Still Too Close to Call in CA-04 and VA-05
Here's the latest on two key House races that are still up in the air and both seemingly headed for recounts. In one race, the Democrats may have just fallen short in a deep-red district, though there are still a lot more ballots to tally up -- and in another, they may have just succeeded in picking off a GOP incumbent that few people would have predicted.
In California's Fourth District, the open seat of scandal-plagued GOP Congressman John Doolittle, an audit will be conducted of 10% of the district's voting machines -- the first step under state law in deciding whether to proceed with a full recount. Republican candidate Tom McClintock currently leads the 2006 Dem nominee Charlie Brown by only 889 votes out of over 300,000 votes counted so far, with 40,000 ballots still to be counted across both candidates' strongholds.
In Virginia's Fifth District, home to the cartoonishly anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim GOP Rep. Virgil Goode, the numbers between himself and Dem challenger Tom Perriello keep shifting. On Friday, Perriello declared victory and began his transition, but Goode has not conceded. As of right now, Perriello leads by 745 votes, and it's not implausible to imagine the race going back to Goode. By the time the race is certified on November 24, it will likely be so close that the losing candidate is entitled to a request a full recount at the state's expense.
Link to the CA Sec'y of State's returns page for CA-04: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/0459.htm
November 10, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I don't know anything of course and hate to make accusations, but I suspected the GOP would try to hold on to as many Congressional districts as possible when they could see that Obama was going to win.
I don't trust the voting process and I wonder if there wasn't some fooling around going on in order to keep us from picking up a fillibuster proof majority.
November 10, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it is pretty implausible to imagine the VA-05 race going back to Goode. I was an observer in the 2005 recount for the statewide Attorney General's race and a "full recount" in Virginia doesn't mean the same thing as in, say, Minnesota. The 2005 statewide recount changed far fewer votes than the current margin in this race out of a total which was much larger than the vote in one congressional district.
There may be a somewhat larger change because more votes were cast on optical-scan this year (electronic voting machines in VA aren't recounted in any meaningful sense), but on the other hand, the recount specifically doesn't allow changing the validity of any voter, absentee ballot, or provisional ballot. Those are challenges, separate from the recount, and a campaign has to convince a judge that they have evidence of a problem to have such challenges considered.
Really, this race is over. The only question is how much more of the taxpayers' money Goode will waste before he admits it.
November 10, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charlie's campaign is very optimistic at this point, but they have seven plus counties and that means watching every one of those offices for shenanigans. McClintock tried but failed to have some votes thrown out from Truckee. Just before the election two counties had to re-instate 1000's of registrations after illegally purging voters.
The best news is that Nevada county has tens of thousands of votes yet to count and that is where Charlie's support was strongest. They expect to count them this week.
He needs $$$ to monitor all those election boards and has an excellent chance of winning this-- so do the right thing.(charliebrownforcongress.org)
McClintock is a scary right-wing nut job with lots more charisma than most, and a lot of Republican backing, so he's especially dangerous to progressive values.
November 10, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
What's your rationale for arguing that it's "not implausible" to see the race going back to Goode? I'm not sure that anyone sees that as remotely plausible, unless it turns out that 1000 Goode votes are buried in Jefferson's Tomb at Monticello. There aren't any provisionals or anything left to count--all that is left is a manual recount, and since there are no paper trails for the vast majority of machines in this congressional district, there isn't really any room for any particularly massive shift in the count. I'd just like to hear your argument.
November 10, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric appears to be relying on headlines rather than information from people familiar with Virginia elections. However, given our recent history of very close elections, that information is now more widely available.
In the canvasses held by every locality the day after the election, the three members of the local boards of election gather, with observers from each party, and (99% of the time) the voter registrar, to confirm and record the results from all the precincts in that locality. They open the precinct packets, review the statement of results, and confirm that all the numbers check out.
In that process, it's normal for corrections to be made to the previous night's unofficial results (called in from the precinct by the election workers to the registrar). One example, accounting for a big step towards the lead Perriello now holds, is that two Charlottesville precincts had failed to include the absentee ballot counts in their called-in totals election night.
But, as VALawyer notes, after the canvasses have been completed (which happened by the end of last Thursday), there is no real possibility of further changes until after November 24, when the results will be certified. At that time, given a margin of 1% or less, Virginia election law permits the losing side to ask for a recount. (If the margin is .5% or less, and/or if the candidate who requests the recount wins, the counties and cities involved in the recount pay the costs. Otherwise, the candidate who requested the recount has to pay.)
As those who followed the 2005 statewide elections in Virginia may remember, Virginia's provisions for "recount" are considerably more lightweight than say, Minnesota's. The procedures are decided by a panel of three judges; the recount process takes place at some point after December 4.
What is involved is usually just a re-canvass: members of the boards of elections, accompanied by representatives of the two campaigns, will reinspect the final records on the voting machines in each precinct, and re-check the numbers on each category in the statement of results. A campaign needs to persuade the judges that a particular group of votes are questionable in some way in order for them to be actually re-counted. They have not succeeded in this very often in the past.
Given that history, it is very reasonable for Tom Perriello to begin assembling his Congressional staff and preparing for the transition. It's understandable that Virgil Goode has not conceded, and will insist on a recount before he does. But he knows as well as anyone how unlikely it is that the result will be his re-election.
TPM should either update this post, with a new headline, or produce a new one. You're not serving your readers well with the current characterization of VA-05 as "too close to call."
November 11, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Ohio 15th CD is also too close to call.
The Repub Stivers is only about 300 votes ahead, and around 10,000 provisional ballot from Columbus/Franklin County won't be counted until Friday.
A local political talking head in Columbus predicted last Friday that Mary Jo Kilroy, the Dem would win once the provsional ballots were counted.
Regardless, this one will be headed for a recount.
November 10, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say we should abolish full recounts or any recounts of any kind when Democrats are winning. What with all the rabid right-wing hoopla in recent years, progressive people deserve an extra shot at the House and Senate.
November 10, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
More resources for understanding the unlikelihood of reversing Perriello's lead in VA-5:
WaPo article from when Webb held 7000-vote lead over George Allen
Virginia state Board of Elections' Virginia Recounts: The Basics (Word .doc)
Small correction to my comment above: Although all localities completed their canvass by the end of last week (i.e., well before this TPM post), the canvass period is a week long. Should any locality turn up a change to their totals, they have until the end of today to report it to the Virginia Board of Election. I'm not holding my breath.
November 11, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This Saturday Roanoke Times article, Perriello Declares Victory, quotes veteran Democratic recount lawyer John Fishwick extensively on the unlikelihood that Goode can overturn Perriello's lead.
November 11, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink