Special Election For Obama's Seat Put On Hold, Could Be In Serious Trouble
Plans for a special election to fill Barack Obama's Senate seat suddenly appear to be in serious jeopardy, after the state House Dems put the whole thing on hold last night -- a development that throws the whole situation into limbo and could quite possibly put this once-safe seat at risk for Dems.
"It hasn't been tabled permanently," an aide to a top legislative Democrat told Election Central. "It could die, but they are still working on it."
If the special were cancelled, the vacancy would have to be filled by Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn stepping in at least temporarily to make an appointment, and the situation could potentially set the Dems up for some danger in holding on to the seat by 2010. Whoever gets picked will face extra scrutiny, there would be questions about whether they were involved in the Blago scandal, and the possibility would exist for a backlash against the Dems because of the cancelled election plans.
The next step will be for the legislature to figure out whether they're going to do -- and how they would pay the massive $30-$50 million price tag if they did go ahead with an election -- or to figure out how they'll pick an appointee and manage the political ramifications of an appointment. But for now, this seat is still vacant.















and the situation could potentially set the Dems up for some danger in holding on to the seat by 2010
I think a special election NOW poses a bigger risk for Democrats than the potential of losing the seat in 2010. If I were a Republican, I'd be figuring out a way to pay for the special election so it could take place NOW. And if a Republican were to be elected, I'd say that person faces a bigger challenge in 2010 than an appointed Democrat, unless that Republican sides with Obama while in the Senate.
December 16, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. The biggest risk is a special election in 2009.
December 16, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me three.
December 16, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the possibility exists for the special election to be held in the already-scheduled 2009 local election, then why doesn't the legislature simply require a retention election in 2009 of the pick that Quinn makes. This would give the voters a say in the appointment but also allow an expeditious solution (and one that favors the seat remaining in Democratic hands). This is how New York deals with filling vacancies, as the Paterson appointee will have to stand for retention in 2010 and re-election in 2012. It seems a tailor-made approach for situation like Illinois is experiencing where the appointee doesn't want to be tainted by state politics.
December 16, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Illinois voters already picked a Dem for that seat in 2004, Obama, by an overwhelming margin. A lot of us spent the last two years wearing ourselves out physically and financially helping get Obama elected president. Not to mention helping a lot of other campaigns including Bill Foster's in IL-14 last winter. The last thing we want is another expensive, time and money consuming, winter election. Republicans in this state have disgraced themselves time and time again and your first instinct is to give them a concession? Another shot at hamstringing Obama thruough another US senate seat, his own, serves no one but them.
We have a perfectly good succession law in place. Blago isn't going to be making an appointment. No one would accept it from him, the IL Supreme Court would probably remove him immediately if he tried and the US senate probably wouldn't confirm his nominee anyway. He will be removed or resign one way or another soon. Quinn will become governor and make the appointment. If he wants to polish his own reputation he will nominate Roland Burris who has expressed interest, said he won't run again in 2010, is black and a well respected former statewide office holder.
December 16, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is good that it is on hold, spending that much is stupid, especially if it could go to a real election in 2009.
And I think the whole "face extra scrutiny" thing is a bit overblown...I think if the person is a solid pick they will be fine. JJ Jr. should probably be out of the running though, too much of a mess there.
I think Jan Schakowsky would be a perfect pick, her ethics are impeccable, she is principled, strong, and has absolutely nothing to do with Blago, and she already has a very strong, progressive record to run on.
December 16, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I like Rep. Schakowsky, one could make the argument that her ethics are less than perfect. Her husband was indicted on charges of bank fraud, and served 5 months in prison after pleading guilty to one charge.
While Rep. Schakowsky was never implicated, in this "gotcha" environment, she is not a safe pick. I would much rather she run in 2010, because she will probably win.
December 16, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well that has nothing to do with her ethics, and from what I have heard about the whole situation, it was a bullshit charge to begin with, but I haven't researched it.
Hell, just give Durbin two votes for a while until we can have a real election :P
December 16, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta love it. Blago isn't even charged with any crime (whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty) and you already claim that the Lt. Gov should step in. So to keep a theoretic $1 million out of Blago's war chest (and doing something which apparent almost all politicians do in these circumstance namely making sure that the appointee feels indebted to the appointer) the state should spend $30-50 million at a time when we are in an economin crisis.
Gotta love it.
December 16, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blago isn't charged? Wow. I guess all non-charged people are arrested, handcuffed, jailed, required to post bail and surrender their passport.
Charged and indicted are two different things. Get a clue.
December 16, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta love it.
Blago isn't even charged with any crime (whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty) and you already claim that the Lt. Gov should step in. So to keep a theoretical $1 million out of Blago's war chest (and doing something which apparently almost all politicians do in these circumstance namely, making sure that the appointee is indebted to the appointer) the State should spend $30-50 million at a time when we are in an economic crisis.
Gotta love it.
December 16, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blago isn't charged with any crime?
Really?
Do you know how to read? And I mean this in the most condescending way possible. Do you?
Are you really this stupid? It should not be so easy to ridicule you.
We need better trolls.
I demand better trolls!
December 16, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously. I guess the part about Blago being arrested and led away in handcuffs meant, in reality, that the police just wanted to get to know him a little bit better...
December 16, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
They did it to protect his covert identity.
December 16, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, OK, I suppose I meant indicted. Even then, he would not yet be convicted.
I hope he fights it. Not becasue I think he is innocent but because the amount of widespread backroom dealing might come into the light of day. And a lot of peole would be mentioned that I'm sure don't care to be. Now THAT would be fun.
December 16, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose you have no clue what you meant.
I suppose you just come here to say stupid things because you have no idea what the hell you're talking about.
Maybe next time you'll just type out your stupidity and then hit the back button instead of "Send"?
It'll feed your urge to be stupid, but will spare us all from having to make fun of you?
Win/win?
Give it some thought, type out your answer, and then don't reply.
December 16, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fitzgerald has been investigating Blagojevich since 2003 but he has yet to indict him for anything. After that press conference a week ago Fitzgerald better indict him for something soon or people are going to start wondering if he ever had a prosecutable case at all.
Compare and contrast his treatment of Rove who got to revise his testimony in front of the grand jury what was it 3 times? 5 times? and how he's treated Blago.
December 16, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, he's got his own rep to keep, Blago's going down, and soon.
(wow, when did I fall in love with commas so much?)
December 16, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or not.
Eric, my sweet, you're getting ahead of yourself again.
December 16, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are definitely getting ahead of ourselves.
December 16, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blago needs to resign for now. Let him clear his name then try and get re-elected at a later time. The repercussions of this drama could unfortunately have a negative lasting affect on Obama, whether it be justified or not.
Loosing another Senate seat would be a mess. Having Blago still in office and having anyone on that recording getting the seat would also be a mess.
Is there nobody that can reign in Blago or what? Isn't there a way to get through this guys head this situation is much bigger than his fragile ego?
December 16, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
No and No ;). Blagojevich has been isolated from most of his party since he was re-elected, and there are few people in Illinois who can tell him the truth in a way that he will listen.
Blagojevich is alienated from his father-in-law, who is the most likely person to set the Governor straight. Former Alderman Mell has a lot of political savvy, and he certainly sees the writing on the wall, but he isn't on speaking terms with his son-in-law and his daughter.
December 16, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blago needs to resign for now.
I really don't think he's going to do that. He doesn't give me that impression at all. He gives me the impression that he's thinking that his entire front of innocence depends upon his carrying on as if he'd never been charged.
That's what I'm getting from him so far, anyway.
December 16, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or it is that he is no more guilty than the vast majority of politicians and they don't want this to go any further for fear of being dragged into it. He's waiting for a deal. How ironic would that be?
December 16, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not at all ironic, inasmuch as almost everyone who is charged with a crime waits on a deal. This is SOP.
You like to read way more into things than are justified.
December 16, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
True. But I'm not talking about a legalistic plea bargain deal. What I mean is that someone somewhere will offer him a "profitable" deal if he just steps down. Maybe his wife ends up in some high-paying powerful position with little visibility.
What I'm suggesting is that he will be offered something very similar to the thing he has been charged with.
December 16, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blago is never going to be able to rehab his reputation or get elected to any office in IL again. Fitzgerald destroyed what little of his rep he had left last week.
He was already widely despised here. He's a stubborn self serving prick and goofy to boot. He made a campaign pledge in 2002 to not raise income taxes and he's kept it though even Republicans, the Chamber of Commerce and a whole host of conservatives not to mention Dems have said raising taxes is better than more casinos and selling off the lottery or highways as a way to deal with the billions of dollars worth of debt 26 years of irresponsible Republican rule left us.
So he tried to revamp the tax code with a huge VAT tax last year for business and that was so popular it lost 107-0 in the state house. Even though he didn't get a single vote he held a press conference and inexplicably spun it as a victory.
When that kid went off his psych meds at NIU last year and shot a bunch of students in a lecture hall he thought he'd look compassionate by emulating Vigirnia Tech's decision to tear down the building and then rebuild it. This is a major lecture hall that's about 10 years old, smack dab in the middle of the campus. It would have taken 4 years - by which time most of the students present that day would have moved on - and cost the state of Illinois $40 million dollars we don't have. Needless to say that idea didn't last long.
Like Bush the guy lives in his own little world and is so stubborn if R. Kelly's lawyer is looking to make a bigger name for himself and telling him he can help him beat the rap he just might be all too willing to listen. If he's kicked out by the Supreme Court or impeached he;s got nothing to lose anyway.
December 16, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have young children. Maybe the only "deal" necessary is to have his wife not go to prison, too.
December 16, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
fracking tags!
December 16, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
fracking tags!
December 16, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
O shit - I broke comments.
I haven't done that for ages.
December 16, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOL!
You are too funny!
December 16, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think what's missing from this conversation is an assessment of the state of the Republican party in Illinois. They have been in disarray for years and it doesn't look like they're going to get their act together any time soon, even before 2010.
There's little risk in running a special election now, and I don't think appointing someone now would jeopardize the Senate seat in two years. The best that the Republicans can put up for the election is either Judy Baar Topinka or Mark Kirk. Kirk isn't that well liked in Illinois outside his district, and Judy lost to Blagojevich in the 2006 gubernatorial election. I think Judy's the bigger threat since she already has run in a state-wide election, but not sure she will do well in a Senatorial election.
I actually like Judy a lot and voted for her in 2006. If she were to win, it wouldn't be that bad to lose the seat to a Republican. Judy's not a hard-liner at all, and is much more interested in getting things done.
December 16, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I just finished (surfed off early) a panel discussion on MSNBC with Jonathan Alter and some other guy just after the Obama press conference ....the Special Election is the best shot for the GOP in IL...so they said
Nice to have the 180 view from Eric
December 16, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS ..there would be no cost if the Special Election legislation is passed in the next few days...Could be piggybacked onto regularly scheduled Muni elections
December 16, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think if it is framed that it is going to cost the state $40-50 million to do a special election now and if the pick is someone who has no political ambition for 2010 and is noncontroversial than I think it will be fine.
In 2010 who will win the Senate seat will have to do more on on how well Obama does in the next 2 years. If Obama does a good job than the Senate seat will go to a Democrat. If he doesn't than it will be a lot harder to keep that Senate seat in the Democratic fold.
In terms of a special election if there is one, Obama is very popular in Illinois so Obama will put his full weight on whom ever the Democratic nominee is so that that person will win his seat. It will not be like Georgia where Obama didn't really get involved.
December 16, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a simple solution. Appoint a caretaker to the seat, a Democrat that has no desire to go though a real election cycle and hence will not run in 2010. Surely they can find at least on qualified person not tainted by scandal?
December 16, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
See: Burris, Roland. Checks just about every box (African-American, well respected, not interested in running again).
OT: After my high school graduation in '93, I found myself talking to a woman who was working for Burris' gubernatorial campaign. She asked me what I thought of Burris running against incumbent Gov. Jim Edgar.
I told her she didn't want to know what I thought. When she pressed me, I sighed and said, "He's running in the wrong election, at the wrong time, against the wrong opponent, for the wrong reasons." I then said that he should seriously consider running for Congress instead. The people in the conversation pooh-poohed me at the time. I didn't have the heart to rub their faces in it after Edgar crushed Burris the next fall.
Roland Burris could have had a MAJOR national profile. 15 years ago, he was maybe the hottest politician in Illinois - he'd never lost a general election, and had a great rep. He chose, though, to spend his capital against an incumbent Republican governor who had actually been doing a good job and was popular around the state. (Even my hometown's mayor endorsed Edgar - because he gave us a gaming license that finally pumped some much-needed revenue into our town.) No one was going to beat Edgar in that atmosphere. And Burris' career came to a dead stop.
December 16, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
They should give the seat away in a lottery...
December 16, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happened to the bean ball pic? Also, I can't make out the new pic, what is it? By the way, funny comment.
December 16, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's no "cancelled election" or "cancelled election plans". It was just a dumb idea floated as an answer to the perceptual problems Blagojevich's schemes gave the left by panicked misguided nervous nellies.
Changing the succession law from the governor picking the replacement to a special election damages the prospects of any Illinois senator ever getting the presidential nomination again. If we had such a procedure in place a year ago it might have very well have been the difference between a president elect Barack and Hillary right now. I don't see NY comtemplating changing their law.
I hate to keep harping on this but the answer to fixing those problems is putting stiff restrictions and penalties on pay to play in Illinois, not hamstringing any Illinois senator running for the nomination in the future. We have few enough good politicians as it is in this state. There's no reason to discourage the best of them from even making their careers here.
December 16, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign every word, every punctuation mark.
December 16, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're making a good, sound point. The special election stuff was reactionary, to say the least.
December 16, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a lifetime Illinois resident, let me say a few things:
1. There isn't going to be a special election. No way. The R's would like to have one since it gives them at least a shot at the seat, but that's all you need to know about why there won't be one. The Dems control both houses of the legislature and all statewide offices. Why in hell would they have a special election, where the seat would be at risk, vs. just appointing someone?
2. I can't imagine where Eric got the idea that an appointed Senator would be disadvantaged in 2010, but it just isn't so. Incumbents always have the advantage, and Pat Quinn is well-respected enough that whoever he appoints is not going to be tainted by Blago's problems.
3. They're NOT going to appoint a caretaker to the position. Why in hell would they do that? Why would they give up the advantage of incumbency in 2010?
4. The muni elections in the spring are NOT statewide. Some cities have them next spring, others don't. Chicago does not. The cost of a special election, even if held on Apr 7, would be considerable.
5. The appointment is Lisa Madigan's if she wants it. She's the only one with statewide recognition. Otherwise there are a number of potential candidates.
December 16, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
1) Correct.
2) Correct, with two notable exceptions (JJJ or Emil Jones).
3) I don't agree with this - for the same general reason that I did agree with #1. Illinois is a deepdeepdarkdarkdeepdark shade o'blue right now. There are several Dem candidates who could beat Mark Kirk or JBT in a GE for that seat in '10.
4) VERY correct - and overlooked by a lot of people. Any special election carries an eight-figure price tag, regardless of scheduling.
5) Co-sign.
December 16, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quinn is no fool. He's not going to appoint someone who is not squeaky clean, and JJJ has a cloud over him right now. I don't see him appointing Jones, either. He's going to pick someone who is seen as a good choice and he's going to pick someone who will be a strong candidate in 2010. Why pick a caretaker? What is the point? No matter how deep blue you think Illinois is, you never know what the political landscape might be in two years. It makes absolutely no sense to not take advantage of incumbency when you have it in your lap.
December 16, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you re-read what I wrote, you will see that I only mentioned Jackson and Jones as appointees who *could* *possibly* cause difficulties for Democrats in 2010.
Ergo, obviously, I get the idea that Quinn isn't a fool. However, the more that comes out about JJJ's involvement with the Feds, the better he seems to be looking. Don't write him off.
As for appointing a fill-in who won't run in 2010, the biggest reason you would do that - ESPECIALLY now - is to avoid favoritism issues later. Quinn comes out cleaner if he appoints, say, a Roland Burris to the position, who won't run in 2010.
With a good caretaker appointment, the seat is safe. The shifting political landscape - which, ironically enough, is why it's foolish to rule out someone like JJJ for an appointment - actually HELPS the caretaker argument, as all the top Dems who want to run can do so. Quinn will be seen as giving all of those contenders an equal shot, which is good for *him* as he looks to line up their support as he runs for a full term in 2010.
December 16, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will the senate seat selections in Illinois, Minnesota, and New York overshadow the general election?
December 16, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will the senate seat selections in Illinois, Minnesota, and New York overshadow the general election?
No. The only reason they're big news now is there is no other political news except for Obama picking his cabinet. Do you think the MSM's story about "lefties incensed over Obama's picks" had any merit? Well this gives them something to talk about other than financial stuff they know even less about that just makes people turn the channel.
December 16, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious if someone knows the answer to this:
If they proceed with impeachment prior to the Feds presenting their case, what facts, actual facts, will they have to proceed with. Are the statements by the Feds in the charges to be considered facts prior to them being challenged in court? Blago has not admitted any of this is true has he? Would the legislature impeach based on allegations?
December 16, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Illinois House has voted unanimously to form a committee to determine whether grounds for impeachment exist. This is the first step.
This committee will conduct an investigation, and then recommend whate
Criminal charges are not the same as impeachment charges. Blagojevich could be removed from office without ever being convicted of a crime.
Also, this is not the only criminal issue that Blagojevich is mixed up in. The actual indictment against him is likely to contain a number of the same charges made against Tony Rezko.
The bottom line is that this will not be a very fast process. Even if Blagojevich is impeached, actual conviction and removal rests in the hands of the Illinois Senate.
December 16, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second paragraph of the above should end, "...whatever course of action it deems appropriate: either to draft articles of impeachment, based on its investigation, or to not proceed."
December 16, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink