The Franken campaign unveiled earlier today their final estimate of where this recount will end up, now that the state canvassing board has finished ruling on over a thousand disputed ballots: They believe they are ahead by 35-50 votes.

The official number from the state is not public at the moment because they are still actually processing it. Both campaigns lodged thousands of challenges during the recount, taking those votes out of the count until such time as they would be adjudicated by the board or the challenges withdrawn. Now with the board done, the withdrawn challenges will finally be fed back into the count.

The Star-Tribune's analysis of the challenged ballots currently has Franken winning by 78 votes once they're all processed, actually somewhat higher than the Franken camp thinks. With any luck, we could know the truth as soon as Monday.

Bear in mind, however, that this will hardly be the end of it -- there is still a whole lot of legal wrangling over the wrongly-rejected absentee ballots, plus the Coleman campaign's claim that some other absentees were actually counted twice. But whoever is ahead after this leg of the process will be very, very likely to win when it's all over.

Obama: We Will Make America The World Leader In Science Again
In his newest Presidential YouTube Address, Barack Obama announced four appointees key posts on science and technology -- and said he would work to restore America's role as the world's leader in science:

"Because the truth is that promoting science isn't just about providing resources--it's about protecting free and open inquiry," Obama says, in a barely-veiled hit at the Bush Administration. "It's about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It's about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it's inconvenient--especially when it's inconvenient."

The Obamas Go To Hawaii
Barack Obama and his family have gone off to Hawaii, to spend the holidays with his family and friends there. The Obama transition team says he will continue to do transition work during this time.

Biden: Jill Will Still Be Working
In an interview with George Stephanopoulos, Joe Biden said that his wife Jill will still maintain her career as a community college professor, probably on a part-time basis. "But, look, I think it's very important she have and maintain her own life, her own identity," said Biden. "And she'll be a very active second lady."

NYT: Cuomo Frustrated By Kennedy
The New York Times reports that New York Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo has become increasingly frustrated at how Caroline Kennedy has overshadowed him in her bid for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, after he'd made a deliberate decision to not overtly campaign for it. "It's driving him crazy," a Cuomo friend told the Times. "He's boxed in. He can't do anything except fume, and he is fuming."

Ferraro Comes Out Against Caroline Kennedy For Senate
The New York Post reports that Geraldine Ferraro has sent a letter to New York Gov. David Paterson, urging him to not appoint Caroline Kennedy to the Senate. Ferraro told the Post: "If you send someone down there who doesn't know the legislative process, they'll get chewed up alive."

Minnesota Senate Seat's Office Could End Up Closing Temporarily
Roll Call reports that if the Minnesota Senate race is not settled by January 6, the constituent services component of Norm Coleman's office may have to simply shut down: "Senate officials keep an office running when a Member dies or resigns by taking calls from constituents and performing some of the nonvoting tasks of a Member. But there's no such procedure for when a contested election keeps a Senator from taking the seat when Congress reconvenes."

In a frank and private memo sent today to Republican National Commitee members, the RNC chairman acknowledges that the GOP has grown too addicted to ideology, places politics before policy, and is bereft of ideas -- and that it's imperative that the party shift towards a genuine effort to develop concrete policy solutions to people's problems in order to rescue itself.

The memo, which we obtained from a Republican operative, was written by RNC chief Mike Duncan to explain the RNC's decision -- first reported by Politico -- to create a new in-house think tank called the "Center for Republican Renewal," which is devoted to coming up with new policies and ideas to chart a new direction for the party after November's devastating losses.

The memo -- which reflects just how deep a hole the party finds itself in -- also reveals some concrete details about the new think tank, including the appointment of Steven Duffield, the executive director of the GOP's 2008 Platform Committee, as the organization's new chief.

"Republicans have grown accustomed to having our party recognized as the `Party of Ideas,' but we must acknowledge that many Americans today believe the party is stale and does not deserve that label," reads one of the memo's starker assessments, adding that "we have not used our principles to provide solutions to the kitchen table concerns of middle-class America."

"We must recognize that being the `Party of Ideas' requires daily effort to apply principles to the particular public policy questions of the day," the memo says. "All Republicans have an obligation to develop principled solutions rather than falling back on ideology alone; we must show how our ideology can be applied to solve problems."

The assessment by Duncan, who's running for re-election as RNC chair, is a more straightforward acknowledgment of the party's deeply-rooted problems than we've heard from many of his opponents in the race. One GOP strategist opines to us that Duncan's willingness to speak frankly about such problems, and his creation of the center, could appeal to committee members who will select the next chairman.

The memo also says that the Renewal think tank is creating a "Board of Advisers" that will include former GOP cabinet secretaries, current and former high-level state and federal office-holders, and other Republican leaders. Full memo after the jump.

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The Minnesota state canvassing board has finished its review of challenged ballots today, and we can now say this: When all the dust settles, comedian and progressive activist Al Franken is very likely to become a United States Senator from Minnesota, unless it is somehow reversed in court.

Franken went in this week officially down by 188 votes, but with thousands of ballots being kept out of the count by challenges from both campaigns. With over a thousand of those disputed ballots now counted, we have a much clearer picture: Franken is almost certainly ahead right now, by roughly 75 votes -- and barring any court reversals, he will be the next senator from Minnesota.

With such a slim margin separating Franken from GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, it's not completely impossible that the outcome could be reversed. But the two campaigns have been battling vote by vote for more than a month, and the remaining window of opportunity to pick up additional votes has narrowed considerably.

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Here is an astoundingly funny blooper from today's Minnesota state canvass board meeting: The Coleman campaign tried out an interesting maneuver on ballot challenges in an attempt to regain some lost ground against Al Franken -- and then they only ended up losing more ground.

As we reported on Tuesday, the Coleman campaign asked to be able to reinstate some of the ballot challenges that they'd previously withdrawn before these meetings had begun. Basically, they wanted to use the benefit of now knowing what the board members' standards and precedents were on figuring out how to count the disputed ballots, and then apply that knowledge to some challenges they'd previously thought wouldn't work.

Well, we just went through a round of that, and the Coleman campaign successfully deprived Al Franken of...one vote. Then it was the Franken camp's turn, getting to try out the same thing -- and they were able to net four votes. And it was all the Coleman camp's idea!

This whole exercise isn't done yet, as the Coleman campaign is going to be coming back for another round of this. But it wasn't a good start.

Glenn Greenwald has an interesting post about the Rick Warren mess, which he uses as a jumping off point to argue that Barack Obama's "new" politics isn't really new at all.

Greenwald's basic point is that Obama's efforts to placate the right by picking Warren -- and the effort to get the left to scream that pundits have claimed was behind the decision -- isn't really different from the bait-the-left politics that Democrats have practiced for decades now. And they simply haven't worked.

As proof, he points out that Bill Clinton all but perfected the art of baiting the left and throwing cultural bones to the right, and all he got to show for it from Republicans was "hatred so undiluted that it led to endless investigations" and "accusations whose ugliness was boundless."

That's true. But there is an important way that Obama's politics is new, and the landscape is different from 1992 in key ways that give him an opening to use his own brand of politics to disarm the right and potentially clear the way for big progressive achievements.

Warning: I'm making this case at some length.

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The Coleman campaign is throwing yet another legal hurdle into Al Franken's path, in an attempt to alter the fundamental recount math that has been looking better and better for Franken.

The Coleman camp is going to the state Supreme Court again, this time pursuing another issue that they've been hammering: That an unknown number of absentee ballots appear to have been double-counted in the course of the manual recount. They've alleged about 150 incidents for Franken ballots so far, while the Franken camp hasn't gone after the issue on Coleman votes.

The Coleman campaign's proposed remedy is to go back to the Election Night totals in precincts that can't reconcile differences in vote numbers. This has an interesting potential ramification: It would essentially wipe out any gains Franken has made not only from apparent double-counting, but from any other disputed ballots that may have come from those precincts.

Late Update: The state Supremes have agreed to hear the case on Tuesday. There's never a dull moment around here.

Hmm -- seems like Rick Warren, who's set to deliver the invocation at Obama's inauguration, has said stuff that could prove offensive to yet another group: Jews.

John Aravosis has discovered some interesting quotes from Warren from 2006, talking about how he'd visited Syria and found it to be a place of moderation and religious tolerance -- including tolerance towards Jews, who in reality are barred from government jobs and who are singled out for special identification and discrimination in other ways.

Here's what Warren said:

"The Syrian government has long had a bad reputation in America, but if one considers a positive action like welcoming in thousands of Christian refugees from Iraq, or the protection of freedom to worship for Christians and Jews in Syria, it should not be ignored."

Aravosis reads it as Warren praising an "Israel-hating terror state as a `moderate country' that treats its Jews great." Of course, it's quite possible that Warren is merely ignorant of the plight of Syrian Jews, and actually believed the wonderful things about itself that the government there told him. Either way, it seems questionable.

Barack Obama, in a new statement, throws his support to the big $17.4 billion bailout of the auto industry announced today and offers a stern warning to the effect that the auto companies better get serious about reforming their business practices:

"Today's actions are a necessary step to help avoid a collapse in our auto industry that would have devastating consequences for our economy and our workers. With the short-term assistance provided by this package, the auto companies must bring all their stakeholders together -- including labor, dealers, creditors and suppliers -- to make the hard choices necessary to achieve long-term viability. The auto companies must not squander this chance to reform bad management practices and begin the long-term restructuring that is absolutely required to save this critical industry and the millions of American jobs that depend on it."

Once Obama becomes President, he'll have a big stick to brandish in order to compel the companies to reform (though it remains to be seen whether "reform" will be enough to save the companies). The deal calls for the loans to be called back if the firms aren't viable by March 31, 2009 -- a decision that would probably be made by Obama's Treasury Secretary. Also, this is only a temporary fix and further action will be required from the Obama administration, among others.

This is big: For the very first time in the Minnesota recount, Al Franken has taken the lead in the running vote count from Minneapolis Star-Tribune. As of 10:18 a.m. ET, Franken now leads by four votes.

This is big news, and it couldn't have happened at a better time for Al, with the state canvassing board is just now winding down the process of sorting through all the challenged ballots. So he's not just pulling ahead, but it's happening at a point very close to the finish line.

Now, there are any number of variables left. For all we know, Norm Coleman's challenges could suddenly begin to be meritorious, getting himself some new votes and throwing out ballots that might have gone to Al. But it doesn't seem too likely, because almost all of his challenges so far have have been frivolous attempts to throw out votes for Al, which the board has been easily dispensing with.

The Star Tribune's running analysis of how the remaining challenges could work out -- a number that has been fluctuating all over the place, so take it for what it's worth -- predicts that Franken will be ahead by 89 votes once all the challenges are resolved. A whole host of legal issues would remain afterward, but the winner at the end of the day today is nearly certain to be the Senator-Elect once it's all over. So things are looking good for Franken.

Late Update: As of 10:50 a.m. ET, Franken is ahead by 44 votes, with the Strib's analysis currently predicting a final Franken lead of 83 votes.

Late Late Update: As of 3 p.m. ET, Franken now has a nominal lead of 283 votes, but this does not take into account the allocation of many challenged ballots that have been withdrawn -- and Franken has more of those that haven't made their way through the system. The Strib's current analysis is that Franken's true lead is 73 votes.

One of the lesser-noted reasons that labor is so thrilled with Obama's choice of Rep. Hilda Solis as labor secretary is that she has a strong record on environmental issues, too:

Most recently, Solis sought direct federal funding and other incentives to create more so-called green jobs in the renewable energy sector. An environmental advocate with strong support from groups like the Sierra Club, she helped author legislation the House passed last year to bolster job training programs in the field, like teaching workers how to install solar panels or retrofit buildings to be more energy efficient.

She also served on the speaker's select committee to address global warming and has co-sponsored legislation to limit carbon emissions across the board.

One thing that Obama's cabinet picks, this one included, show is the degree to which this administration sees the need to address the big issues -- the environment, the economy, the plight of working people, health care -- as intertwined and interlocking.

Today: Big Canvass Board Meeting In Minnesota
The Minnesota state canvass board is meeting again today, at which they could end up finishing the review Norm Coleman's ballot challenges -- with Al Franken seemingly poised to take the lead for the first time in the never-ending Senate recount. But this wouldn't necessarily end the race, as there still remains a whole lot of legal wrangling left over those rejected absentee ballots.

Obama Holding Presser, Announcing Final Cabinet Picks
Barack Obama is holding a 2:15 p.m. ET press conference in Washington, at which he's expected to roll out his final cabinet choices. The appointees to be announced include retiring Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL) as Secretary of Transportation and Rep. Hilda Solis (D-CA) as Secretary of Labor, plus former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D) as Trade Representative.

Rick Warren Thanks Obama For Taking Heat From The Dem Base
Rick Warren has put out a statement praising Barack Obama for selecting him to deliver the invocation at the inauguration, and courting controversy in the process. "I commend President-elect Obama for his courage to willingly take enormous heat from his base by inviting someone like me, with whom he doesn't agree on every issue, to offer the Invocation at his historic Inaugural ceremony," Warren says. "Hopefully individuals passionately expressing opinions from the left and the right will recognize that both of us have shown a commitment to model civility in America."

Solis, Kirk Disagree On Trade
The New York Times points out that two of today's Obama picks, Hilda Solis and Ron Kirk, have contrary views on trade. Solis has opposed the Central American Free Trade Agreement and the Colombian trade deal, while business groups have already praised Kirk for his advocacy for free trade.

WaPo Looks At Foreign Money On Bill Clinton's Donor List
The Washington Post has dug through the newly-released donor list for Bill Clinton's foundation, finding a whole lot of money coming from foreign governments and state-sponsored enterprises, including $10-$25 million from Saudi Arabia. The Obama transition team says any potential conflicts of interest for Hillary Clinton have been dealt with through the disclosure, combined with a wide-ranging set of new concessions by Bill on donations that he'll be receiving from now on.

Caroline Kennedy Has Missed Some Elections
The New York Post reports that Caroline Kennedy has had a less than perfect record of voting, having missed the New York City mayoral primaries in 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2005, plus the 2002 general election. On the other hand, she has made it out for most general elections -- and besides, this isn't Australia, so she won't have to pay any fines.

Pawlenty Looking At Possible Interim Senate Appointment
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is looking into the possibility that he might have to appoint an interim Senator if the recount drags on after Jan. 6, when the new Senators are supposed to be sworn in. Buckle up, folks -- we might be in for a very long ride.

Looking back over today's meeting of the Minnesota state canvassing board, it's become painfully clear that Norm Coleman's big problem is that his ballot challenges are made up almost entirely of brazenly frivolous attempts to get votes for Al Franken thrown out. During the recount proper, that puffed up his apparent lead.

But now we're at the point where all those challenges are resolved -- in other words, he can't hide behind these tricks anymore. To be fair, Franken had his share of hopeless tries to toss Coleman votes, but it was nowhere near this bad.

This one might just be the worst of all. The Coleman campaign tried to get a vote for Franken thrown out because the voter had written on the ballot. What'd they write?

Thank you for counting my vote!

Is there anything more that needs to be said?

Here's the Franken campaign's response to today's state Supreme Court ruling on the issue of wrongly-rejected absentee ballots, presenting a different interpretation from what we had earlier. They say the court did go their way on a very key point -- that improperly-rejected absentee ballots should in some way be counted:

SAINT PAUL [12/18/08] - Franken lead attorney Marc Elias:

"Today, the Supreme Court joined the ranks of the state's top elections official, the state's top law enforcement officer, and the state canvassing board in acknowledging that Minnesotans were wrongly disenfranchised by the improper rejection of their absentee ballots, and that those ballots must be included in the count.

"We are pleased that the Supreme Court has rejected Norm Coleman's attempt to win re-election by throwing out the lawful votes of Minnesotans who did everything right. And we are pleased that these votes will be counted.

"In its order, the Court laid out a process by which those votes will be counted. We have said all along that what matters is not the manner in which the franchise is restored to these voters - whether it be at the county canvassing board level, at the state canvassing board level, in a district or state court, or in the U.S. Senate - but rather the result: an election in which every lawful vote is counted.

"Therefore, we look forward to initiating this process as soon as possible. This is not a hypothetical matter. We have identified over 150 individual voters whose absentee ballots were improperly rejected, and we are prepared to produce affidavits and other supporting documentation to prove it. And counties across the state have identified hundreds, perhaps thousands, of other voters whose ballots weren't rejected for any legal reason.

"Now it is up to the Coleman campaign to drop its longstanding contention that these ballots should be thrown out and work with us as the Court has ordered to ensure that every lawful vote is counted."

In theory, the majority opinion did a lot of good for Franken by requiring some kind of process to count votes. But in practice, this could turn out to net very few new votes for the reason that they required the consent of both campaigns to any such votes being counted. And that means the Coleman campaign, which vociferously opposes counting these votes at all, will have veto power over any single vote getting counted.

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A divided Minnesota Supreme Court has now ruled on Norm Coleman's lawsuit to stop the counting of absentee ballots that are found to have been rejected through clerical errors: The court appears to have mostly ruled for Coleman, but with some very important strings attached.

The court has ruled that counties can't decide on their own to review ballots. Instead, they've ordered the two campaigns and the various local election offices to get together and agree on identifying absentee ballots that were rejected improperly, and then to have them counted. In theory, the Coleman campaign could agree to nothing on any ballots -- getting nothing counted -- but the court threatened sanctions against either party if they act in bad faith. So we'll see how that works out.

What effect does this have on Franken's chances of winning? Not much, in that the current running vote count projecting a Franken win has as one of its basic assumptions that none of these votes would get counted, anyway. But it can be seen as a provisional win for Coleman in the sense that Franken's chances would have gone from likely to near-certain if the court had gone his way.

And one other thing: The court has set up this process of vote-reviewing to end on December 31 -- meaning this race will absolutely not end until at least the first week of 2009, right when Senators are sworn in, as the final paperwork is reviewed on whatever changes happen because of this.

Late Update: The Franken campaign has their own take on the opinion, claiming a big victory in terms of how the court didn't go for Coleman.

Looks like Obama's cabinet will get a southerner after all, albeit perhaps not the sort some people were looking for.

Obama has chosen Ron Kirk, who was the first black mayor of Dallas, as his trade representative, a senior Democrat tells us, confirming multiple reports today.

The choice of Kirk came after Obama's first choice, Rep. Xavier Becerra, pulled out. Becerra had cheered some on the left because of his trade record -- he confessed he regretted his vote for NAFTA, and subsequently voted against CAFTA, among other things.

As for Kirk, business leaders like his record of supporting free trade, and labor leaders seem wary. But with the stimulus package front and center, trade policy seems unlikely to be a top priority, and labor leaders have already been given a big gift in the form of new labor secretary nominee Hilda Solis.

Okay, so now Obama has enlisted a southerner, which may quiet the chatter about that. But still -- it's absolutely outrageous that Obama's cabinet doesn't contain a single white southerner.

Late Update: Norm Coleman's apparent lead has been cut to a mere five votes at the close of business today, according to the running vote count from the Star Tribune, down from a 358-vote lead last night. Al Franken seems poised to take the lead tomorrow as the state canvassing board sorts through the remaining hundreds of ballot challenges from the Coleman campaign, which have been mostly frivolous attempts to throw out Franken votes.

Don't look now, but it looks like Al Franken may win the Minnesota Senate race.

A series of developments in the last few days have given the very strong impression that Al is suddenly in a position to prevail -- and a resolution of the fight might even come as early as tomorrow.

For those of you who haven't been playing close attention to every twist and turn in the recount fight, let's take stock of where we are, a month and a half into this epic struggle of vote-counting and legal battles that has seen the conventional wisdom swing dramatically from one side to the other.

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Obama's choice of California Rep. Hilda Solis as labor secretary, which was confirmed to us by a Democratic official, is thrilling labor officials, and more than compensates for unease about Obama's economic picks and his initial delay in picking someone for the key labor post.

"It's extraordinary," SEIU president Andy Stern said in an interview with us a few moments ago. "On every issue that's important to us, she has stood up for an America where everyone's hard work is valued and rewarded."

Some labor officials had initially thought that an elder statesman type with stature would be best in the gig. But Stern said he thinks the choice of Solis by Obama, who has a keen appreciation of the power of biography, wanted someone with a bio steeped in labor, someone who has the kind of built in dedication and passion that could make her a kind of labor star in a cabinet that is stocked with a fair amount of star power already.

"As opposed to some candidate [for whom] this would have been just a job, for Hilda Solis it's the fulfillment of a life-long dream," Stern said, adding that that Solis was one of the names that labor officials had privately communicated as acceptable to them in talks with the transition. "Her father was a teamster. She is the American dream."

Although there's a proud tradition of interest groups rushing to praise officials once they're appointed, Stern outdid that with some truly extraordinary praise: "She probably will be the labor secretary that has been on more picket lines and rallied more in support of workers rights than potentially anyone in American history." Stern added that she'd been on the forefront of battles on behalf of farm workers and hiking the minimum wage.

Meanwhile, the pro-union group American Rights at Work sends over statements from two of its top officials, both of whom were also in the running. Former Rep. David Bonior hailed her as "a terrific leader who I know first hand will work tirelessly on behalf of America's working families."

And Mary Beth Maxwell, the openly gay labor official who was a dark horse pick of many progressives, as well as of Bonior, said she was a "great choice" who would "champion common sense policies."

Incidentally, Stern said that the person who knows Solis perhaps best is writer Harold Meyerson, and as it happens, Meyerson has already weighed in with his take right here.

The Associated Press says it knows who Obama has picked as labor secretary:

A labor official says Rep. Hilda Solis of California will be nominated as labor secretary by President-elect Barack Obama.

The Democratic congresswoman was just elected to her fifth term representing heavily Hispanic portions of eastern Los Angeles County and east L.A. She is the daughter of Mexican and Nicaraguan immigrants and has been the only member of Congress of Central American descent.

The pick, which adds another Hispanic to Obama's cabinet, will come as a bit of a blow to some progressives who had rallied behind the dark horse pick of openly gay labor activist Mary Beth Maxwell. She was being aggressively pushed by former Rep. David Bonior, who was also considered a likely choice.

Bonior said he'd take it if asked by Obama but also said it was time to pass power to a younger generation of labor leaders. Some thought Maxwell was a possibility because it would double as a gift to gays and lesbians, who'd rallied behind her candidacy.

It's still unclear why it took so long to pick a labor secretary, something that worried labor leaders who were already somewhat concerned about Obama's economic team, but by and large, labor officials say publicly and privately that they are very confident that they'll get what they want from this presidency.

Late Update: A Democratic official confirms to us that Solis is indeed Obama's official pick for the post.

Here's a statement on just how absurd the Blagojevich saga has become: People are so busy looking for feasible ways to get Blago out of office, even a satirical idea has to be taken into account.

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Mark Brown's new proposal is for the state to offer the governor cash in exchange for his resignation -- an official bribe, if you will:

I'm serious. Big corporations do it all the time. They've got a screw-up executive in the way, and they need to make a change. To save time and trouble, they pay him to get lost. It could be worth a try.

Would a year's salary do the trick? Probably not, but he'd have to give it serious thought.

Two years' salary? Might be too generous, but it would be better than if he somehow remained governor for the next two years and we had to pay him anyway. The cost would be more than offset by the savings of not having to pay for his lawyer, which strikes me as a real concern in the impeachment case.

Considering that Blago is alleged to have said on a federal wiretap, "I want to make money," maybe this could work...

Obama, at his presser today, defends the decision to choose Rick Warren to deliver the invocation as his inauguration with a restatement of his commitment to gay rights and, more broadly, to the principles of unity that have been a hallmark of his rise to power:

I am fierce advocate for equality for gay and -- well, let me start by talking about my own views. I think it is no secret that I am a fierce advocate for equality for gay and lesbian Americans. It is something I have been consistent on and something I intend to continue to be consistent on during my presidency.

What I've also said is that it is important for America to come together even though we may have disagreements on certain social issues.

And I would note that a couple of years ago I was invited to Rick Warren's church to speak, despite his awareness that I held views entirely contrary to his when it came to gay and lesbian rights, when it came to issues like abortion.

Nevertheless, I had an opportunity to speak, and that dialogue, I think, is a part of what my campaign's been all about, that we're never going to agree on every single issue. What we have to do is create an atmosphere where we can disagree without being disagreeable, and then focus on those things that we hold in common as Americans. So Rick Warren has been invited to speak, Dr. Joseph Lowery -- who has deeply contrasting views to Rick Warren about a whole host of issues -- is also speaking.

Obama is not so much using the left as a foil here as he is using division and polarization in general as his foil. The question that just won't go away, however, is why campaigning against division and polarization by picking an equally radical choice on the left to give the invocation would be politically unthinkable.

Such a decision would be met not just with screams from the right, but outrage from middle-of-the-road pols and pundits all over the country. But the pick of Warren is only generating outrage from the left, so it doesn't matter, and indeed, it's good for Obama politically, we're told.

To be clear, this state of affairs isn't Obama's fault, obviously. It's just an apparently un-mutable fact of our political life, for reasons that are beyond this blog's pay grade to grapple with.

Late Update: Aravosis wants to know when we're going to be asked to politely agree to disagree with haters of other groups.

Late Late Update: Here's the video:

The Clinton Foundation has released its list of donors, domestic and foreign, as part of the agreement reached with the Obama team to make Hillary Secretary of State, and the Associated Press takes first crack at framing the story by focusing on the foreign part:

Former President Bill Clinton's foundation has raised tens of millions of dollars from foreign governments that his wife will engage as the next secretary of state...

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia gave more than $10 million to the foundation, which pays for Clinton's presidential library and his charitable work around the world. Other foreign government givers include Norway, Kuwait, Qatar, Brunei, Oman, Italy and Jamaica. Indian interests are represented.

The coverage of this will be heavy with innuendo to the effect that there's something vaguely sinister about the fact that foreigners will be giving money to a charitable foundation doing good works around the world in order to influence Hillary. Obama doesn't seem to think there's a problem here, obviously, except perhaps for the bad press it has and will produce.

More on this in a bit.

The gang of pundits at First Read says the decision to have Rick Warren deliver the invocation at Obama's inauguration is brilliant politics, because it's getting the left to scream:

When Liberals Attack: Axelrod and Gibbs have to be smiling this morning with the news that gay-rights groups are angry that Obama has announced that conservative evangelical Rick Warren will give the invocation at Obama's inauguration. Why are they smiling? Because it never hurts -- at least when it comes to governing or running for re-election -- when you sometimes disappoint/anger your party's interest groups...

...when you look at the exit polls and see the large numbers of white evangelicals in swing states like North Carolina, Florida and Missouri, as well as emerging battlegrounds like Georgia and Texas, you'll understand what Obama's up to.

What about the question of whether it was, you know, the right thing to do? The conventions of mainstream political reporting and punditry simply don't allow for such a question to be entertained.

That aside, I'm with Steve Benen: Whatever short term political benefit this gives Obama is transitory at best, and it's easily outweighed by the downside: It gives an enormous platform, and the appearance of moderation, to someone whose views are radically out of step with Obama's -- things that can only help Warren when he opposes Obama's agenda on social issues for the rest of his presidency.

Obama Holding Presser, Will Announce Key Financial Appointments
Barack Obama is holding a 10:45 a.m. ET press conference in Chicago, where he is expected to announce the appointment of financial regulator Mary Schapiro to head up the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Georgetown law professor Daniel Tarullo for a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board.

Report: Obama's Announcement For LaHood To Come Friday
Barack Obama will reportedly wait until Friday to announce that he has picked retiring GOP Congressman Ray LaHood of Illinois to be his Secretary of Transportation. This would make sense thematically, as today's other appointments are strictly focused on the financial crisis.

Today: More Ballot-Counting In Minnesota
The Minnesota canvassing board is meeting today to sort through ballot challenges by the Coleman campaign, in a process that now seems certain to go well beyond their original goal of finishing by Friday. The board will also be considering a complaint by the Coleman camp: That due to human error, as many as 150 absentee ballots may have been counted twice -- but we can't know which ones without serious investigation.

Minnesota Supremes Could Rule On Coleman Suit To Stop Vote Count
The Minnesota Supreme Court could be handing down an opinion today on a Coleman campaign lawsuit to stop the review and counting of absentee ballots that appear to have been rejected because of clerical errors. Those ballots are expected to break to Al Franken for a variety of reasons, so a ruling in favor of Coleman could pull him out of the fire for now -- but a ruling against him would probably seal the deal for Franken.

Blagojevich's Attorney Confirms Blago Won't Pick A Senator
At a late news conference yesterday, Rod Blagojevich's lawyer Ed Genson confirmed that Blago will not attempt to appoint a Senator. "Harry Reid said that they're not going to accept anybody he picks," said Genson. "Why would he [Blagojevich] do that?"

Rahm To Stay Out Of Local Battle For His House Seat
The Chicago Sun-Times reports Rahm Emanuel is unlikely to intervene in the local fight among Democrats for his House seat, in the wake of the controversies surrounding Barack Obama's Senate seat. It's probably a good move.

Newspaper Readers Help Tuskeegee Airman Attend Inauguration
Quentin Smith, a 90-year old Tuskeegee Airman and retired principal from Gary, Indiana, will now be able to attend the inauguration of Barack Obama. When newspaper readers read about his problem -- the inaugural committee has given the surviving Airmen invitations, but Smith couldn't make it due to the very high costs of lodging -- people ranging from old students to a hotel executive all chipped in for him to go.

It's official: Rep. Virgil Goode, the Virginia Republican best known for denouncing the election of Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) as the first Muslim member of Congress, has conceded defeat against Democratic Rep.-Elect Tom Perriello.

Goode asked for a recount after the certified total gave Perriello a 745-vote lead out of over 300,000 votes cast. The chance of turning around that kind of deficit was nearly non-existent, and now that the recount has finished Goode has conceded via press release.

The interesting thing here is that Goode was an absolutely safe occupant of this seat until this cycle -- to most people it didn't even seem possible that he could lose this year until the final week or two of the campaign. One has to wonder if his angry remarks against Ellison made the difference, turning him from a secure incumbent into a cartoon character.

This isn't going to help dispel the "Obama stiff-arming liberals" narrative. The news today that bigoted pastor Rick Warren is going to give the invocation at Barack Obama's inauguration is sparking an uproar on the left, with the latest being that the venerable liberal group People For The American Way is sharply condemning the decision.

Here's the group's statement:

It is a grave disappointment to learn that pastor Rick Warren will give the invocation at the inauguration of Barack Obama.

Pastor Warren, while enjoying a reputation as a moderate based on his affable personality and his church's engagement on issues like AIDS in Africa, has said that the real difference between James Dobson and himself is one of tone rather than substance. He has recently compared marriage by loving and committed same-sex couples to incest and pedophilia. He has repeated the Religious Right's big lie that supporters of equality for gay Americans are out to silence pastors. He has called Christians who advance a social gospel Marxists. He is adamantly opposed to women having a legal right to choose an abortion.

I'm sure that Warren's supporters will portray his selection as an appeal to unity by a president who is committed to reaching across traditional divides. Others may explain it as a response to Warren inviting then-Senator Obama to speak on AIDS and candidate Obama to appear at a forum, both at his church. But the sad truth is that this decision further elevates someone who has in recent weeks actively promoted legalized discrimination and denigrated the lives and relationships of millions of Americans.

Rick Warren gets plenty of attention through his books and media appearances. He doesn't need or deserve this position of honor. There is no shortage of religious leaders who reflect the values on which President-elect Obama campaigned and who are working to advance the common good.

To be clear, this isn't only Obama's decision. But the official press release describes the President-elect as one of the co-deciders, and it's unthinkable that it would happen without his explicit approval.

As you regulars know, this blog has argued that it's premature for liberals to get too agitated about Obama's cabinet picks and that we should wait to let his policies do the talking. But I'm not sure how you can defend this one, even if the two men are friends and the choice doesn't necessarily have actual policy implications.

After all, the decision really gives Warren an extraordinary platform -- not to mention yet another data point supporting the bogus notion that the radical Warren is some kind of "moderate." If the first black president doesn't mind him giving the invocation at his historic inaugural, how bad and bigoted can he really be?

More from Atrios, FireDogLake, AmericaBlog. and Steve Benen.

The Minnesota Supreme Court just finished hearing arguments on Norm Coleman's lawsuit to stop the counting of ballots that are found to have been rejected due to clerical errors, and here's the deal: It didn't look great for Coleman.

Things started off on the wrong foot for Coleman's attorney Roger Magnuson right when he opened with political sloganeering, saying that the state canvassing board had "accepted an invitation to Florida in 2008." He was immediately interrupted by justices telling him that this is not Florida, and they don't need to be told about Florida. Things only went downhill from there.

Franken's lawyer William Pentelovitch got his share of rough questions, but they were generally of a different character -- that is, asking him to explore various ramifications of his arguments and to answer objections to them, rather than direct attacks on his entire logical underpinnings. Only one justice of the five hearing the case, Lorie Skjerven Gildea, was outright hostile to him.

If we're going entirely by which campaign had a harder time with the judge's questions -- which can often be true, but is far from being a perfect predictor -- Coleman would have to be considered the underdog in winning this lawsuit. But surprises can still definitely happen.

The Huffington Post got an advance look at the forthcoming New York Times magazine profile of Robert Gibbs, the campaign spokesperson who will be White House press secretary.

Check out the disdain that Obama campaign manager David Plouffe seemed to harbor for The Page's Mark Halperin and Politico:

The article, written by Mark Leibovich, recounts various elements of Gibb's communications strategy during the campaign that seem to defy common perceptions. For example, the Obama team, with all its tech savvy, new media skills, generally shunned political websites that dictated election coverage.

"Staff members were encouraged to ignore new Web sites like The Page, written by Time's Mark Halperin, and Politico," writes Leibovich. "'If Politico and Halperin say we're winning, we're losing,' Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, would repeat mantra-like around headquarters."

As amusing as that will be to you all, my personal experience of the Obama campaign is a bit at odds with this. Politico was treated like royalty by the Obama camp, which lavished a steady stream of leaks on the upstart website. Politico got more love from the Obama camp than the liberal blogs did, for instance -- even though the liberal blogs were going after John McCain way more aggressively than Politico was.

And I remember Obama staffers getting pretty worked up about what did and didn't appear on The Page.

I've checked in with Halperin and Politico to see if they want to say anything. Incidentally, the whole piece is now up online.

Late Update: A Time spokesperson emails that the mag will have no comment.

Late Late Update: Politico editor John Harris emails over this response:

I'm outraged on The Page's behalf.

Here's the latest on the endless Minnesota recount.

With three quarters of all the ballots the Franken campaign has challenged now reviewed by the canvassing board, which we're watching via live feed, Franken is continuing the run of good math we reported he was getting yesterday.

With 339 ballots sorted, Coleman has made a net gain of 140 votes, for a pick-up rate of only about 41%. Coleman was always expected to gain votes from this phase, as the vast majority of all challenges are struck down, but his net pick-up rate seems pretty low.

The meeting is giving us a good idea of the nature of Franken's challenges, which was a very crucial piece of information that has been missing until now. A majority are attempts to not get ballots counted for Coleman, but it turns out a very good portion of them are also attempts to get votes counted for Al -- and he's doing very well on those.

The remaining mystery is what the makeup will be of the Coleman camp's challenges, and what Franken's net gain from them will be when they're sorted out. But the potential clearly exists for Franken to catch Coleman when this is over.

Meet the fine fellow who will be the number one foe of the big unions as they try to pass their number one legislative priority next year: He's a D.C. cartoon villain business lobbyist who fights efforts to restrict drunk driving, mandate healthier foods, and, of course, to hike the minimum wage.

He's Rick Berman, a notorious and familiar figure in D.C. who has spent years lobbying for business interests, many of them in the food and restaurant industries, and has been called everything from "sleazy" to "Dr. Evil" by his enemies.

We're introducing you to Berman because he is going to be at the center of one of the biggest looming fights in Washington this spring: The battle between business and labor over the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for unions to organize and is labor's number one legislative goal.

Berman runs a group called the "Center for Union Facts," which bills itself as a union watchdog organization but is described as a front group for business interests by labor officials. The group, which doesn't disclose its donors, will be one of several key business and right-wing groups leading the charge to kill the Employee Free Choice Act.

Berman himself has vowed to raise some $30 million to fund various efforts to battle it. The other day his group took out a full page ad in The New York Times showcasing the new strategy being employed by the Act's opponents: Use the Blagojevich scandal and SEIU's contacts with the Blago camp to smear unions and portray the Act itself as some kind of payoff from Dems being demanded by Big Bad Labor.

Given Berman's role, it seems worthwhile to get to know him a bit.

Read more »

"Change" is everywhere!

The Illinois Republicans appear to already be preparing their message for a special election for Barack Obama's Senate seat, if one were to occur: Change.

On a conference call with reporters, Illinois GOP press secretary Lance Trover attacked the Dems for putting the special-election proposal on hold, citing independent polling and the state GOP's own internal survey showing wide public support for it. "So there's a real desire for change," Trover said.

Trover emphasized the Change theme again, later on: "They want a change, they want something different."

Trover also made sure to include another message that will come up if an election is held: That all these same Democratic leaders actively supported Blago's re-election in 2006, even while he was under investigation -- and he even worked in a dig against Rahm Emanuel and Barack Obama himself, including them in a long list of state pols.

It's so crazy, it just might work.

As we noted here a few weeks ago, foodies and others with an interest in food policy are hoping that Obama's new Secretary of Agriculture has a very expansive vision of the post.

The food types recently wrote a letter to Obama's transition calling for the new Ag Sec to develop an integrated vision that takes into account everything from childhood obesity to high standards for humane farms to conservation and animal welfare, worker's rights and renewal energy.

How does Obama's choice for the post, Tom Vilsack, view the position? As it turns out, he has now elaborated on his vision for the post in a recent interview.

He, too, seems to view the post expansively, saying that it's a "department that impacts every American." More specifically, his priorities seem to be addressing the international food crisis in a way that enhances American "soft power" abroad, accelerating research into biofuels, improving school nutrition, and food security and safety.

"So there are a lot of issues that that department must deal with, and they're really important because everybody's got to eat," Vilsack said.

One big outstanding question: Whether to honor the ethanol industry's requests for billions of dollars in federal aid as part of the stimulus bill,

On this score, Ezra Klein points out one potential problem with the Vilsack appointment: He's from a state heavily dependent on corn subsidies.

For those of you who like this stuff, Vilsack's interview is here.

We usually don't give much attention to internal polls, but this one is interesting: The Illinois Republicans clearly think the Blagojevich scandal has put Barack Obama's former Senate seat at risk for the Democrats, and they're ready and eager for a special election fight.

The state GOP has released an internal poll, conducted by the Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates, saying that 66% of the state's voters favor holding a special election. The poll also includes an example of what is known as testing negatives. This practice is different from a push poll, in that the pollster is genuinely interested in collecting data to see how responsive the public would be to an attack line, in this case connecting Democrats to Blago:

If a candidate for office in Illinois supported or endorsed Rod Blagojevich's re-election for Governor in 2006 even though he was already under investigation for 3 years, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate? If it would make no difference, just say so.

Not surprisingly, the "less likely" position gets a 70% response. And since any Democratic candidate will have at least nominally supported Blago in 2006, or perhaps even campaigned for him, the GOP really sees an opening here if a special election were to happen.

Obama Holding Presser, Announcing Salazar And Vilsack For Cabinet
Barack Obama is holding a press conference in Chicago at 11:45 a.m. ET, at which he is expected to announce the appointments of Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) as Secretary of the Interior, and former Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) as Secretary of Agriculture.

Today: Minnesota Sorts Through More Challenged Ballots
The Minnesota state canvassing board is meeting all day today for the Senate recount, as the five members sort through more ballots that were challenged by the Franken and Coleman campaigns during the manual recount. The board's judgments on these ballots will likely determine who is sitting as a U.S. Senator from Minnesota a month from now.

Minnesota Supremes Hearing Coleman Lawsuit To Stop Vote Count
Another important event today in Minnesota: The Minnesota Supreme Court is hearing arguments at 2 p.m. ET, for a lawsuit filed by the Coleman campaign to stop the review and counting of absentee ballots that were rejected because of clerical errors. These votes are expected to break for Al Franken if they are counted, due to pre-election polling that showed him solidly winning absentee votes overall.

Bush Administration Prepares Crisis Briefings To Help Obama
The Bush Administration has prepared special crisis briefings for the incoming Obama White House, a set of detailed memos for what to do in case of events like a terrorist attack or an outbreak of new hostilities in the Middle East. The contingency plans are an effort to fulfill one of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, of having a better transition process that lets a a new White House be well-prepared for problems that could arise early in the term

Becerra Turns Down Offer To Serve In Obama White House
Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA) has turned down an offer to serve in the Obama Administration as the U.S. trade representative. Becerra has a seat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, earned through 16 years of seniority, and preferred to not give up the opportunities it presents.

D.C. (Just Barely) Revises Extended Bar Hours For Inauguration
The D.C. council has modified their recent legislation to allow bars to remain open for 24 hours a day in the run-up to Barack Obama's inauguration, a law that was designed to accommodate the rush of tourists and to stimulate the local economy. The original bill allowed bars to continue serving alcohol until 5 a.m., but that has now been rolled back to 4 a.m. -- a very slight concession to law-enforcement officials who oppose the idea entirely.

Obama Is Time's Person Of The Year
Barack Obama has been declared "Person Of The Year" by Time, an honor that is almost always given to a newly-elected president:

The real story of Obama's year is the steady march of seemingly impossible accomplishments: beating the Clinton machine, organizing previously marginal voters, harnessing the new technologies of democratic engagement, shattering fundraising records, turning previously red states blue -- and then waking up the day after his victory to reinvent the presidential-transition process in the face of a potentially dangerous vacuum of leadership.

Here's a fun coda to today's exhausting meeting of the Minnesota canvassing board: The Coleman campaign suddenly indicated that it wants to bring back some of their challenges that they'd previously withdrawn -- a development that will probably drag out this process well past the board's original goal of finishing by Friday.

Both campaigns lodged thousands of challenges during the manual recount phase, then withdrew thousands of frivolous ones going into the meeting. But now the Coleman camp wants to take back some of those withdrawals. A very nonplussed board asked why the campaigns would continue to bring challenges, after they'd spent the day establishing clear rules and precedents to figure out which challenges are meritless.

Coleman's lawyer Tony Trimble then explained that the campaign was seeking clarification, after the rulings today hinted that they might be able to win some of their withdrawn challenges. When board members asked if he would also be withdrawing more challenges -- and the Coleman camp already has a little bit under a thousand of them -- Trimble assured the board that this would be under consideration, too.

Barack Obama will reportedly name former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack -- who had previously said he didn't think he was at all in the running for a cabinet post -- as his Secretary of Agriculture.

The fact that Obama is appointing an Iowan to manage ag policy could signal that he isn't eager to take up the fight that some food-policy activists have urged, to have a secretary who isn't so tight with agribusiness and the existing regime of crop subsidies.

Here's a rarity these day: A Senate vacancy that might actually get filled in a speedy and orderly fashion, without any public acrimony.

We refer here to the seat of Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar, who is expected to be announced as Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior. We asked Evan Dreyer, spokesman for Dem Gov. Bill Ritter, when an appointment could be made to the seat.

"If there is an official announcement, if this does occur, then it would be as quick as possible," Dreyer told us.

Salazar had been leading potential GOP challengers in the polls going into his 2010 re-election campaign, but there's an ample supply of other choices for the Dems in this newly-blue state: Reps. John Salazar (Ken's brother), Ed Perlmutter and Diana Degette; Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper; Denver school superintendent Michael Bennet, and quite a few more.

Dreyer was unable to elaborate further on any timeframe, but "as quick as possible" sounds better than what's going on in Illinois and New York -- and hopefully it'll be much less of a train wreck.

Caroline Kennedy is picking up support in her quest to grab Hillary's Senate seat from none other than the Dems' Senate leader, Harry Reid.

Reid privately told New York Governor David Paterson, who will pick Hillary's replacement, that he backed Kennedy.

"Senator Reid called Governor Patterson a week or so ago to voice support for her," a Senate leadership aide emails. "He thinks that she would make an outstanding senator."

It's unclear how or whether Reid's backing will impact Paterson's thinking.

Late Update: Reid himself explains his thinking in an interview set to air tonight:

"She's 52 years old. I've spoken to her. She was part of a vetting process for vice presidential choices for Obama. She's lived in government and politics her whole life. I think it would be a tremendous thing...We have a lot of stars from New York. Bobby Kennedy. Hillary Clinton. I think Caroline Kennedy would be perfect."

We're watching today's big meeting of the Minnesota state canvassing board, so you don't have to. And guess what: All things considered, things seem to be going pretty well for Al Franken, though there some very important caveats.

At today's meeting they're reviewing challenged ballots, a process that is expected to last through to the end of the week. The board is looking over ballots that either of the two campaigns have had taken out of the count until now, arguing that it should be counted for themselves or not counted for the opponent for some reason.

Today's meeting is dealing entirely with ballots challenged by Franken, a mix of votes that Al's camp wants to have either prevented from being counted for Coleman, or to be put into his own total when they otherwise wouldn't have been. As such, Norm Coleman is going to pick up votes as most challenges are struck down, putting those ballots back in his column.

But Coleman's pick-up hasn't been that impressive, measured against the expectation that nearly all challenges would be overruled.

Read more »

As I noted here yesterday, the way to poll the Blago mess is not to ask respondents the meaningless question of whether people think Obama's team was "involved" in the scandal, as Rasmussen did -- a formulation that could mean literally anything.

Rather, the better, more fine-grained question is whether people think anyone on Obama's team did anything wrong in connection with it.

Now Gallup has done just that. The result?

* Only 26% think someone on Obama's staff has "done something illegal" in connection with the mess.

* Only 29% think someone on Obama's staff has "done something unethical."

What's more, the partisan breakdowns show that those totals are heavily fueled by Republicans saying Obama's team did something wrong, while large numbers of Dems and independents don't agree. And even the number of Republicans who've reached those conclusions isn't especially high: Less than half think someone did something illegal, while 54% think someone did something unethical.

Gallup's conclusion: "There has been no diminution in the public's high level of confidence in Obama." And when the question is asked properly, that becomes even clearer.

President Bush, in an interview with Real Clear Politics:

"I still think we're a right-of-center country," the President responded when asked whether the election offered proof that the ideological center of the country had shifted to the left.

Never mind that huge majorities support Obama's domestic and foreign policy agena, which includes pulling out of Iraq, talking to hostile foreign leaders, making health care available to everyone, hiking taxes on the rich, combating global warming, etc. etc.

Plans for a special election to fill Barack Obama's Senate seat suddenly appear to be in serious jeopardy, after the state House Dems put the whole thing on hold last night -- a development that throws the whole situation into limbo and could quite possibly put this once-safe seat at risk for Dems.

"It hasn't been tabled permanently," an aide to a top legislative Democrat told Election Central. "It could die, but they are still working on it."

If the special were cancelled, the vacancy would have to be filled by Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn stepping in at least temporarily to make an appointment, and the situation could potentially set the Dems up for some danger in holding on to the seat by 2010. Whoever gets picked will face extra scrutiny, there would be questions about whether they were involved in the Blago scandal, and the possibility would exist for a backlash against the Dems because of the cancelled election plans.

The next step will be for the legislature to figure out whether they're going to do -- and how they would pay the massive $30-$50 million price tag if they did go ahead with an election -- or to figure out how they'll pick an appointee and manage the political ramifications of an appointment. But for now, this seat is still vacant.

Kicking off what promises to be a huge fight over labor's top legislative priority, a pro-business group is sinking over a million dollars into a TV ad campaign tying Rod Blagojevich to "union bosses" and calling on Democratic Senators in four states to oppose the Employee Free Choice Act.

The ad -- which was sent over by a source and hasn't been released to the press -- seeks to tar the Employee Free Choice Act as vaguely corrupt-sounding by tying it rather tangentially to the Blago mess. It's being aired by Americans for Job Security, a business-funded group that is expected to spend big money to sink the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for unions to organize and is labor's top goal for 2009:

An official with Americans for Free Choice confirms the size of the buy, and says the ad will run for more than a week in Arkansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Colorado. The spot, which is now on the air, targets Dem Senators Pryor, Nelson, Dorgan, and Salazar

The ad makes a bunch of guilt-by-association connections that take you from Blago all the way to the Employee Free Choice Act and are a bit difficult to track. First it hits Blago, the "corrupt Illinois Governor." Then it brings up SEIU, "the union" which discussed the "Senate seat payoff." And then it describes the Employee Free Choice Act as "payback" for "union bosses" who helped elect Dems to the Senate:

The idea, obviously, is to use the alleged Blago dealmaking to tar the Employee Free Choice Act, which is a pretty big leap. This will be one of the biggest fights of the upcoming legislative season, so expect much more like this.

Late Update: Jon Youngdahl, National Political Director for the SEIU, sends over a quote faulting the ad:

"This attack against working people from a business-funded front group is a desperate attempt to distract from what really matters. America's families need change that works to rebuild the middle class with the free choice to join unions for better wages, benefits, and retirement security. That's why we need the Employee Free Choice Act."

So how big is Obama's mandate on foreign policy? A new poll from The Washington Post suggest that it's sizable indeed.

The poll finds that large majorities hold opinions about foreign policy that dovetail with Obama's to a striking degree. Despite the fact that a sizable majority thinks things are going well in Iraq, a bigger majority -- 70% -- want Obama to stick to his promise to pull out the troops within the next 16 months, though there are differences as to how quickly he should begin doing that. Sixty-four percent say the war wasn't worth fighting.

Meanwhile, a majority of 51% agrees with Obama that Iraq is peripheral to the broader war on terror, while the same number agrees with him that Afghanistan is the central front in the terror war.

These numbers remind us that the campaign's relentless focus on the economy has obscured the degree to which Obama's win also represented a big victory for Obama's foreign policy vision over GOP militarism, jingoism and faux patriotism.

Now that Caroline Kennedy has declared her interest in Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, what will Hillary herself do or say in order to influence New York Governor David Paterson's efforts to choose her successor?

Nothing, her spokesperson tells us.

The questions swirling in New York political circles, as First Read puts it this morning, are:

"Will we see Clinton speak soon? And just what will she say? While Clinton supporters still might be miffed at Kennedy for going against the state's favorite daughter, will the Clintons themselves like the fact that a Kennedy wants to follow a Clinton in the Senate? Answers to those questions would give us our best clues as to whether we're really going to see a Camelot return to DC.

According to Hillary spokesperson Phillippe Reines, however, we won't be hearing from her; and furthermore, any Clinton "supporters" who speak out don't speak for her. Reines emails over this:

This is entirely Governor Paterson's decision, Senator Clinton completely respects the privacy of his process so will not be commenting on it or any individual candidate, nor does any third party speak on her behalf.

Don't expect anyone to pay any attention to what Hillary's office says, obviously. It's hard to see how Hillary could make a serious effort to wire her successor behind the scenes, since it would inevitably leak out. And it's not even that clear how much influence she would be able to have over the process, should she even try to exercise any.

Late Update: The Huffington Post reports that Caroline Kennedy has reached out to Hillary for her support, and adds that one hurdle for Caroline is to win over Clinton backers disaffected by the Kennedys' support for Obama in the Dem primary.

A private signal from Hillary to these backers could have an impact, though it's unclear how -- or whether -- that would have any material influence over Paterson's decision.

Today: The Minnesota Canvassing Board Handles Challenged Ballots
It's a big day in the Minnesota recount, with the state canvassing board meeting today at 1 p.m. ET for their first day of adjudicating ballots that have been challenged by either campaign and thus taken out of the count until now. This process is expected to go until the end of the week, at which point we could finally have a clear picture of where Norm Coleman and Al Franken stand.

Obama Holding Presser, Announcing Sec. Of Education
Barack Obama is holding a press conference in Chicago at 11:45 a.m. ET. He is expected to announce the appointment of Arne Duncan, currently the CEO of the Chicago public schools, as his Secretary of Education.

Obama Meeting With Economic Team
Barack Obama is holding a meeting today with Joe Biden, Rahm Emanuel and many of his top economic advisors: Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, Peter Orszag, Christina Romer, Melody Barnes, Carol Browner, Jared Bernstein, Paul Volcker and Austan Goolsbee.

Report: Salazar Accepts Cabinet Post, Opening Up Senate Seat
Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) has reportedly accepted the role of Secretary of the Interior in the Obama Administration. A variety of names are being floated for appointment to his Senate seat in this newly-blue state: Reps. John Salazar (Ken's brother), Ed Perlmutter and Diana Degette; Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper; Denver school superintendent Michael Bennet, and quite a few more.

McCain Holding Press Conference Today, Too
John McCain has his own press conference today, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. It's not immediately clear what the subject matter will be.

Caroline Kennedy Picks Up Support Of Slaughter, Sharpton
Caroline Kennedy has been endorsed in her bid for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat by upstate Congresswoman Louise Slaughter and Al Sharpton. The real authority to fill this seat, rests with Gov. David Paterson, of course, but he can certainly take into account public pressure and consideration for his own 2010 campaign.

Blago's Wife Apologizes To Neighbors
Rod Blagojevich's wife Patti has sent a note to their neighbors, apologizing for the disruption that has been caused by the media swarming around them: "While we signed up for this kind of attention by choosing a life in public service, you didn't. All you did was choose to live in our wonderful neighborhood."

Barack Obama has yet another press conference tomorrow, scheduled for 11:45 a.m. ET, as he rolls out another member of his cabinet.

Obama will reportedly name Arne Duncan, currently the CEO of the Chicago Public Schools, as his Secretary of Education.

Hopefully, tomorrow's press conference can actually focus more on education policy instead of the ongoing Blagojevich scandal. Today's presser unveiling Obama's energy and environmental team was mostly on topic, so perhaps things are steadily improving.

Al Franken isn't out of the woods yet.

The state Supreme Court has agreed to hear Norm Coleman's lawsuit to stop the counting of the wrongly-rejected absentee votes, which have come to be known as the "Fifth Pile." The court will be hearing arguments Wednesday.

The court's order doesn't give any obvious hints as to which way they would rule -- it only means that they see this question as important enough to hear arguments and give a ruling -- but it does show that the fight over these ballots is far from over.

The Coleman camp has argued that the wrongly-rejected absentees can't be included in the recounted totals, but can only be a basis for challenging the result in court once an outcome is certified without them. Considering the extreme difficulty of an election challenge, you can see the logic of their strategy, and of the Franken camp's urgency to get these ballots tallied.

In a good sign for Franken, the court didn't stop local officials from counting these ballots in the meantime, which the Coleman camp had been asking for -- but the suit may already be having a chilling effect. Minneapolis city spokesman Matt Laible told Election Central that the city is not likely to move immediately on counting their pile: "Any decision that would be made would probably be coming tomorrow or later, and probably later, considering the court hearing on Wednesday."

It's been pointed out dozens of times that it's pretty cool to have an adult coming in as president, and today's Obama press conference -- now underway -- is a case in point.

At the presser, Obama made his "green team" official: Steven Chu, a physics Nobel laureate, is his new energy secretary. Carol Browner, the former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, is the head of a new policy council to coordinate climate, environment and energy issues. And Lisa Jackson, the chief of staff for New Jersey's governor, is head of the EPA.

"My administration will value science," Obama said, in what sounded like a pointed reference to his predecessor. "We will make decisions based on facts."

Obama went on to describe combating global warming as "a leading priority of my presidency and a defining test of our time."

The glowing praise from liberals of Chu would seem to constitute yet another blow to the "angry left" meme. More broadly, Obama's lines today will encapsulate for liberals as strongly as anything Obama has said just how big the potential of the moment feels right now, since the previous administration's disdain for "science" and "facts" contributed perhaps as much as anything else to the nightmarish quality the last eight years held for them.

Here's yet another complication in the struggle to fill Barack Obama's vacant Senate seat: County clerks in Illinois say a statewide special election would cost $30-$50 million dollars, and they simply don't have that kind of money.

Indeed, holding an election like this would require the state to shell out a lot of cash to the local election officials. By itself, this probably isn't enough to stop a special election, but it definitely makes things uncomfortable if the state has to find the money to pay for it.

One possible solution by itself shows what a mess this is: Waiting to hold the race so it coincides with the local elections scheduled for next year, with the primary on Feb. 24 and the general election on April 7 -- leaving Illinois without a second Senator for four months.

This kind of fiscal reality could lead the legislature to the compromise idea that's been floated -- to allow Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn to make a temporary appointment while simultaneously opting for the special.

The Obama transition team has completed its internal probe into any contacts the Obama team has had with the Blagojevich camp over Obama's Senate seat -- but the results won't be released until next week.

Here's the statement, just out from Obama spokesperson Dan Pfeiffer:

"At the direction of the President-elect, a review of Transition staff contacts with Governor Blagojevich and his office has been conducted and completed and is ready for release. That review affirmed the public statements of the President-elect that he had no contact with the governor or his staff, and that the President-elect's staff was not involved in inappropriate discussions with the governor or his staff over the selection of his successor as US Senator.

"Also at the President-elect's direction, Gregory Craig, counsel to the Transition, has kept the US Attorney's office informed of this fact-gathering process in order to ensure our full cooperation with the investigation.

"In the course of those discussions, the US Attorney's office requested the public release of the Transition review be deferred until the week of December 22, in order not to impede their investigation of the governor. The Transition has agreed to this revised timetable for release."

So the Obama team is claiming that its internal review has found that no Obama staff engaged in any inappropriate discussions of any dealmaking around the seat. But at Fitzgerald's request, the details as to what contacts did take place won't be released until next week.

The Obama transition team is reaffirming his complete commitment to net neutrality and is disputing a much-discussed report today claiming that the President-elect is softening his support for it or shifting his position on it.

Obama transition spokesperson Nick Shapiro told us moments ago that Obama's position -- strong support for net neutrality -- hasn't changed.

As we noted below, The Wall Street Journal set off a bit of a Web explosion today by reporting that support for net neutrality is eroding and asserting that that Google is supposedly turning against the idea and has approached major cable and phone companies with a secret proposal to "fast track" its content.

The Journal story (which was strongly disputed by Google and many others) also suggests, based on scant evidence, that Obama's position may have softened. But the paper didn't appear to contact the Obama team for any comment.

So we did. Asked if the Obama camp had shifted its stance in any way on net neutrality or softened its commitment to it, Shapiro answered: "No." Even limited public declarations (such as this one) from the Obama transition team about the incoming administration's priorities have been few and far between.

Separately, writer and net neutrality activist Timothy Karr writes in the Huffington Post that Obama's support for net neutrality has historically proven reliable:

The president-elect has made numerous public statements on the campaign trail and published a detailed policy document placing Net Neutrality as his top priority. He's explicitly opposed paid "quality of service" arrangements and was also a co-sponsor of the Dorgan-Snowe bill that is the strongest Net Neutrality legislation ever proposed.

We now know that according to Obama's transition team, his positions haven't changed.

It's striking: The Franken campaign really is now convinced that they're going to win this thing.

You could sense their optimism during a briefing they just had with reporters, which was convened to discuss a striking new AP analysis that vindicates the Franken camp's claims that a resolution of the challenged ballots could put them ahead, and also to ridicule the Coleman camp's efforts to stop the count of wrongly-rejected absentee ballots in the wake of Friday's state canvassing board meeting.

Franken's lead recount attorney Marc Elias hammered the Coleman camp for suing at the state Supreme Court, and telling the public they were simply looking for guidance on how to count the ballots. But it turns out the Coleman camp's actual court filing on Saturday showed that they were trying to shut down the counting of those ballots completely. At one point an amused Elias told a reporter: "People usually don't tell the truth for a reason."

The Franken campaign's previous briefings had a very defensive tone to them, as Elias struggled to convince reporters of the validity of both their vote-count methodology and their legal arguments. But now that both arguents have been vindicated, the tone has changed dramatically -- it no longer sounds at all like spin, now that they're in the dominant position.

The Illinois legislature is now officially getting the ball rolling on impeaching Rod Blagojevih, with state House Speaker Mike Madigan (father of state Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan) announcing the formation of a special bipartisan House committee at a press conference just now.

"We're gonna ask the committee to begin work tomorrow, and work everyday except Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, until they have rendered a judgment," Madigan said, stressing the importance of speed. But he also added: "I'm not gonna be one who's gonna rush to judgment about the possible impeachment of a sitting governor of the state of Illinois."

The catch: Since Madigan the Elder is committed to ensuring Blagojevich's rights of due process, this just means he's going to continue as governor for quite a while longer as they go through a methodical impeachment proceeding. And since they feel to the need to convene this special committee, that tells us even more that Blago probably won't be resigning any time soon.

So Blago is still going to be the governor, and Barack Obama's Senate seat will stay vacant as they try to figure out how to proceed with a special election. Unless something drastic happens, expect this thing to drag out for weeks -- perhaps even going into the beginning of Barack Obama's actual term as president.

Speaking of polling on the Blago mess, another poll has now come out testing whether it's harming Obama, and the conclusion seems to be a pretty clear No.

From a new Washington Post/ABC News poll:

Do you think Obama has or has not done enough to explain any discussions his representative may have had with Blagojevich about the Senate seat?

Has: 51%

Has not: 34%

No opinion: 14%

A majority says he's done enough -- and keep in mind that this comes in advance of his promised release of any and all info about contacts between the Obama and Blago camps. If pollsters were to ask whether people think the Obama camp has done anything wrong in connection with the Blago mess, it's our bet that the numbers would be still better.

Of course, we still don't know what the Obama team's internal probe will ultimately find or what else will come out. But so far so good: The poll also finds that 76% now approve of the way he's handling the transition, despite the roar of media coverage saying he'll inevitably be "dogged" by the scandal in some way.

If you were hoping for a quick resolution to the question of how to dislodge Blagojevich from office and fill Barack Obama's Senate seat, what with the Illinois legislature convening today to consider impeachment and a special-election bill, don't expect any answers for now.

"Today is gonna be Debate Day," an aide to a top legislative Democrat tells Election Central, explaining that while there is widespread approval for a special election, the actual shape of it is still undetermined -- so nothing much will actually get done today beyond reviewing the various proposals.

There are many questions to consider with a special election: Legislators would have to agree on a timeline for holding it, figure out how to pay for it, and could potentially agree to a compromise measure allowing both a temporary appointment and a sped-up special election calendar. But it's still too early to really get a handle on the situation.

So for now we're still stuck with Blagojevich in office, and Barack Obama's former Senate seat is still up in the air.

We now have our first public polling on the impact that the Blago mess has had on Obama's numbers, and the results are mixed.

A new Rasmussen poll shows that the public is split pretty evenly on whether they think Barack Obama or any of his top aides were involved with the Blagojevich Scandal: Forty-five percent of likely voters say it's very likely or somewhat likely that the Obama folks were involved, while 46% say it's not very likely or not at all likely that they were.

To be sure, it's unclear what the pollsters mean when they ask if they think the Obama camp was "involved" with the Blago scandal -- for respondents, "involved" could mean anything from having had perfectly routine discussions about the seat to something genuinely pernicious. A more fine-grained question would have asked whether people think Obama or his aides had done anything wrong in connection with the Blago mess.

Indeed, the scandal hasn't taken any real toll on Obama's approval ratings, with the Rasmussen daily tracker giving him a 65% approval rating, basically the same as where it was before this whole disaster began to unfold.

Still, the fact that nearly half are receptive to the idea that Obama or his aides are linked to the scandal, however vaguely, suggests that there's a lot riding on the success of Obama's plan to disclose any and all contacts between the two camps in the next few days.

The Wall Street Journal is causing a bit of a Web stir this morning with an article reporting that Google is backing away from "net neutrality" and has approached major carriers with an eye towards fast-tracking its own content.

The piece is relevant to the Obama administration because it also seems to be suggesting that Obama himself, and his advisers, are softening their commitment to it.

The article says that some "prominent internet scholars" who have advised Obama on tech issues have "softened their views on the subject." It adds that the supposed Google move could "test Mr. Obama's professed commitment to network neutrality." And it quotes Google's head of public affairs, Richard Whitt, as saying that Obama's net neutrality plans are "much less specific than they were before."

So is there any cause for concern about Obama's position? Doesn't look like it.

Read more »

The Presidential Inaugural Committee has hit on a novel way of reducing the pressure that the enormous crowd expected to show up on Inauguration Day will put on Washington: Have Barack Obama take a pre-inaugural railroad tour that will allow people to show up to view him and Joe Biden at multiple locations.

"As part of the most open and accessible Inauguration in history, we hope to include as many Americans as possible who wish to participate, but can't be in Washington," said the committee's executive director Emmett S. Beliveau, in the press release.

Obama will hold an event in Philadelphia the Saturday before the inauguration, then be joined by Joe Biden at an event in Wilmington, Delaware, with the two then proceeding to another rally in Baltimore, Maryland. It seems reasonable to expect that as the train heads to D.C., crowds could very well line the whole railroad to see them go by.

Bear in mind that the inauguration is expected to have millions of people trying to attend. Every person who can show up to the pre-inaugural events, or even catch a glimpse of the train going by, is somebody who won't necessarily feel they have to go to Washington that Tuesday.

Illinois GOP Ad: "You Deserve A Special Election"
The Illinois Republican Party has this new TV ad calling for a special election to fill Barack Obama's Senate seat, rather than allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn to make an appointment if Rod Blagojevich is removed -- a fight they apparently think they can win:

"The people of Illinois deserve better than another political power-grab," the announcer says. "You deserve to be heard. You deserve a special election."

Obama Meeting Today With National Security Team
Barack Obama will hold the first full meeting of his national-security team today in Chicago, featuring a mix of his own picks and hangers-on from George W. Bush. Participants will include Obama himself, Joe Biden, Robert Gates, Rahm Emanuel, Greg Craig, Hillary Clinton, Eric Holder, Janet Napolitano, Susan Rice, Jim Jones, Mike McConnell and Mike Mullen.

Obama Rolling Out Energy/Environmental Team Today
Barack Obama is holding a press conference in Chicago at 5 p.m. ET today, where he is expected to roll out his energy and environmental team. The nominees will include Steven Chu as Secretary of Energy, Lisa Jackson as EPA Administrator, Nancy Sutley as head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, and Carol Browner to head up a new policy council coordinating climate and energy issues.

Another Big Day In Minnesota
Keep a close eye on the Minnesota recount today, where we'll get a better idea of what effect Friday's favorable ruling for Franken on absentee ballots by the state canvassing board will have. The big questions are whether the Coleman campaign's attempt to go to court and block the counting of previously un-tallied absentee votes will work, and whether any votes could actually be counted up by the end of the day.

Illinois Legislature Convenes Today To Deal With Blago Mess
The Illinois legislature is convening today for their special session to figure out what to do about Rod Blagojevich. The key questions are whether to move on impeaching him now, and also picking from their list of options about Barack Obama's Senate seat: To quickly remove Blago and allow the new governor to make an appointment, to hold a special election, or to do both -- a temporary appointment combined with a special election.

Blago Spokesman: He's Not Quitting Today
Rod Blagojevich's spokesman told Reuters yesterday that Blago is not resigning today: "I can confirm the no resignation." There had been some talk of Blagojevich stepping down this week, either temporarily or a full resignation, but for now it looks like the ball is back in the state Dems' court, as they figure out how they'd prefer to remove him from office.

Obama To Truly Win Electoral College Today
Barack Obama's victory will be sealed today, as the presidential electors who were actually chosen on November 4 from the 50 states plus D.C. meet across the country to cast their ballots. After this, the only remaining step will be when Congress meets in January to officially certify the Electoral College result.

Officials: D.C. Transit Can't Handle Full Load Of Inauguration
D.C. officials say that the city's roads and mass-transit system simply can't handle the expected millions of people who will be coming into town for Barack Obama's inauguration. And even after those millions of people slowly make their way in, the real nightmare will just begin: All of them wanting to leave the city at the same time.

Madigan: Blago Could Step Down Monday, Potentially Still Receive Paycheck
Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan said today on Meet The Press that Rod Blagojevich could potentially still receive his paycheck if he were to temporarily step down as governor without fully resigning, a move that could possibly happen Monday. "And again, I have heard as well that that is one of his main concerns - his financial circumstances right now," said Madigan.

No Obama Or Biden Events Today
Barack Obama is in Chicago today, and Joe Biden is in Delaware. There are no public events scheduled.

Field For Obama's Seat Keeps Getting Bigger
Former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris (D) is now offering himself up as a potential candidate for Barack Obama's Senate seat, bringing the total field to nine people, by the New York Times' count. For his part, Burris said he would like to serve as a caretaker for two years, then not seek election in 2010 -- which could be an attractive feature to Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, if he were to take office soon and make an appointment in lieu of a special election.

Blagojevich Meets With Big-Name Lawyer
Rod Blagojevich met yesterday in Chicago with high-profile defense attorney Edward Genson, whose clientele also includes R. Kelly. Genson told the Chicago Tribune that he is not on retainer for Blagojevich, and is simply consulting.

McCain Rejects GOP Efforts To Hammer Obama On Blago Scandal
During his appearance today on ABC's This Week, John McCain talked down the GOP's efforts to tag Barack Obama with the Blagojevich scandal. "I think that the Obama campaign should and will give all information necessary," said McCain. "You know, in all due respect to the Republican National Committee and anybody -- right now, I think we should try to be working constructively together, not only on an issue such as this, but on the economy, stimulus package, reforms that are necessary."

McCain, On Possible Support For Palin: "My Corpse Is Still Warm"
Also his interview with George Stephanopoulos, John McCain said it was too early to say whether he would support Sarah Palin for president against the field of other potential Republican candidates. "Have no doubt of my admiration and respect for her and my view of her viability," McCain said, "But at this stage, my corpse is still warm!"

Palin's Church Damaged By Suspected Arson
Sarah Palin's church in Wasilla was damaged this weekend in a fire that is believed to have been arson. Palin's spokesperson said the governor has told the church she is sorry if the it turns out the fire was in any way connected to the "undeserved negative attention" resulting from her campaign for vice president.