It's Official: Franken Picks Up Three Dozen New Votes!
This is huge. It's now official that Al Franken netted 37 votes from those newly-discovered 171 ballots in the St. Paul suburb of Maplewood, a potentially seismic shift that could throw the recount to Franken if these numbers withstand any potential legal challenges.
Ramsey County elections manager Joe Mansky just confirmed to us by phone that Franken picked up a net 37 votes over Norm Coleman from these ballots. The ballots were just discovered this morning, after an apparent machine breakdown on Election Night prevented them from being counted the first time around -- but the hand count had no similar problems picking them out.
Mansky also addressed a complaint by the Coleman campaign, which alleged earlier today that these suspicious new ballots meant more votes were being recorded from this precinct than the number of people who had signed in. "It looks to us like they [the election workers] forgot to add in the voter registration information for the absentee voters." When the registration data was added in, the numbers matched -- meaning the Coleman campaign's complaint apparently has no merit.
Let's put in perspective what this means. The Franken campaign estimates that they trailed Norm Coleman by 50 votes as of last night, taking into account their methodology on the challenged ballots. This number alone now reduces Franken's deficit to a mere 13 votes -- a number that could be easily undone as the remaining 7% of the ballots are counted. So depending on how other factors turn out, things are suddenly looking very good for Al.
Late Update: To add another number into the mix, the Star Tribune currently pegs Coleman's lead at 305 votes -- but this number has the flaw of taking all challenged ballots out of the count completely until the canvassing board adjudicates them, and there are about 20 times more challenged ballots than the apparent Coleman lead.
The Franken camp's methodology comes from taking down what the opinions were of the local election judges on those challenged ballots. This method, too, has a flaw: We are dependent on the Franken campaign's data being accurate, and also on their assumption that the local officials' judgments on those ballots will be upheld.
Good work, Eric = this is huge!
December 2, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
How crazy is this that 37 votes is huge??
December 2, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Out of 171 votes, Franken collects 104 and Coleman 67. I'm no math major, but I think that's about 68%.
December 2, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, this is pretty big. And I've been a detractor of Franken's chances. Well, here's to some luck on those last few votes~!
December 2, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have, too. Things looked really bleak. WOW! Franken really could pull it out of his ass.
December 2, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, totally off topic, because I am sooo burned out on the you can call me al multiple posts.
I just saw a piece on msnbc where school kids were going nuts in philly when they saw obama. He walked across the street to shake their hands and was "freaking out" the secret service. You could hear the children screaming in the background. The thing that I really love about this whole obama thing is that the kids are so excited and in awe of obama. I don't remember that with any other presidents. Talk about being good for the country, and especially the kids growing up. It really is awesome.
December 2, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was like that with Kennedy, but not quite as much so. Different times; the culture wasn't nearly as personality-driven then. Obama is an international superstar, which is pretty amazing since he didn't set out to be one and is the first president I can recall in many many a long year, who didn't come in with delusions of grandeur about his own person.
December 2, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was like that with Kennedy but not so much in this country. I had a Social Studies teacher in 7th grade who traveled a lot during the summer. One summer he spent traveling throughout most of Central America and he told us that everywhere he went people were telling him how much they loved JFK. This was about five years after the assassination. And, isn't it a little unusual that so many countries around the world have printed JFK memorial postage stamps?
I think it's already starting to get that way with Obama and he's not even in office, yet.
December 2, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama is an international superstar, which is pretty amazing since he didn't set out to be one and is the first president I can recall in many many a long year, who didn't come in with delusions of grandeur about his own person."
Uh...Dude, I have to call bullshit. He had his own seal, has now invented the "Office of the President Elect" has written 2 books about himself before he turned 45...you can call him many things...humble and unassuming are not on the list.
December 3, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just him being president changes everything that this country's ever known. I think the kids pick up on that.
December 2, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
He was a kid magnet before the election, now that's multipled exponentially.
It's wonderful. Everyone under the age of 25 will look at the presidency in ways that are profoundly different from how us old geezers look at it.
Speaking for this old geezer, of course.
December 2, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, there is one thing I haven't seen too many people comment on besides me. The Smile.
It's killer and he knows how to rock that smile.
December 2, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh no, here goes the discussion into his personal magnetism again.....
Seriously, he does smile like a kid, open. Even if it's a misperception of mine, if he has just a bit of a kid in him then he far better suited to lead a country. We've seen what a narrow perspective does to this country.
December 2, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
O - that reminds me. I have seen whole issues of Obama-ness on the magazine stands - special publications devoted just to Obama. It reminds me of the Beatles. There were any number of publications that were just about the Beatles in the 60s. [wish I hadn't thrown all mine away, or the trading cards; I bet they could have been worth something now since we're all so damn old...]
December 2, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whole magazines? I hadn't seen that. Wild. It really is.
December 2, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, there's a couple special Time ones on his life and the candidacy, and also a Life one. I think that there are more.
December 2, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It makes you wonder how much personality and branding will factor into how future presidents are chosen. Over the last 8 months, "Obama" has become a brand (the mere picture of his face has come to represent "hope" and "change"). I think there will definitely be a greater push towards candidate branding in the future, based on the success of Obama's campaign.
December 2, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This old geezer, too, CT. Who was the last political figure who excited inner-city, minority children? Scratch that - bad analogies.
I think Obama's effect on the nation is going to be much, much bigger than any of us realize.
All that idealism that we thought died in 1968 - it was just hiding, waiting for the right person to lift up.
Shit. I thought I was done crying over this.
December 2, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The heads of the nutters here in MN may explode if Franken pulls this out. They've been bleating and braying about how Franken's been trying to "steal" the election -- now their worst fear may come true.
December 2, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless what happens, there's going to be heads actually exploding up there. It's nice to sit back here in NM and watch it from afar.
In other news, any news on Georgia?
December 2, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
MN SOS site has the current count (as of 8pm last night) showing a plurality of 4,108 in Franken's favor (!), with 5,943 challenged votes split almost evenly between the two. It shows 91.13% counted. This is looking do-able.
December 2, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
O man, would I love to see this happen.
December 2, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get too excited by those figures. The remaining counties have a republican tilt. The Star Tribune has done a good job of comparing recount tallies with the original tallies, on a precinct-by-precinct basis, and if you trust Franken's own accounting, he's doing the same. Of course, any true accounting is obscured by the 6000+ challenged ballots, but Franken is not ahead at this point, and won't be until the challenged ballots are resolved on Dec. 16.
December 2, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well you needn't be concerned, Allsburg - I do not lose sleep over whether or not Al is going to win this.
But it would be sweet. I'm not exactly enchanted with either one of them after the campaign, but I think Al would do a good job.
December 2, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Resolved starting on Dec. 16, or by Dec. 16?
December 2, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 13 vote margin counts the challenged ballots since the Franken camp comes to the 13 figure by assuming all the challenges are overruled. Franken has been picking up 1.8 votes for every one percentage of the recount completed. There is 7 percent left to be recounted. If he continues to pick up votes at the same rate, he would pick up 12.6 more votes. In other words, a tie. And still waiting the decision on the improperly rejected absentee ballots (which may or may not help him)
December 2, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
So what you are saying is that, theoretically, one of the candidates could win by one vote. Now this is getting fun!!!
December 2, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he's assuming ALL challenges are going his way. I was under the impression they were counting only ones they are pretty sure will pass muster.
December 2, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Franken's camp's figures - down by 13 now - assumes that both sides will lose ALL challenges. From what I saw on the Star Tribune site, that looks about right. 90% of the challenges are frivolous, the others have some merit but the decision of the canvassing boards are reasonable and will probably be sustained. And I don't think there is any reason to believe that more of Franken's challenges will be sustained than those of Coleman. Therefore it looks like the recount will end with one candidate having no more than a five vote lead over the other. And then you still have the question of the improperly rejected absentee ballots. If the recount ends with a five vote Franken lead, does Franken still pursue the rejected absentee vote issue (not knowing whether those ballots will help of hurt him)?
December 2, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if 90% of the challenges are rejected, that still leaves 600 new votes added into the mix. Considering the small margin we're likely to see at that point, that's a pretty big number. Even a slim advantage in upheld challenges can turn the election. This one's a crapshoot.
December 2, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
In that scenario, then Franken's camp will let it be? 5 votes up is a win.
December 2, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric:
Is the phrase "newly discovered" officlal press release or you just made it up?
"Newly discovered" is a PR disaster to be candid.
Anyway, I saw your mugshot (picture) on the other thread, is your hairstyle for real?
;)
December 2, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well clearly, whoever wins, it will be "by a nose"-- which will sound anti-Semitic in either case.
December 2, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be the moron here, why is 'by a nose' anti-Semitic?
If it's obvious, bear in mind that I'm from Kentucky, where 'by a nose' has a definite equestrian meaning.
December 2, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty sure the equestrian race meaning of "by a nose" is the original one.
Any anti-semitic implications are in the mind of the implier.
December 2, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's good--I thought I might be missing something.
December 2, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be honest, I will be shocked if Franken ends up winning this thing.
December 2, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, another off-topic. I just heard david, the right-wing hack, gregory refer to the king's freedom agenda. I never heard of that one before. Maybe charlie should have asked rambo of the north about his "freedom agenda." Anybody have any idea what the "freedom agenda" is? Sounds kind of like the every child left behind law.
December 2, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would be very happy to steal this one anyway they can and call it a partial payback for stealing the Presidency in Florida.
How many stolen Senate seats equals one stolen Presidency? Hmm?
And how about all that Republican voter suppression that comes roaring out everywhere they think they can get away with it? How many elections has that cost Democrats? We always try to see that everyone has a chance to vote and every vote gets counted. They always pull dirty tricks and bogus legalities to get thousands and thousands shut out.
I say let's take this "tie" to the new Democratic Senate and bring a loudmouth liberal into the worlds greatest deliberative body.
GO AL!
December 2, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
December 2, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless there's some serious, definable, egregious flaw in the vote count, there is no chance the Senate is going to overrule it. None.
December 2, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will CNN call it for Saxby Shameless right at 7pm or wait to sell some fake drama?
December 2, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they'll call it for martin as opposed to the draft dodger. Now that would boost ratings.
December 2, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed.
December 2, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shameless will unfortunately win by 4-5%
December 2, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed.
December 2, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Coleman is very smart to have challenged so many ballots. With a supposed lead of over 300 votes, Coleman will call BS if those ballots come back and give the win to Franken. We'll see what happens. But personally? I think Franken's count of a 50-vote deficit is probably more accurate.
December 2, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
minnesota needs a re-vote. georgia doesn't. so georgia gets the re-vote and minnesota gets a hopelessly imperfect recount. this country's electoral machinery and system sucks. about the only positive here is minnesota has no katherine harris ken blackwell type.
December 2, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, georgia has a katherine harris/ken blackwell type.
December 2, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doubtful that it'll come down to that, though.
December 2, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree - both candidates should agree to a special election now and have both parties foot the bill. This election result is going to stink either way as it will be too close with questionable ballots excluded and accepted that could have made the difference.
December 2, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Franken actually has a lead of over 4000 votes, according to the Secretary of State's website.
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
December 2, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, wait! ...What?!
December 2, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose 4,000 Franken votes just fell out of the ceiling.
December 2, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeeeeah...
December 2, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
But the counties that start their recount tomorrow went for Coleman by over 13,000 votes in the first runthrough. As a result the Secretary of State website is meaningless in trying to figure out who will win.
December 2, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Santa better have some ballots buried in his sleigh ...I wouldn't bet the lump of coal in my stocking on Big Al
December 2, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver predicts a 12-14 point win for Saxby based on early returns.
December 2, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I was being too generous with my 4-5% prediction. Martin was always a long shot and his best chance was piggybacking a win off Obama on election night.
December 2, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch the GOP try and make a huge deal out of this tomorrow.
December 2, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see a positive. This propels the category five moron remain the face of GOP.
December 2, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course they will. But let us not forget that the only reason Georgia was as close as it was, was because of black support. I really just don't think Martin has the kind of black support or enthusiasm that Obama had.
December 2, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would say that it was definitely a lack of enthusiasm as opposed to a lack of support...combine that with all of the "only-thing-standing-between-Obama-and-your-guns/money" ads that were ran to motivate the nutters around here and Martin really didn't stand much of a chance, unfortunately.
It's too bad, really. Martin is a decent man and would have made a good senator. Chambliss is, quite simply, an embarassment.
December 2, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
So that remaining 7% equals what, about 200k (to be counted)?
December 3, 2008 4:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I bet the final will be a difference of 5 votes....
It will forever be used as how valuable your vote will be.
December 3, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink