Still More Signs That Stevens Is Going Down
Here's yet another sign that the Democrats are poised to defeat Alaska GOP Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens and pick up this key seat in a deep-red state.
The Anchorage Daily News analyzed the remaining 41,000 ballots left to be counted in this truly bizarre and drawn-out contest, and the numbers are very promising for Democratic challenger Mark Begich. It turns out that 56% of the remaining votes are from areas that Begich has carried in the votes already counted.
If those absentee votes go roughly the same as the rest of the ballots from those areas, Begich's current 814-vote lead could extend by as much as four-thousand votes -- enough to put him beyond the margin that would require a recount. There's even a chance that they could be more for Begich than the rest of the ballots, too, as his campaign actively pursued an early-vote strategy.
So unless these final votes contain a surprise that goes against all the available evidence, Stevens is probably toast.
Is it because the days are too short in the winter? Or is it just how things are done in Alaska?
Finish it already.
Even in a massive country like India all election results are reported in 48-72 hours and they use elephants to ship ballot boxes from some places.
November 14, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but India does not have to contend with having Sarah Palin as a leader.
November 14, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alaska is hugely busy keepin' an eye out for Putin, in case he rears his head and comes flying into US airspace. It's a full-time job there, doncha know?
November 14, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
you betcha' *wink*
November 14, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coming from NM (it took us forever to choose between Hillary and Barack), cut the 3rd world states some slack!
November 14, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this is an example of Princess Wasilla's "executive experience" perhaps she should spend some time as a Community Organizer.
Or maybe she could be an unlicensed plumber. She and Joe-the-Not are both behind on taxes.
All I know is that I'll be calling and writing my Senators and Congressman every time a spending bill is on the table, making sure that there is nothing in there for Alaska. Let them use some of their socialist redistribution of wealth money for their own damn projects.
PEACE
November 14, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alaska uses elephants to ship ballot boxes too. They're called Republicans.
November 14, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good one.
November 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has to do with geography. Most of rural Alaska is not on a road system - this time of year everything comes and goes by air. I have personally been in a village where the weather prevented any landings for over a week. Absentee ballots needed to be postmarked by November 4, but it can take up to several weeks for all of them to arrive at the place where they will be counted.
November 14, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Extra burnt.
November 14, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS FOR SARAH PALIN!
November 14, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Explain to me again how the ADN analyzed the 41,000 ballots before they were counted. It's been a week and a half since the election.
Alaska is fucking third world.
November 14, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry but don't insult the third world. Alaska is frozen hell, literally.
November 14, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, Alaska is the northern version of Texas.
All the rejects / thugs / criminals that couldn't make a go of it in the west eventually found their way to Alaska.
Just like in texas, their code of ethics is "If you don't get caught, it ain't illegal". :(
November 14, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
People who do not know about Texas make me want to barf. Our code of ethics is not "If you don't get caught it ain't illegal." It is "If you
don't get convicted it don't matter squat."
November 14, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ADN was just looking at where the remaining votes are from.
November 14, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. So they know how many ballots there are, where they are from, and how they will presumably be counted. Yet somehow they sit there on a desk somewhere, collecting dust. I mean, we've known about these ballots for more than a week. Yet there they sit. And sit. And sit.
It's ridiculous.
November 14, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have a lot to be thankful for to Alaska...the ice cube, the refrigerator, and the deep freeze.
November 14, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
... dogsled races
November 14, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thought that originate in Norway, Sweden, and Finland...just like Nordic skiing is the foundation for alpine skiing?
November 14, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snow machines. . .
November 14, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, the original Snow Machine was invented in Texas.
November 14, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And for using up most of the benightedness for the enlightenment of the lower 48.
November 14, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It should also be noted that a majority of those 41,000 absentee ballots were cast immediately after Stevens was found guilty - THAT is an excellent sign for Begich, unless the entire state of Alaska just couldn't care less they're voting for a convicted felon.
BTW, did anyone hear Al Franken on Bill Press's show this morning? I didn't know Norm Coleman made it a habit of suing each of his political competitors one week before the election. He's done this 3 or 4 times so far and always exactly one week before the election.
November 14, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember hearing that too, but it was more of an undercurrent than a surfable wave to ride. No one seemed to care and the story died the day it came out.
November 14, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
But I guess Franken's bringing up that topic in EVERY interview he gives - Coleman's trying to make this lawsuit look legitimate as if Franken deserved it and to make him look bad. But all it is is a ploy Coleman uses on every opponent.
It's worth repeating again and again, especially if Franken loses in the recount, and Coleman will think twice about using the ploy in the future.
I just hope Franken, if he loses, continues to run again and again against Coleman until he wins...and based on how close this one was, Franken should see a win the next time around.
November 14, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I think Franklin has it. The difference between the two have dropped so dramatically, I suspect the official recount will be in his favor.
November 14, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? Franken was a terrible candidate. Obama won by almost 9 points in Minnesota and Franken can't easily take out Norm Coleman? I hope he wins, but that many Obama/Coleman voters betrays a serious problem with Franken's campaign.
November 14, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that the third party candidate (Barkley, I think?) took a large percent of votes.
Should Coleman somehow manage to pull this one out, he still looks to be facing charges on all his unreported "gifts" - clothes, discounted housing rentals and some cash that was funnelled through his wife.
PEACE
November 14, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
But then again, what does that say about Norm Coleman's support - 4.5 million voters and he's currently up by just over 200 votes as of now?
Coleman's either a bad campaigner OR Minnesota is starting to realize who the man really is!
November 14, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last I heard there was a 236 vote difference and that was due to a human tally error. If one error was found, there'll be more discovered on a recount.
November 14, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I think some here were talking about that before the election. Coleman is certainly scum.
November 14, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's making it so slow is, they decided not to count the absentee/early ballots until they check tham all against the rolls of people who voted in person on Election Day. They want to weed out anyone who voted twice.
They should be doing it the other way around -- count the ballots first, which they could have done within a day or two of the election, and then do the cross-checking. Especially since double-voting in the primary -- which is what prompted the current convoluted counting process -- amounted to all of two dozen votes.
November 14, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess the computer revolution petered out before it got that far north.
November 14, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
This kind of delay threatens to undermine voters' confidence in early voting and other forms of alternative voting. That's very unfortunate since one of the lessons of the 2008 election is that early and no-excuse absentee voting help to ameliorate some of our worse systemic problems -- including impossibly long lines.
November 14, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
But that would mean the ballots weren't secret - they'd be open and still tied to a specific voter. You have to keep the ballots sealed until you decide whether or not to count it.
November 14, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
What you suggest is simply not possible. Once a vote is counted it can and should not be traceable back to a voter. Otherwise it wouldn't be a secret ballot.
November 14, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Settle down folks. Alaska is a fantastic state. No income tax. Revenue surplus. No sales tax (in Anchorage). Only property taxes here. Schools are fantastic in Anchorage....Quality of life is very high. I've lived in the Lower 48, I'm not going back. Not because I don't like it, I just like it here better. Even if our politics are messy.
Early votes from Mon 10/27 through Thur 10/30 were counted on Election Day. Then the voter rolls were updated for those who voted early, and sent out to the precincts. That way, folks who voted early don't get to vote again at their precinct. The remainder of the early votes, including Mark Begich's own vote from 10/31-11/3, are counted after Election Day along with absentee votes that are still coming in (today is the last day). So the counting continues. Begich will win. I just hope we don't dump him in six years. This is great news also because it prevents Palin from going to Washington anytime soon! We're taking one for the team up here! So don't disparage my state too much---I love it here!
November 14, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suggestion: Stop electing the likes of Ted Stevens, Don Young and the barracuda- may be Alaska will get the respect it deserves. No?
I was just kidding anyways.
November 14, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I don't "get" how Don Young gets re-elected. I guess since he brings home the bacon, he gets votes. Listening to local talk radio, it seems that folks voted for Ted knowing he'd get the boot from the Senate, and then another election would have to be held, which means another Republican would run, and they could vote for them.
It makes sense if you really can't stand the thought of a (D) representing us in the Senate.
November 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I take it Wasilla isn't within the unified school district for Anchorage then?
November 14, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would be correct.
November 14, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have fun with the Queen of Wasilla! She's all yours for the next few years.
November 14, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this also affecting the presidential count? Congressional count? local election count?
November 14, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
doggone it, I think it's just God slammin that door real tight.
November 14, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand.
Aren't there like 261 people in the entire state of Alaska? I think more people live within a one mile radius from me than in that entire state. How the hell long do you need to count the damed ballots?
If this is an example of the kind of people they have handling things up there then maybe Steven's and Palin are not mere aberrations...
November 14, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there was vote (count) manipulation, I think it was to slow down these bluer districts. If things had turned out differently, Begich would have conceded when Stevens led strongly out of the gate on Election Day, making these votes irrelevant and the counting stop. A gambit, but not sticking their necks out too far.
November 14, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys are missing the most important issue: when Stevens gets arrested, what happens to his massage chair? Does Palin sell it on E-Bay? Does she take it and charge the state a per diem when the First Dude uses it?
November 14, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin said that if a door opened, even a crack, she'd walk through and go for another national campaign, but she was waiting for God to open the door.
So with a Begich win, does that mean God has spoken to Sarah and said "No, Sarah, you are not meant to pursue a senate seat or another national election. The door is closed." Or will she conveniently wait for another sign from her Creator?
November 14, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word out of Miami is the repugs are quite happy with her flirting with 2012 cause everyone knows she'll crash and burn and not be an issue in 2016 when they really want the White House back...something to do with leaving Obama to straighten out the Bu$h financial mess I believe.
November 14, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Changed the Iditarod to the Iamacon I hear.
November 14, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
OOOHH!! Sarah Palin got royally dissed by her own party!
Greg, you've gotta make this it's own story here!
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/14/palin-rga-leadership/
November 14, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was quite obvious to the most casual observer on the video where the press was all over her about her Presidential aspirations and her fellows governors were nothing more than an ad hoc group to fill in the background.
November 14, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno. From what I saw of "Northern Exposure", Alaska is a pretty cool place.
November 14, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the interest of truth, Northern Exposure was filmed in Roslyn, Washington. And the chick who played Maggie is a right wing neocon lunatic in real life.
November 14, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and I also noticed she hasn't had a job since Northern Exposure and that mountain flick with Stallone. Oh wait, she did make a commercial about the importance of teardrops.
A DVD special features producer friend of mine in L.A. and I had a conversation recently about "What the hell happened to's" - Janine Turner's name came up and he told me she was always pushing her right wing dregs on every set she'd work on. She turned off a lot of producers with this and it hurt her.
November 14, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Begich has to win. Otherwise Palin is gonna run if Stevens gets booted don't cha know it if the will of the people is heard, and you know, she hears that up there in the great State of Alaska they're just askin' for it and so with the will of the Lord on her side and the demon spirits all sent a runnin' she'll just do it....and I will not be able to handle that.
November 14, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Walt Moneghan for U.S. Marshall!
November 14, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have any of you noticed that other congressional races remain undecided in Minnesota, California, Ohio, etc?
"Republican Tom McClintock is clinging to an 815-vote lead over Democrat Charlie Brown in their race for California's 4th District, a seat left vacant by the retirement of Republican Rep. John Doolittle. Tens of thousands of votes remain uncounted and both campaigns have hired lawyers and poll observers for what likely will be a nasty wrangle for each contestable vote in the upcoming recount."
"Ohio’s 15th District may not be decided for more than a week as local election officials await the arrival of provisional ballots. Republican Steve Stivers hangs on to lead of 393 votes."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15607_Page2.html
So please shut up and wait for the votes to be counted.
November 14, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Alaska, there is no automatic recount unless there is a tie.
An Authorization of Recount Application can be filed if one candidate and 10 voters claim there is a mistake and file that claim within five days of the official count.
November 14, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ted Stevens is possibly the most evil-looking human being I've ever seen a photograph of. He looks like a cannibal serial killer. I mean, what am I supposed to think about a state that calls this gargoyle "Uncle Ted"?
November 14, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rupert Murdoch gives him a run for his money.
November 14, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess this means that God is cracking open a door for Sarah to "plow" through -- but the door is marked EXIT.
November 14, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
November is winter in Alaska. There can be huge snowstorms. Much of the state is not accessable by road. You either fly in, take a boat, or the Alaska Railroad. The RR will stop for the folks who live in the bush at various mile markers. The train will stop, they will get off, and trudge to their homes.
Many towns don't have daily plane service. So it can take a while for the ballots to arrive. There are extremely liberal absentee rules because of the weather problems. And every single late absentee ballot envelope must be checked against voting rolls to make sure the voter didn't vote on Election Day. 28 did in the primary.
And remember, unlike much of America, the voters out there in the isolated "bush" country are strongly Democrat.
I have serious questions about voter turnout in Alaska this year, but I understand that having people vote in such a vast land in an Artic winter poses amazing challenges. Cut them a break on time constraints. At least there aren't any reports of voter suppression up there.
November 14, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Under Alaska Statutes any candidate can request a recount, or a group of of 10 citizens or more can request a recount. The requesting party has to pay $15,000 for a statewide recount unless the margin of difference is less than .5%
Sec. 15.20.440
"If the recount includes an office for which candidates received a tie vote, or the difference between the number of votes cast was 20 or less or was less than .5 percent of the total number of votes cast for the two candidates... the application need not include a deposit, and the state shall bear the cost of the recount."
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/Publications/2008GeneralMediaPacket.pdf
November 14, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The true saying of Alaska.
"We screw the other guy and pass the savings on to you."
November 14, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink