Chambliss Wins Georgia Senate Runoff For The Republicans
GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss has defeated Democratic opponent Jim Martin in the Georgia Senate runoff, officially ending any lofty dreams the Democrats may have had of reaching 60 Senate seats in this one cycle.
With 79% of precincts reporting, Chambliss has a lead of 60%-40%, wider than any of the polls had predicted in what is a very low-turnout contest. A lot of the remaining votes are from Dem strongholds and could possibly narrow the margin, but it won't have too much of an effect.
Republicans put everything they had into this race hoping to salvage some shred of a victory in the wake of the disaster they went through a month ago, and of course to keep the Dems away from the 60-seat mark. National Democrats were only half-involved, with DSCC staffers traveling here, the committee itself running a lot of attack ads, plus visits by Bill Clinton and Al Gore. But Martin was never able to get the boost he really wanted: A visit by Barack Obama, who might have energized black voters and other members of the Democratic base to come out for the runoff in this red state.
Saxby is perhaps the filthiest MoFo and electing him twice says a lot more about GA than one would admit.
December 2, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which is why, when people inquire as to where I'm from, I always reply "I'm FROM Texas, but I LIVE in Georgia".
December 2, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Eric, it was all Obama's fault that Martin got his ass kicked. Get a life.
But for Obama, this race would have been so over on 4th.
December 2, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Eric, I have to agree with amk, here: I doubt Obama could have made enough of a difference to tilt the election in Martin's favor. In addition, the press would've turned it into a referendum on Obama and I don't think he needs to risk that right now.
Don't get me wrong....I would've loved for Martin to win, but knowing this state, if Martin couldn't get it done on Nov. 4th, it wasn't going to get done. This is still a die-hard, conservatism-as-religon state. Blech!
December 2, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really don't think that is what Eric was saying. Nate Silver points out the apparent margin goes to justify Obama's steering clear. I'm guessing Eric agrees.
The Dems do need seriously to assess this if the final margin is the 18 points at which it now stands. What they will find is that this is Obama's party in a big, big way.
For the record: even if it were winnable, the last thing Obama needed with a task on his hands like directing a presidential transition in the midst of the serious problems the country faces right now was to be ensconced in an at-best-uphill political battle in unfriendly territory that would have taken a good bit of the post-election bipartisan gloss off of his unity transition strategy.
December 2, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has done more than his share of campaigning over the past two years. He finished his race and is now going about the difficult business of putting together a government to rescue the US from the ravages of Bush/Cheney.
Martin needs to take responsibility for his campaign and his loss. Good effort, but fell short.
The 60-vote margin is overblown. Barack can govern with the Senate he will have because not all the Republicans will scurry to the far right.
December 3, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Martin lost because many of the voters in Georgia are morons. Don't chide Eric.
December 2, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
...yep, just a bunch of dumb rednecks...
December 3, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
What other reasonable explanation is there for electing a man who would openly slander a triple-amputee veteran as being friendly with Bin Laden and Saddam?
What other reasonable explanation is there for re-electing a man who openly slandered a father whose child was abducted as being soft on crime against kids?
It's a harsh thing to say about Georgia, but I sure wouldn't go driving through the state at night. This year's election results reinforce that.
December 3, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I prefer to have 58 dem votes in the Senate. It will make the repubs share responsibility in inacting the Obama platform. I think that when they filibuster any bill we can pummel them online. It will give the 2010 mid term election information to increase the dem control. I think that the GOP has not learned that Americans want change and bipartisanship leadership and another election cycle will be ours.
December 2, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting. That is what Joe Scarborough said on Morning Joe. He said counterintuitively the last thing that Obama wants is a supermajority of 60 in the Senate because everything that he does would just be blamed on the Democrats in charge thus making Dem seats A LOT more vunerable in 2010.
Now Obama will need at least 2 Republicans to pass legislation which he said won't be as hard as it looks (get the Maine Senators and/or McCain, etc).
December 2, 2008 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, actually MAKE them follow through and have a filibuster. All the GOP has to do these days is announce it, they don't even have to talk for 30 seconds - let alone 30 hours. If they do it, make them do it.
December 3, 2008 2:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ambinder is reporting that Jeb Bush is looking to run for the Florida Senate in 2010 - http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/12/jeb_bush_ponders_florida_senat.php
You know he's already planning a 2016 run (he'd be 63 years old). He's too smart to even consider 2012, that's the sucker candidates. Hillary didn't run in 2004 afterall...
December 2, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
2016 for President? A third Bush? Do they think a third time is the charm? This dynasty crap is a little disturbing.
December 2, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is Nate talking about. This was an incumbent Southern seat in a Republican state so there should never have been a run-off in the first place but there was because the Republicans are so weak. No one cared about Jim Martin. Now if this run-off was in a state that Obama had won on November 4th than that would have been another thing. Obama knew that this Senate seat was a long shot.
I am with Chuck Todd on this one. The Democrats should have run Max Cleland for that seat. He would have won on November 4th and there would not have been a run-off.
December 2, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree. Cleland would have been a sure winner on Nov 4th.
December 2, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't harsh on the Jim Martin. He's a good man. Saxby Chambliss? Bad man.
December 3, 2008 3:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can only hope that this run-off makes Saxby Chambliss a sort of folk hero for the far right-wing of the Republican, and that he becomes a contender for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2012 because of it.
That would be the best thing to come from this.
December 2, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to understand how the factors in play in GA led to this result. How much effect from Palin, the smear attack ads, just plain money, no Obama coat tails for Martin, GOTV efforts done well by Repos and not so well by Demos, etc?
December 3, 2008 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's fuckin' Georgia what do people expect. One of the few places left in which it is difficult for Democrats to win is the deep South. Remmember the Southern strategy? The old South is very difficult. Obama didn't win this state on November 4th. Why would anybody expect that a Democrat would win against an incumbent Republican Senator? Now if this run-off was in a blue state or even a purple state than that would be another thing.
December 3, 2008 5:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uh...hello...Sonny Perdue is the first Republican Governor of the state since the civil war. Republicans controlled the State house, Lt Governor and legislature for the first time in 2007. It's a stronghold for sure, but certainly not since the begining of time...
December 3, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
What interests me are things like
How much dent did the Martin GOTV effort put into the final results?
I've heard that Obama gave Martin about a 12% boost on Nov. 4, is that really all this comes down to?
What if any effect did Chambliss smear tactics have in this run-off election?
December 4, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you please give some love to the thousands of Obama organizers who flooded the state? There were hundreds of former paid staffers who came down to Georgia on their own dime simply to knock doors, as there weren't enough local vols to do much. Who cares about the DSCC? There were Obama staffers from pretty much every office in the country here, and while we may have lost brilliantly, it isn't to be ignored.
December 3, 2008 3:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think this will hurt Obama that much if at all. He seems to be connecting with Republicans very well so far.
I think it's terrific George Bush is on the ropes with 50 days left. I'm not certain as to what the outcome is going to be in his administration. Impeachment? Resignation? One or the other.
December 3, 2008 4:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
The MSM is breathlessly portraying the GA non-race as a "crucial" GOP victory, so I'm very fucking glad Obama stayed the hell away from it. It sucks enough that GA sends an asshole like Chambliss to represent them in the Senate, but I don't want him riding back in as "The Man Who Faced Down Obama."
Minnesota is the one that's gonna hurt. I'm not even gonna get started...
December 3, 2008 7:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would have been STUPID as hell and inappropriate for Obama to campaign there. He is trying to unite the country and lead in a post-political manner. He can't do that if he is getting into a partisan slugfest in Georgia. Not to mention, it would look even worse because his task right now is to start fixing the economy. He is a bit busy, I'm not sure if you've noticed.
So really, enough with the "why didn't Obama show up" crap, it is obvious why. And Obama showing up wouldn't have made the difference, it would have only increased the media spotlight on this GOP victory, and the spin would have backfired on the Democrats.
I laid out the reasons Obama shouldn't go to Georgia weeks ago:
http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/11/democrats-unleash-their-b-squad-in.html
December 3, 2008 7:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chambliss's winning a runoff in Georgia clearly shows that the Republicans have taken the momentum back, and they are clearly in control again.
We might as well start calling Obama a lame duck now.
December 3, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
snark!
December 3, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
They still shoot lame horses....when does the season open on lame ducks? If they can fly o.k. does it matter if they are lame? Perhaps only if they intend to land. Maybe that is how they became lame...flying too high to make a safe landing. Can you tell a lame duck when it is flying high? Probably not...I expect that's how they get elected!
December 3, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The numbers in GA were never going to be kind to Martin. In a heavily Republican state, Chambliss beat Martin by a considerable number in the November election, but due to the pull of votes from him by a solid Libertarian candidate, he couldn't achieve the majority figure needed to avoid a runoff race. Absent the pull of the presidential race, turnout plummeted and Martin went down to a heavy, if long expected loss. It's just a shame that a man who owes his Senate career to the vilest of campaign tactics had to win this race and keep his seat. While this is a symbolic loss for the Democratic majority, they are still close enough to the 60 figure to likely avoid a filibuster attempt.
December 3, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jim Martin technically lost on Nov. 4th and was destined to lose the runoff. Let's be honest, Saxby ain't shit, but his argument that Dems would get full control is a more effective message. Dems still have the majority, but still. If the situation was reversed, Jim Martin would have used the same message.
December 3, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm very sad that Saxby Chambliss won again, but this was a foregone conclusion from the beginning. As for getting the magic 60 number, this isn't 1993--there are six reasonable Republicans who will vote for reasonable bills. 59 would be a very good number in my opinion. Any Democratic Domestic bill that can't get Susan Collins' vote and any foreign bill that can't get Chuck Hagel's vote is probably not worth passing for the public outrage.
I can't google the quote, but Karl Rove said in 2001 or 2003 that he preferred to pass bills that wouldn't get a single Democratic vote. We are not the W GOP--we want to pass bills that are accomplishing things for all Americans across the country. The kind of things Barack Obama wants to do have wide benefits and are bound to get more than two Republican cloture votes.
December 3, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink