GOP Surprisingly Nervous About Texas Senate Seat
Do Republicans think they could actually lose a seat in Texas, of all places?
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has taken another major step towards running for governor, The Hill reports, transferring nearly $8 million from her federal account into a state fund. Hutchison has also left the door open to resigning later this year, way ahead of the gubernatorial election itself. And John Cornyn, as both her co-Senator and as head of the NRSC, has been asking her not to do this, as it would set up a special election that could potentially give the Democrats their 60th seat.
One Texas Republican source seemed surprisingly concerned, telling Election Central that the state Dems are "going through a bit of a renaissance," and have two decent candidates lined up for the eventual Senate race in Houston Mayor Bill White and former Comptroller John Sharp.
"If Sharp and Bill White come back, there will be national Democratic Party money put back in Texas, and I think Republicans are gonna have to be on their A-game," the source said. "And that's something we will always fight to achieve, but gone are the days when Democrats would put up sort of B-team officials."
Mike Baselice, a local Republican pollster who works for GOP Gov. Rick Perry -- the man that Hutchison is on track to challenge in the primary -- told Election Central that the GOP still has a built-in advantage in the state, but it's not as much as it used to be. He calculates the party's starting advantage at 5.5 points, based on averages of various races throughout the state, when the same calculations gave a nine-point leg up before the 2008 cycle.
Baselice said that the Democrats would have a low probability of winning a special election for the Senate -- but he suspects Cornyn would prefer that probability to be zero, as in having no special at all: "Why even put the seat at risk if you don't have to?"
Calling Hussein Tena X!
January 15, 2009 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
No doubt!! I'd move to Texas just to vote for her!
January 16, 2009 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
So she may resign this year. Seems to be a kick in TX Dem's pants to get serious about the next race, even if she doesn't actually resign.
January 15, 2009 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Baselice is being diplomatic, to say the least. The GOP is scared sh**less about a possible Dem win of a Senate seat in TX, because they've been steadily, slowly losing TX for several years now.
Dallas county local elections in 2006 gave every single county office, from judge to dogcatcher, to the Dems. Houston is t-h-i-s close to having a similar situation.
Hispanics in TX are sick of GOP immigrant-bashing, among other things, and they are a rapidly-growing minority that will eventually take the majority in the state.
Dems are gaining serious traction in TX, as I've blogged about, throughout the recent campaign, for Huffington Post. We TX Dems do not find this development surprising at all and, frankly, are excited about the prospect.
It's about damn time, eh?
January 15, 2009 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The evanescent Hussein Tena X has said similar things. Go Texas Dems! Go immigrants, beat Neo-McCarthyism!
Kay was probably McCain's only realistic hope for a publicity-stunt Veep. (Quite unlike Klondike Barbie, one can well picture her as President.) I have kindly concluded (albeit in the absence of evidence) that she told the distinguished Senator to fuck off, and subsequently his people foolishly backed the Moose Queen.
Kay really wants this governor gig. And it sounds great, till you think of it as our Failed President's old job (half-time in reality as I gather). Assuming McCain offered her Veep slot, presumably she'd rather win the governorship than lose with the old man (and become this year's Geraldine Ferraro thus largely nullifying a distinguished career). That is why she likely told the happless McCain to go Cheney himself.
January 15, 2009 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You bet! It damn well is about time. The Republic needs to fight back against the blood suckers who have spent the last God knows how many years destroying it. May the spirits of Ann and Molly be with us.
January 16, 2009 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you guys not get a "Preview" button like us lowly commenters?
January 15, 2009 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Elana, Eric; Eric, Elana. Howzaboucha proof each others' copy?
January 15, 2009 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
My brother who lives in Tom DeLay's district says that Houston Mayor White will run for either Gov or Sen depending on KB's decision
The Texas All Star Team
Victory 1998
http://ronwade.freeservers.com/PosterBushAllstars.jpg
January 15, 2009 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Houston and would love to see Bill White run for her seat - he's gotten overwhelming approval as mayor of houston, and I believe he won his last election with 80 or 90% of the vote. I'm not sure how he'd fair statewide, but he'd be a good candidate. He's a little dry, but he's an effective leader. He'd be a great senator.
January 15, 2009 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
JESUS' TITS! WHERE'S TINA?
January 15, 2009 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, Tena...
January 15, 2009 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seeing as we're talking about Kay anybody know how she voted on the Pay Fairness Act? If she voted no then everybody in Texas ought to ask her if she is willing to take 77% pay of her male senate counterparts. That goes for her female staff too.
If it's good enough for women in the private sector it's certainly good enough for our public servants.
January 15, 2009 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why this assumption Democrats don't do well in special elections? I know it's conventional wisdom, but since 2004 at least, I don't believe it's true. Special elections are how Democrats gained a veto-proof majority in the Minnesota state senate, and how Dennis Hastert's seat was picked up.
"Hutchison has also left the door open to resigning later this later," Is the second "later" supposed to be "year"?
January 16, 2009 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
So beyond the Senate-seat speculatio, what's Hutchison's game here? Is she that at odds with Gov. Blowdry? My impression has always been that the Tex Gov job is in reality much less powerful than a Senate seat, and she's possibly a little old to be eyeing a Presidential run -- assuming it's in 2016 when she would have been Gov for a decent period, she'd be in her 70s.
January 16, 2009 2:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
KBH BADLY wanted to run for governor in 2004. In the worst way.
However, Bush/Rove and the Midland GOP crowd were backing Gov. 39%.Tremendous pressure was exerted on her by the Bush contingent, especially the Midland gang, to keep her in the Senate. She caved.
The opposition to Perry that year was divided, and Perry got elected with 39% of the vote in a 4-way contest with Kinky Friedman, Scott McClellan's mom, and a former one-term Democratic Congressman from Houston who was not widely known in the rest of the state.
Had the opposition not been as divided as it was in '04, it is very likely Perry would have lost.
In all likelihood, Hutchison's reasoning is, "I kept my end of the bargain and stayed out of it in 2004, but I'm going to take my turn now." Understand support for Perry here is soft. The only people that like him are the Texas Association of Business. Rank and file GOP, not so much.
I have no idea why KBH wants to be governor, as Texas is a weak governor state. I am guessing she's had enough of D.C. and wants to come home, but she's not ready to end her public career and wants to go out as a former governor in addition to being a former senator.
She's among the more reasonable of Texas Republicans, and I believe she's pro-choice and not as much of an ideologue as most of the GOP here. Unlike many GOP partisans, she understands governance and has actually done useful things for her constituents. She could be interested in reforming the state party.
Meanwhile, in a year when Democrats were energized as never before, Cornyn was polling ahead (but not by landslide numbers as one might expect in Texas) against his Democratic opposition, a former state legislator who campaigned hard but had no state name recognition and little money. Texas is a very, very large state with lots of space between major cities. Not all the urban TV markets overlap.
Given the Democrats' advances in Dallas County in 2004 and in Harris County in 2008, and the enthusiasm for Obama, one can't help but think Cornyn's race would have been somewhat more competitive, and he might even have lost, if only the national party and the DSCC had shown us a little love last year. Cornyn won in 2008 with 54% of the vote against an unknown Democratic opponent with little money who garnered 42% of the vote. Considering Rick Noriega's lack of name recognition and absence from most state television markets in the '08 campaign, you have to conclude most of that 42% vote was anti-Cornyn sentiment alone. (Two percent of the vote went to the Libertarian candidate). If Noriega had had a more visible campaign ... we can only dream.
We're on the cusp, people. Have faith, we're on the cusp. One or two, possibly three more election cycles and this state is going to turn blue, or at least a much purpler shade of red.
Republicans here know it, and that's why they're running scared.
January 16, 2009 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also note that Gov. Goodhair lost his home county by large numbers. The people that know him best don't like him. And what with the business of privatizing the highways and with more increases in the cost of electricity, he won't be in a good position to beat KBH in a primary. If he then decides to run anyway, that will split the Republican vote. Granted the regressive christianists will back him, but they are becoming less of a factor than previously, although they still are very powerful in Texas. I have no idea what the moneyed interests will do. I suspect they may go with Goodhair just because he's been so good to them these many years.
January 16, 2009 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few things:
1) Bill White (extremely popular mayor of Houston) is running for her Senate seat. He has incredible bipartisan, moderate appeal and a highly substantive record. His only perceived weakness is his record on immigration; though I consider this as a strength because it favors Hispanics, which are increasingly becoming thee primary voting force in the state. National party money will probably get behind him and not Sharp.
2) Gov. Perry is dead set on taking on KBH, aggressively if necessary. There's no doubt that KBH has an incredible amount of appeal among the electorate, but Perry has shown, time and time again, he's a smart, well connected man.
3) The demographics in the most populous counties in Texas are changing in favor of Democrats due to the rise in minorities (Hispanics, AAs, and Asians) and young people. This will spice things up.
4) Many more Republicans and Democrats will (and already have ) thrown their hat into the special election ring. This will cause lots of needless difficulty for both sides. Current thinking is that there will be more Republicans than Democrats. This may help Dems win. I'm hoping the national party gets behind a candidate soon...
5) If KBH goes for the Gov., many are suggesting that Lt. Gov Dewhurst (R) may run. Needless to say, he's well connected.
6) It's a very exciting time to be a Texas Democrat!
January 16, 2009 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
FW Startlegram quotes KBH saying it ain't so.
"If I step down, it would be in late 2009, if at all," Hutchison said in a quotation relayed by Todd Olsen, a spokesman for her gubernatorial exploratory committee.
January 16, 2009 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, that is confirming for leaving possibly late this year. Headline threw me off.
January 16, 2009 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
JackCarr and TexDem1--excellent analysis from both of you, and I totally concur.
My thinking about KBH wanting to be gov in a weak-gov state after having been sen is two-fold: one, it's way more fun to be a senator when your party kicks the other's ass repeatedly, which happened from '94 to '06. Not so much fun when your party's a laughingstock.
Also, she is one of these older moms who adopted two children when she was in her 50's. They are now about pre-school age, I think, or early grade-school (I could look it up but don't really care that much)--anyway, the back-and-forthing that senators have to do, what with all the fund-raising and stuff, really takes a toll on school-age children, whether you put them in D.C. schools or home-state schools. She may just be ready to come home to TX and go out on a high note.
KBH is one of the few Republicans for whom I have a grudging respect. She is a moderate and holds the distinction of having been called a RINO (Republican In Name Only) by Limbaugh--high praise in my book, if you've got to be a Republican.
Also, any time I have e-mailed, called, or written her office, either to rabble-rouse for a progressive cause or for something with which I might need my senator's help--her office has always sent a thorough, written reply, signed by KBH, through snail-mail. Always. So she's a good senator.
And she has worked steadfastly for troops and veterans. She doesn't just use them as photo-op backdrops.
Damn shame I can't vote for her tho, on account of how, after the Clinton Crucifixion of 1998, I swore I'd never vote for another Republican; I didn't care if their opponent was a murdering child molester.
(Joke, BTW.)
January 16, 2009 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Deanie. I was pondering her move, but didn't have the back story.
January 16, 2009 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
What has to have Republicans in Texas really worried is that for the first time ever in 2008, there was a competitive primary, and both Hillary and Obama built sizable organizations.
Remember the Texas 2-step, that featured a caucus after the primary? Both sides had to have incredible outreach to get voters to also caucus. I saw several thousand at just one Dallas area precint... a scene repeated state wide. Democrats know how to reach all those people. ...ones willing to do more than just vote. I know the Obama campaign has all their e-mail and cell phone digits.
Republicans, on the other hand, have won here so long without trying, I'm not sure they have much organization. They can't win in Dallas anymore,even tho it voted 70% for Reagan. They can't win in San Antonio or El Paso or Austin either, if Dems turn out. Repubs still dominate the 'burbs and rural areas, that makes the state a battleground,and for the first time in a long time, the Dems come to the fight well armed.
January 17, 2009 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink