Illinois GOP Sees Real Chance Of Swiping Obama's Senate Seat
We usually don't give much attention to internal polls, but this one is interesting: The Illinois Republicans clearly think the Blagojevich scandal has put Barack Obama's former Senate seat at risk for the Democrats, and they're ready and eager for a special election fight.
The state GOP has released an internal poll, conducted by the Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates, saying that 66% of the state's voters favor holding a special election. The poll also includes an example of what is known as testing negatives. This practice is different from a push poll, in that the pollster is genuinely interested in collecting data to see how responsive the public would be to an attack line, in this case connecting Democrats to Blago:
If a candidate for office in Illinois supported or endorsed Rod Blagojevich's re-election for Governor in 2006 even though he was already under investigation for 3 years, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate? If it would make no difference, just say so.
Not surprisingly, the "less likely" position gets a 70% response. And since any Democratic candidate will have at least nominally supported Blago in 2006, or perhaps even campaigned for him, the GOP really sees an opening here if a special election were to happen.
If the Repugs steal Obama's seat, I think we Democrats should get to punish Blago ourselves.
If that happens, I'll be utterly furious.
December 17, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the Repugs steal Obama's seat, I think we Democrats should get to punish Blago ourselves.
If that happens, I'll be utterly furious.
December 17, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stoning's too good for him. Let's use size 10 shoes.
December 17, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you (times two!)
December 17, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
i dont think a Repug will win the seat. that seat will stay blue. Illinois cant afford a special election so someone will have to be appointed. and whoever that is, they will have 2yrs to prove to the people of Illinois that they are worthy of reelection.
December 17, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't take this -
I sit and wait for it to post and wait and wait and then it doubles.
Later.
December 17, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one who finds the "sign in" process on the site utterly clunky? Before the "improvements" that were made to relieve the high traffic during the election, posting was simple and easy, as was changing you TPM profile. Now, the "sign in" "process" takes me automatically to my profile for an "update" (which I didn't request), and then when I'm finished and click "return to original article," takes me to some unrelated piece that I wasn't even reading, rather than the piece i WAS reading and want to post about. Also, I've tried about 50 times to change by avatar and it hasn't worked a single time. This is progress??
December 17, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't had this problem (yet). Have you tried e-mailing them (using the "send comments" link at the top)? I had a major problem with getting erased a few months ago and Lila fixed it right away.
December 17, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Roger on all of the above; the improvements suck. I've sent about 90 e-mails to "help@tpm.com" which is a dead e-letter office, evidently, since no one responds. I can't see my posts and I can't update my profile. SUCKS.
December 17, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not double-posting. Since you've identified yourself as an Enemy Of The Administration(tm), the the NSA's auto-copy posting duplicator is archiving your posts. I guess they need more money out the TPM Online Wiretap budget to fix the problem...
December 17, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Alan Keyes is a fan of this great state and looks forward to parachuting in for the special election.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
December 17, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah they can steal the seat with Allan Keyes.
December 17, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, Norm Coleman's lead actually GREW yesterday?
According to Newsday:
Republican Sen. Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken grew slightly yesterday as a special Minnesota board began refereeing more than a thousand disputed ballots in a process expected to last several days. The incumbent led his Democratic rival by 264 votes, up from 188, after the five-member state Canvassing Board spent five hours squinting at piles of ballots
December 17, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Canvassing Board mostly reviewed ballots challenged by the Al Franken campaign yesterday.
The Franken campaign generally challenged ballots which would otherwise have been for Norm Coleman. Therefore, it makes sense that Coleman's lead increased yesterday.
December 17, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not going to happen.
December 17, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
What a laughable poll. The way the question is worded, I'm shocked only 70% answered "less likely".
December 17, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I can't believe only 66% of Illinoisans want a special election. I thought it would be over 85%.
And the wording of the Blago endorsement question - "already under investigation for 3 years" - should produce a much higher negative rate than 70%.
December 17, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Illinois Republicans.....hmmm. Unless they bring back Lincoln, they got no shot.
December 17, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. They haven't fielded a credible candidate for statewide office in this state all decade long, why does anyone expect a special election to be different?
But if all the state voters want is someone who did not support Blago in 2006, vote for me! I supported his primary opponent in '06 and voted for the Green Party candidate in the general.
December 17, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
If they brought back Lincoln, its rather doubtful he'd be willing to run as a Republican.
December 17, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a crap poll. If the Repubs think THIS means they've got a shot, let them fritter their dollars away on a campaign.
December 17, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
And you can say the exact same thing about Bush...because I'm sure all of them at least nominally supported him, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?
Judging by Bush's approval ratings I'd say 70% or more would say "less likely".
Hey GOP, guilt by association sucks huh?
At least ours involves real policy issues.
December 17, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Take Caroline Kennedy please! Or have Oprah run.
December 17, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Oprah is qualified whereas Caroline isn't?
ROFLMAO, djamo. You just don't like Caroline - it has nothing to do with her so called lack of experience, does it?
December 17, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Oprah is qualified whereas Caroline isn't?
ROFLMAO, djamo. You just don't like Caroline - it has nothing to do with her so called lack of experience, does it?
December 17, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was being slightly sarcastic. I like Caroline, but likability is not qualification for Senator. Oprah speaks out on issues publicly, whereas Caroline Kennedy by her own admission has been a very private figure for 51 years. Oprah is a celebrity of her own making, not because if the family she was born into. Oprah's written books! Oprah has done more charity work than Caroline Kennedy with money that she earned and raised, did not have it handed down to her. Oprah's outspoken, she's a fighter. Of the two, I'd much rather have Oprah as my Senator. Plus every voter might get a car. That would be cool!
December 17, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saying Illinois is a blue state over and over agin won't make it so should there be an election for Senator. Republican Mark Kirk has a very good shot at the job. Dan Seals did no better running against Kirk in 2008 than he did in 2006, when Obama was not on the ballot. The post is right on - Illinois' superstars Durbin and Obama said nothing, looked the other way and supported sleazy scumbags at the local, county and state levels in Illinois. (And think of Durbin's excellent timing two weeks asking that Bush pardon the previous govenror of Illinois serving time for corruption). Obama has little credibility at this point to come into the fight - what does he say - ignore what's going on in Illinois and think of the big picture? Plus if he does come into the fight and there is an election then the Illinois senate race will become a potential do over of the November 2008 election in terms of policy. In any case a Senate election in Illinois during the first couple of months of this Administration will be hugely distracting. Democrats in Illinois must clean house. Yes, every state wide office is now "blue"; a little more than a dozen years ago they were all "red." No one likes sleaze and corruption.
December 17, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Illinois GOP sees real chance of swiping Obama's seat? How excellent for them.
I see a real chance of me shagging Angelina Jolie and Jennifer Aniston at the same time.
Boy, this "seeing real chances" stuff is easy when your whole worldview has been based on just making crazy shit up for about the last decade.
December 17, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink