New Signs That Recount Momentum May Be Swinging Back To Franken
There are three big pieces of news just out now, from a Franken campaign press briefing, that could potentially signal a comeback for him in this long-running election vote-count:
• Under the campaign's methodology, Franken narrowed the margin against Norm Coleman yesterday down to 50 votes, compared to 73 at the start of business yesterday and 215 going into the recount, with about 7% of the vote left to be counted. A swing of 23 votes in one day is definitely good news -- as we noted yesterday, Franken needs something on that order. The question now is what correctable errors are to be found in the remaining votes, which remains a total unknown.
• Another big piece of news: Secretary of State Mark Ritchie has sent out a letter to local election officials telling them to separate out the rejected absentee ballots according to what reasons were used to discard them. This could be a sign that his office is taking seriously the Franken camp's contention that roughly 1,000 absentee ballots may have been wrongly thrown out by clerical errors, and should be re-admitted -- or he's just diligently preparing for the inevitable litigation over this matter.
• And an added bonus: Ramsey County officials say they've found about 200 ballots in the town of Maplewood, which Franken carried, that weren't counted at all up to now due to a machine breakdown, and were just discovered. Franken could conceivably get a net gain of one or two-dozen votes from these ballots. Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc Elias wasn't even aware of this going into the call -- he was informed of it by a local reporter seeking comment.
The initial stage of the recount, of manually counting all the ballots and separating out challenges, is expected to end this week. Next up, this goes to the state canvassing board that will review all those challenges -- many of them frivolous -- and will provide a test of just how correct the Franken campaign's methodology has been. After that...who knows.
What's that sound I hear in the distance? Could it be the sound of a wingnut marching precussion ensemble, loudly beating the drums of fraud and conspiracy theories?
December 2, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
You hear it too, huh? {sigh} But there was no way they weren't going to beat those drums if the recount went in Franken's favor.
December 2, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any wingnut band in Minn would pale in comparisson to the "Selected not elected" choir y'all have been singing in for the past 8 years.
December 2, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it was the wingnuts' insistant beating of those same drums during the Y2K recount in Florida that turned it into such an unholy abortion.
December 2, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they are down to 50 not counting the challenged votes Franken is going to win. As I recall Coleman challenged significantly more than 50 votes that all observers said were clearly Franken. If the Franken count is counting those votes, this is still a toss up. I have never seen an election so close and a count so meticulous.
December 2, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still kind of wary, but it's looking better. I still think that whoever's in front once those last 7% are counted is probably going to win. Normally courts don't like to overturn an election, just affirm what's been counted.
Of course, I'd love to be wrong on this one.
December 2, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect that what Eric meant by "under the campaign's methodology" was that the challenged votes are counted as going whichever way the local judges initially called the vote. (Or at least, that is my understanding of the way the Franken campaign is counting it.)
December 2, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Elias wasn't even aware of this going into the call -- he was informed of it by a local reporter seeking comment.
Who's Elias? He's not mentioned previously in the article.
December 2, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Marc Elias is Al Franken's attorney:
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2008/11/21/law-blog-chats-with-marc-elias-lawyer-for-al-franken/
December 2, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is all ludicrous. They should have a proper re-vote with only Coleman and Franken instead of haggling over individual votes. This is turning into a travesty of democracy. Who's going to believe the final result anyway, if the election is so close? Just like in Georgia, there should have been another election - might be time to change the law in Minnesota.
December 2, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, jm, your recommendation is all well and good, but the law demands a recount, and that's what the citizens of MN are getting. Isn't it a refreshing reaffirmation of justice, rather than a travesty of democracy, to pay such careful attention to the votes in order to determine a winner? Sadly, it is the prevalence of attitudes such as yours that impatiently brought about an abrupt and undemocratic end to the recount in FL in 2000. Hasn't that experience in shotgun democracy been etched on our collective consciousness enough to have us all rally around the process in Minnesota?
December 2, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign, seconded and Amened.
December 2, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Star Tribune is reporting a net gain of 37 votes for Franken from the newly found ballots.
December 2, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's the count from Norm Coleman's people.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35382149.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs
December 2, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't live in Minnesota, but I know there's been talk up there about instituting Instant Runoff Voting. If they did this, it could solve the problem in three way races. Of course, looking at some of the ballots, a beginners class in actually voting may also be appropriate.
Ultimately, no matter who is called the winner, the other side will contest the election. This thing won't be decided until the week between Christmas and New Year's, if that soon.
It's amazing that with nearly 3 million votes it could be this close.
December 2, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. The concept has already been challenged as unconstitutional.
December 2, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't hold my breath either, but IRV hasn't exactly been ruled unconstitutional. On the federal level, no federal court has ruled against it. It has passed muster in several other states.
In Minnesota, the ruling (Brown v Smallwood) was on a different system than IRV- one where if no candidate got a majority of "1st choice" votes, the "2nd choice" votes were added in, effectively giving some voters two votes in close races. That is not quite how IRV works. Hasn't stopped several municipal and state attorneys from concluding that a court would likely rule IRV unconstitutional based on some of that judgement, but a specific suit (Mn Voters Alliance vs. Minneapolis) has yet to make it out of the first hearing.
The main reason I don't expect IRV is because it's not in the interests of most state or federal elected officials who prefer the "don't vote for him/her, vote for me" argument.
December 3, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coleman challenging votes that are generally given to be Franken votes is a little like a football player committing an obvious penalty when not to would be to allow a guaranteed touchdown. At least, with the penalty, you still have a chance to prevent the score, or at least keep it to a field goal. Back to Coleman, challenging the ballots, takes a fairly sure Franken vote out of his column, and at best puts it back into some kind of play, a 'do over' if you will. Given the recent posture of the Canvassing Board, it's a gambit worth taking for Coleman.
December 2, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink