Could Newly Discovered Ballots Throw Recount To Franken?
As we noted below, there's been a potentially huge development in the Franken recount: 171 new ballots have been found in the St. Paul suburb of Maplewood, reportedly because a machine breakdown prevented them from being counted the first time but the hand count easily picked them up.
So is there any chance that this could change the outcome?
The answer, like pretty much everything else in this recount, is a definite maybe.
It's simply not conceivable that these ballots alone would deliver Franken the win -- he's not going to carry all of them, but would instead get a small edge. As the local site MinnPost.com calculates, these ballots could give Franken a net gain of 12 votes, assuming they break in the same percentages as the rest of the precinct did.
But the found ballots could give Franken a big lift. The Franken camp's current calculation is that he trails Norm Coleman by 50 votes in this recount as of last night. So if the MinnPost calculation is accurate, this would narrow Franken's deficit to a mere 38 votes -- a margin that could be much more plausibly reversed in the remaining 7% of the vote yet to be recounted.
Of course, there are a whole bunch of other variables still at play, so the net impact of the new found ballots is tough to predict. But in a race as close as this one, they could potentially prove to be decisive.
Late Update: The Coleman campaign is calling foul, claiming the total ballots for this precinct now exceed the number of voters who officially signed in by 31 people -- and they're also saying these new ballots would apparently give Franken a net pickup of 37 votes, though it's not exactly clear how they concluded this. The county is looking into the situation.















I'm not accusing anyone, but "newly discovered" ballots?
This thing doesn't smell good.
I'm glad this race hasn't attracted national attention and hope Franken is declared the winner just days before Christmas.
December 2, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently an optical scan machine broke down and the votes never got tallied on election day. Nothing too fishy, but at this point, the race is just too close and the recount too disorganized to know who ever really won.
December 2, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just as in FL 2000. The margin of victory is smaller than the margin of error.
December 2, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, and like someone in the other thread says, at this point whoever wins will have the stink of illegitimacy.
December 2, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'd be surprised at how often this kind of stuff happens. Remember, the election judges do this only once every other year, and many of them are rookies. It's a pretty disorganized process. It usually amounts to small potatoes, and effects only the tightest elections, but it happens a lot.
December 2, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an inside observer for Obama at a polling location in Ohio on election day, I will vouch for the accuracy of your statement.
December 2, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an outside observer during primary early voting, the primary and the general in NC, ditto and ditto.
December 2, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
This feels like something that would happen here in Chicago. Isn't Minnesota Nice supposed to prevent stuff like this?
December 2, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I went to college in Wisconsin, I was told by a friend from Minnesota that "Minnesota Nice" is an in-joke — that it actually means being passive-aggressive underneath an exterior of friendliness.
December 2, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's true. It's sort of like the southern habit where you can call someone a scum-sucking bastage, but then make it OK by adding "bless your heart."
December 2, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
What're you, some kinda damnyankeee? It's "bless his/her heart". It's never done to a person's face. Wah, that would juhst be plain rude. Always in the third person, behind the blessed person's back.
December 2, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was born in Wisconsin and went to school in Minnesota. The 'niceness' of people there is very real and very much a part of the culture.
It still amazes me when I am back visiting how polite and helpful people are everywhere up there. I live in LA now and the contrast is striking.
I read a survey on volunteerism a few months ago that ranked US cities on the rate of volunteer activity by average citizens. The #1 metro area for giving your free time over to strangers in need was Minneapolis/St.Paul. The last metro area on the list was LasVegas.
You do the math!
December 2, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Thirty Seven vote swing gets this race down to 13 votes. Damn, it sounds like a movie. Maybe we could hire Kevin Costner to play the deciding vote.
December 2, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I were Mark Ritchie, I would hate life.
December 2, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
No Kidding.
MN Public Radio just reported that Franken gained a net of 37 Votes over Coleman on the missing 171, and that Coleman's Lawyer just reported that he won't challenge them as long as the number of voters that signed in in that precinct jives with the new total of ballots.
December 2, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
(A) The ballots were not "newly discovered", but had mistakenly not been recounted after a machine failure.
(B) The 31-ballot discrepancy in a different precinct has now been reconciled: apparently, the absentee ballots had not been recorded on the register. After this was done, the ballots counted matched the number of voters.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35382149.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs
December 2, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome. Go Big Al!
December 2, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Startribune.com confirms gain of 37 for Franken. They also confirm that the voter rolls tally up once they entered the data for absentee ballots counted.
December 2, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got that silly "Obama lost by one vote because (fill in the blank) %^$#%#$%$^ didn't vote" video a bunch of times before the election. I giggled and passed it on to someone else.
I am beginning to believe they can do a real one for this election. I think the final margin will be single digits. And, it's 50-50 it ends up in the Senate.
This just gets crazier and crazier.
December 2, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well this actually could come down to less than a dozen votes either way.
Those disputed ballots and registrations will be where the final battle will be waged.
Clerical errors disenfranchising voters will be interesting. Things will either increase with tension and implications after tonight with the GA vote.
If GA swings Democratic the entire GOP GOONNIE LOONIE LEGAL SMEAR SQUAD will deluge on nice Minnesota making all sorts of mischief.
December 2, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink