TPM Track Composite: Obama Approaching 52%
Here's our final daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Many national polls have coalesced around a projected 52% popular-vote share for Barack Obama, and it shows in our composite:
• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 54%-43% Obama lead yesterday
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.9%-44.3%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to the 51.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday.
Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last five consecutive Composites.
Most elections conclude with a tightening of the race, as the underdog picks up some final bit of steam. But this one seems to have been an exception -- McCain began closing the gap, but then Obama just pulled away all over again.
One more important poll is due tomorrow. We'll be live-blogging it when it comes out.
It's just weird to move from death of his grandmother to poll numbers.
Life is brutal sometimes, but I guess it must go on.
November 3, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it is and yes it does.
And every year older you are, the more people leave until you're down to a handful of people.
Don't mean to be depressing - it's just what I've seen. It kind of makes it easier - I think - to leave the earth yourself.
And it also reminds us that life does go on and should. The last thing the dead would want would be for the rest of to stop living.
November 3, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
He knew this was coming. She likely told him she'd watch him and always be with him. Which she will.
November 3, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. And he'll know it.
November 3, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there is such a thing as life after death, maybe she can keep an eye on things from the other side and call for avenging angels to smite any GOP dirty tricksters who try to steal the election.
November 3, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do my best to live in doubt and mystery because that's really all we have - we don't know.
I do know my father or some sense of him did make itself known to me when my mother was dying - it was unmistakable.
I have no idea what that means. I don't contemplate what it might mean very much - I just know it happened.
November 3, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is exactly why his visit was so very important for both of them. Obama feels her with him and it gives him great strength. His Grandmother feels his presence and knows in her heart he will be the next president .... this allows her to pass on peacefully. She may not be on earth but she will be looking down proudly when he is sworn in!
November 4, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's statements at tonight's rally.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5oMY6_kCoo
November 3, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are very dry, Eric.
I think you probably have been going over my head for months.
;)
November 3, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could the "important poll" be one that polls 140 million voters instead of only 500-1,000??? :-)
November 3, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that is funny. I used to think I was quick--but I didn't get it completely until I read your post, Tena. Oh well.
November 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dehydrated babies are breaking for McCain.
November 3, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dehydrated babies with calloused mouths.
November 3, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bottled hot water, STAT!
November 3, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Help needed- I will be at the rally tomorrow (stifles shit-eating grin), and I was wondering if anyone is aware of any websites that I can use on my mobile phone web which will be updating the election?
Final tally- Obama 52%, McCain 46%, others 2%.
November 3, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go to 538. Look in the left hand column. There's a place to sign up for text messages:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
November 3, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
TheraP, you rock! Thanks for the tip. I'm in the same boat as Gooner, and have a pretty low-tech phone (no web surfing for me -- text msgs are the perfect solution).
Gooner, maybe I'll see you there. ;-)
-- ARG
November 3, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
May the rally be everything you want it to be and more. Think of us. Make a TPM sign!
November 3, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hoping the final margin is 55-44, but I know that's not going to happen.
Everybody? I know this will sound silly, but if you haven't voted, please remember to vote tomorrow. I hear there's some sort of election thingy being scheduled.
November 3, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you sure? Republicans have been telling me that the election is on Wednesday.
November 3, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah that's why were going fishing tonight and tomorrow!
November 3, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the election was Wed Nov 5!?!?!?! Those sly, fun-loving Rebuplicans almost pulled a fast one! Although, now I'm really feeling the pressure. Who should I vote for? Any advice? Thanks!
November 3, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
That one?
November 3, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That one?
November 3, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who's running this year again?
November 3, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Running for what? I thought the marathon was yesterday.
November 3, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Ohio orange again on the tracking map? Obama's ahead in two of the three polls. Shouldn't it be at least light blue?
November 3, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the anti-Ohio conspiratorial bullshit.
They know I take it personally and they're trying to yank my chain.
WE WILL WIN OHIO!
November 3, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at when he pulled away. It was the half hour on tv!
November 3, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? And here I thought that there was a very real risk in him doing that...that he might be overreaching....saturating us too much....blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. You know what I wish for? Besides an Obama landslide? I'd like one, just one, prominent political pundit to admit publicly "Hell, 3/4 of what we say is total guesswork, and my, haven't WE been wrong during this election!"
November 3, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
But then the secret would be out! They're no more prescient - and likely less - than the combined wisdom of the netroots!
November 3, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
One day to a new beginning
Raise the flag of freedom high!
Every man will be a king
Every man will be a king
There's a new world for the winning
There's a new world to be won
Do you hear the people sing?
...
Tomorrow we'll discover
What our God in Heaven has in store!
One more dawn
One more day
One day more
"From Les Miserable"
This is how I feel about tomorrow.
I pray with all my heart that Barrack will be elected president of the United States
November 3, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
It almost fits with his grandmother's death....
November 3, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a question for poll experts/statisticians. Last 24-48 hours of polling seem to show BO increasing overall national lead, but race tightening in certain battlegrounds -- eg. FL, NC, OH. Rough glance suggests a correlation between states in which we see "tightening" and states with heavy early voting; and we know early voting looks very good for the good guys based on party reg. Is the "tightening" bogus because it reflects those who's voted early being less willing to respond to pollsters (whether because they feel they're done or because stating an actual vote feels more private than stating an intention)? If so, that'd negate any possible movement for JM.
November 3, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to lay this on everyone, but this has to be seen to be believed. Below is a comment thread at No Quarter:
Comment by OBAMA IS A FRAUD | 2008-11-03 17:20:42
This is all BS I predict. I’m sorry to say it if she really has passed away but I don’t buy it. McCain is showing gaining in the polls, the coal story and giving McCain the finger story come out and then PRESTO we should all vote for Obama because his granny died. What a load of crap. Something, as usual, doesn’t add up here.
Reply to this comment
Comment by Bill Ayers | 2008-11-03 17:23:18
there are no coincidences in Chicago politics…
scary times dude…
there is something creepy about Barack and how he treats his family… why didn’t the children see grandma? why didn’t they go see this “rock” of the family? not on vacation and not when she was dying?
something is creepy here…
Barack has proven that he is a devious evil little shit…
just ask his Aunti Z.
a. hillary
b. mccain
america first!
Reply to this comment
Comment by rw | 2008-11-03 17:27:05
Funny you should say this, the person who came to mind when I read she passed on today (RIP)was Putin.
Reply to this comment
Comment by hadenough | 2008-11-03 17:25:27
I don’t. A metaphore maybe. obama’s 44 year old Nevada state director died this morning also. obama’s campaign dies on the last day.
November 3, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you wash your mouse after you go there? If not, you could be transmitting their diseases back to us.
November 3, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd rahter not see you copy and paste this B.S. I'm not blaming you, but sometimes it's better to ignore.
November 3, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"hadenough"? Seriously? The creepy little creepazoid who used to post around here? Nice.
Those commenters are sick fucks. Please excuse my language, but that's about the only thing that can be said.
November 3, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to lay this on everyone, but this has to be seen to be believed. Below is a comment thread at No Quarter:
Comment by OBAMA IS A FRAUD | 2008-11-03 17:20:42
This is all BS I predict. I’m sorry to say it if she really has passed away but I don’t buy it. McCain is showing gaining in the polls, the coal story and giving McCain the finger story come out and then PRESTO we should all vote for Obama because his granny died. What a load of crap. Something, as usual, doesn’t add up here.
Reply to this comment
Comment by Bill Ayers | 2008-11-03 17:23:18
there are no coincidences in Chicago politics…
scary times dude…
there is something creepy about Barack and how he treats his family… why didn’t the children see grandma? why didn’t they go see this “rock” of the family? not on vacation and not when she was dying?
something is creepy here…
Barack has proven that he is a devious evil little shit…
just ask his Aunti Z.
a. hillary
b. mccain
america first!
Reply to this comment
Comment by rw | 2008-11-03 17:27:05
Funny you should say this, the person who came to mind when I read she passed on today (RIP)was Putin.
Reply to this comment
Comment by hadenough | 2008-11-03 17:25:27
I don’t. A metaphore maybe. obama’s 44 year old Nevada state director died this morning also. obama’s campaign dies on the last day.
November 3, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not certainly twice.
November 3, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry about that, certainly didn't mean to do it twice but I think we all know the crap that's going to start on Wednesday is going to make the Clinton years seem like a cakewalk.
November 3, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not this time. We are taking the senate to 60 and the House to 260. Manmotherfuckingdate!
November 3, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wednesday?
Goodness, but you're optimistic today, aren't you??
November 3, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
CrabbyCrat no longer! You bet I'm optimistic. I feel this deep in my bones! With Kerry I was frantic with desperate hope. With the Big O, it's just a great big universe-sized Ohmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm--Ohhmmmmmmmmmm--Ohhmmhmhmhmhmhmhm.
Yeah. It's happening. Our whole neighborhood will erupt tomorrow night. Bangin' pans. Hootin' and hollerin' an' runnin' round in our jammies. Oh yeah!
November 3, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops. Sorry CT. You were talkin' to that cool dude Age in the sunglasses.
Age, they may bleat like sheared sheep but they won't be able to sway any votes, so let 'em bla-a-a-a-a-a-ather on!
November 3, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
No problems.
November 3, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a question for poll experts/statisticians. Last 24-48 hours of polling seem to show BO increasing overall national lead, but race tightening in certain battlegrounds -- eg. FL, NC, OH. Rough glance suggests a correlation between states in which we see "tightening" and states with heavy early voting; and we know early voting looks very good for the good guys based on party reg. Is the "tightening" bogus because it reflects those who's voted early being less willing to respond to pollsters (whether because they feel they're done or because stating an actual vote feels more private than stating an intention)? If so, that'd negate any possible movement for JM.
November 3, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't sweat it. The "tightening" is probably mostly an artifact. Different polls have different methodologies for estimating likely voters, and these lead to systematic biases or "house effects". If a slew of polls come out from one or more pollsters with "house effects" in one direction, they can shift the average. State polls are particularly susceptible to this since they are more often conducted by groups that conduct only a few polls.
People get way to worked up over minuscule shifts in the polls.
November 3, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what I say to those folks, Age?
Tomorrow the United States of America is going to elect a black man POTUS. And I truly feel sorry for anyone who isn't going to appreciate what that means.
November 3, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, this is interesting - I wonder how many of these were Democratic registrations!
http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=7779138&version=7&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.2.1
November 3, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
None.
This is GOTV information, not voter registrations.
I'd say they likely were Democratic GOTV efforts though since there apparently is NOT a republican GOTV effort this time around.
November 3, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a dose of humor to relieve the election-eve tension, check out this poll at www.SportsFanLive.com, and vote for the nickname Chris Berman should give the candidates when they appear on Monday Night Football Tonight. Pick your own nickname and have a good laugh here:
www.sportsfanlive.com
November 3, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops, forgot html. Hope it works this time.
For a dose of humor to relieve the election-eve tension, check out this poll at www.SportsFanLive.com, and vote for the nickname Chris Berman should give the candidates when they appear on Monday Night Football Tonight. Pick your own nickname and have a good laugh here:
http://www.sportsfanlive.com
November 3, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
How much of this can be assigned to bandwagon jumping?
Although I can hardly imagine any last minute undecideds, I am quite certain there are a few folks on the very periphery, who haven't got a political bone in their body but who want to back a winner, and enjoy a party, so they will vote for the percieved winner.
November 3, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it chilling that 40-49% of the American voting public would vote for McCain/Palin.
Just blows my mind. Spooky shit out there.
November 3, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
No offense, but people who constantly harp on the minority spook me.
Instead of getting scared of the 40% +/- of the voting public who disagrees with you, why don't people concentrate on the fact that the majority are in agreement with us?
I guess it's that half full thing -but it mystifies me.
November 3, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are people out there that think people of color are less than. There are people out there who think Obama is a muslim, a good percentage of them in Texas.
When the minority cannot find a rationale basis for their beliefs, I find it spooky. I am offended that you would suggest my comment is "harping," as I believe it is the first time I've expressed that opinion.
You can think of that as a glass half full position if you want. I find it spooky. You want to give them a pass and a great big hug, that's your business.
I've had enough of their shit, and all I have to do is recall the last eight years to justify my position. The 40% will get no quarter from me.
P.S. Why would you begin a sentence with "no offense," if no offense is implied?
November 3, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where you get off telling me that I am greeting bigots with a hug I don't know, but step the fuck off right now and stay away from me.
November 3, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
My, my, aren't you the narcissistic princess!
Stay away from you? This is a computer, no one is near you. If by "stay away" you mean ignore you, you can count on it.
In the short time I've been reading and posting on this site I've learned your dress size, your occupation, that you profess not to drink and that your dealer is unreliable. All very illuminating.
Time to chill, go find your pipe.
November 3, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I called the California Republican Party to express in the most polite way possible that filing a suit on the very day Obama's Grandmother died was just so disheartening and wrong. Before I could get more than that out, the woman told me that "if you people want this guy...Obama...you can have him. Hitler fooled a nation. God bless you."
Click.
Somewhere in there is the answer to your question.
November 3, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a hunch they aren't going to be good losers.
November 3, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, that's deplorable.
November 3, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls point to an EV Landslide. The Big Blue Wave will flip any state with less than a 10-pt edge for McWedgie. 39 states. 468 EVs. The more desperate their braying, the more certain their defeat.
November 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's an amazing convergence.
November 3, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama 318 to McCain 220. I get there by giving Obama Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania. McCain wins Ohio and Indiana.
November 3, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama 375. You read it here first.
-- ARG
November 3, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
FYI, the Wright ad is being shown nationally. I am in San Francisco, and this is second spot within 30 minutes. I am currently watching MSNBC.
And some pundits want me to believe that McWar is an honorable person! I don't think so...
November 3, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
McWedgie is an underwear sniffer.
November 3, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
They may as well go national with Rev. Wright now, because after tomorrow they'll never have another chance. Rev. Wright is that last desperate gasp of a sick and dying political party. Farewell you pathetic and desperate people.
November 3, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep seeing here in FL too.....on MSNBC all afternoon!
I am sick to death of seeing/hearing it!
November 3, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Getting warmed up for tomorrow:
YYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!
November 3, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yo, what up with the truncated yeeehaw?
November 3, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nodes are in an uproar. Nodes for McCain?
November 3, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who wants to cry along with me and these people?:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/tears-for-obama-photos_n_140582.html
IF you can a dry eye, you are heartless.
;)
November 3, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I liked number 6
November 3, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have never spent more of my soul, or cried more in any other campaign in my life. Go go go!
BTW we are at the campsite now and waiting for the entrants!
November 3, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is something so moving about seeing a mature man cry like that - you can almost read the heartbreak of a lifetime in those pictures.
I've been crying off and on from the very beginning of this campaign, too, and I am going to crash and burn tomorrow night - I bet I get incoherent -
and I don't drink anymore.
November 3, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aww Tena. Thanks for the link. The three pictures of the man at Times Square on Nomination Night sent my heart soaring and tears flowing. I feel so blessed to be a part of this.
Going for my last step in getting certified as a van driver for wheel chair users. What a glorious day is coming. May I have the grace to spread love in its wake.
mOtOcrat
November 3, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever.
If you want to worry about some pissed off and bitter bitch who knows her candidate is going to lose tomorrow - be my guest. Yeah it's reprehensible - that's why they're losing.
America is in the process of rejecting the haters. Let them crawl back under their rocks.
November 3, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was supposed to be a reply to Bobbie1.
Dunno what happened.
November 3, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
under 2% chance of mccain victory now on 538:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-113-pm-edition.html
November 3, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I"m watching Obama live on MSNBC in NC - talking about Toot.
November 3, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard sadness in his voice.
November 3, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was very moving and well done. I am watching it on www.cnn.com
November 3, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver has McCain's chances a 1.9% now!
November 3, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
you cut me deep, shrek. you cut me real deep.
(look about 5 posts above yours)
November 3, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
hehe, sorry.
November 3, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
hehe, sorry.
November 3, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
hehe, sorry.
November 3, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
hehe, sorry.
November 3, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to be nervous as hell until it is 0%.
November 3, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second.
November 3, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOL!!!
Yeah, I will too - but that's awfully funny when it's less than 2%.
God Democrats are jumpy after these two elections. whew.
November 3, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If God didn't want me to be nervous on election night he wouldn't have invented all the booze I am going to be consuming.
November 3, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, implying that he has ANY chance to me is a lot like watching the World Series of Poker, when someone is down to a one-card out, they have 2%.
Thinking about McCain hitting an inside straight on the river is nauseating.
November 3, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
less than 2.0%, oh my, this must hurt!!!
One day more, one day more for a better world!
November 3, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I assume the Wright ad will be on Monday Night Football since the Redskins are playing - big Virginia audience. I'll give it a pass myself.
But I'm just as glad they are playing the Wright card so they can't later use their "restraint" as an excuse for losing.
November 3, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was it?
November 3, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was it?
November 3, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was it?
November 3, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dixville Notch NH goes for Obama. It votes for a Democrat in presidential election for the first time in history.
November 4, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
correction. Humphrey may have won here before (in 1968). So this may not be the first time for a Democrat, but still a win for Obama (15-6 out of 21 total votes :)
November 4, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shout out to anyone in LA, come out to the Sunset-Gower Studios tomorrow. We're doing GOTV phonebanking to battlegrounds from 6am to 9pm. GO OBAMA! I've held back all year, but I'm so F'ING PSYCHED!
November 4, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
A little votin' music -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgECKj9LSH4
November 4, 2008 6:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
A little votin' music -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgECKj9LSH4
November 4, 2008 6:40 AM | Reply | Permalink