National Democrats Optimistic They'll Hold Obama's Senate Seat
With a special election apparently looming for Barack Obama's Senate seat from Illinois, do Republicans have a chance to snatch a Senate seat from the Democrats -- and in Obama's home state, of all places -- thanks to the Blagojevich scandal?
National Democrats say they're optimistic that they'll be able to hang on to the seat in this very blue state. "No one's gonna blame a Democratic candidate for that man's outrageous, illegal, and over-the-top conduct," a national Dem told Election Central.
Here's a quick rundown on where the race stands.
The Democrats have many potential candidates, who would fight for the nomination through a traditional primary: State Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, state director of Veterans Affairs Tammy Duckworth, and Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., just to name a few.
One candidate in particular seems to have been hurt by this scandal, at least for now: Jesse Jackson, Jr., aka "Candidate 5." A new Rasmussen poll shows that he's now the preferred candidate of only 18% of Democrats, compared to 36% just a week ago. And Jackson's loss has been Madigan's gain -- she's quite possibly the strongest local advocate for booting Blago ASAP -- as she's shot up from 17% Dem support to 32% now.
The GOP already seems to have a strong candidate waiting in the wings: Congressman Mark Kirk, who won re-election by ten points over a well-funded opponent, even as Obama was easily carrying his district in the northern Chicago suburbs. Combine Kirk's proven ability to get ticket-splitters with some extra disgust at Chicago Dems from suburban and downstate voters, and Kirk might just have a shot.
The GOP would obviously try to capitalize on the fact that the eventual Dem nominee, whoever it is, will have at least nominally supported Blagojevich's past campaigns. The Democratic candidate, meanwhile, will vigorously tie his or her campaign to Barack Obama, who will probably remain just as popular in Illinois as he was before -- and that would probably be enough to keep the seat in Dem hands, though not without a whole lot of money and energy spent along the way.
Maybe they can bring Alan Keyes back for a second try.
December 11, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keyes is the Gift That Keeps on Giving, Comedy Gold, a Joy Forever.
December 11, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL...or, they could always roll out Jim Oberweis. :-)
December 11, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, he'll be running. Count on it.
December 11, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I'd be somewhat surprised if he tried to run statewide against Kirk. He couldn't even beat Bill Foster - in Denny Hastert's blood-red district.
In a way, it's too bad. I do know him outside of politics, and he was always very nice to me. Even stayed at his house once when his daughter and (now) son-in-law coerced me to play in a chess tournament with them. But his policy positions just won't win a statewide general election.
December 11, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
They make great ice cream, too.
December 11, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't sweat this one. Madigan (who I suspect would emerge from a crowded Dem field) will roll Kirk all over the state - especially since Obama will (presumably) be lending his considerable star power to any special election.
Madigan's already well-liked around the state, and has won a statewide election on her own merits. Being part of a powerful political family hasn't cost her electoral goodwill.
JJJ was never the best candidate for this seat anyway, as he would have trouble garnering Downstate support because of his name - and that was before he picked up the nom de plume "Senate Candidate #5".
December 11, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree totally, based on every thing I've heard about Illinois politics.
Martin had a better chance of winning in Georgia than Kirk will have in winning Obama's Illinois Senate seat.
December 11, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I said below, it's highly highly likely that Madigan will want to run for governor... That's what she's been preparing for and that's why Blago wanted to send her to the Senate in the first place. Thoguh Dems have many other possibilities.
December 11, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
With Blago out of the way she's a shoo-in for either position. It's just a matter of what she wants.
December 11, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think becoming Senator would be child's play compared to becoming Governor.
The reason (as I stated elsewhere) is Pat Quinn, who is next in line for Blago's job and will very likely run in 2010 as the incumbent.
December 11, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quinn is not that popular. Even with two years incumbency, I think Madigan would beat him. I think either job is hers for the taking. It's just a matter of what she wants.
December 11, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Popularity numbers will take care of themselves if Quinn does a good job as the stand-in.
And I really can't remember the last time an incumbent lost for statewide office in Illinois. (If you count the Senate seats, then that would be Moseley-Braun in '98, but she'd have lost to a cardboard cutout of Joe Cannon.)
December 11, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quinn has been running for office for years and has never had the knack for appealing to voters. He's got only about a year before the primary campaign starts. What's he going to do in that amount of time that's going to make a difference? Lisa Madigan is, after Obama (and MAYBE Durbin), the best-liked Illinois politician. She'd thump him in the primary if she ran.
December 11, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be willing to wager a pint of Oberweis on that. :-)
A year is an eternity in politics - as proven by this presidential election cycle. Quinn's got some built-in advantages, especially in terms of party connections, that even Speaker Mike can't counterweight.
Also, keep in mind that, as the incumbent, Quinn would have the advantage of being in the media lights every day. State AGs don't get the same face time.
I don't think either one of them would do any "thumping" - in fact, I think it would be a very tough primary.
December 11, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since Jan Schakowsky has said she's interested in Obama's seat, I'm thinking Lisa Madigan will opt for the Governor seat. Rep. Schakowsky has a big advantage with her years in Congress. I really like Lisa Madigan, but she'll have a tough battle with a respected Congress member.
December 11, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Schakowsky is not well known outside of Cook County. Madigan, OTOH, has proven statewide electoral chops.
Schakowsky also has some personal issues (husband) that will doubtlessly be raised in a statewide election. (I disagree with that kind of politics, but it would be naive to say it won't happen.)
Madigan, IMHO, would win the nomination.
December 11, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to disagree. I'm aware of Madigan's public statements about becoming a senator. However, she'd face a very difficult gubernatorial primary challenge (Pat Quinn obviously wants the job - and not just as a placeholder - so she'd have to run against an incumbent who will have had almost two years to show his reformer cred). Of course, she could win - but in the Dem Senate primary, she wouldn't face a single other Democrat who's won a statewide race.
Also, the governor's chair in Illinois is much more vulnerable to party switches than the Senate seats. Except for Peter Fitzgerald's one Carol Moseley-Braun-induced term, I don't think my native state has been represented by a GOP senator in my lifetime. Ergo, she could easily be Senator-for-life - which is a significant move for a number of reasons, especially if she's looking for a national profile.
December 11, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see the sense of what you are saying here, but I am with the crowd above that thinks Madigan really means it when she says that she is not interested in the senate seat. I think that she really does want to be governor. I also think that she would beat Quinn if she ran against him, incumbency or no.
December 11, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't disagree with the gist of what you and others have said - except that I don't think she just breezes in and wipes the floor with Quinn at all.
Keep in mind, too, that there is no love lost between the Madigans and Blago. It's reasonable to think that part of the reason she has a jones to be Governor is to knock out an old family foe...who, as it turns out, she no longer has to knock out.
I know Quinn's not the *most* popular guy, but it's not like voters *hate* him. And the bar is pretty low right now, so if (huge word there) he lives up to his self-styled populist creed, he'll look pretty damn good to voters when the primaries roll around.
December 11, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lord, I would certainly hope so!!
December 11, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Duckworth is very unlikely to run in a primary. She was an appointee-possibility, but nothing more. Plus she's in the Blago Administration.
Madigan is almost certain to run for governor.
December 11, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eliot Spitzer Should Run: He Got a Raw Deal!
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=5125
December 11, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I heard an interview with Madigan on NPR yesterday in which she confirmed that she's "Candidate #2" on the tapes. She said that she was very surprised to hear that she was being considered because she's not interested in the Senate, she wants to run for Governor. Now, she could just be blowing smoke, but if we're going to take comments at face value until proven otherwise. . .
December 11, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
'Cept we can't. We've been given this script, see, called "Chicago Corruption," so Madigan cannot POSSIBLY be innocent. No other city on earth, gaad knows, Past, Present, or Future has the level of corruption Chicago has...
Blago is tiny fish. Inky-dinky in stature, scope, presence, and ability. 10,000 times worse STILL occupies the executive office. Why are not the cameras shoved in their snoots until they break?
The best thing to do with Blago is what will kill him the quickest: ignore him.
To bad the MSM didn't get that memo...
December 11, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Maher explained the phenomenon you observed in his "The Decider" stand-up special in Boston.
December 11, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
Too rich!
I hope it has occurred to both Obama and Holder that the only way to raise the bar is to first restore it. And that means investigations at least, and prosecutions if proved for what are clearly war crimes.
Then may an intake of breath be permitted.
December 11, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
National Republicans are also confident they'll hold seats in Idaho and Oklahoma.
December 11, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unlike Idaho and Oklahoma, both major parties do have a significant history of winning elections in Illinois.
In fact, prior to Blagojevich, I think (working from memory here) the GOP held the Illinois governor's mansion for 28 years (Thompson - 16, Edgar - 8, Ryan - 4).
December 11, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Repeat after me:
JAN SCHAKOWSKY!!
Best choice, hands down, it needs to happen.
December 11, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know you like her. But understand that if Madigan wants the seat, then it's game over.
Now, if Madigan really doesn't want the seat, then she's got a shot. My guess is that whoever the state party gets behind is your winner in that scenario.
December 11, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Policy-wise, Schakowsky would be the best possible senator, but the fact that her husband spent some time in the slammer probably makes it impossible in the current environment.
What about the idea someone on HuffPost suggested yesterday -- this could only work if Jackoffovich resigned before the legislature votes for a special election -- of having Quinn appoint Abner Mikva for the next two years?
December 11, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Abner Mikva? That's one of the most hare-brained ideas I've ever heard.
December 11, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with any cool appointee idea (as you referenced) is that Blagojevich is an off-the-board bet to hang on to his seat as long as possible, unless he's offered some sort of deal that doesn't involve a stay at the Graybar Hotel. From what I know of Patrick Fitzgerald, this seems particularly unlikely.
December 11, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's going to be getting mighty lonley at Camp Blago. Nixon-lonely. Arrogance must be fed. I predict instability is coming as the pressure ratchets up. I see a trapped animal, clinging to this scrap of prey that is not his.
So my prediction is we will wake up one late December morning to find that he and his wife have simply disappeared.
I don't think he's insane. Dumb as a fencepost, out of his depth, and now caught, without question. But not insane.
Just guilty.
December 11, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL...the instability has already arrived. I think that was part of the reason Fitzgerald didn't sanitize the criminal complaint - he wants that narrative out there.
Can't wait for the audio of the wiretaps to be released to the public. Should make for excellent (though not family-friendly) listening.
December 11, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm...this is why I respect Fitz, because he has an interest in narratives that consistently serve the public interest. I wish he had taken the Libby matter further, but I respect that he knew his constraints in that particular role, and abided by the rules.
Because we've seen precious little of THAT lately.
RE:Tapes, I agree. The bleeps are pedantic. Give us the red meat!
December 11, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The impeachment train is boarding. Blago will be gone by New Years one way or another.
December 11, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to believe it. But it takes two weeks to even get legislation for a special election for Obama's seat through the State House.
Impeachment, trial and conviction will take a LOT longer than that.
December 11, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two Weeks?!? What, have they never passed legilation before? Did IL become a state just last year? Are we still in the age of the LA Purchase, while we wait for Horse and Buggy to assemble the Assmebly? Could not a voice vote in both chambers end this in an hour?
What a fine questioning rant!
December 11, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I expect impeachment proceedings to begin next week. Blago knows he's cooked. The only reason he hasn't resigned is that he sees no reason to do so. That will change once the impeachment process starts. He'll resign.
December 11, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Naw. Blago will only resign as part of a deal with Fitz. Impeachment has no consequence so he can just wait that out. Criminal charges though are a big consequence and avoiding jail time is a good reason to cut a deal and resign.
December 11, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's wrong with this is that Blago benefits from resigning, not Fitz. If Blago wants not to resign and just wait to be impeached imminently, that suits Fitz down to the ground.
December 12, 2008 2:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think this is right. Blagojevich is all about leverage (as recent wiretaps clearly illustrate *chuckle*). I would hardly be surprised if he essentially tries to hold the governor's mansion hostage.
I am not saying this will work. But if Blagojevich was going to step down quickly, a la "Client No. 9", it would've happened already.
December 12, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
This works under a presumption of rational behavior on Blago's part. Recent events cast serious doubt on said presumption. :-)
December 12, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is the Governor's actions an isolated case or business as usual in politics?
December 12, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink