin, in his comeback attempt after she defeated him two years ago. In the state's other district, freshman Rep. Paul Hodes (D) is leading his challenger Jennifer Horn (R) by a 38%-33% margin, with a very high undecided number that should be of serious concern to the incumbent.

Poll: Alaska Senate Race Close, House Race Getting Closer
A new Ivan Moore poll of Alaska shows challenger Mark Begich (D) leading incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (R) by a 48%-46% margin, compared to 49%-46% three weeks ago. The same poll shows Ethan Berkowitz (D) losing his once 17-point lead over incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) from just three weeks ago to now just a 49%-44% lead.

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Here's that awkward moment from today when Sarah Palin refused to answer a reporter's question about whether she supports the re-election of Alaska's indicted Sen. Ted Stevens or the scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young:

"Ted Stevens' trial started a couple days ago. We'll see where that goes," Palin said. When she was asked again whether she would vote for Stevens and Young, Palin simply turned away and took another reporter's question.

Palin is in a real bind here. She can't say she doesn't support the re-election of her state's GOP members of Congress -- she's the Republican nominee for vice president. On the other hand, saying she does support these mucky pork-dealers would really damage the brand that the McCain campaign has manufactured for her as a supposed anti-pork ethics crusader.

Here's this morning's run-down on the Congressional races: The Dems' chances of taking a key Senate seat have just gone up considerably, and the party overall is spending heavily in key races.

Polls Show GOP Sen. Dole Losing Re-Election
Two new polls show that Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) is trailing her Democratic opponent Kay Hagan, a rare opportunity for a Democratic pick-up in a Southern Senate seat. The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Hagan 46%, Dole 41%, with a ±3% margin of error. And from Rasmussen: Hagan 51%, Dole 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

Coleman: Bailout Isn't Really A Bailout
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is praising the proposed Wall St. bailout, in which the government would buy $700 billion in mortgage debts with little or no oversight or penalties for the firms that made that loans in the first place. Coleman alleges that the buyout is "not an infusion of cash" to the firms, but is in fact an investment by the government: "The government could make 10 or 20 times what it pays on this, possibly." Needless to say, this is economic nonsense.

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Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races: The momentum so far today seems to be with the Dems, with some decent poll numbers and strong ad campaigns.

Stevens Tries To Get Ads Against Him Pulled
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) has called upon local TV and radio stations to stop running DSCC ads that attack him for getting an unreasonably good deal on a car thanks to a wealthy donor, and for steering private consultant jobs to his son Ben. Only a few stations honored his complaints that the ads are deceptive, but even they are once more continuing to run them.

Poll: Dems Winning Both Congressional Races In Deep-Red Alaska
A new Research 2000 poll has the Dems winning both the Senate and House races in Alaska, despite the presence of Gov. Sarah Palin on the national ticket. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is beating Sen. Ted Stevens by a 50%-44% margin, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz is beating scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Young by a 53%-39% margin, with a ±4% margin of error.

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Here's tonight's rundown on the Congressional races: It wasn't a good day for the GOP, with a mixture of legal defeat, the wrong candidate winning the nomination for a key seat, and tough counter-attacks from the Dems.

Democrats Win Court Battle In Mississippi Senate Race
In a surprise victory for the Dems, the Mississippi Supreme Court has ruled against the efforts by GOP Gov. Haley Barbour to bury the hotly-contested special election for Senate at the bottom of the physical ballot used on Election Day, where lower-information voters might have overlooked it. Oddly enough, though, the court declined to issue a formal order that Barbour must change the ballot, but only threatened to issue one if he did not comply from here on out.

Late Update: Barbour's office says he will comply with the ruling.

NY Conservatives: No, We're Not Nominating Fossella
A leader of the New York Conservative Party is ruling out the possibility of subbing in scandal-plagued retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) as their new nominee for Congress. "No, absolutely not," said Brooklyn party chairman Jerry Kassar, in an interview with Election Central. "He is not under consideration, nor has he requested consideration."

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It's looking like scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young won his very close primary in Alaska, though a recount is still likely -- and if his lead does hold up, then the Dems' chances of winning the House seat in this deep-red state just skyrocketed.

Young faced a strong primary challenge from Lt. Governor Sean Parnell, who had the support of Sarah Palin. The primary was two weeks ago, but a winner still hasn't been declared as Young took a lead of less then 250 votes with absentee ballots still left to be counted. But now, the Anchorage Daily News reports that there are less outstanding ballots than Young's current lead of 239 votes -- meaning that even if all of them went to Parnell, Young would still survive.

The polls consistently showed that Parnell would have been a much stronger candidate than Young against Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz. And with Young losing to Berkowitz by double-digit margins in most surveys, his apparent primary win is very good news for the Dems.

Here's what a Republican source told us the morning after the primary: "Don Young is going to lose some time in 2008. The question is whether it's now or November."

New McCain Ad: Obama "Dangerously Unprepared" To Deal With Iran
The McCain campaign has a new ad out, which the campaign says will run in "key states," attacking Obama as "dangerously unprepared to be president" and confront the threat of Iran. The ad -- and it's a good question whether this will seriously run anywhere -- seems tailor-made to counter today's Dem convention theme of national security:

Tonight: Bill Clinton And Joe Biden To Address Convention
Tonight's theme for the Democratic Convention is national security, but two speakers in particular will get the most attention: Bill Clinton, who will have the tough job of following Hillary's speech for unity from last night, and Joe Biden, whose role will be to tear into John McCain as Barack Obama's running mate.

Obama In Montana Today
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Billings, Montana, a state that has been improbably brought into contention this election season.

McCain Off The Trail Today
John McCain does not have any announced public events for today.

NYT: Obama Camp Falling Short Of Fundraising Goals
The New York Times reports that the Obama campaign's fundraising totals, while impressive, are not enough to truly make it worth the time and effort he has to spend on fundraising in order to make up for the public money he has foregone. A source of the problem: Anemic fundraising from former Hillary Clinton donors, who only give about $4 million in June and July.

Don Young Just Barely Ahead In Alaska Primary
After a close vote count all night long, scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Young of Alaska seems to be just barely fending off primary challenger Sean Parnell -- which would drastically raise the Dems' chances of winning this seat in a deep-red state. With 97.9% of precincts reporting, Young is ahead by 145 votes out of nearly 85,000 between the two of them, and only nine precincts have yet to report.

Poll: McCain Ahead In Florida
A new poll of Florida from Strategic Vision (R) gives John McCain a 49%-42% lead in this big swing state. Recent polls have all given McCain the edge here, though his lead in this poll is a bit bigger than in the others.

Poll: Freshman Dem Faces Tight Race In Deep-Red District
A new SurveyUSA poll shows freshman Dem Congressman Chris Carney, who won his rural Pennsylvania district in 2006 thanks to the incumbent's scandals, is in a very tight race against his Republican opponent. Carney has 49% against GOP nominee Chris Hackett's 45%, within the ±4% margin of error.

Along with all the convention hoopla going on tonight, there's also a big primary race you should keep an eye out for: The Republican House primary in Alaska, where the result could have a huge effect on whether the Dems are able to pick up a seat in a deep-red state.

Congressman Don Young, who has represented this state for 35 years, has become involved in scandal after scandal over the last few years, giving many the feeling that his time may be up. And he's facing a tough primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who has received massive financial help from the Club For Growth.

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Hmm, it looks like the DCCC is playing a bit dirty in the Alaska House race -- they're getting involved in the very contentious Republican primary, sending out mailers that are apparently designed to damage the chances of the candidate who seems like he'd be a stronger nominee.

According to the DCCC's FEC filings, these mailings officially go after both incumbent Representative Don Young and his primary challenger, Lt. Governor Sean Parnell. But the mailers do seem to go after Parnell a whole lot more than they do Young. Check out this example, which the Parnell campaign provided to us at our request. Click on the images to enlarge:

If the scandal-plagued Young wins this primary, the Democrats will essentially have a 99% chance of winning this seat in a deep-red state -- but a Parnell win would make the Republicans actually somewhat favored to hold on. So you can see why the Dems might want to throw some monkey wrenches into things in the final days of the primary.

Three more recent mailers, after the jump.

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What do you do if you're a GOP candidate locked in a brutal race for re-election and you need to hoodwink voters into embracing your tax policies?

Easy: Create a fictitious "hero of the taxpayer" award supposedly bestowed on you by a respected non-partisan watchdog group.

TPMmuckraker's Kate Klonick has a great find: Our pal GOP Rep. Don Young, who's fighting for his life in Alaska, is running a new ad saying that he received such an award from a group called Taxpayers for Common Sense.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it just so happens that this is, well, entirely false, as the group tells Klonick. But the real beauty of the tale lies in its kicker.

Take a look.

Democrats could be in for a major Senate win in the GOP stronghold of Alaska, a new poll finds.

The survey by local firm Hellenthal and Associates finds Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading longtime incumbent Republican Ted Stevens by a margin of 51%-44%, thanks in large measure to the ethics investigations that have dogged the incumbent.

Democrats haven't won a federal election in Alaska since 1974, so a win here would definitely be a really big deal.

Meanwhile, the poll also shows Rep. Don Young (R) narrowly trailing his primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, by 37%-34%. The data shows that Young would likely lose the general election by a 58%-38% landslide against likely Dem nominee Ethan Berkowitz, while Parnell edges out Berkowitz 43%-38% in a trial heat.

Now this is really something. New polling shows that not one but two scandal-plagued incumbent Republicans are seriously in danger of losing their seats -- and to top it off, both are in a state that has historically been a GOP stronghold, Alaska.

The two GOPers in question are TPMmuckraker all-stars: Sen. Ted Stevens, who is at the center of a corruption investigation; and Rep. Don Young, whose potential involvement in the Coconut Road earmark has landed him in the hotseat. Both are trailing their Dem challengers.

From the new polls commissioned by Daily Kos, and conducted by the non-partisan firm Research 2000:

Senate
Begich (D) 48%
Stevens (R) 43%

House
Berkowitz (D) 50%
Young (R) 40%

Sample size: 600 likely voters.
Margin of error: ±4%.

Democrats have not won a federal race in Alaska since 1974, when Mike Gravel was elected to a second term in the Senate. But it's looking like this could be a big year indeed.

Rep. Don Young (R-AK), a TPMmuckraker all-star, may be in serious danger of defeat in the general election, even though Alaska hasn't voted to send a Democrat to either house of Congress since 1974.

The internal poll commssioned by Jake Metcalfe, one of the two Democratic candidates, finds Young trailing Metcalfe 45%-37%, and trailing a generic Democrat 41%-34%. Young also faces a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The poll was conducted from March 10-12 by Hays Research, a non-partisan Alaska pollster.

A new round of Research 2000 polling, commissioned by Daily Kos, finds two longtime — and scandal-plagued – incumbents trailing in Alaska. Congressman Don Young (R) trails former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz (D) by a 49%-42% margin, while Senator Ted Stevens (R) is behind Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) 47%-41%.

Berkowitz currently faces a Democratic primary against two opponents, while Begich has yet to announce whether he will run for Senate. If one or even both were to win in November 2008, it would be a huge milestone — the last time a Democrat won a federal election in heavily-GOP Alaska was in 1974.

A new poll from Alaska firm Hays Research shows Senator Ted Stevens (R) and Congressman Don Young (R), who have both been caught up in ethics scandals, suffering from pretty bad ratings.

Only 44% of respondents gave Ted Stevens a positive ratings, compared to 38% who feel negatively about him. But as it turns out, Stevens' numbers are the good ones. Young has a positive rating of 34%, with 48% negative.

Democrats have yet to find an opponent for Stevens, but have been courting Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz and former state Democratic chair Jake Metcalfe are both seeking the Dem nomination to run against Young.

The environmentalist group Defends of Wildlife has a new ad running against Congressman Don Young (R-AK). Interestingly, the ad focuses more on Young's many ethics scandals, with only a short mention of global warming:

Big news out of Alaska: A new poll from Ivan Moore Research shows Democrat Ethan Berkowitz leading 18-term incumbent Don Young (R-AK) by a 51%-45.5% margin.

The poll also finds that a near-majority of Alaska voters have grown sour on the scandal-tainted Young, with almost 50% of likely voters having a negative feeling toward the incumbent, and 43% still feeling positive.

Berkowitz, the 2006 nominee for Lt. Governor in the state, is one of three Democrats in the race to take on Young, but the poll only tests his strength against Young. Another surprising finding from the poll: only roughly 15% of respondents did not recognize his name.