Zogby: Obama Leading In Several Close Red States, Easily Holding Pennsylvania
A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:
• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.
• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.
• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.
• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.
All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.
Can anyone explain succinctly why Zogby is problematic? I've heard that Nate Silver has criticized him well, but I'm not aware of the details.
November 3, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. They are not transparent.
2. Their internals have no consistency.
3. They totally botched 2004 and had a terrible record in the 2008 primaries.
November 3, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. He uses poor sampling techniques, and refuses to even consider improving them.
2. Every time point #1 leads to wide swings between successive samples, he pretends it's a real shift in public opinion and makes up bogus "explanations" for it. To such an absurd extent that he'll do things like one day say McCain is making great inroads among independents, and the very next day (when his new sample has swung back) that Obama has solidified his hold on a big segment of independents, or some such.
November 3, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, he insulted Nate Silver, has a bad haircut, wears cheap suits, he doesn't like hip-hop, and we just don't like him.
Kiddin...... must be nerves. Feeling kind'a silly today. You betcha'.
November 3, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad you're kidding. If cheap suits and bad haircuts were a crime, I'd have to go into hiding by now. ;^)
November 3, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
You linked me to Joni Mitchell yesterday. "It's all over now, baby Blue..." That was an uncanny choice on your part. My mood has been calm, sweet, and upbeat ever since. Also a little teary. Joni and I go way back, ya see. Thanks again, Sky.
November 3, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
You just made my day. That makes me smile, Blue. It was the most loving thing I could say to you, without seeming inappropriate. Sometimes words fail, but I believe that love never does. Amen?
; )
November 3, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, love works - even between strangers! Bless you.
November 3, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! Considering your choice of vodka, doncha think SkyyModem would be a better handle?
Just wonderin...
November 3, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
lol... Perhaps I should change it to Skyymodem after Tuesday? Hmmm.
November 3, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah. Skymodem is perfect. Skyy'ing it would just be commercial :-)
November 3, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe it's primarily because Zogby weights his responses according to 2004 party self identification rations, which were roughly equal. This time round self-idents are about 40:30 (D:R), with 30 either independent or no response, which significantly skews the results to the Republicans' benefit.
FYI, I believe Nate's actually recapped his problems with Zogby's methodology this past week.
November 3, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I tell you, seeing Stephanopolous and his entire panel UNANIMOUSLY say Obama would win by 300 plus EV's yesterday on THIS WEEK was a big relief. Still makes me wince out of presumption worries, but damn, was that great to see!! HuffPo has a complete listing of all pundits and their predictions.
November 3, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Including George Will...358 ev's, 7-8 Senate seats too!
November 3, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
You noticed that EVERYONE that lowballed Obama's numbers said that it was his BASE amount and he could very well improve come election night. 396 folks.
November 3, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's Fred Barnes smoking?
November 3, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chads, hanging chads. Harsh, but stoney.
November 3, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking of changing my "Smirking" handle as of tomorrow BTW....
November 3, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Change is coming.... We'll adjust!
November 3, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Thera P! Ha-hah!
November 3, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's virtually impossible for Obama to not win any of the states Kerry won - I think the Bradley Effect is bullshit. Sure, some people out there could be affected by race, but not many.
The only blue "Kerry" state that may be a close call is PA, but Obama will still carry it.
November 3, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why mccreepy is still trying with PA. No poll in the last 2 weeks (or is it a month now?) has him close enough to really try.
what's the point?
November 3, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
You got me. OH, VA and FL I understand, but PA should be a long shot for McCain.
November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
He is searching for electoral votes anywhere, why do you think Sarah Palin is in Iowa.
November 3, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
2012. You betcha!
November 3, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iowa? LOL!!! They must be trying to look busy. Wow.
November 3, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, TheOne718 is right. She is indulging delusions of grandeur out there in that corn.
November 3, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, yes. I can see it now, Republican voters from bygone times emerging one by one from the hazy sea of green stalks.
November 3, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
He literally had nothing better to do, in the sense that somehow pulling off a miracle in PA was his only real path to 270 electoral votes. Without that he'd have to basically run the table in every other competitive state.
November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver has some interesting maps showing what a McCain win would look like. PA is not on his list of most likely scenarios, but it does appear on three of the four next most likely. Good stuff.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html
November 3, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really interesting. Thanks!
My favorite paragraph, emphases mine:
November 3, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Like I said, the race is over after IN is called for Obama.
November 3, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that parts of IN are on Central time, so the polls there will close later than the eastern states. Watch PA and VA. If both of them go for Obama, it's over. If OH and FL flip, it's REALLY over. If NC flips, the rout is on. If GA flips, we're talking landslide.
November 3, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's his only hope AND no early voting means any late breaking Anti-Obama "surprises" could really have an effect.
That and he's hoping for racism to win him the state - How pathetically sad is that for a Presidential candidate in this day in age.
November 3, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look these repubs are always looking for things that aren't there.
Remember the WMD in Iraq? These folks have "faith.'
November 3, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Proof That the Mason-Dixon Poll Skews ‘Conservative’
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4582
November 3, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Mason-Dixon says a Democrat is down by 1 he is really up by three.
November 3, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain knows he isn't even close in PA. It's all a psych job. He wants people to perceive that he's close so they don't completely give up and implode--which, from the sound of it, they're close to doing.
November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Huffington Post has an article that says McCain needs Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida to win.
If Obama takes Me,Vt,NH,Ma,RI,Ct,NY,NJ,De,Md,DC,Oh,Mi,Il Mn,Co,Ca,Or,Wa, and Hi, he gets 250 ev's and McCain gets 266.
That would leave Nv, NM, Ia, and Wi up for grabs. We know Obama has Nv and NM close to being in the bag so that leaves Ia and Wi.
So McCain could be shooting decoys going after those four.
November 3, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wahooo -- Chuck Todd says that 30% of eligible voters have already voted. Great news for Obama!!
November 3, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
And lines in the cities will still be 8hours+, I don't know if I'd sit my ass in a line for eight hours to vote. That's scandalous and criminal that folks have to wait in line for hours on end to vote in America.
November 3, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is and I hope beyond hope that we see real election reform and I think we will.
Now we will get listened to and now we have a chance of getting this shit done. The Repugs would not do it - ever - cause they hate democracy and think we should go back to only allowing white males who own property to vote.
November 3, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The R's have a long history of vote suppression, going back to poll taxes and literacy tests, continuing through caging and outright intimidation, leading to today's tactics of creating artificially long waits in minority precincts and purging voter rolls. I'm getting really sick of this shit.
November 3, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Tena, totally off-topic, but I wanted to share this with you, because I know you will enjoy it as much as I have. I have been reading blogs over at the National Review because I have been waiting to see conservatives crack under the strain, and today such anxiety is beginning to gush. This was the best part:
The answer, my dear fellows, is "no." No, the GOP cannot survive (or at least not the GOP as we presently know it) if Texas becomes a tossup, and yet Texas is becoming a tossup. And for that, we can all thank Gov Dean, Molly Ivins, and the good citizens of the Lone Star state. Won't it be sweet when the electoral map in 2012 looks like two blue parenthesis around a red streak running from Idaho to Alabama?
November 3, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the current justification from the Republicans for the long lines here in GA: if you were too lazy to vote early (even though the lines last week were mostly 4+ hrs) or if you were too lazy to vote absentee, then it's your own fucking fault so you should just stop fucking whining.
November 3, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the current justification from the Republicans for the long lines here in GA: if you were too lazy to vote early (even though the lines last week were mostly 4+ hrs) or if you were too lazy to vote absentee, then it's your own fucking fault so you should just stop fucking whining.
November 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Amen, Brother! Preach it!
November 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think they got hold of that "bankrupt coal" audio tape some time ago and held it in reserve for just this time. They came back to PA and blanketed the state with appearances, the PA GOP Wright ad, and planned to drop the tape at the last possible moment. With no early voting to bank in PA, this seemed like their best shot at chipping away some support.
Right now, I doubt that it will work, but it seems to be the only line of attack available to them.
November 3, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK, I'm going to get shit about this, but I'm going to admit I thought McCain was hysterical on SNL this past weekend.
For the first time in MONTHS, I saw the John McCain of 2000, albeit a glimpse. I also saw a glimpse of him at that fundraiser a couple of weeks ago that he and Obama roasted each other at. I saw the man I met in 2005 at a book signing and chatted for a couple of minutes with me about the Cubs (he noticed my Cub hat I was wearing).
NO, the SNL appearance won't help McCain tomorrow, but for what it was worth, it showed him to have a sense of humor about himself, even in (potential) defeat.
I just hope McCain is able to redeem himself in the eyes of those who once respected him, like myself, before he sold his political soul.
I think he will.
November 3, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
No shit from me. I agree. He was very funny. It made me sad to see the guy, who clearly is capable of so much better, peek out from behind all the filth and lies.
Not that Obama isn't capable of being very funny too, but I guess it's a good thing America isn't voting for who they would most like to hear jokes from.
November 3, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sho' with ya on the "filth and lies" part.
November 3, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I did not say he is honorable, decent, or worthy of our forgiveness.
I, for one, will never forgive him, nor will I ever forgive the right-wing for what they have done to our country. Based on how I've been feeling for the last several years, I think I will remain a hardcore liberal partisan for the rest of my life, which I never was until about 2002.
I said he is clearly capable of so much better; nothing more, nothing less.
November 3, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
McLame has nothing to reclaim.
He was never a decent, honorable, person. Read the Rolling Stone piece if you haven't already - he's worse than W.
November 3, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena:
Why didn't ANYONE in the MSM follow up on Rolling Stone? Seemed like a watershed story with several new revelations.
November 3, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn good question.
It seems the MSM would rather be "balanced" rather than truthful.
November 3, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Preview!
November 3, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was in Rolling Stone.
November 3, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, you're so right.
I don't get this piety towards "the real John McCain." If a man, in the most important act of his life, is an unrepentant scumbag -- then I figure he's a scumbag.
November 3, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena,
It's a matter of opinion. I've read that article twice and know McCain doesn't exactly have a proud history.
I DO NOT respect him at all for going against everything he is in a vain attempt to win, saying things he doesn't really believe, hiring those who ruined him in 2000 to lead his campaign. There are SO MANY reasons to not like who he is right now. I completely respect your feelings about that and agree with a lot of it.
HOWEVER, there still lingers the memories of who he is underneath the 2008 facade. I'm not bragging about meeting him, but I do have a good sense of about people when I meet them and my "Asshole Radar" is pretty strong. I genuinely liked meeting him and talking with him.
It just hurt me so much to see the man I felt sorry for, the man I respected, the man I actually told someone in 2000 I would vote for if he ever ran again, just go against everything he once stood for in order to win over the base of his party.
That's why I'm so strongly for Obama - the man is the genuine deal and has remained the same man today that he was 2 years ago. McCain had his chance...and he may very well have lost!
I know one day I'll like the man again.
But right now PRESIDENT OBAMA has a nice ring to it!!
November 3, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in agreement with you. I had a lot of respect for him in 2000 and was disappointed he dropped out so early. It would have been a difficult decision to pick between him and Gore back then. But now, I've lost any and all respect. Perhaps as you say, given time the respect will return, but its buried deep at the moment.
November 3, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Allowing his surrogates to call Obama a terrorist is un-American and unforgiveable. He also, by the way, very much wants you to forgive him. Sounds like you may already be in the process of that?
Remember that post, "Apology Not Accepted?"
Here, this may be it: http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/09/10/apology_not_accepted/
Buck up, eh?
November 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it the case that McCain has to keep plugging away at his base in order to help the folks further down the ticket by getting his bozos to the polls.
Pa was a 'maverick' decision (i.e. stoooooopid!)
November 3, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well now, Joe the Chicago, you're onto something here. The NYT today has an article about how McCain is getting his sense of humor back now that the campaign is nearly over:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/us/politics/03mccain.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
November 3, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain will give one of his fake apologies about getting caught up in the campaign and the MSM will swoon and all will be forgiven and they'll all climb back on the tire swing - he knows this, which is why he didn't give a damn about how low his campaign went.
November 3, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two words- deathbed conversion.
McCain will chalk it all up to "hey, it's just politics, have a sense of humor!" My suspicion is that Obama probably won't hold it against him.
It must suck for McCain to know that his political epitaph will now exclusively be how he was the bitter, angry old white dude who lost to the first black president. It's worse than being Stephen Douglass, in the historical sense.
November 3, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain in Penn is all about Murtha.
November 3, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
NBC First Read reports that Obama has led in 111 straigh polls they trust
November 3, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's how McCain wins - he takes Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, California, New York ... BWA-HA-HA! It's over folks. And McCain wasn't funny on SNL, he was creepy and pathetic.
November 3, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
ChicagoJoe
I'm from over the pond so I know far less about McCain than you folks do. However, for me he has cut a tragic figure during this election. He had a reputation for being a personable independent fellow and he sold out to an alleged Republican base which is execrable in its faux-Christianity and its blatant racism.
It would take a miracle/demonic intervention for him to win but let's face it he could easily have done so. The economy didn't help him but bad economic times often turn people to the right as it is seen as 'the safe pair of hands'. In a very short period of time McCain managed to both appear like a headless chicken on the biggest election issue (economics) and appoint a VP candidate who is already the laughing stock of the entire world.
I'm afraid he'll be remembered for this campaign. The left and centre will regard it with contempt while the right will see him as a loser.
Of course I'm assuming the American people 'do the right thing' in all of the above - it amazes me that even 40% of Americans would think that putting Palin that close to the Presidency is a good thing. Frankly our local far-right party - the BNP - regularly expels people like her for giving them a bad name!
November 3, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clutch:
Brilliant analysis. He was supposedly the "safe" choice and turned out to be the risky one. He is a degenerate gambler, the NY Times wrote about his all-night excursions to Fox Woods Indian casino in CT and his trips to the Bahamas. My guess is he saw himself losing and made a huge gamble with Palin due to the adrenaline rush of his gambling addiction.
November 3, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clutch:
Brilliant analysis. He was supposedly the "safe" choice and turned out to be the risky one. He is a degenerate gambler, the NY Times wrote about his all-night excursions to Fox Woods Indian casino in CT and his trips to the Bahamas. My guess is he saw himself losing and made a huge gamble with Palin due to the adrenaline rush of his gambling addiction.
November 3, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clutch:
Brilliant analysis. He was supposedly the "safe" choice and turned out to be the risky one. He is a degenerate gambler, the NY Times wrote about his all-night excursions to Fox Woods Indian casino in CT and his trips to the Bahamas. My guess is he saw himself losing and made a huge gamble with Palin due to the adrenaline rush of his gambling addiction.
November 3, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clutch,
I agree - McCain will be remembered for the version of himself he was in this campaign. So much of the vile, hurtful and just outright untrue bullshit he allowed to go out about Obama.
That's politics. But there once was a time I did respect the man - I really, really did want to vote for him in 2000 and hoped he would one day run again. But there was no way, no way in hell I would ever vote for him.
I cast my vote for Obama over a week ago and without a momen't hesitation. My excitement for McCain running again dwinded in the primaries and my voting Democratic was a given a loooooong time ago.
But there once was a time I respected McCain greatly! ONCE! I'm just hoping that respect comes back.
It all depends on how he treats a potential President named Barack Obama!
November 3, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure from your perspective, American voters look like Neanderthals compared to the Brits. After all, the Conservatives probably look like centrists do in the U.S. -- even your looney-tune Thatcher never undid socialized medicine -- and socialism isn't a dirty word to Labour (or at least it wasn't before Blair). And you have no religious right to speak of.
November 3, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I tend to disagree that McCain could have won this one. Bush and the Republican party has really screwed the pooch and the Republican brand has been badly damaged. Look at the results of the 2006 elections and all the Senate and Congressional races this year. The Republicans are getting tossed out in droves. This is a change election, and there's simply no way for any Republican candidate to claim the mantle of change.
November 3, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
More good stuff today from pollster.com on cellphone-only effects. For whatever reason, the effect appears to have expanded recently, and may be as much as 4%. Even half that would be enough to flip IN and MT. The full 4% would also flip GA and pull AZ to within about 1%.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/final_update_on_the_cell_phone.php
November 3, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
November 3, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
IS
November 3, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
AND FOREVER SHALL BE
November 3, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
THE LAST DAY OF
November 3, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
THE DARK AGES!
November 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are starting to roll into the 3BlueDudes.com Election Projection Database. We have 15 so far and tons of emails that more are coming. Of course, the DU Daily Widget was one of the first, and my friends, much appreciated.
After the election, we will assess, grade and rank these final projection based on accuracy and provide thos egrades and ranks for our 2012 election projection database. Stay tuned, as we get these final projections emailed to us we will be adding them.
When we munch the final projection sites (15 of them) here is what the Obama lead looks like:
Barack Obama: 354.9
John McCain: 182.4
If all you DUers don't mind, I will just post updated in this thread.
http://3bluedudes.com/2008-presidential-election/electi...
November 3, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bob Shrum just ROASTED this hackjob on MSNBC, it was CLASSIC.
November 3, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bob Shrum just ROASTED this hackjob on MSNBC, it was CLASSIC.
November 3, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Saw that. Beautiful. Shrum sounded like he was channeling alt.impeach.bush. He spanked her good. lol...
November 3, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I missed Shrum. But then, in his chosen profession, Shrum misses most everything.
November 3, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink