Today In The Minnesota Recount: Franken Doing Well With Challenged Ballots
We're watching today's big meeting of the Minnesota state canvassing board, so you don't have to. And guess what: All things considered, things seem to be going pretty well for Al Franken, though there some very important caveats.
At today's meeting they're reviewing challenged ballots, a process that is expected to last through to the end of the week. The board is looking over ballots that either of the two campaigns have had taken out of the count until now, arguing that it should be counted for themselves or not counted for the opponent for some reason.
Today's meeting is dealing entirely with ballots challenged by Franken, a mix of votes that Al's camp wants to have either prevented from being counted for Coleman, or to be put into his own total when they otherwise wouldn't have been. As such, Norm Coleman is going to pick up votes as most challenges are struck down, putting those ballots back in his column.
But Coleman's pick-up hasn't been that impressive, measured against the expectation that nearly all challenges would be overruled.
With 84 ballots reviewed so far out of over 400 total remaining Franken challenges, Coleman's net gain so far is at just 43 votes, and his pick-up rate has been pretty consistently around the 50% mark all day. When the board gets to Coleman challenges in the coming days, he'll need to keep Franken to a significantly lower pick-up rate than that, in light of the fact that Coleman has more total challenges.
Furthermore, Franken has successfully won some challenges that went against the opinions of the local election officials at the site of the challenge, meaning he's doing better right now than his campaign's methodology would have suggested -- its fundamental assumption was that all challenges would be defeated. And that same model had Franken leading by four votes.
The important caveat here is that we don't know what Coleman's challenges look like. For all we know, he could be just as successful with his challenges as Franken. And who knows what comes next as more and more Franken challenges get reviewed.
Late Update: It's worth noting that over the course of the day some Coleman campaign challenges have accidentally made their way into the mix, and the board has ruled on them, too. The Coleman challenges have all been rejected, but the sample size has been too small to really draw a broad conclusion.















FINALLY a Franken post! I was going into serious withdrawal there. . .
;-)
December 16, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is this, Day 763?
;)
December 16, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, this isn't day 763. Ritchie made a schedule early November, when he set up the recount, and so far the recount is following that schedule. No one anticipated the large number of challenged ballots, but otherwise this is exactly what we were told to expect. Frankly, this is extraordinarily orderly. The only thing that reminds me of Florida is Coleman asking the courts to stop the sorting of rejected absentee ballots.
December 16, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nearing 700 days since Al quit Air America to start this whole affair.
December 16, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
You missed the winking smiley in the original comment, obviously. :-)
December 16, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happens if Franken is ahead by three votes at the end of the challenged ballots but before the absentee ballots are counted.
December 16, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some counties already completed their review of Rejected Absentee Ballots.
December 16, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not following your logic, here, Eric. There are two categories of challenges: 1) a vote awarded to your opponent that you seek to have awarded to no one, and; 2) a vote awarded to no one that you seek to be awarded to yourself. Without knowing how the challenges break down between these two categories, how can you know what to expect? If the Franken challenges are split 50:50 between these, then Coleman winning 50% is expected if all challenges are denied. However, Coleman's challenges may well break down differently. If a larger fraction of his challenges are in the second category, it would be expected that Franken's "pick-up rate" would be lower.
December 16, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go Al! If Coleman is forced to drag this into the courts (e.g., trying to get them not to count ballots) and Franken is ahead even just by one vote, I'm betting the Senate seats him.
December 16, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Senate would rather have Coleman, and will jump at any excuse to seat him ahead of Franken. No specific reason, just a vague feeling that that august body has a "Not Our Kind, Dear" sort of impression about Mr. Franken.
Soliciting blowjobs and bribes is perfectly appropriate behavior for a Senator, but, well, the things Mr. Franken joked about in his previous career, it simply isn't done.
He trashed the place. And it's not his place.
December 16, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What, did they all turn into David Broder? Don't kid yourself, if it comes to that it'll be party line vote.
December 16, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you are right. We'll see.
I'll save my rant against Vichy Dems like Harry Reid and Evan Bayh until there's actually something new to rant about.
December 16, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thyink you overestimate the Senate's respect for Coleman. Those of us on the street looking in from the outside have heard and read about the impending Coleman couple conspiracy mess, and even as laymen, we can see it has legs. Do you really think the Senate Republicans, let alone the Senate Dems, want another big Senate scandal to lower their approval ratings even more?
If Coleman gets this, the Republicans will be facing a BIG mess, one they really don't want to deal with.
Right now, the R's are happy to have Blago to popint to. If Coleman gets the "win" the spotlight moves back to the Republicans.
And it is not a pretty light to be seen by. Think Delay, Doolittle, Cunningham, Craig, the list just goes on and on.
As the media spotlight goes, Coleman's the next Blagovich, especially if he wins over Franken.
And, BTW, "He trashed the place. And it's not his place." Regardless of what they may think, that Senate belongs to you and me and all Americans, so I think it quite arrogant of "them" to consider anyone an outsider.
If that is not true, then Rachel's right.
Lets just stop pretending and start calling the Senate the House of Lords.
December 17, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
If I remember or read it correctly Coleman's guys started out challenging ballots for any little thing and so after a day or so Franken's people followed suit until the head of the state election board told them all to knock off the frivolous challenges. Then awhile later Franken's people dropped challenges on about 700 ballots and Coleman had to follow his lead or look bad. Coleman is still challenging more so hopefully more overall ballots challenged by Coleman means more overall votes for Al in the end.
December 16, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the update. It is a little hard to follow but I'm glad the news is good for Al. I hope you post updates later.
December 16, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go Stuart!
December 16, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
WooHoo! I've been looking forward to Senator Al Franken since he signed off from Air America. Go Al!
December 16, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can actually watch this scintillating process live (when it's in progress) here:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/12/16/131928/83
The chairman moves each time for the most pro-Coleman outcome, but when the others disagree, they almost already disagree unanimously and he instantly moves for the pro-Franken (or neutral) outcome.
As noted, the nail-biter is seeing how it goes when they get to the Coleman challenges.
December 16, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know of course that if Franken wins the Republicans will scream bloody murder and of course the traditional media will spin the recount as a Franken challenge of Coleman's "victory". They have, so far, mostly failed to mention that the recount is required by Minnesota law and has taken place entirely within the framework and precedents governing it. Trust me, it'll be all Franken's nefarious plot according to AP, FAUX "News" and etc.
December 16, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
To Hell with what the right wing thinks of who won or lost based on a recounting of the votes. The process is very open and fair to anyone paying attention. Honestly I would LOVE to steal a Senate seat or two and get something done about the future of America and the whole world for that matter. How many senate seats equals one presidency in 2000? If there was medicine in a locked building and breaking in would be a crime and save your child's life, then what would you do? Of course you save your child! Well how many children died in Iraq at the hands of Bush? How many thousands and thousands die and someone wants to stop and think what right wing media is going to think.... please read Al Franken's book "LIES. And the Lying Liars Who Tell Them." The Fox crew is scared to death of Senator Franken. He knows their bullshit and has made a nice living calling them out on it. It only gets better from here on out!
December 16, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something big is left out of today's count.
Originally, there were over 6,000 challenges and Coleman led the counted recount by about 200. All the 6,000 challenges were left uncounted. Now all but about 1400 of the challenges have been withdrawn. Therefore, there are about 4,600 votes out there that could be for Franken or Coleman or neither, whatever the county election boards ruled they were. Nobody has counted the withdrawn challenges. They dwarf the number of challenged ballots. There's no mention anywhere about when these votes will be counted. There is only:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/36235224.html
December 16, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
as i understand, it is not accurate to say the ballots were left uncounted or that nobody has counted the withdrawn challenges. the votes were in fact counted during the hand recount. the challenges were to that count and the rulings at the local canvassing board as to whose column those ballots went. that the strib is not including the withdrawn challenges in their totals does not mean the ballots were never counted, it only means the strib's tally is that much less accurate.
December 17, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink