TPM Track Composite: Obama Leads by Over Seven Points
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead expanded slightly again today, as most pollsters show him pulling away from John McCain in the home stretch:
• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.1%, a lead of 7.1 points, compared to the 51.0%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Obama's lead also increased in yesterday's Composite, as well as in the one before that.
Let's see the lead jump when people hear how Sarah Palin deals with heads of state.
http://www.justiciers.tv/medias/audio/SarahPalin.mp3
November 1, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just listened to that and was coming here to point it out. It was hilarious until I realized that this woman still has a chance to be the next VP.
November 1, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't it be a sweet thing if that lead in the polls just kept expanding over the next few days - another break with the history of recent presidential campaigns : : :
November 1, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
O god! When am I going to get past the point where good news scares the shit out of me?
November 1, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Florida too close to call? Hey, look to the left, that idiot Goldfarb.
November 1, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look to the right.
November 1, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tuesday night, by around 8 pm your time (maybe a little earlier).
November 1, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, based upon calculations I did last night, based upon a handy map of poll-closing times I found (linked from fivethirtyeight or election.princeton.edu, I think, tho I can't seem to find it now), and making due allowances for people standing in line at closing time being allowed to vote no matter how long it takes, my guess is that he'll hit 270 electoral votes sometime between 9:30 and 10:00.
The weird thing is that because of quirks in closing times in some eastern and midwestern states and the fact that some of those gigantic states with 90 degree angles in their borders only have about thirty people in them, we'll probably be getting decisions in from some states in the Mountain Time Zone before Obama cinches the win.
For example, polls don't close in New York until 9:00, and if there's two things New Yorkers know how to do, its stay up late and wait in a line.
November 1, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wednesday
November 1, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am right there with ya.....
November 2, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shorter Eric:
+09 => +10 Gallup
+04 => +05 Rasmussen
+09 => +09 ABC-WaPo
+07 => +07 Hot-Dog
+06 => +07 R2k
+07 => +05 ZZZogby
Yep. The prophesied tightening is upon us. Just look at Zogby.
If my belt tightened that way, my pants would fall down.
November 1, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
BREAKING:
Sarah Palin is pranked--extensively--by a false French President "Nicholas Sarkozy."
As the call becomes more and more farcial and unbelievable--as the "President", swears, makes double entendres, and sings, all in an exaggerated French accent, she continues. She never discovers it until it is revealed:
headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/11/shes-ready.html
Listen, and decide how she might respond to a false Vladimir Putin.
November 1, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's up 10 in Gallup.
I'm still convinced that the polls do not reflect what turnout is going to be.
I guess I'm not so much scared as just waiting for it to sink in. I'm excited.
November 1, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truly, I am hoping for a landslide, which I think is possible if people do show up to vote. But I will be happy just to hear President-elect Obama.
November 1, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.tindeck.com/audio/my/wwdo/SarahPalin
Faster Palin prank link above: And per Politico below:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/Palin_responds_to_spoof_Cest_la_vie_.html
The prankster talked hunting ("I just love killing those animals."), and Palin said she was a "careful" shot in contrast to Dick Cheney. He also made a reference she appeared to miss to a porn movie in the conversation. He said he could see Belgium from his house, described "my special American adviser Johny Halliday," a French singer, and referred to Canadian singer Stef Carse as Canada's prime minister, as Palin continued the conversation until he explained it was a prank.
November 1, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it that they're in Canada.
She's asking in That Voice* for their call numbers at the end and I can tell she's pissed. I kept thinking - ha ha ha ha ha - they're in Canada, bitch. Let's see what you can do to get them in trouble or fired -
*That Voice is the same tone she used when an interviewer quoted someone who had said among other things that she was stupid. She got a seriously pissed and ballcutting tone when she asked the interviewer: Who said that?
November 1, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got three fourths of the way thru the phone call and had to quit...starting having GRS seizures (gag reflex syndrome).
November 1, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poor Sarah, she is just clueless. This is really embarrassing.
I was born and raised in France, I live in San Francisco.
I can tell you Johnny Holiday is a celebrity in France. He has been singing for over 50 years, so he sure is not American nor he is an advisor of Sarkozy.
But the more you listen, the more it gets embarrassing. No head of state in any country would behave that way!!!
November 1, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I know - "give her a big ol hug" and some of her other blather; it's hard to believe she isn't pwning them.
She's really that bad, guys. She really is.
November 1, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always thought they had some kind of more specialized protocol for communicating. Not just calling up on a cell phone. I would think they at least would track caller id, etc. Maybe that's just for the others, you know, the non-Palins, that is the non-Joe Sixpacks.
November 1, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think one of the biggest parts of the joke is that her colossal ego lets her believe that the President of France would just casually give her call.
November 1, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Competency and vetting is not in the GOP playbook.
November 1, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kos has a quick link to the Nailin Palin prank call.
November 1, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice to see Obama steady.
November 1, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it is now being reported on Politico, and New York times.
There is no way that President Sarkozy would call her to start with.
I don't know if you remember but when Senator Obama met Sarkozy in France, they had a press conference, and Sarkozy was full of praise for Senator Obama.
Sarah is just clueless, and it is embarrassing for her and her advisers. The advisers should know better.
November 1, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
They will have a partnership that will definitely aid this country globally for sure.
November 1, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fake Sarkozy: "I joost lurve killngue ze animerls. Taking away zer life is so merch fun!"
Snow-Plough Barbie: "Hahahahahahahahahahahah..."
Please God, make this revolting woman go away.
November 1, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, gang .. playing Crank Yankers with Palin is like shooting fish in a barrel. It's stupid, juvenile and has a potential to backfire. Enough of the country already knows the truth about this nitwit; cruelty doesn't help. JMHO.
November 1, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-signed.
November 1, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a look at how the reality-deficient world sees things:
http://www.AudacityofHypocrisy.com/2008/11/01/gop-internal-polls-nj-ca-mi-pa-show-possible-landslide-for-mccain/
"GOP Internal Polls (NJ, CA, MI, PA) Show Possible Landslide for McCain"
November 1, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever helps them sleep at night. They won't be able to spin this landslide thouh, no matter how hard they try.
November 1, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have him up by 7 percentage points in my composite:
http://demockracy.com/tracking-poll-update-3-days-to-go/
The movement definitely seems to have reversed itself in the last couple days. Yes, I think McCain probably will gain slightly this weekend, but I highly doubt it will be anywhere near enough!
November 1, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
All day this Sunday fundies across the nation will be bombarded with sermons telling them that vetoing for republickers is doing God's work...
Fundies do what they are told...
They will turn out in their usual large numbers...
I am not convinced that we will win... a combination of our apathy and their fear could still give the election to McBush....
November 2, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget defeat from the jaws of viictory, Democrats are masters at snatching Depressionfrom the jawws of happiness. Calm the hell down bro, we are working hard and we will run through that finish line.
November 2, 2008 7:47 AM | Reply | Permalink