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TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Keeps Growing

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead is continuing to inch upwards in the daily tracking polls, undoing much of the progress that John McCain made about a week ago:

Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% lead from yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-44.2%, a lead of 7.3 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.


43 Comments

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MCCAINS GOT HIM RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS HIM!!!

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LOL, there's a very funny documentary waiting to be made about this election. The Republicans have been very generous in providing the material.

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But, but, but Mason-Dixon's Republican state polls bullshit sez...

McSame will still lose, even after they cook the numbers.

Barack the Vote!

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I apologize about having doubts about Ohio, Buckeye.

It's just that Michigan attitude coming out.

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Shorter Eric:

+10  =>  +09  Gallup
+05  =>  +05  Rasmussen
+09  =>  +11  ABC-WaPo
+07  =>  +05  Hot-Dog
+07  =>  +07  R2k
+05  =>  +06  ZZZogby

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The Boss is on CNN live right now before Obama speaks.

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Thanks for the heads-up!

Wow.  I just barely started my day here in CA, and already it's dark in OH!  The joys (?) of standard time!

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Go to www.cnn.com - Live from Ohio - The Boss and then Barack

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The boss is to introduce Barack, Michele and his 2 daughters...
It is going to be very emotional I guess:)


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Another fun fact -

In the RCP average for all 2008, there have been exactly 3 polls released that had McCain at or over 50% of the vote. 2 of them were from the same pollster. 2 of them were also from January.

Eric just showed us 6 over 50% for Obama from today.

Almost there.

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Is it me or do facts like that bring comfort to even the most worrisome of Democrats

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Eric, are you trying to lull the angsty elite liberals into a false sense of complacency? Shame on you!

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Practicing for Tuesday night:
YYYEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!

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McCain Voter Fraud Video out

oops sorry.

here it is:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGF-HEd6XnA&fmt=18

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It was an encouraging day canvassing here in west-central Florida. We knocked on doors of sporadic, NPA, and "other" voters.

The very good news is most of the NPA's have already voted for Obama or are committed to staying in line Tuesday to cast their ballots.

Also, the line to early vote was already snaking around the courthouse when we drove past it at noon to go to the canvassing staging area and was still snaking, in the rain, after our canvass.

The Obama team here is absolutely brilliant. If Florida is ever to turn blue, it's this election. And it will be a direct result of how smartly executed the effort has been to get out the vote. I can't imagine how future campaigns can top this one. It's just beautiful.

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When do the new PPP polls come out?

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John McCain talks disparagingly about Barack's faith in the American people being "vindicated" as though that means that Barack is not a true Patriot. In fact McCain is doing every low-class thing he can do to undermine the very process of Democracy. By searching for the most disgusting labels he can find, an applying them willy-nilly to Obama McCain shows himslef up as a desperate and unprincipled politician. He has no standards left.

He is funny on SNL, and that is the only thing left that humanizes him. He doesn't deserve a free pass after this is over. I hope he goes back to Arizona and barbecues himself into oblivion. At least he will not have had the opportunity to start more wars and kill more people in a desperate effort to prove himself relevant.

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But he isn't a fighter!
But he isn't experienced enough!
But he can't win white votes!
But he can't win the Latino vote!
But he can't win Big States!
But he can't win traditionally blue states!
But he can't win primaries!
But he can't win white collar votes!
But he can't win women!
But he can't win Florida or Ohio!
But he can't win in places like Virginia or Montana!
But he doesn't perform well in debates!
But he has a Wright problem!
But he has a Rezko problem!
But he has an Ayers problem!
But he's unelectable!
He's unelectable!!
HE'S UNELECTABLE!!!1!!1
GODDAMMIT, I TELL YOU HE'S UNEFFINGECTABLE!!!!!
GAGGAGGAGGGAAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

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Kind of weird how Florida is slipping away. Both RCP and Nate Silver had it colored blue for ever so long. Both show it today to be a toss-up, with Silver saying it's now only a 50/50 bet with the trend line pointing down. Well I guess we can do without Florida. I would just as soon NEVER see that state part of any Democratic game plan in the future. I cringe at the very names Miami-Dade and Orlando. To my ears, they sound like synonyms for heartbreak and mind-fuck respectively. Something tells me I'm going to regret saying that, but I'm just reporting a psychological fact about myself. Florida does not remind me of flowers.

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Don't count us out yet.

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I see that as of early this a.m. (11/3) Nate Silver has upgraded Obama's chances in Florida from 50/50 to 64/36.

I always said I loved Florida. Enlightened population. Sunny climate with lots of fun things to do. Wonderfully fragrant with flowers. Not to mention home to a Fountain of Youth. Ah Florida, my heart's desire.

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I don't think Florida is slipping away at all. He'll pick it up. For what it's worth, the Intrade value for Obama in FL has been going up quite a bit today and McCain has been tanking. It's 70 Obama and 32 McCain. So, people are definitely betting on an Obama victory there.

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Thank you!

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Stop worrying, we will eek out a close victory in Florida. It will be a tough race but we can eek out a victory there.

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If reports of late September regards methane in seawater along the northern coast of Russia bear out, that methane chimneys bubbling up from Clathrate seafloor depostis expand exponentially, then it may turn out that Florida will be under water ten years from now.

Check out: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/3647 published in the Baltimore Sun and authored by a federal geologist. It ought to scare the crap out of you.

Florida - the hanging chad of North America, the original dysfunction junction.

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Florida early voting, as of this morning:

Dem: (2008)45.5%, (2004)40.7%
Rep: (2008)37.6%, (2004)43.5%

en toto: 4,107,894 (Absentee 38.6%, In-person 61.4%).

In 2004, 7,640,319 total votes were cast (of all kind).

So, as of today, five percent more Dems have voted early in comparison to 2004 and six percent less Repugs have voted. Me thinks the writing is damn well on the wall.

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I've said his before when the handwringing starts at some small increase in McSlime's polling figures: forget the polls.

Far and away the best indicators of outcomes are the bookmakers. Good article here on why:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/the-most-accurate-electio_b_140181.html

Currently, Betfair lists Barack Obama as an overwhelming 1-7 favorite (paying $8 for a $7 winning bet). A John McCain win would pay $6.80 for every dollar bet. Bookmakers wouldn't offer those kind of odds on McSlime If they thought they'd have to pay out.

I won't be happy until Obama's being sworn in, but I reckon McCombover's goose is well and truly cooked. Here endeth the lesson.

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I had five quid on obama at 30-1 on betfair before the primaries started. I already traded out and contributed the profit to obama.

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He's toast.  Extra burnt.

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OT, on Meet the Press today John Kerry reportedly "called Lieberman his 'friend' who he'd like to see return to the Democratic party." At least this is what Time's summary of Sunday shows reported.
http://thepage.time.com/sunday-show-summary-for-november-2-2008/

So folks -- what do you think of rehabilitating Joe?

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Nah...would you trust an utter slimeball like Lieberputz? I wouldn't trust him to collect my dry-cleaning. The trouble with shifty turncoats like Liebershmuck is that they end up being mistrusted by both sides and rightly so. A scumbag who stabs his friends in the back once is more than likely to do it again. I think Joe the Joke AKA Droopy Dog, is a spent force. Good riddance.

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I think Joe LieberSchmuck will choose to remain with the Dem caucus, but he'll lose his Homeland-Security committee chairmanship.

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Never trust Traitor Joe. He's a scorpion, even if you offered him a free ride across the river, he'd sting you halfway across. Why? It's his nature.

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I'm going to take it as a favourable sign that Lewis Hamilton just became the first black man to ever win the Formula 1 World Championship.

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I really hope Obama's win will be a little more convincing than Lewis Hamilton's :) (he won by a single point and was down until the last corner of the race - super dramatic for sure)

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Vote vote vote

stay up and motivated.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxlZJOWSGJc

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Come on Florida!! We need you!! If there is a line, wait it out!! The country is counting on YOU!

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parentsagainstpalin.blogspot.com

–parents and guardians against palin unite!

(a non-partisan appeal)

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RE: Lieberman- Parade him shirtless down the Champs Elysee. He is so masochistically ingratiating that he'd probably enjoy it. He is so eager to humiliate himself--let him twist in the wind.

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Thank you to everyone for time volunteered, I am very grateful. Thank you for helping me stay upbeat too. Lastly, I think Lieberman is being kept close until we see if the magic number "60" can be reached, if not needed, he's done.

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MAC IS BACK .... Somewhere today McCain made that claim, over his left shoulder, as he said it Cindy's face said it all .... No no he's not.

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As for Lieberman his last election was as an Independent so (rather like Bernie) he basically gets to do what he wants. Just be thankful he isn't a VP nominee...

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