Franken Camp's Claim: The Hand Count Is Over -- And We're Up By Four Votes!
Four votes.
That's how many votes the Franken campaign just said they're leading Norm Coleman by, with the hand recount now officially finished. In other words, with every single precinct in Minnesota now done counting (except for the one where they're still searching for the missing votes), the Franken campaign is claiming the lead. An extremely slim lead, but a lead nonetheless.
"We are not declaring victory -- we are moving into the next stage of the process," said Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc Elias, in a press briefing going on now with reporters. "But we are going into that ahead by four votes."
At the end of this hand count, it's worth restating a few necessary caveats. The Franken camp's methodology involves taking down the opinions of the local election officials regarding the challenged ballots, and assuming that the local referees' calls will be upheld by the state canvassing board. As such, we are dependent on the Franken camp's numbers and assumptions.
The state canvassing board are going to be the ones who truly decide this race, as they rule on each challenge one by one. The Franken camp thinks this process will end with them ahead by four votes, or possibly even more, but clearly there is plenty of potential variation left.
Late Update: Just to be clear, the Franken camp is also assuming that those missing ballots in Minneapolis, which give Al an edge of 46 votes, will be found. And as we reported earlier, the votes could potentially be credited back into the totals even if they aren't recovered.
If that's even close to being true, I'm really at the point where I have no idea how they're going to resolve this thing. What a mess.
December 5, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there any case where a court ordered a re-vote?
December 5, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"... I have no idea how they're going to resolve this thing." Let me help you out, das2003. Here's how they're going to resolve this thing.
If the process ends with Franken ahead, let Coleman sue. If it ends with Coleman ahead, let Franken sue. The recount process doesn't matter. The legal process, on whatever basis suit may be brought, doesn't matter.
The reason none of it matters is because the election ended in a tie! There can be no reliable, mutually agreeable way to reach concensus on too many of those ballots to ever reach a conclusion with complete certainty. Therefore, as per the Constitution, the decision is up to the Senate as to whom they wish to seat.
The Senate is controlled by Democrats.
Al Franken will be the next Senator from Minnesota and GOP protests be damned. They'd do the same thing in a heartbeat.
December 5, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
But this doesn't include the missing votes, or the votes that were just found and never before counted, right?
December 5, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. This assumes that all the missing votes are included. The amount of challenges left (after each side withdrew about 650 each) is approximately 5400. (I'm sure that other challenges will be withdrawn as the board starts to review ballots). The canvassing board has as much time as it needs to review the challenges.
And there still is the question of the improperly rejected absentee ballots and whether they will be counted and which side that counting favors.
Jeezus Christ - 4 votes!
December 5, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the details on the numbers.
December 5, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
>>. In other words, with every single precinct in Minnesota now done counting (except for the one where they're still searching for the missing votes), the Franken campaign is claiming the lead.>>
Based on this, seems like this does NOT include the vote from the precinct with missing 133 votes.
December 5, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
First you are assuming that the absentee ballots were improperly rejected. Having voted absentee here in Minnesota for a few elections now, I can tell you if you don't follow the instructions to the letter your ballot will be rejected. Now according to the MN secretary of state's web site with 99.93% of precincts reporting, Norm Coleman has a 710 vote lead. There are 6655 Ballots that have been challenged by both sides. Those will be looked at by the canvassing board starting on Dec. 16th. As for the rejected absentee Ballots, the individual counties will be re-examining them, that process started yesterday (Dec. 5). After that the canvassing board will decide to either examine them or to not examine them. If they choose not to take that issue up, either side will be free to take it to court. Sorry this is so long winded, I'm actually sick of hearing about it every day and night.
December 6, 2008 4:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
How long does the canvassing board have to review the challeged votes? How many challenges are still left on the table? Hundreds or thousands or tens fo thousands?
December 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: thanks for your comment about the huge refrigerated warehouses...
December 5, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
No problem.
December 5, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I want to get rid of the odious Coleman, a coin flip is the only rational way to resolve this. There is no way the system is capable of determining a "real" winner when it's this absurdly close.
December 5, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is safe to say that whatever "official" number the system can come up with is more legitimate than a coin toss.
December 5, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or rather, it will have a veneer of legitimacy that isn't actually warranted by its accuracy. And that's before the lawsuits start.
December 5, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they should let Kevin Costner decide it. No, wait; he's a republican. OK, I"LL do it!
Seriously though; I am going to send this to my daughter's Econ Professor who devoted an entire lecture to the subject of how your one vote doesn't matter in an election! What a dopey thing to tell young people!
December 5, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
I was just thinking that this is the perfect example to use with students to illustrate how individual votes do, of course, matter!
December 5, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
While the Constitution is silent on the role of the Federal government in elections, thus mandating the States to develop an election system, I think this is a valuable lessons learned to get the States to get their acts together as one...not as individuals. There is no reason why it took so long to arrive at a final tally only to realize it's not accurate or correct. Perhaps there needs to be a change to the Constitution separating State elections from Federal elections to give the Feds some input into the election process.
December 5, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the ultimate states right and Republic basis of our democracy. We allow the states to organize themselves as to how to specifically elect their representatives to Congress under basic principles....
That said we need to start moving our electoral system into the 21st Century. One day polling invites multitude of errors which are magnified when you drill down 3M votes to a difference of a handful of votes. Yet the peoples will is what the election is about even a people's will of plus one.
The best system I have seen is this:
As open and inclusive as possible: I like Oregon's effort to have mail in ballot and collection of ballots over the course of a month to start. They are paper and can be tracked. I like WI's [final] day of election registration where residency final determination can be the night can be the night before the [final] day of election.
I like fusion party system like NY, Maine, CT and NH where 3rd parties can endorse and have major party candidates in their slot and a vote for the candidate in either slot counts for the candidate.
But none of that precludes a hand recount where it is down to a handful of votes. The thing is I have confidence that the good people of Minnesota will figure this out to the best it can be done.
The disputed ballots will be worked out....and so will a determination of the 133 ballots....
December 5, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
But there's too many definite maybes in that mix you've stated. While I agree it's a state's rights issue, the States need to get their acts together and decide on a format easily understood by all no matter where you live as well as transparent and easily tabulated and re-tabulated to achieve the same results without tossing in a guess-factor in the final decision.
December 5, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is soooo 2000.
December 5, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, but no, it isn't. All the votes are being counted and in a very transparent way. The challenges will be very clearly determined. There's no sort "Brooks Brothers Riot" shenanigans of any sort. All in all a very good job is being performed by our canvassing board and the AG.
December 5, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: SOS not the AG
December 5, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on CC. This is not a mess. The normal variation associated with a process like this usually does not come into play. Well, it is this time and Minnesota has methodical, transparent procedures for dealing with it. No claims are being made about perfection. Rather, all are doing the best they can with an imperfect system. All systems are imperfect.
And our democracy allows people to bring unresolvable disputes to the courts. Both sides have a claim to winning because things are so close. The court will weigh the evidence and make a decision if they are so called upon.
I like how the professionals in place are doing their jobs and not getting rattled by the headline manufacturers. And it's also OK for Franken, and even that slimeball Coleman, to be banging their drums. They are trying to win.
December 5, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric Kleefeld -
Is the Franken campaign assuming the 133 missing ballots from Minneapolis will be found in saying they're up by 4?
December 5, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if they're not found, there's apparently precedent in MN for going with the election night count from that precinct, instead of simply ignoring votes that clearly were cast.
December 5, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well whatever~ the american nazi party stole the Presidency in 2000 in Florida, in all likelyhood they stole it again in 2004 in Ohio, and they have a long blatant history of using voter suppression and voter intimidation in elections all over the country. If this race is tied or anything close to tied .... I WANT IT TO GO TO THE US SENATE AND BECOME A WIN FOR THE LIBERALS!
How many senate seats equals one presidency anyway???
I want a loudmouthed liberal in the Senate who makes the southern redneck fascists afraid to open their mouths for fear of having Al's foot put in it.
December 5, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al Franken is really not the shrieking liberal you seem to think he is.
December 5, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe not, but he is a loudmouth (and a funny one)! Of course he would have to tone it down in the Senate, but I think we could count on him for some well-placed and well-timed jabs. And a guy who titled a book "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot" obviously has a liberal bent.
December 5, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I fell in love with Al after reading his book~
LIES. And the Lying Liars who tell them.
There are pictures of Coulter, OReilly, Bush, and Cheney on the cover.
This man is smart and funny and fearless!
December 5, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is, however, a devoted follower of the late Paul Wellstone, and that's more liberal than anybody in the Senate with the possible exceptions of Bernie Sanders and Russ Feingold.
December 5, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wellstone was my favorite Senator. I went to school at a small liberal arts college near the one Wellstone taught at before he ran for senate. Good, smart, and practical is a culture that nurtures the success of liberal thinkers. I was also in DC when he died and was heartbroken to see the flags flying half mast at the capitol.
December 5, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
This whole thing is making my head hurt.
It just seems to get more and more confusing every day: 144 votes were found in this precinct, 133 votes are missing in that precinct, Franken's camp says this, Coleman's camp says that, the SOS's office says something else.....it's turning into one big clusterf***.
December 5, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The dirty little secret of the electoral system is that EVERY election is like that behind the scenes. It's just that normally, the results aren't anywhere near close enough for it to matter, and so the rough edges never become publicly known.
December 5, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
And given the razor-thin closeness of this race, the likelihood of a court battle looms ahead.
December 5, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing wrong with going to court. There's laws in place to deal with this election. It's close enough that both sides have legitimate claims for victory. Democracy is functioning as designed.
December 5, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Courts have no jurisdiction. The Senate has the final authority whom to seat.
December 5, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's really both. Courts do have some jurisdiction when it comes to procedures, legal interpretations and various other questions, possibly even ruling on whether some votes would ultimately be counted.
But in the end, the Senate does have final jurisdiction, though for obvious reasons these elected politicians who have to work together on a daily basis don't want to have to exercise their authority. They'd prefer that they not have to do it.
December 5, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, no doubt. It's just not pretty to see it in the light of day.
December 5, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a way we should feel reassured about this whole recount. Yes, we're finding out the extent to which mistakes happen in the electoral system.
But we're also seeing officials in Minnesota looking for all those errors and correcting them through an orderly process.
December 5, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, they say that elections departments always pray for landslide results. It covers up their mistakes.
December 5, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
No it's not. See my post above. It's a close race and is going to take a long time to sort out. There's many facets to this thing. They are all being dealt with openly and transparently. The opposite of Floriday 2000 and Ohio 2004.
December 5, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truth is, you've got to give a lot of credit to the people in MN who are handling this thing. It may not be fast, and it may not be elegant, but they are going about it the right way and they'll get it right or as close to right as humanly possible. In the end there are going to be very few grounds for a lawsuit or Senate challenge, no matter how close it is.
The clowns in Florida should be embarrassed watching how it's supposed to be done.
December 5, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps I should clarify my remark. My concern was not about the process...compared to the nightmare in FL that we're all too familiar with, I agree that this seems far more in control.
My remark was intended to describe the whiplash I'm getting from the moment-by-moment details and the spin coming from both camps. I'm at the point where I might just start skipping all of the reports and just wait for the final tally.
December 5, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone got a coin?
December 5, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly (no pun intended), I'm with you on that. As much as I would like to see Franken seated, if the margin comes down to 4 votes (out of over 2 million cast), I don't have a whole lot of confidence that the final count really reflects the will of the people in Minnesota. It's just too close to know for sure. Rather than have either candidate seated under a cloud of uncertainty, just call "heads" and be done with it.
December 5, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
But why is a coin toss on top of the vote any more certain than the vote itself? If you're going to go with random chance, why not just stick with the randomness of tabluation errors and say the guy with the highest certified vote total is the winner? Why put one big random chance on top of a few small random chances?
December 5, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a horrible, horrible option. Just because a margin is razor thin is no reason to throw it out in favor of a coin flip.
We're always telling people that every vote counts. What kind of message would it send to leave the result up to chance? Why would anyone want to bother to vote after something like that?
December 5, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I lost a ward committeeperson race in 1974 by 4 votes.
But that was out of 950 votes cast in a Dem primary.
I would have settled for a coin flip...
2 years later, I left no doubt and won big.
December 5, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
December 5, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get back to me when the race is officially over and someone won.
December 5, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The race is officially over and someone won.
December 5, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess, all in all, I'd rather be up by 4 at this stage of the game, than behind. Imagine if Franken had been a seasoned campaigner, instead of a greenhorn? The race could have been positively decided in his favor by now.
December 5, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The closeness of this race for national office is almost without precedent. Whether its 4 votes, or 20 we are talking about a margins of hundred-thousandths of a percent between Franken and Quimby.
The recount process has been anything but a clusterf*** so far. It's been remarkably transparent. And the errors exposed so far (1 missing ballot envelope, 1 uncounted ballot envelope containing absentee ballots, some ballots stuck in a machine, a poll worker who forgot to include same day registrations in the total number of voters for his/her precinct) are surprisingly few when you consider that both the voting and the recount depend on civic minded volunteers. Like the margin itself the error rate seems to be within a few tens of thousandths of a percent. Not perfect but if humans are involved (as I hope we will continue to be) I doubt we can ever expect greater accuracy.
Regardless of who wins this thing, (Go Landslide Al!) I hope all the people complaining about how this vote/recount were run remember to volunteer their time in as an election judge or auditor come next election.
December 5, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm tempted to say more, but suffice to say:
CRAZY CLOSE!!!
-- Cris
My site: Obama Wallpaper Archive
December 5, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
When it's all over, I really hope that it's this close, in Franken's favor. Let Slimy Norman Quimby bear the bitterness forever after. Let his entire life be consumed by the narrowness of his defeat, a pain that never really quite heals.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving weasel.
December 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't win an election that big by four votes. It just isn't right. Even a hundred votes. That close, you should do it over.
December 5, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why not? Why not one vote? This is a democracy. Every vote counts. A victory is a victory whatever the margin.
December 5, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Talkingpoints is ignoriing the fact that both the AP and the Minn. Tribune just reported that at the end of today's recount, Coleman is ahead by 250. Just because Franken's camp is reporting is ahead, doesn't make it so. He hasn't been in the lead since the beginning of the recount. Doesn't look good for him.
December 5, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
That figure leaves out all the challenged ballots. Franken's figure is based on the election judge's initial opinions on the challenged ballots, therefore it's much closer to the actual result than the AP and Star-Trib totals.
The bottom line is that it's neck and neck and will come down to the verdict on those challenged ballots.
And don't forget the 1,000 or so rejected absentee ballots that are possibly in play because they were improperly rejected.
December 5, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's as close as things ever get. Comes down to
1. Whether they find the missing ballots and what happens if they dont. Both sides have good arguments if they don't find them
2. The canvassing board's decision on the disputed ballots. It's likely that an overwhelming percentage of the challenges will be rejected there will be some close calls and with an election this close, each decision is crucial
3. Whether the improperly rejected absentee ballots will be counted and, more importantly, how they fall. Since we know nothing about them, not even what counties they are from, is there any reason to believe they will favor Franken?
December 5, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
coin toss time but good thing we had that runoof in the georgia election. this country's election s suck, suck, suck
December 5, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink