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Right Wing's Favorite Pollster Says McCain Is Likely To Lose
Uh oh -- McCain may have lost John Zogby.
Today's Zogby tracking poll finds Obama ahead by six points nationally among likely voters, prompting Zogby to offer a bleak assessment of McCain's chances:
"There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here," pollster John Zogby said.
What's fun about this is that the winger bloggers and media have been pushing Zogby numbers to make the case that McCain could still win. Yesterday Drudge went mad flacking a cherry-picked number from Zogby's tracking polling to push the idea that McCain had taken the lead. Even today, the New York Post has the following huge headline, based on the same number:
POLL LIFTS HOPE OF MAC MIRACLE
Incidentally, Zogby himself wants the wingers to stop frothing over his numbers. In his release today, he says: "A special note to blogger friends: calm it down."
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YES!
After This here! All I Can Say is Yes and Please!
All I Can Say...Is WOW!
It Has Come To This???
I'm not saying McCain/Palin has anything to do with this but you have to ask yourself...What the Heck Is Going On Out There????
McCain Supporter Denies Candy To Children Of Obama Supporters On Halloween (VIDEO)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/mccain-supporter-denies-c_n_140075.html
November 2, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the general interpretation of that final Zogby comment has been that he is attacking liberal bloggers for attacking him, especially Nate Silver. What do others think?
November 2, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed, It was a cheap shot at Nate.
November 2, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think he's talking to Drudge.
I think has nothing to do with Nate.
November 2, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I'm pretty sure it's a jab at Nate. Here's the whole quote:
He might be targeting blogs in general (which is completely disingenuous because he actively courts the attention) but the stuff about baseball cards is all about Nate.
November 2, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's threatened by Nate, the new kid on the block, that can do this job better than him. Zogby's polling has been crap this season and Nate's been pointing that out. Too bad for Zogby. Not even baseball would hire him after this is all said and done.
November 2, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe if Zogby wants "blogger friends" to "calm it down", HE SHOULDN'T RELEASE ONE DAY SAMPLES TO DRUDGE.
Just saying.
November 2, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
IF he meant Nate he wouldn't have said "blogger friends" .
Nate is another pollster. And Nate has not been frothing. Nate doesn't do frothing.
November 2, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was definitely Nate because here's the full quote (as of last night, I don't know if he edtied since) -
And Zogby was probably insulting Nate by calling him a blogger, since Nate doesn't do his own polling, but rather uses and critiques others. Probably a pollster case of "Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach. Those who can't teach, criticize"
November 2, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't get the whole quote - you're right. "Baseball cards" says it.
November 2, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Final CNN Poll: Obama 53 McCain 46
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/02/obama-seven-points-ahead-in-cnns-final-poll/#more-27765
November 2, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, that "baseball cards" comment obviously targets Nate. Zogby is pretty thin-skinned, isn't he?
November 2, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup.
If I'd known Zogby said that I wouldn't have argued that it wasn't Nate - that says it all.
It is Nate he's referring to. Sounds like Zogby is nice shade of Envy Green.
November 2, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's an honor to be insulted by an idiot whose sampling is so bad that he goes from -1 to +10 in s single day, AND so utterly clueless and shameless that he actually tries to give "explanations" for this supposed"shift" in opinion.
November 2, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is anyone even bothering with this "McCain could still pull it out in PA, McCain could still win NC" bullshit?
He could win them both, and MO, and would still lose the election. He's lost VA, NM, CO, IA - all states that went for Bush in 2004. So what if he manages to eke out a slim margin in a couple of states where he's down now? That's called winning the battle but losing the war.
November 2, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
You tell me.
I said to CT below - not only does CNN have space to fill, TPM is actively blogging all weekend and our hosts have space to fill.
;)
November 2, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I read somewhere that Zogby's poll numbers are democrat-lite. Seems democrats aren't equally representative as are repugs. So the results are skewed in favor of McCain
November 2, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't Zogby predict a Kerry win in 2004? So who cares what he says right now?
November 2, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was saying to Dorn earlier - I remember back in the day when a 4 point lead was a 'landslide'.
Now we get all kinds of O Noessss! if Obama drops below a double digit lead.
LOL!
November 2, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know. I don't want anyone to get complacent about this. Of course. On the other hand, I don't know ANYONE who is complacent. Everyone I know here in Connecticut is worried sick about the outcome and is either donating money or making phone calls. The weather is going to be very nice here in CT (and Chicago and Cleveland, two other places I obsessively checked) on Tuesday, so people are going to vote.
On the other hand, here I am on a beautiful Sunday checking poll numbers. It seems like Democrats are suffering from multiple personality disorder right now. Alternating between "There isn't any reasonable way for McCain to pull this off, so why are the media folks trying to make it appear closer than it is" and "OMG!!! GET OUT THERE AND CALL PEOPLE!!!"
I'll be glad when this is over.
November 2, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
We are all neurotic as hell.
Good news never scared so many people so much.
November 2, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver Today : PA - It's a done deal.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-pennsylvania.html
November 2, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: PA ....an uninspiring kerry +2; an uninspired Gore campaign that ditched clinton = +4; clinton +9 and +9. He won't meet clinton's numbers but should be +5 after the puts and takes. It's over.
November 2, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is terrible news. Zogby called 2004 "Kerry's race to lose." He's congenitally wrong.
November 2, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Pennsylvania is THE REPUBLICAN WHITE WHALE does than make McCain, Captain Ahab?
November 2, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Pennsylvania is THE REPUBLICAN WHITE WHALE does than make McCain, Captain Ahab?
November 2, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby's ironic reference to blogger friends was a slam at Nate over at fivethirtyeight.com, as Zogby said such bloggers should go back to looking at their baseball cards.
Note: Zogby has had a pro-Dem bias for years, including in 2004 when he predicted a Kerry win. This year he predicted a Barack win by 13 points in the CA primary but Barack lost by 10 points -- Zogby was off by just 23 POINTS.
November 2, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT Voter - I hear ya, and think this MPD is helpful because it doesn't allow us to get complacent. I'll be meeting up with other Obama supporters this evening at the local brewpub from 6 - 9 to make calls to Missouri. And I've got the day off on Tuesday to do more of the same. But I do realize that we've pretty much got this thing won - at this point, our efforts are needed to make sure it goes into landslide territory. This is probably just wishful thinking, but the Pukes will have far less standing for constant harrassment ala Clinton if this thing turns into an Obama blowout. They can try it, but they may find their tenure short-lived.
November 2, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this is probably what the Obama campaign is aiming for. The talk of complacency isn't about a threat to a win. It's about Obama stepping on the necks of Republicans. Or throwing them anchors, as Markos says.
I'll try to keep that in mind. And keep calling. And nagging my students to get out there and vote on Tuesday.
November 2, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word! You are exactly right - he wants a big ass mandate and a lot of political capital, to put it in terms the Repugs use.
And rightly so -
November 2, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Zogby can’t come up with a winning scenario for McCain it’s over. I think Zogby’s typical group of likely voters for this election has been culled from a 1978 membership list of the Young Americans for Freedom. Hard to imagine how a legitimate polling organization would have been coming up with the PA predictions Zogby's been releasing.
November 2, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Zogby can’t come up with a winning scenario for McCain it’s over. I think Zogby’s typical group of likely voters for this election has been culled from a 1978 membership list of the Young Americans for Freedom. Hard to imagine how a legitimate polling organization would have been coming up with the PA predictions Zogby's been releasing.
November 2, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink