The Clock is Ticking...
We heard in the days following the election that Congress could have an economic stimulus bill ready for Obama to sign by Inauguration Day. After all, the stakes couldn't be higher, and Obama's recovery challenge is already being likened to FDR's.
Now the word is that the bill will be introduced next week and signed into law by Presidents' Day next month.
But let's look at the lay of the land. As Congress begins its session, the recovery plan is looking a lot like every other "major" bill that gets pushed through the painfully slow procedural works.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) says he expects at least three committees on his end of the Capitol to hold hearings on the bill. Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), chairman of the powerful finance committee, says his crew plans to tinker with Obama's stimulus plan in at least two major areas: energy and tax cuts.
And I listened this afternoon as Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) said he would introduce his new earmark reform bill -- co-sponsored by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), a close Obama friend -- as an amendment to the stimulus. Now, it remains to be seen whether Harry Reid will allow them a vote on it. But when the amendment floodgates open in Congress, they open wide.
We haven't even begun to consider the conference committee that is sure to result unless the Senate can agree to the House-passed bill, which is a highly unlikely outcome.
If you're wondering how on earth the stimulus can be passed by Presidents' Day, so am I; but I'm also wondering why Obama has effectively ceded Congress its traditional ground. What would have happened had the president-elect dropped his stimulus proposal on the web, for the nation to see, before lawmakers even got to town this week? Would that show of force, and assertion of popularity, have been the push Congress needed to shake off its old mode of operating?
As recently as New Year's Eve, Democrats were openly asking when they'd actually receive a stimulus proposal from the Obama transition. But a week earlier, on Christmas Eve, "more than 50 staffers crammed into a standing-room-only meeting last Friday night in the basement of the Capitol" to toss out infrastructure proposals for the stimulus bill.
When you've got a small army of junior aides in on the conversation, that old saying about cooks in the kitchen might apply.
Today we heard Obama emphasize fiscal responsibility in an appearance the AP said was "aimed in part at attracting more support from deficit hawks in Congress".
The clock is ticking, and a popular president is letting an unpopular Congress take the inititative.
"The clock is ticking, and a popular president is letting an unpopular Congress take the inititative."
How is he letting Congress take the intiative, when he and his staff are drafting the proposal? Is he supposed to do this without input from the people who have to vote on the ideas? That sounds like the way the Clinton's health care plan failed.
I don't really care who gets credit for "initiative" as long as they do something that works in the fairly short term and is set up to succeed long term. If it takes them an extra 30-60 days after 8 years of buffoonery, then I'll happily wait.
January 7, 2009 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're nuts. Dubya is NOT popular by any stretch of the imagination.
OK, OK, I know, but so much of this posting assigns to Obama responsibilities that belong to a President, not a President-Elect. BigO does have plenty of good reasons to keep his cards close to the vest until he actually is pulling the levers of power. Or rather, until Dubya has his hands off of them and can't throw any monkey wrenches anymore.
January 8, 2009 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing worst than getting the rug pulled out from underneath you before you have the chance to get your plan in motion.
January 8, 2009 4:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Off-topic... hey jzap I suspect we know each other... do the words 'Happy Fun Show' mean anything to ya? Just wonderin'...
January 8, 2009 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question.
If the economic stimulus plan is put on hold, what happens to the outstanding appropriations bills that Congress didn't pass last year?
I know that McConnell has said he would be fine with passing those in lieu of the economic stimulus, and that Obama needs to deliver a budget in February, but does Congress cave and just pass a continuing resolution for the rest of the year instead of passing the outstanding approps bills?
January 7, 2009 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope this is a joke. And if it is, it really is a bad one.
January 7, 2009 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
An Off-topic request:
Can people please take a moment and update their TPM profiles with a userpic? It's really quick and it really helps the conversation if folks have their own avatars. It's just hard to follow a discussion amongst an undifferentiated army of 18th-century scribes or whatever that guy is supposed to be.
Thanks. As you were.
January 8, 2009 2:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is that Obama will outline the plan tomorrow and have it ready for delivery on January 20, 2009 immediately after he takes the oath. Not much more he can do before that without alienating his supporters and further alienating his detractors in Congress. Another president did that on his first major bill and it result in a spectacular fail. Bill Clinton.
January 7, 2009 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's put it this way. If this doesn't pass by Feb. 13th I will completely lose faith in Government all over again. Obama has reinvigorated my trust and I hope he doesn't disappoint me.
January 7, 2009 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Elana has a point, up to a point. It isn't like Obama could have moved the legislation via the Internet nor is it necessarily true that it will take months to get a bill out. That depends very much on how Obama works with the Leadership and how he works the Leadership.
Strong arm tactics work only up to the point that you start to piss Congress off. Ask Jimmy Carter (lest you forget 1976, I haven't. "Let's show em how to govern" a Senate honcho told me on Inauguration day)
Bill Clinton's an object lesson as well
Best to follow Willie Brown's maxim for dealing with legislatures...you have to treat them like high class prostitutes
You make them feel part of the process...give em a little love and a little ownership of the product..This is harder than Bush or Reagan ramming through supply side tax cuts right off the bat
January 7, 2009 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neither have I. Both Congress and Executive were running off in opposite directions, neither side willing to let the other lead. Gave the repugs all the ammo they needed for 1980.
January 8, 2009 5:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of off topic, but I find it fascinating that obama is using the b-movie actor's playbook on dealing with the public. The last president-elect to have a sit down with all living presidents was the b-movie actor and this sit down was at the behest of obama. The guy really is a genius. Obviously, he won't implement the b-movie actor's screw america except the top 1% agenda, but he is using the theatrics to get stuff done. Amazing. We are going to see an incredible presidency over the next 8 years. I hope.
January 7, 2009 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since the last Administration was like the Wizard of Oz ... Don't pay attention the the man behind the curtain ... it will be a refreshing change.
January 8, 2009 5:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
When I part company with Obama it's generally on substance- he's simply well to my right. On tactics, I've learned not to bet against him- he didn't come from nowhere to the White House in record time by not being one hell of a savvy politician. So I won't bet against him this time either.
January 7, 2009 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good comment.
January 8, 2009 1:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Amen to that. Obama makes Bill Clinton look like Senior Class President.
January 8, 2009 2:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Couple of points:
1. Friday's unemployment numbers are going to be UGLY. As a result, this will put the fire cracker under the Congress' ass to move quickly on this.
2. This stimulus package will be the largest in history. As a result, it will NOT be done overnight. It is going to take some time to get done. That is the reality of it.
January 7, 2009 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
My prediction is still that this package will be ready for Obama to sign on February 12th, Lincoln's birthday.
January 7, 2009 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Do you mind if I wait until after Obama's big speech tomorrow rolling out his plan before I begin the ritual Democratic chicken little dance?
Obama's strategy during the Primaries and General Election sent many a Dem and Pundit into the "hair pulling out" mode but guess who generally ended up being right? You know, "that one".
I trust that Obama actually knows what he is doing and has a long term strategy. I don't know of anyone else who deserves the benefit of the doubt more then Obama.
January 7, 2009 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Would that show of force..."
I don't see this incoming Admin as forceful in that sense. Nuance, maybe. Incrementalism? Probably. Progressive? Only if you make it so.
January 7, 2009 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is it that when Obama faces obstacles and has to give a little to get a lot, he is practically called a pussy? Using terms like "letting Congress take the initiative", "caving", "bending", and all sorts of words to imply that he has no spine or conviction. Stop underestimating this guy - he keeps proving us wrong so many times, it's embarrassing. Here is a link to a story where the LA Times reports that Obama plans to campaign for the economic stimulus package. If done correctly, Congress may just get this done in a timely manner - I hope and pray. And please no lectures about one's right to question Obama blah,blah, blah...I like to give people the benefit of the doubt especially when they have consistently followed through. He will make mistakes and bad decisions but enough with the Obambi or same old same old talk. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-obama31-2008dec31,0,7930000.story
January 7, 2009 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the LA Times article above:
Now why, for the love of god, would anyone in his or her right mind consult those monkeys on ANYTHING to do with the economy? Seriously? After the last eight years, and the current meltdown that they are largely responsible for, they should, and hopefully will be, the very last source of economic wisdom for some time to come.
January 8, 2009 2:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do remember the Democrats were excluded from all meeting under the Bu$h Admin and the repugs didn't give a ratsa$$ the Dems were being shortchanged and ignored. So why should the Dems care if the repugs are complaining about the shoes the repugs made they have to wear now?
January 8, 2009 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
My impression of Obama is he floats an idea/concept then gages the reaction, both public and legislative. Once he gets the ball to roll in a specific direction, he hands the reins over to those more capable of nourishing the idea/concept to fruition. In this case Congress. It's his idea, but they make it happen and work. Something not seen in DC since Bu$h entered office. Perhaps what we're hearing is Obama's long-range strategy to get Congress back into the lead position of mining the facts, setting the foundation, running the plumbing and creating the rules necessary to enact legislation from an idea/concept floated by his Office.
Sounds like the Obama train is getting ready to leave the station and the President Elect is checking the passenger list and deciding who will be seated in Coach, First Class and Baggage.
January 8, 2009 5:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama doesn't want to make this "his". He doesn't want to burn any political capital to get it done, he's saving that for the health care fight.
On the issues where there is common ground and even certain consensus he'll get out of the way and let Congress take some stake and ownership.
January 7, 2009 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would be a shame if you are right. The stimulus plan could be a legacy moment -- in the first weeks of office. Not many chances like this come along for a President. A pressing national need, a President bringing all parties to the table, a decision that will resonate through the century.
Health care, on the other hand, will be political driftwood before it even gets started. Too many people are monetarily invested in the current system to allow it to change, and too many people are ideologically invested in opposing nationalized health care to see any change work. Any health care plan passed will be handicapped if not fatally crippled. It would be amazing if anything passed is better than what we've got (a pretty low standard, to be sure), and will definitely be a far cry from the working solutions in Europe.
That is, of course, unless Obama really is as good was we think he is. That would be great.
January 8, 2009 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
In this case, the legacy moment will be for the Legislature showing the public they can get their act together and come to their aid ... something the repugs haven't care about for the last 8 years - serving the public.
The big fight and legacy for Obama will be health care. That's were he needs to spend his earned political capital the most. The stimulus package is a black hole that could very well suck all his political capital and leave him nothing for the health care fight against repug and big business/medical/insurance profession opposition.
January 8, 2009 5:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so. I see this as a ploy to keep the clock running until all Dems are seated in the Senate. Just a guess, but that's how I read it. Those extra two seats may end up being important, especially if that idiot Lieberman balks at the stimulus plan, and those two seats may not be coming any time soon. Yes, the Dems still hold a majority, but you can bet your bottom dollar the Republicans will filibuster anything that comes into the chamber.
I am disappointed about the tax cuts however. I am hoping those are just a token of good will that won't make it into the bill. Any cuts now will make it that much harder to increase taxes down the road, which he will surely have to do to fund his other programs.
January 8, 2009 2:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama needs to assume the office and find out all the facts before he submits this bill to Congress. Believing that Bush, consumed with polishing his legacy, is giving Obama and the country the entire truth about our economic situation would be foolish. Remember, it took almost a year for the Bush administration to admit we're in a recession. Coincidential it was also an election year? Obama is doing the right thing to make sure he has all the facts first.
Also, the Republicans got us into this mess so they should have to carry some of the responsibility for what this bill will add to our deficit, or they will be able to bash Obama and the Democrats with it in the next election. The Republicans would prefer to be relieved of all responsibility for this bill.
January 8, 2009 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink