Still More Polls Show Obama And McCain Splitting Key Red States -- But Obama Winning Overall
Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.
If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:
• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.
• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.
• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.
• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.
• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.
• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.
All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.
Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.
Nate at 538 has a good write up on Mason Dixon. He shows the bias in their polls by state.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/house-effects-in-action.html
November 2, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! Both of us posted the same thing at the same time! Synchronicity!
November 2, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right!
November 2, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mason Dixon tilts GOP not only in this cycle but in 2004, 2000 too.
No matter. You should add 1-2% in every battleground state to account for Obama's ground game.
Nate et al cannot quantify it so they ignore it.
Me, I'm not ashamed to pull it out my butt (not exactly - see http://research.yale.edu/GOTV/
November 2, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
See 538 for a discussion of these polls and Mason Dixon overall:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/house-effects-in-action.html
November 2, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry.
November 2, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry for what? We both did good!
November 2, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since undecideds tend to be conservative, this could be closer than it appears.
What's mystifying, is how people can switch back and forth, as they have, according to the Survey USA poll. First McCain, then Obama, then McCain again. It's probably around the tax issue.
Sad that that these people don't get that McCain will bankrupt the country with his giveaway to millionaires, while at the same time, getting rid of the tax deduction for business owners who provide health insurance for their employees.
November 2, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless the undecideds stay home. Seems to me that if these folks are truly torn, the best solution is to avoid making any decision. And just let the chips fall. I'm betting on a lot of that.
If people are strongly committed, they feel an intense desire to vote. But if torn, they clearly don't have an intense desire. Long lines or any other distraction may be preferable to feeling ambivalent.
November 2, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry... I meant that long lines could discourage them... or any other distraction from actually voting.
November 2, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
You really think the people switch back and forth?
LMAO! No offense, but I don't think people are switching. I think numbers are juggled differently at different times by different people.
Goddamn - Occam's razor almost demands that explanation. The thought of voters switching back and forth is too far fetched for words, AFAIC.
November 2, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but the race is tightening in Virginia and Obama has a mere 5 point lead, down from
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html
It probably has to do with McCain saying that Obama will raise everyone's taxes. Not true, but the problem is, that much of the MSM takes a "we report, you decide" approach.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bccf3ebd-67cc-4a9d-a5fb-c77588567594
November 2, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I appreciate and understand your concern, but "a mere 5 point lead" seems overly concerned. In a state won by Bush by what margin, four years ago? Won by Webb in a squeaker two years ago?
By next Sunday, with this degree of movement, they'll be exactly even in VA.
November 2, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but five points with 48 hours to go may as well be 50 points.
November 2, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
They do? I didn't know that. Do you have a link?
November 2, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the new McLame/GOP meme - indecideds are voting McLame.
Sez McLame and the Repugs.
November 2, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Undecideds.
November 2, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
now undecideds are not the same as undeclared, and colorado is not the same as virginia, but the undeclareds in colorado are breaking in a huge way for obama.
November 2, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did read it yesterday, in Newsweek, Time, WaPo or perhaps the NY Times. I'll look for it, if I get the chance.
I thought about posting it yesterday but held back because everyone was jazzed and I didn't want to bum people out.
In some states, when you account for voters who say they are undecided and yes they tend to be conservative, Obama has the slimest of leads, 2-3 points.
November 2, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK. So what we know is this. Early voting has been healthy. Democrats appear to have a real edge in number of ballots. The number of people who are "undecided" is getting smaller. The enthusiasm level among Obama supporters is significantly higher than McCain. Obama holds leads in the battleground states.
And you want to focus on the undecideds? And claim that they are conservative, and thus, are going to bite into Obama's lead?
If they're "undecided" at this point, I guess I don't see how they're going to want to go stand in long lines to vote for a candidate they just decided to support in the last 48 hours.
And I don't know that we're talking about that many people. I'd still like to see the evidence that "undecideds" are conservative.
I know that Republicans have done an excellent job of pushing the claim that they're going to break for McCain, but pollsters have analyzed that claim (Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com,e.g.) and don't understand the basis for that claim.
November 2, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got a lot on my plate today and shouldn't be posting at all.
I think that most people on this site would agree that I usually provide links and don't blow smoke. How about doing a google search, and reporting back?
November 2, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that.
November 2, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
From NPR:
Who are these people who still can't make up their minds — after dozens of debates, two conventions and perhaps a billion dollars' worth of advertising?
According to Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, 63 percent of undecided voters are female. Twenty-seven percent are age 65 and older; many tend to be less well-educated and more religious than voters who have already picked their candidate.
From this one might infer that they are, in fact, conservative, I guess, but I think its arguable.
And how does Kohut predict they'll break?
Link: Who are the undecided voters, according to Andrew Kohut
November 2, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell you what. I'll drop this if you promise to make some GOTV call for Obama. ;-)
November 2, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drop what?
You make a claim. I disagree. I ask for evidence and you in essence tell me to go look for it myself. Which I did, and posted. So what exactly needs to be dropped?
November 2, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Treating one's fellow Obama supporter like they aren't on the same team?
I read an article that said that undecideds tend to be conservative. I can't provide a link, but I figure that since I've been a part of this community for a long time, it wouldn't be the end of the world. It's not like I said that Obama is going to lose, just that we shouldn't take anything for granted, that the race could indeed be tighter than we think.
For me, the fact that the race is tightening reminded me that I need to be making calls, and I thought It might have a similar effect on my fellow posters.
November 2, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry that you perceived my comments as treating you like you're not on the same team. You stated something I had never heard before, and I asked for evidence.
Whether it was my choice of words, or the simple act of asking for a link that bothered you, please accept my apologies, for no insult was intended. I was simply curious.
November 2, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
This link says that undecided voters tend to be "fiscally conservative" and "socially liberal."
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/04/palin.independents/index.html
That actually suggests, to me, that they would lean Obama this time.
"conservative" is such a catch-all word.
November 2, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it is and right now, every fiscal conservative I know is completely fed up with the Republicans.
November 2, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The article I saw is not the one CT cited but I give up.
November 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has to win by a 10 point margin on Tuesday to outweigh the lead Obama has built up in early voting. I don't know, but you seem to be making a bigger deal out of 2-3 points than you should. 2-3 points, or 5 points, with 48 hours to go is pretty much non-recoverable for the person on the bottom.
November 2, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Logic would seem to confirm that undecideds are conservatives it seems to me. People who haven't made up their minds at this point were more than likely happy with or oblivious to the last 8 years or they would be more interested in the campaigns. I don't know any liberals or even moderate Dems, with the possible exception of some die-hard Clinton supporters, who don't think it's critical to throw the bums out.
Also, I think there are some concerned conservatives who haven't committed yet because they know Obama is the better choice, but feel obligated to Mccain. My cousin was one of those. He voted for mccain because mccain had served his country and deserved an opportunity to run it now. But he, my cousin, didn't make up his mind totally, I don't think until he got into the voting booth. My cousin is a lifelong repub originally from Kansas and Missouri now living in Texas.
November 2, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a guess, but doesn't it also make sense that as early voters complete their ballots they fall out of the universe being polled? IOW, their are simply less voters to sway on way or the other? Hm. I don't know though. Just a guess, as I said.
November 2, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually they seem to be using that data to correct their models for who is likely to vote.
November 2, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is secure in Me,NH,Vt,Ma,RI,Ct,NY,NJ,De,Md,DC,Mi,Il,Mn, Co,Ca,Or,Wa and HI, he'll have 230 ev's
If he can take both Florida and Ohio that gives him 277 so Pennsylvania won't matter.
November 2, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This inverts the priorities, doesn't it? Obama has a better chance in PA than in OH and FL. So make sure you nail down PA. That way either OH or FL will be topping. Or, assuming a win in VA (big assumption?), you won't need either. Seriously, I want to pull my hair out when I hear people talk about giving up PA. That's why I've been ranting against adventures in GA, ND, AZ, and MT. Even NC and MO are long shots. But is team Obama asking me for my advice? No they're not.
November 2, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they're not giving up on PA. Why do you think this? Seriously? Hillary Clinton is there. Joe Biden has been there. Obama was there last week. What else do you want them to do? Spend the entire weekend in PA? I guess I don't understand your beef. He should concentrate winning PA and say so long to the rest of the states?
Follow McCain's strategy, in other words?
November 2, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truth is, CT, it's basically all past tense now. As Axelrod said to someone yesterday, "The die is cast even as we speak." It's true. The die is cast. The only question is really how big the win will be. I'm holding out for around 350. What an amazing night it's going to be. Have fun!
November 2, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other thing. Nate Silver (who had a good track record in the primaries, but who, of course, could be just all wrong) has this to say about PA: Obama has a better shot of winning Arizona than McCain has of winning PA.
November 2, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chill, baby Blue. PA is going to be fine. You'll see. It's a BLUE state, it's always been a blue state, it will remain a blue state - just like you. : )
Here's a song just your you, Blue.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPsqhlRac1E
November 2, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
just for you, Blue... I mean. ; )
November 2, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, my me can use it too. Thanks! Here's to Blue PA.
November 2, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aren't these polls somewhat old? They were done on 10/28 and 10/29 (presumably before the informercial). Why did it take three days to release the information?
November 2, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rally the repub troops - by having polls to show things are close?
November 2, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
A weekend with no other news and certainly none anyone is paying any attention to.
They have to fill that time up with something they think will keep their audience awake.
November 2, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hot damn! This is really getting exciting!
November 2, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been curing Monday. Why can't the week have only six days?
November 2, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn! Time for a little remainder:
http://www.whiterabbitcult.com/barack-obama-says-everyone-chill-the-fuck-out/
November 2, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tbis might just about be right, and if this is ibfact the final outcome from each state I'll be happy.
November 2, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect there will be some surprises for both sides on election night. But going through the state-by-state polls it's clear that Obama has a solid and consistent lead in far more battleground states than McCain.
Whenever you get too anxious or panicky go to Pollster or Real Clear Politics, click on the individual battleground states and see how consistently Obama has led for weeks in most of them. The trends are definitely not in McCain's favor. Obama needs little or no luck now to win. McCain needs a shitload.
November 2, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could swear, bvd, that we go through this on Sundays only to find on Monday that whatever ground McLame gained somehow has been lost again.
This is their last Sunday for this. I think the pollsters play football with the numbers on Sundays.
November 2, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Consider this
McCain has not led or tied in any national poll since 9/25. Since 10/1, he has never led or tied in any poll in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Since 10/1, McCain has lost every poll in Nevada except one 47-47 tie on 10/19.
So, when Obama's advisors come out on the mornign shows and say that they are going to win the west plus Penn and Virginia, I think they are giving us their most straight forward and conservative numbers. This is what they can say with almost absolute certainty. Underpromising to then over deliver.
At the same time, the McCain camp is admitting that they are trailing in their own internals. They are basically saying that if the most conservative polls and turn out moderls are correct, if the undecideds break for McCain by well over 60% and if McCain can flip Pennsylvania, then they can get to 270. In other words, Nate's 2.5 % chance that McCain could still win.
And that's with Obama currenly at 50.5% in the RCP average, his second highest day in that average since September 1st of 2007.
Almost there.
November 2, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
How were your southern Baptists?
I forgot - you are a minister, aren't you? I'm sorry I'm blanked on that earlier.
November 2, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. only 3 of over 15 pollsters have had Obama under 50% in Pennsylvania in all of October. They still had Obama up by 4,5 and 8.
In 2004, the final RCP average had Kerry up by .09 in Penn.
Of the last 9 polls, 8 of them had Kerry under 50.
November 2, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena,
I'm a Deacon. Well, our pastor showed a video that basically said that if you are a Christian you have to vote against candidates who differ on the Southern Baptist beliefs on abortion and gay marriage. He then told us that we should vote according to our values and not due to our pocket books. My take away - even the most die hard Christian conservatives know that the Republicans stink on the economy.
Then we all pitched in at the end and raised what looks like a little short of a thousand dollars for the parents of one of our members who both have cancer and can't afford their medical bills. Our running total as a church is a little over $20,000 this year to help folks strugglin with medical bills.
These folks are maddening sometimes I tell you -
November 2, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio?!?!?!? COME ON, Ohio. I'm talking to you, "high in the middle." You must be high all over.
If you vote for another Republican, you can no longer be part of the Midwest.
Sincerely,
Michigan.
November 2, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me to Mason-Dixon's Ohio poll: Just Shut the Fuck Up.
If you saw Obama's rally today in Columbus on the Statehouse steps, you would know that the Mason-Dixon poll is BULLSHIT.
Obama is ahead in EVERY Ohio poll in the past 3 weeks EXCEPT this Mason-Dixon piece of shit.
As I have said here for MONTHS to the point of people getting sick of me repeating it:
WE ARE GOING TO WIN OHIO!
I GAR-ON-FUCKING-TEE IT!
November 2, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
seems to me when we look at the mix we should be thinking of "Kerry states" (252 EV) + Iowa + New Mexico (12 more), which Barack pretty clearly seems to have put away.
So . . . that's 264 EV.
Which means, he wins, with Colorado ALONE (9 EV), or Virginia ALONE (13 EV), or Missouri ALONE (11EV) (LOL), not to mention Ohio or Florida. And he ties with Nevada ALONE (5 EV).
Just sayin' . ..
ps. the fact that I know, off the top of my head, the EV counts in states I don't live in and haven't set foot in, in some cases for years, is a sign of why I'm very glad Tuesday is coming soon . . ..
November 2, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink