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Minneapolis Gives Up On Finding The Missing Ballots

Minneapolis has now called off the search for that missing envelope that's believed to contain 133 ballots favoring Al Franken, throwing yet another legal curveball into this never-ending recount.

The ballots were originally counted on Election Night and placed into a set of envelopes for this precinct numbered 1 to 5 -- but that "1" envelope now appears to be irretrievably missing. If the ballots are never recovered or somehow compensated for, it would cost Franken a net 46 votes, quite possibly enough to flip the race to Norm Coleman.

As we reported on Friday, the state does have an option here: Instead of just throwing out the votes of people who cast their ballots and were counted the first time around, the canvassing board can switch back to the Election Night tally in this one precinct, effectively undoing the loss.

During the Franken campaign's conference call earlier today, lead recount attorney Marc Elias strongly endorsed this idea: "Now you ought to know that there are cases that literally go back over a century throughout the country that counsel in favor of this approach."

No matter which decision the canvassing board ultimately makes, they should probably plan on a lawsuit from the losing side of the argument.


23 Comments

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Question, does the number of ballots the guy had in his trunk = the number missing from "envelop#1"...just a thought...???

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SFCWAllace is the prototypical troll. Has she/he really nothing else to do than to sit around all day bouncing from story to story on TPM, repeating right-wing talking points no matter how totally they have been discredited? There never WAS any truth to the "ballots in a car's trunk" story . . . and this precinct's missing ballots are entirely separate from the incident which was misconstrued as "ballots in an election official's car trunk."

I know you're not supposed to "feed the trolls," but I wish the SFCWallace's trust fund would evaporate along with the rest of our investments so that she/he would have to work for a living. Or look for work . . . good luck! Well, as has been said more than once, "You can't fix stupid."

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SFC stands for So Full of Crap.

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Bart, they said you were hung!

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"And they was right."

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When all you've got to hang your hat on is a case from 1903, you say "there are cases that literally go back over a century in support of our position."

If all the other guy has is a case from 1903, you say "they have to go way back in history to find something to support their position."

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As I noted on Friday, Minnesota did this exact maneuver back in 2002, on a recounted state legislative race that also had missing ballots.

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Was this a decision by the canvassing board? And if so, did anyone bring a lawsuit challenging the decision? And were the amount of ballots involved dispositive of the election like it appears to be here?

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It was the state canvassing board that made that decision. I don't know whether the call affected the outcome of the race, but that's pretty much irrelevant to the merits of it. The precedent is what it is.

What it is relevant to, however, is the likelihood of a lawsuit.

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Interesting. So assuming the canvassing board has a policy of following its former decisions, they count the ballots from the first read which presumably gives Franken his four vote lead (and still waiting the decision on the challenged ballots and the improperly rejected absentee ballots). And if the 46 votes are still dispositive after all that, then we get a lawsuit from Coleman on whether the missing 133 ballots should be counted (with, IMHO, both sides having plausible legal arguments).

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Couldn't these guys just agree to arm-wrestle to settle this thing?

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I'm thinking knife-fight.

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Pistols at 20 paces? Sir, I demand satisfaction!

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A bad thing about this sort of close race is that, like it Florida, the opinions of 100 people count more than all those who didn't vote. For a representative government to work, it has to represent everybody!

How big a deal would this seat be for either side? Aren't Republicans disorganized enough to not be able to stop a filibuster anyway?

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Denham's Dentrifice - that rang a bell for me - thanks to Google and you I was reconnected to Fahrenheit 451 - thanks!

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You're welcome. The Internet makes it much harder for people to destroy information, but it makes it much easier for people to reinforce their existing worldview.

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If, after the recount has been finished, and all challenges have been ruled upon, and the count on the election is less than 133 in favor of either candidate (which seems to be probable at this point), I don’t think the election should be ‘awarded’ to either candidate simply because these 133 ballots were lost.
After all, these 133 people showed up at the polls, voted through a machine, and through no fault of their own, had their ‘receipts’, ie ballots, lost by election officials. Why should this change the result?
How I envy states that have a paper backup in place. Here in PA we don’t even get a receipt when we vote, you push a button and that’s it, no punching, no receipt, no paper spit out, no lights, no sound of the transaction of any kind. I often wondered if I actually voted. I realize that absentee ballots are not usually counted in an election, yet I would prefer to vote this way simply because I could make a physical copy of my vote – something our state doesn’t deem necessary. Everything in Pennsylvania is trusted to an electronic voting machine and count. So, if this election had happened here, it would be over.
Rerunning the election is problematic for multiple reasons. A practical one is the expense and logistics. And, as an election is a snapshot in time, it would be easy to make the argument that a revote would reflect a new choice due to new circumstances and context, especially in that this election would be specifically for the 59th seat in the senate and under an Obama Presidency, something voters couldn’t have explicitly known on November 4th.
Because of this, I would propose the following:
Contact the 133 voters whose ballots have been lost (The machines do record who’s voting, don’t they?). Ask them to sign an affidavit stating whether: a) they voted that day b) the approximate time of day if they voted c) their polling place location. I would not go any further, asking them how they voted would open up a can of worms.
Even if the machines don’t record who voted and there is no way to identify these 133 voters, I would apply the method below. By the way, surveying all registered voters in this particular district would be much more practical and a better reflection of original voter intent on the race than that of re-voting the entire election.
Take the machine count vs. hand recount ratio from the rest of the election and apply it to the machine count on the 133 votes. If, for example, the handcount for Coleman or Franken is 98% of the machine count, multiply .98 times the machine tally on those 133 votes. That should produce a winner. It’s been a long time since algebra class, but I think what we are doing is defining a ‘significant figure’ of victory. If this doesn’t produce a victor, if the margin is just that small, then I say: survey the precinct, revote the entire thing, or have the Senate choose. Since a revote would cost Minnesota money, I would have the revote introduced as a bill in the state legislature. But, applying this method should produce a victor, and, more importantly, a legitimate claim of victory.

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These aren't receipts, they are paper ballots. In Illinois we get a "I voted sticker" as a receipt whether we vote electronically or with a paper ballot read by the other faith based machine, the scanner.

The machines do not record who the voter is. It's a secret ballot. I'd say if MN has precedent of counting them the way they were on election night then go with that number. Then ask the Republicans to explain why they don't trust the machines.

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"Minneapolis has now called off the search for that missing envelope that's believed to contain 133 ballots favoring Al Franken"

If they issue an amber alert it will get coverage on CNN. Nancy Grace can call in the electoral sniffing dogs from Houston and we will either find the ballots or get weeks of good ratings.

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Comments about statistics, margins of error, and the like were entirely enlightening and to the point. Nevertheless, it's hard to escape the fact that the eventually the winner in Minnesota will have received in the neighborhood of 1,210,000 votes, give or take four. Two years ago, on the other hand, the winner in Wyoming could have walked away with just 96,289 votes (in fact, the Republican won about 135k to 58k). Whomever Minnesota eventually sends to Washington, he will have received about 12-1/2 times as many votes as his colleague from Wyoming. (Let's not even talk about California!) Once in Washington, however, these differences disappear: both senators get one vote in, say, deciding whether to overcome a filibuster or sustain a veto.

By do means do all countries proceed on this basis versus, say, proportionate representation across the population. The Senate system inevitably--by design--gives disproportionate voting power to (heavily subsidized) farmers. Is there some rationale for continuing to do this, to say nothing of maintaining the filibuster that gives even more power to our country cousins?

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Changing the Senate would require massive restructuring of the federal government, constitutional amendments that would never pass, and if it became based on population alone, then the Senate would essentially be a second House.

The founders of the country created the Senate to give the people in less populous states a voice, and it has worked as a moderating influence on law more recently (senators have to be closer to the center to get elected, while representatives tend to be farther left or right.) Again, the filibuster prevents the majority from forcing extreme laws on the minority by requiring 60 votes to overcome it, exerting a moderating influence. Without it, the Republican years we just passed through would have been even worse; now that Democrats are in power, they should expect much the same that they gave when they try to pass more liberal legislation.

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The Founders didn't give anything; the states demanded it if they were going to join with other states to form a federation. We are, fundamentally, a nation of states, not of people. Although, once joined, there's no backing out even if fundamental changes occur.

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To disregard those now lost ballots would be to disenfranchise those 133 voters. Accepting the election night tally would only disenfranchise a couple of voters where the intent could be determined only through hand inspection. I can't believe any other decision would even be considered. Disregarding these ballots would be a handy guide for stealing elections.

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