« Emanuel Spokesperson Denies He's Accepted Chief Of Staff ... And Other Transition Notes | Home | Obama's Win: A Big Defeat For GOP Militarism And Jingoism »

The Latest Senate Map: More Dem Gains Still Possible

So here's the latest on the Senate map: We already know the Dems have picked up a minimum of five seats, but there are still four races that could go either way, with one of them leaning in the Democratic direction.

Here are the four outstanding races:

In Alaska, GOP incumbent Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens may have confounded the polls that showed him losing by a landslide -- he's now narrowly ahead 99% of the vote counted, and he is now saying it's almost impossible for his Dem opponent to win.

Forget about the Bradley Effect -- we're dealing here with the Stevens Effect: An unwillingness of poll respondents to admit to a pollster that they're going to vote for the convicted felon. This one seems to be tilting towards the GOP.

In Georgia, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss appears headed to a December runoff against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss came out ahead of Martin, but seems to be so tantalizingly short of his true goalpost of 50% plus one: With 96% reporting, Chambliss has 49.9%, Martin 46.7%, and the Libertarian candidate has 3.4%.

Either Chambliss has reached the threshold to avoid a runoff, in which case he's re-elected outright, or he goes into a runoff where he would have to be rated as the initial favorite.

In the Minnesota Senate race, where GOP incumbent Norm Coleman has a lead of just a few hundred votes against Al Franken, this one is going to a recount. That process itself could take several weeks, so we may not get a true verdict on this race until some time in December.

This one is a real tossup, and there is a precedent for Senate recounts changing the initial outcome in a close race -- that exact thing happened in a key Senate race in 2000, in Washington State.

In the current vote count in Oregon, where all balloting is done by mail, incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith has a very narrow lead over Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. However, Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes points out that many of the outstanding votes are from the Portland and Eugene areas, which are expected to heavily favor Merkley.

It might take another few days to get this thing counted, but the conventional wisdom in the Oregon press seems to be that Merkley will eventually pull ahead. Of the four races listed here, this one presents the most optimistic outlook for the Democrats.

In the highly unlikely scenario that the Democrats were to sweep all four of these races, they would then reach that magic number of 60 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman. But don't expect that to happen.

Late Update: Oregon's top newspaper has projected Merkley the winner over Smith. So that's one more Democratic pick-up.


46 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic
In the Minnesota Senate race... this one is going to a runoff.

Should be recount.

user-pic

Jinx!

user-pic
...just a few hundred votes against Al Franken, this one is going to a runoff.

Correction: it's going to be a recount, not a runoff.

user-pic

But it should be an instant runoff.

user-pic

Why on earth is it taking so long to count Oregon's votes? Only 69% so far.

user-pic

Mail in ballots (the entire electorate) postmarked by yesterday are still valid.

user-pic

I was wrong. That is Washington state. I can't explain Oregon (correctly), but it must have something to do with verfiying the mail-in ballots, or something.

user-pic

Even though Oregon is "mail in", one can still deliver the ballot to a designated drop-off by 8:00pm of election day.

If a voter uses the mail, it had to be mailed by Friday, but many Oregonians, especially in urban areas, still wait 'til the last minute, then drop off their ballot. All those ballots have to be opened and verified before they're put into the computer.

In small population rural areas things go quickly. Urban areas, not so much.

But at least there are no lines...

user-pic

Wait a minute . . . I remember falling asleep last night . . . is all of this a dream or sumpin'?
:-P

user-pic

Ah, a W.C. Fields aficionado.

user-pic

Boy, talk about déjà vu all over again:  2000 mini-redux in MN.

Went to bed with Al Franken trailing by 6000 votes and woke up to find that margin in the hundreds and a weeks-long recount looming.  In 2000 I went to bed thinking Dubya had done it, only to find it virtually tied the next morning.

user-pic

Wow.....you went to bed with Al Franken?

I'm surprised we haven't heard more about that. ;^)

user-pic

I think Obama's win being a foregone conclusion early effected the Stevens race because electing him now would give the Republican voters another candidate in a months time when he steps down or is forced out. If Palin can run for the Senate seat while remaining Governor, I think she'll do that. However I don't think she'll step-down to run, even if she is guarenteed the Republican spot in the battle.

user-pic

Hmm. Interesting.

user-pic

OT,,,,,, Obama, a politician you can follow to hell and back.

user-pic

Word.


And totally OT - man is it snowing here now and it's sticking. This is a real snow -

user-pic

Been snowing here in SLC all day and it looks like it's about 4 inches deep now. You know, we're going to drive Frog Leg crazy if we manage to get another weather blog going. . .

;-)

user-pic

Hee hee!

But it's fun, cause so it's so easy. lol

user-pic

Stevens Effect is most likely an actual phenomenon. But what can one expect from a state that has a separatist party as a viable political power. Stevens is the guy who brought in the bacon from DC. I'm sure there are a few people up there who are embarrassed at what the spotlight has shown about their state. But from my experience, many of those who choose to live up there could care less what the lower 48 thinks of them.

user-pic

There's part of me that would like us to fall short of the 60 target so to make Lieberman irrelevant. Take him to the woodshed rather than make him one of the most important politicians in the country.

user-pic

If you are interested on what is happening in Oregon. I recently got this e-mail from an old friend who is working on the Gordon Smith campaign, his name is Richard Krikava.

------------
Subject: for all of those who are wondering...

...if I still have a job, I am too...still.

As of 12:15 pm today, Gordon is ahead by 2,700 and change. Multnomah county (very liberal and very populated) still has a bunch of ballots that need to be counted (delayed because of a flood in their basement-level counting office).

Clackamas County (South East Portland into the mountains area) is having significant counting problems because the ballots are too large for their machines - go figure. That'll take a day or two to sort out. Clack usually favors Gordon; then again, so does Washington County...and we're losing that by 4,700 votes (97% reported).

Marion, Lane, Jackson, and a few other counties have yet to fully count their ballots, and the late votes in those counties are surging toward Gordon.

The big question is, will all those other counties late votes out weigh the remaining votes from Multnomah County (currently running 60%-30% for the other guy)?

Won't know for a while, I'm afraid.

- Rich

user-pic

Blue Oregon is doing a good job with keeping the numbers up-to-date. For those interested in the OR-Sen race watch this thread:

http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/11/waiting-on-mult.html

user-pic

There was some sort of computer crash this morning in Eugene - that's delaying the count here.

user-pic

Al Franken, please. Coleman is horrible.

user-pic

Just got back from Chicago.

Holy shit. Words cannot begin to describe the experience and atmosphere in Grant Park last night. Simply incredible.

Bravo to all of you who helped make this possible.

user-pic
user-pic

Regarding Alaska, I read in a news story today that given the slim margin between the candidates, the state's 40,000 absentee ballots have now been brought into play.... so it's not over until it's over. Dem's getting 60's still possible in my book!!!

user-pic

A bit OT, but I think the Bradley effect did come into play in Virginia and North Carolina. I cannot see any other reasonable explanation for the huge disparity between convincing Democratic Senate victories and Obama's razor-thin margins in these two states. While canvassing on Sunday, I encountered a few "undecided" Democrats. I didn't think too much of it at the time, but it's now clear to me that these were "Reagan" Dems who couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black man for president but did vote for Hagan and Warner.

user-pic

I don't see that as Bradley effect, but simple ticket splitting. This might be due to racism, but who knows.

The polls in boths states on the Presidential race were pretty accurate. VA final poll avg 6%, actual result 5%. NC final poll avg 1%, actual 0.5%.

One thing I found interesting is that Obama did better in Tennessee than the Democrat running against Lamar Alexander for Senate. Obama lost by 15% but got lots of votes from folks who also voted for Lamar since he won by 31%.

user-pic

I think you could chalk that up to Alexander being a incumbent and reasonably popular, not anything out of the ordinary about the Obama vote. My guess there is that Alexander just pulled more D votes than Obama could pull R votes. I think exit polls showed 95% rate of Republican votes for McCain statewide and about a 20% Democrat for McCain. Dems in TN tend to vote both parties, Republicans on the other hand, not so much.

user-pic

For those watching Oregon, trends in the Multnomah county count are such that Merkley should pull ahead statewide for good within the next hour or two. The uncounted vote in Multnomah alone is enough to do it, as it is going 2-1 for Merkley. As of 4:17 pm PST, the oregonlive.com website had him trailing Smith by just 1238 votes. There's a nice map of counties there that shows Smith's counties just about done counting, and the blue counties with many thousands yet to count (mouse over the map for details).

http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html

At 2:53 pm, it was 6724; at 2:59 pm, it was 3483.

I believe calling it for Merkley at this point would not be out of line.

user-pic

Merkley just pulled ahead in Oregon Senate election.

He's ahead by 382 votes now. Still only 62% counted in Multnomah County (Portland). Looks very good for a Dem pickup at this point.

http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html

Now if we could only get rid of Coleman. I wish we had runoffs in Minnesota.

user-pic

Merkley has taken a 400-vote lead with the 5 o'clock tally from Multnomah. There are 125,000 ballots left to count there. If 120,000 have Senate votes, Merkley should net +45,000. That will be enough to offset any losses elsewhere. I'll call it if nobody else will. Jeff Merkley has been elected!

user-pic

It seems The Oregonian has called it for Merkley, though I can find no article to accompany the headline:

http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html

Sweet!

user-pic

The Oregonian called the race, at 5:27pm PST, for Merkley.
http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html

user-pic

Yep! KGW-TV just called it for Merkley, too!

We did it!!!! Yes!

user-pic

*Sound of cork popping on a bottle of a nice 2007 Yamhill Valley Oregon Pinot Noir*

Cheers!

user-pic

Yes. its great news.

user-pic

Anybody know how provisional ballots and mail-in/absentee ballots (postmarked prior to Nov. 4) factor in to the recount in MN? I have read that in some states provisional ballots only get counted in recount scenarios...

user-pic

Found this link explaining the MN recount rules:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/how-does-a-minnesota-recount-work/

Doesn't address provisional/mail-in ballots however.

user-pic

I'm not sure they have mail-in/absentee ballots or provisionals. I believe they have same-day polling place registration, so no need.

user-pic

You are correct, Minnesota does not have any provisional ballots. Anyone not correctly registered can, with ID or a Voucher, register at the polls on election day.

There are also no outstanding absentee ballots. Absentee ballots are accepted up till election day, sorted by precinct, and delivered to the precinct to be counted with the on site ballots.

This Year Minnesota allowed for those resident outside the US to vote electronically using either E-Mail or Fax. This applied to both military and civilian Minnesotans outside the US. They were able to register, request ballots by E-Mail, and then either download them, print them out, and fax them back -- or vote on line, with the ballots printed out at the Sec. of State's office and delivered to the voter's precinct.

Minnesota's Recount Process is all in state law, not in administrative law by the Secretary of State. It is highly specific, most of it over the years has been tested in court (we have lots of recounts of local elections), and until the process is complete, there is little involvement of the courts. For this, we can thank the recount of a Governor's race in 1962-63 between Anderson and Rolvaag, that lasted till the middle of March, that eventually involved every court you ever heard of, and was eventually resolved by a state-wide recount. The upshot of this was a determination by the Legislature to write an exceptionally clear recount law. That was done in the mid-60's. Then we reformed the rest of our election process in the mid to late 80's, which among other things gave us one balloting system state wide -- and while doing that they also updated the recount laws.

What's missing in the linked description, is the role of the county and state canvas boards. Any question as to voter intent on a ballot is first reviewed by the county canvas board, can be appealed to the state canvas board, and only then on to the State Supreme Court, with is the final appeal.

I suspect most of the re-count will be by hand count, and there are 2.9 million ballots. It will not begin till at least the middle of Nov., as the State Canvas Board will not meet till the end of next week, and only that board can mandate the full recount based on the very narrow margin. The preliminary and unofficial numbers can change this week -- before the county canvas boards meet, because they will be discovering minor math errors, transposed figures and the like in the first preliminary count. Today it went from a 480 margin this morning to a 430 margin late afternoon -- such small shifts are expected at this point. Whether it is likely to change the winner -- don't know. I do know that Hennepin County (Minneapolis) has had the lowest error rate in the entire US for a large Board of Elections for about 10 years running.

The one place one might find uncounted votes will be marks the machine read did not pick up -- perhaps people who used light pencil instead of the provided dark pens, small check marks outside the oval, things like that. If intent of voter is clear, they will be counted. We'll see. I went over my black marks in the oval twice just to make sure they were deeply blackened.

Anyhow, I don't think we will provide Florida style strum und drang.

user-pic

Hooray! My fellow Libertarians helped force a runoff in GA. =)

Hope Jim Martin can get that nasty veteran-degrading Saxby Chambliss out of office!

user-pic

If Stevens is kicked out of the Senate, could Sarah Palin appoint herself?

user-pic

No. The law was changed after Gov. Murkowski appointed his daughter. Now they have to hold a special election. Palin could run for the seat, though. I assume Begich would take another shot.

user-pic

One thing about the Georgia run off.
Brad Blog and Grep Palast say that 50,000 absentee ballots are still to be counted, with an unknown number of voters kicked off the voting list.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6641

http://www.gregpalast.com/the-steal-you-wont-see/#more-2161

Is it too late for those people in that district to re register?
Chamblis really should go down if its at all possible. Especially since the Sec. State there tried to screw us this time around.

Leave a comment

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address