The St. Petersburg Times reports that Florida Republicans are running into a problem in holding on to the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Mel Martinez: Their absolute best potential candidate, Jeb Bush, is starting to seem reluctant about making the race.

"I put it at dead even -- 50/50," said former Jeb aide Justin Sayfie, who met with Bush a few weeks ago. "I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to run, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided not to run." After Martinez first announced his retirement, state Republicans were generally sounding much more optimistic than this about lining up Jeb.

Even if Bush doesn't run, though, the GOP does have a few things going for them: The Republican primary is nearly 20 months away (it's held in late August), and the state party has a whole lot of elected officials making up a very deep bench. They would have plenty of time to find someone else and to make it a real race in the country's biggest swing state. But it would probably be much more difficult.