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Franken Camp Claims He's Gaining On Coleman, But Big Challenges Remain

Does Al Franken have a chance of catching Norm Coleman in the recount? The Franken campaign is now claiming that he continues to close the gap with the GOP Senator -- down to 73 votes with 88.6% of ballots counted, using the campaign's methodology -- but the latest numbers suggest Franken's task is daunting.

Franken's lead recount attorney Marc Elias gave out the latest math on a conference call just now with reporters. The problem for Franken is that the remaining 11.4% of ballots would need to provide a swing much larger than the previous precincts have given him. An estimated 74,000 remaining ballots are from heavily-Dem areas of Hennepin County (Minneapolis), an urban center that might have a higher error rate in Franken's favor, but even then it looks tough.

That said, this is only one step of the recount -- and it gets trickier from here, thanks to the unpredictability of how the state canvassing board will resolve the thousands of challenged ballots. The campaign will also continue to hammer the issue of absentee votes that may have been wrongly rejected through clerical error, a figure they estimate to be as many as 1,000 wrongly-rejected votes.

Elias left open the option of contesting this issue, possibly all the way to the U.S. Senate itself: "One way or another, whether it's state courts or elsewhere, these ballots are going to be counted."


18 Comments

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Absolutely right.

EVERY BALLOT should be counted - unless it clearly violates the established protocols for inclusion or exclusion.

Good to finally see a Democrat with some moxie!

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In the 2001 debacle in Florida, even when the FL courts ruled that the counting should continue and be expanded, I knew that Gore was destined to lose, because the Republicans could be expected to challenge every adverse decision to the highest court, and if they lost in that venue, to challenge the result on the floor of the Congress, because the Constitution ultimately leaves it up to Congress to decide whether a state's electors should be seated, and you know the Bush campaign would have taken it to a congressional vote had they lost at the state and federal court levels, and no matter how ugly it looked, Bush would have won the election because a GOP congress would seat his electors in Florida. Partisan politics at its finest, and it was a certainty, even if Gore had won his case at SCOTUS.

I see no reason why Franken should view this any differently. Unless he is satisfied that all votes have been fairly counted, he should fight this to the last available venue, which is the Democratically controlled Senate which is vested with the ultimate decision on who it is going to seat. The Constitution mandates that a political body will make the final decision if the opposing parties don't resolve a dispute over who won without the need to involve that political body. If this goes to the Senate, and Franken has a legitimate argument that he should be declared winner, as you know he will if he takes it that fat (whether based on disqualified provisional ballots, interpretations of undervotes or overvotes, etc.), you know he will win if it voted upon in the Senate. The GOP would do no less, you can be assured, if the shoe were on the other foot.

So I applaud the Franken campaign for fighting. When this is over, what will not be remembered is who was the nicest guy of the two (even though Franken would win that easily) or if the winner took the race in a manner that goes over some imaginary line that pundits draw when the other guy looks like he might win a close race. No, the only thing anybody will remember is who won, who gets to be seated as the senator from MN, and who gets to vote for SCOTUS appointments, cloture votes, budgets. universal health care, and som many other things of vital importance to all of us. I hope Franken fights to the finish, yields nothing to Coleman, and wins however it needs to get done. No cheating, but no pussing out either.

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I agree with you that Franken should fight this all the way. He'd be a great senator. But as far as the Dems backing him the way the repubs would... These are the boys and girls who kept Lieberweenie as HS/GA chair. There's a reason why the Dems have a reputation of rolling over and playing dead while the repubs go for the jugular.

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Seconded. I really get the feeling that the Dem senators don't want an outspoken liberal like Franken rhetorically pissing in their Republican-lite punch bowl.

I'll bet my house that, if it comes down to a vote in the Senate, Coleman wins.

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Last week, with 82% of the recount completed, the Franken people were claiming that they were 84 votes down. Now, with 88% of the vote counted, they have narrowed the lead to 73 votes. Problem is that if they continue to gain at the same rate (11 votes for every six per cent recounted), they will gain another 22 votes and still lose by 51. So unless you believe more Franken challenges will be sustained than Coleman challenges (very unlikely given the 600 samples up on the Minnesota Star Tribune site - both sides seem to be making frivolous challenges ), then it gets down to the absentee ballots. Assuming there are 1000 improperly rejected absentee ballots (seems like a high number), Franken would have to win over 55% of those to win.

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Don't assume the samples on the MST website are representative. They're doing what papers do - trading objectivity for even-handedness. They'll pick a few on each side without regard for the actual numbers.

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But its not like they only posted a handful. They have posted 600 out of a total of of 6000. And in going through some of them, its clear that they didn't just post the sexy ones. Of these 600, almost all the challenges, certainly over 90%, are frivolous and I'm fairly confident this is true for the entire 6000.

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I can't think of any reason to simply suppose that the 599 ballots the MST posted are in any way representative of the 6000. Think about it. If they pulled out 400 random ballots and 300 of them were clear Franken votes, what do you think they'd do? They'd go get more until they had a roughly even number on each side. That's what papers do - they substitute even-handedness for objectivity.

Because of the large number of challenged ballots, even a small edge for Franken would be decisive. For example, if he prevailed on 40% of his challenges while Coleman prevailed on 30% of his, Franken would win - and that's without considering any help he might get from the rejected absentee ballots.

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Here's the problem. Based on independent observers, comments from each side and what has been posted, nobody expects that either side will prevail on more than 10% of their challenges and it will probably be more like 2 to 3%. There's no way in hell that 40% of either side's challenges will be upheld. There's no reason to believe that Franken's challenges are any more valid than Coleman's challenges - they both seem to have taken the advise of their attorneys and challenged everything they could, no matter how weak the argument. Unless Franken prevails on the rejected absentee ballot argument and unless a count of those ballots gives him a substantial advantage over Coleman, two very big ifs, then he is likely to lose.

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How come the Star Tribune has Coleman leading by over 200? Franken keeps sending out these press releases about the gap narrowing but hasn't produced any documentation to back it up.

It's not looking good for Franken.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune figures don't include the challenged ballots. Franken is saying that if you assume that all the challenges are overruled, he is only down by 73. No way of verifying that without looking at all 4000 challenges and seeing what would happen if the challenge is overruled but no reason to believe the Franken camp is lying. However, as I've pointed out below, even if their figures are accurate, they are very, very unlikely to make up the remaining 73 votes with the ballots yet to be recounted.

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I think Franken's chance is very slim...I am not buying any of his spin at all

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I blame the Daily KOS for the surfeit of bogus count press releases

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This may be a naive question but why don't they just do a revote?

GA is having one tomorrow. Why not MN?

Really, Franken vs Coleman. I know my mother (dem leaning independent (Obama)voter)) many more in MN may have given some more thought to voting for Barkley.

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This may be a naive question but why don't they just do a revote?

Because Georgia state law requires a runoff if no one gets 50% and Minnesota doesn’t.

It may be messy, but Minnesota is following its state law. They count all of the ballots, look for the voter’s intent, and then see who is ahead. That person is the winner.

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Re-votes do happen though when the vote is too close to be sure who won. I remember the NH Senate race in 1974. Recounts were done, but always a little different result and very close. The result? The US Senate (who has the final say) decided not to seat either candidate. After a SEVEN MONTH battle, the candidates agreed to have a re-vote.

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As a citizen of Georgia, I think it's pretty cool that we require a majority of votes to seat a Senator (and believe me, there is not much I think is cool about politics down here). We have a slim chance of winning. The last time there was a senate runoff ('92, I think), the one who took the plurality in the GE lost the runoff, so there is precedent. Sadly, it was the Dem who took the fall that time. Last time, the libertarian votes swung to the republican. The reason the Dem took the GE was because GA was still pretty dixiecrat. It's really going to depend on turnout.

The question this time is where will the libs swing. The libertarian party was against the Iraq war. They were also against the wall street bailout that Chambliss voted for (and which Martin has slyly railed against—though he would no doubt have voted for it if in office at the time). Right now, I am pondering the the thought of sending out a "neutral" get out the vote e-mail to my office mates. Most of them (close to 95%) are liberals, but they are also not tuned in. So, many of them may not even know about the runoff. The head of my dept. is an Obama guy (violating company policy with is bumper sticker), so I might get away with a slap on my wrist if I did this.

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I signed up and voted on about 350 of the ballots posted in their reader poll. In my sample (I presumed it was a random ordering from their 600), I found Franken ahead by 17. I actually looked at the PDFs and the reasons for the challenges on all but a handful of them. There was overreaching on both sides, for sure.

The most egregious, IMO -- and in my sample I saw these only in Coleman's challenges -- were clearly marked, ovals-filled-in, no-question-about-it votes for Franken, marked "voter intention rep", obviously because the other Republican candidates on the ballot had been marked. I counted five of those. As if a republican voter couldn't vote against Coleman!

There was one Coleman challenge of a Franken ballot that actually gave as the reason, "frivolous challenge."

It's hard to know how such a sample would project to the total. But these shenanigans should be worth challenging.

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