We now have our first poll looking at the open 2010 Senate race in Missouri, where four-term GOP incumbent Kit Bond's retirement has put this swing state up in the air, showing a very slight early edge for the Democrats.

The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D) test Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan against three Republicans:

• Against former Sen. Jim Talent, who narrowly lost re-election in 2006, Carnahan is ahead 47%-43%.

• Against Rep. Roy Blunt, who recently stepped down as House Minority Whip, Carnahan has a statistically insignificant edge of 45%-44%.

• Against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost in the GOP primary for governor last year, Carnahan has a healthier lead of 47%-36%, but is nevertheless below 50%.

The poll has a margin of error of ±3.3%.

It's obviously too early in the cycle to draw any sweeping conclusions. But generally speaking we can expect a very close race given the history of most statewide campaigns in Missouri, and this poll seems to confirm that.