Franken Camp's Claim: We're Now Ahead!
In a briefing going on right now with reporters, Al Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc Elias made a stunning announcement: According to the campaign's methodology of tracking the recount results, they believe Al Franken now leads Norm Coleman by a margin of 22 votes.
This would be the first time that Franken has claimed a lead in this drawn-out process, and was clearly made possible by the discovery yesterday of ballots in the suburban St. Paul town of Maplewood, which gave him a net gain of 37 votes.
A few caveats are necessary. The Franken camp's methodology involves taking down the opinions of the local election officials regarding the challenged ballots, and assuming that all the challenges will result in those local officials being upheld by the state canvassing board. As such, we are dependent on the Franken camp being complete and accurate in their homework, and also on their underlying assumption proving to be correct.
There are also still about 138,000 ballots left to count, which could contain a whole lot more surprises.
Late Update: Elias also announced that the campaign is withdrawing 633 of their ballot challenges that they've concluded have no chance at all of being upheld, the first step by either campaign in pulling back on that particularly nutty element of this recount. This also means that Coleman's apparent lead under other methodologies, which exclude all challenged ballots, will be increasing by around 600 votes.
Go Al!
It just got ten degrees warmer here in Minneapolis. Sun's out. Beautiful. Keep the faith!
December 3, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice! I'd love for Franken to not even have to need the disputed absentee ballots.
December 3, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure Al Franken would like that, too.
December 3, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Twenty two votes, 138,000 left to recount. Don't break out the Champaign just yet. This is far from over. It is still a dead heat.
December 3, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, in fact it was a tie on Nov 4, it was a tie yesterday, and it's a tie today.
December 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, we're okay with error in polling and it doesn't really matter. It's tougher to swallow the fact that ballot counting will always have a margin of error. I think states should hire actuaries to calculate, transparently, the margin of error in an election's ballot counting process; if the margin of victory in the final count is less than this margin there ought to automatically be a runoff election (not a perfect word for this, maybe revote?).
December 3, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't go breaking out central Illinois college towns too soon. I agree completely. :-)
December 3, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
so if they're ahead by a couple dozen, and they withdraw challenges to 600, doesn't that mean franken is actually BEHIND, and NOT ahead?
December 3, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, they assume that all local decisions about challenges will being upheld, regardless of whether they were made in Franken/Coleman's favor. That means the 600 withdrawn challenges were already factored into the Franken +22 figure.
December 3, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
Can you comment on/explain the Minnesota Sec of State site, which right now has Franken AHEAD?
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
December 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess: Some uncounted precincts in Coleman territory.
December 3, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The SoS site measures the actual tabulation of votes in the recount (minus all challenged ballots); the StarTrib site measures the difference between the recount results (minus all challenged ballots) and the initial count. While it is heartening to see Al ahead on the SoS count, it doesn't necessarily mean he's winning the recount because the vast majority of the counties that began their recount only today went for Coleman on Election Day.
December 3, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
good that we had the runoff in georgia because this election has such a clear winner.
December 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you contemplate two opposing statements simultaneously?
and
My head hurts.
December 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe we can get a methodology tabulation page or something. I mean, what does the Coleman team think that they have? What about the SOS? The papers? I guess it's going to be confusing for some time yet.
December 3, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The statements aren't mutually exclusive, so it's pretty easy.
Certainly, it's much easier than, say, reading a McCain press release during the general election. :-)
December 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al isn't using funky Clintonian-Terry McAuliffe-Howard WOlfson- Lanny Davis primary math is he?
December 3, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want Franken to win but I'm a little suspicious of their most recent claim. They seem to be picking up votes (even setting aside the 37 vote gain from the discovery of uncounted ballots) at a greater pace than they were at the beginning of the recount and I don't understand why that would be the case.
December 3, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a general consensus/stereotype that when ballot errors do happen, Democratic voters are simply more likely to be the ones incorrectly filling out their ballots and not getting counted by a machine.
A lot of the recent recounting has been in Minneapolis, which is urban (more voter errors, and errors by local officials in the initial count) and heavily Dem (a huge overall percentage for Franken).
The ugly truth is that the kind of errors we're seeing here, like in Maplewood, happened this past November in probably every single Congressional race and the presidential contests for all 50 states plus DC. It's just that those other races weren't close enough for anyone to care about it.
As I said, we're dependent on the Franken campaign's homework and their assumptions about how the canvassing board will rule on all the challenged ballots. And we won't know any of that for at least two weeks.
December 3, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, we are still at a coin toss then.
It's a shame that when one submits a ballot, it isn't checked right there. So the voter won't even get to leave unless it's legit. I know it's harder, but in NM we had to feed the ballot into a machine and then got an OK.
December 3, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was a judge here in MN for this election (FWIW, my precinct's recount came out with numbers identical to Nov 4, and no challenges!) Some additional info based on my experience:
Some ballot validation is done by the machines, but it is/was limited. In our area, for example, overvotes (voting for more candidates than allowed) are auto-rejected, but not undervotes. We had a half-dozen of those in my precinct, all of which were given a new ballot and eventually successfully voted.
My understanding is that this is basically to speed the process and keep judge intervention at the machine to a minimum. A ballot rejected for any reason (even if it's just that the voter is jamming the security cover too far into the machine, so the ballot rejects as "too thick"... a fairly common issue) generally requires an election judge to assist with evaluation of the problem/re-submission of the ballot. More often than not, people don't realize what might be wrong, and while the display on the ballot counters does present a reason, it is relatively small, quick to reset, and cryptic.
Bottom line, dealing with a rejected ballot obviously takes time and blocks access to the ballot counter, and if it's busy, that means people lined up simply waiting to put their ballot thru...
I assume the reasoning is, undervotes are far more likely to occur intentionally, so let's not auto-reject those, leaving it to the recount process to catch machine-based errors if the race is actually close enough to make a difference. Minimize disruption on election day, maximize efficiency, maximize flexibility for the voters... and we've got the paper trail to fall back on if/when it matters.
For my part, I suspect the majority of the issues being found are on absentee ballots. From the creases from folding (to get it in the envelope) causing difficulty during feeding into the machine, to the voter not having easy access to a replacement ballot if they make a mistake... far more likely to get read errors.
Anyway, that's my two cents as someone who was right in the thick of it all day.
December 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cool--thanks for the view from inside.
December 3, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
So what you're saying is we still run our elections like a 3rd world country....Why, oh why can't we have a Holiday on Election Day and some sort of National Voter Registration?
December 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I absolutely believe that.
December 3, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Withdrawing the most baseless challenges makes sense to me from a spin perspective.
So long as Coleman was challenging willy nilly, Franken had to do likewise so as not to appear to be falling farther and farther behind. Evening taking this we're-in-the-lead business with a grain of salt, now that he is positioned to claim he is competitive, Franken can afford to trail by roughly the disparity in the two camps' challenge totals and even make Coleman look silly for over-challenging.
December 3, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Minnesotans are insane for letting it be this close. If you voted for Obama why on God's green earth wouldn't you want a senator who won't try to stop him from doing what you voted for him to do?
December 3, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a theory, based on a race in Bernalillo Co. New Mexico. In that race for a seat in the US House, both the Repug and the Democrat campaigned so negatively that by the time it was all over I was thoroughly sick of both candidates and might not have voted in that race if I voted in Bernalillo Co., New Mexico.
I think the negative campaign hurt Al. I think people may well have skipped voting in that race, regardless of who they voted for for president.
December 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
My theory is Al just isn't that funny.
December 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. As a resident of Bernalillo County, the House race was really disgusting. I voted in it, but by the time I voted I hated both of them. My thinking was: "well, Obama can get more done if there's another Dem".
But the candidate himself? I didn't like him at all. Still don't. If he ends up in some scandal it'll serve me right.
December 3, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean as insane as Maine?
December 3, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's an excellent point. Here in Kentucky, most of the losing Democratic candidates did better than Obama did, either in that district or statewide.
Easy explanation is racist democratic voters, although the losing Democratic candidates all lost to repug incumbents, so it could simply be the incumbent effect.
But for Obama to have done so much better than the senatorial candidate of his own party makes no sense.
Is there a single Obama voter willing to step up and explain why he/she voted for Coleman or didn't vote at all in the senate race?
December 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
In some cases, it's blowback from the situation with Governor Ventura a few years back. Franken lost votes from some, esp "less than active" politically folks, simply because he's a "celebrity" candidate... lots of people who are not big on repeating the celeb-pol experience, regardless of the details.
A sizable portion of Barkley's votes came from that crowd, I'm sure (anecdotally, I know of 3 in my circle of acquaintances).
I'm sure the negative campaigning was part of it, too. Hordes of "disgusted moderates" around here, to be honest.
And instead of not voting at all (highest voter participation pctage in the nation, after all), we Norskis and Swedes pull the passive-aggressive maneuver and vote for "Lizard People" and the like (I _so_ hate write-ins.)
December 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
And gosh darn-it, people like him!
December 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al has learned that it's tough to be a funny CANDIDATE...
"...anything you say can and will be used against
you in a disingenuous 30 second commercial..."
December 3, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
The secretary of state's office in MN gives Franken a big lead
December 3, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's because the areas left to be recounted are disproportionately Coleman-leaning. Even Franken doesn't think he has that kind of lead. I think you can assume that Franken's numbers represent the most pro-Franken case that can reasonably be made at this point.
December 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite. Methodologies which exclude (ignore) challenges won't change if challenges are withdrawn.
Any methodologies which assume challenges will be upheld will of course need to revise their totals after the Franken camp withdraws some of the most iffy ones.
December 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like there's some movement in re: the rejected absentee ballots. They've not agree to segregate the rejected ballots according to which of the four legal reasons by which they were rejected with a fifth pile consisting of those which were rejected for reasons other than those specified in the law.
December 3, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
TwinCities.com is reporting that Franken has just lost 47 votes because of an overcounting error in Minneapolis. This thing gets stranger and stranger
December 3, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know who is going to pull this thing out, but, two days ago, if I had to lay money on it, I would have said Coleman. Today, the opposite is true. And that's a big bit of progress.
Franken's methodology is not pure spin or wishful thinking. It is a reasonable assumption that the canvassing board will resolve the vast majority of challenges in the same manner as the local election judge. The timing of his withdrawn challenges announcement is not coincidence. Franken is trying to stake out the moral high ground so as not to be accused of election theft if/when the canvassing board awards him the election in two weeks. There is alot of love/hate with Franken and if he is seated he is going to start with close to half his constituents hating his guts and honestly believing he was not legitimately elected. He will have his work cut out for him.
Don't believe either the Star Tribune count or the SoS website. Nate Silver has some good analysis as to why.
Bottom line -- Franken is better than even money to actually pull this thing out, and, if some of the rejected absentee ballots are brought back in, you could even call him a clear favorite.
December 3, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sincererly hope Franken wins, but ... doesn't anyone else see the resemblance?
December 3, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/663/jokerfrankenmi6.jpg
html tag didn't work.
December 3, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, I voted for and support Obama, but sending this clown Franken to the Senate is like the Republicans electing Ann Coulter. The times are far too serious. He's already made a mockery of Minnesota's legal process with all of these court motions, and now he's threatening to drag the Seante itself into the fray - which has far more important things to deal with right now than the egocentric antics of a perfomance artist politician. At least the late Andy Kaufman would have known how to play this for a laugh.
December 3, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you believe in voting and the right to free elections? Why should Franken lie down if he thinks he has more votes that weren't counted or mislaid, or intentionally set aside/hidden? Isn't this a good test of the American (or at least Minnesotan) election process? Why would you oppose it?
Just because you dislike Franken is WAY beside the point. Get a clue, dude.
December 5, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, I voted for and support Obama, but sending this clown Franken to the Senate is like the Republicans electing Ann Coulter. The times are far too serious.
Hey look, I'm as big a concern troll as anybody. My father was a concern troll. *His* father was a concern troll.
But let me tell you something: I find your concern trollery concerning. The times are *that* serious.
December 3, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and while we're at it, does anyone else think Coleman looks like Klaus Kinski's nebbish love-child?
December 3, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he looks like a cross between Willem Dafoe and John Stewart... Not a pretty combination.
December 5, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The important thing here is not who wins the election but in the election process itself, if it is working as it should. From what we are seeing, it does seem to be working in Minnesota. I think Franken, progressive that he is, would agree.
December 5, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink