Polls: Obama's Early-Vote Strategy Gives Him Initial Advantage In Key States
As we head into Election Day tomorrow, a look at polls reveals a fact that hasn't truly sunk in: Tomorrow is not truly Election Day, but more like the end of the Election Weeks, with the Obama campaign having built up substantial leads in early-vote states, which John McCain has to overcome if he wants to pull off a win.
Take a look at these examples:
• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 56%-42% among early voters, with an estimated 56% of the total likely vote now cast. McCain is ahead 54%-43% with the rest, for an overall top-line of Obama 50%, McCain 48%.
• In Nevada, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 57%-43% among early voters, with an estimated 71% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain is up 57%-38% among the remaining votes, for an overall top-line result of Obama 51%, McCain 47% -- but McCain would need to win the remaining voters by more than two to one, if these estimates are accurate.
• In Ohio, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead 60%-36% among the early voters, with an estimated 30% of the total vote already cast. McCain is ahead 51%-43% among the remainder, for an overall top-line of Obama 48%, McCain 46%. But the pollster's analysis expresses serious doubt about whether McCain can get the needed extra margin to overcome Obama's early-vote lead, based on the demographics of the remaining voters.
It's worth remembering that a whole lot of those Obama campaign rallies over the last few weeks were officially billed as being "Early Vote For Change" rallies, in which Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or some other surrogate would take a moment out from the standard talk about change and hope in order to deliver a civics lesson about how to vote early, and why the audience members should do it right after the rally.
In short, the Obama campaign didn't wait for Election Day to execute their get-out-the-vote strategy. They've been very actively pursuing it this whole time, bringing voters out early so they wouldn't have to worry about it as much on Election Day. And if he narrowly wins any of these red states tomorrow, that strategy may end up having been the decisive factor.















Future political scientists will refer to Obama's 2008 strategy and operations as the pinnacle of modern-day campaign achievement.
November 3, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes, i agree. BO campaign's strategy and technique will be studied in every political science class from now until eternity.
In terms of infrastructure the Dem Party has a huge advantage. BO and Howard Dean has laid a foundation and a model that now only requires updating and tweaking as time goes by. The Repub party's infrastructure crumbled after 2004 in part because they assumed (got lazy) that the "Republican majority" had arrived and was here to stay. McCain has no GOTV infrastructure and it is going to show up tomorrow.
November 3, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - there will be entire books written about this innovative and brilliant campaign. I don't mean just the Ted White type "Making of a President" things. I mean there will be books written about the overall conception, planning, discipline and execution of this campaign. It will be the new paradigm for decades to come.
November 3, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
and the McCain campaign as the Pinochle!
November 3, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
America is going to do the right thing. No longer will our country fall victim to the politics of fear. Not this time. Not this election.
President Barack Obama...Don't you love the sound of that!
Obama/Biden
November 3, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's so great -the whole damn thing has been fueled by us! And to the tune of I believe $21,000,000, it has been fueled specifically by the netroots.
But there's more - it's been neighbor to neighbor, face to face, too.
This is not a campaign - it's a movement. The Repugs are terrified. Terrified.
November 3, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I have always voted Democratic, but I never donated time or money to any campaign in my life.
Barack Obama motivated me to actually get involved, and I don't know what the hell I was waiting for.
Today in Portland, Oregon, Mrs. Unabogie went in to volunteer, and she was sent home.
Sent home!
They had too many volunteers, and all the phone lines were taken and all the canvass packets had been handed out.
She came home and made calls from our house.
This is just huge.
November 3, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's so cool!
November 3, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was she going to the Obama office or the DPO offices?
I was phone banking last night at the DPO for down-ticket races. Have her go to the DPO offices at NE 9th (you can get the address form the Multnmomah County Democrats website) and go there and ask where she can help out.
November 3, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
She went to the Obama HQ. She's be back tomorrow, so I'll pass on your advice.
Thanks!
November 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like it even better than the sound of Gimme Shelter, Tumbling Dice and Start Me Up.
November 3, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's drink to the hard working people
Let's drink to the salt of the earth
November 3, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty prescient for a song written 40 years ago.
November 3, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, when youre sitting there
In your silk upholstered chair
Talking to some rich folks that you know
Well I hope you wont see me
In my ragged company
You know I could never be alone
Take me down little susie, take me down
I know you think youre the queen of the underground
And you can send me dead flowers every morning
Send me dead flowers by the mail
Send me dead flowers to my wedding
And I wont forget to put roses on your grave
November 3, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mick Jagger is very underrated as a lyricist.
November 3, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe it was Keef who wrote those lyrics.
November 3, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - and I need love to keep me happy.
Baby.
November 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
For Toot and the Nation.... GO OBAMA/BIDEN '08!!!
November 3, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This level of campaign will be impossible should the government force further campaign finance reform that caps spending. Obama round game organization has probably cost him more than the public money McCain chose.
November 3, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just got my Obama ticket!!!!
November 3, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw congratulations! I wish I could be there - but I love knowing you will be.
November 3, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys will all be there with me in spirit.
November 3, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, you're so lucky! Enjoy yourself and have a great time!
November 3, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like the party of a lifetime---wish I could go.
November 3, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's enough for me. In spirit.
Have the time of your life! :)
November 3, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be there as well hyper.
I feel a bit guilty about going knowing there are people who have literally dedicated weeks and months of their lives to Obama. So to all of you have have done more than me, know that I am thinking of you tomorrow, and that I feel very lucky to be there representing us all.
Fired up!
November 3, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is soooo cool! I am happy you et to go...wish I could be there too!
November 4, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is soooo cool! I am happy you et to go...wish I could be there too!
November 4, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the White Wash Troopergate findings exonerate Palin of any wrong doing. The investigation she launched against herself and handpicked the investigator...
Releasing it on the very eve of the election so all news reports could run with "Palin cleared of Troopergate wrongdoing" without explaining that this was the second finding and that this is the one she controlled.
November 3, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will make no difference. She may not be convicted felon like Uncle Ted, but she is still not changing any votes in their favor.
She is cemented in fake America's brain as a moron.
November 3, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
fake America - where the brain lies! Yup, we will never forget!
November 3, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you mean, corrupt moron.
November 4, 2008 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those are some phenomenal numbers. I saw Ambinder report that the Obama camp was hoping to be even in Ohio heading into election day and right now they're up by more than 100K. In 2004 that was about the difference between Bush and Kerry.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
November 3, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that and a Repub Attorney General who said "Shit happens." No Repub AG this year my friend.
November 3, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
O/T ---What a shock! MSNBC reports that the investigator for the Alaska Personnel Board has cleared Palin of any wrongdoing in TrooperGate.
November 3, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well there goes my entire schadenfreude edifice over the independent counsel. Apparently not so much.
Take heart- there's the new stuff - her kids flying around on the tax payers' dime.
November 3, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
And just who built and paid for her house in Wasilla.
November 3, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have any of you seen the Paul Simon ad against his old song I wonder where it's all gone wrong? Ends with the picture of Bush being embrace by McLame.
Perfect ad for Election Eve. (Why does this feel like Christmas Eve used to feel when I was a kid?)
November 3, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I have seen it....I think I saw it last night. It's fantastic.
November 3, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
An American Tune.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbuLchsauKs
November 3, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Tina we have the camp set up...we have the porta potties set up....Beer is cold and the lines are ready. Tournament starts in 2 hours!
BTW we have bottomed out at 80 entrants.
November 3, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, this is the best ad I've seen on the campaign.
This is "Morning in America: The Aftermath".
I just wish they put it a week earlier.
November 3, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very sad to see the yes on prop 8 on TPM, some money is not worth campaign bigotry. Very ashamed of TPM.
November 3, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
TPM is not responsible for the content of GoogleAds. Let them waste their money. I click through those and McCain ads repeatedly so they sink more money into them (albeit marginally).
November 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for enlightening me, I did see it said Google Ads, so how does this work then?
November 3, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The advertiser has to pay for every click through. Sometimes, they pay more if the person then clicks on more pages at the advertiser's site. It's not cheap, either. When I was using Google Ads, a single click could cost as much as $5.
November 3, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks so much, now I will click away and cost them money :)
I am in a very conservative county in CA, and there were more no on 8 signs than yes, which is astounding. Keeping my fingers crossed.
The initiative in Florida actually includes civil unions, very sad.
November 3, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's also targeted to your location via cookies. I don't see Prop 8 ads, I see ads for Mark Udall or several amendments on the Colorado ballot.
November 3, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, good to know. I realized Yahoo did that, but guess I am quite behind the times. However, I have clicked on it several times now, and it shows both Presidential candidates and both VP candidates with smiles saying they think marriage is between and a man and a woman. Mormons have put at least 10 million into this Proposition.
November 3, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
His essential parent of his teenage years dies 24 hours before the polling day opens. This particular candidate at this very particular point and era in U.S. history.
Preordained? The Ancients would be all agog at such a scenario. Someone is trying to make me not an agnostic, draw me away from the atheism I adopted in the jungle in Vietnam.
Like Chekhov, I estimate talent, artistry, the idea of the individual, and truth. Most of all I have come to admire the next U.S. president. After all that has happened over the past eight years, how truly fortunate we are!
November 3, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hank Williams Jr. is now spouting off about Obama not liking the national anthem now at Palin rallies. Hand and Joe the Plumber should cut a proud-to-be-ignorant red neck duet
November 3, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
i have lived in chicago for the past 4 years, got to know obama from his first senate campaign. yesterday I was sent on a business trip to dallas for the next 3 weeks. It was bittersweet reading this over at fivethirtyeight.com:
“And I swore I’d be in Chicago tomorrow, and made sure of that, taking a bus to Chicago, spending most of my money, and didn’t give a damn, just as long as I’d be in Chicago tomorrow.”
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
So for all who made it to chicago tomorrow, celebrate for those of us that had to leave or for those who couldn't make it.
November 3, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I'm so sorry you're stuck in Dallas. I really am. But - I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't some wild celebrating going on tomorrow night in Dallas.
I bet you can find something -
November 3, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, have you tried Kava, it is legal!
If you want some drop me a line.
November 3, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've tried it - it's available here in health food stores and Whole Foods. It's pleasant.
I'd take you up on it if I wasn't changing addresses in about 10 days - maybe when I get back to Dallas.
November 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're on will send the real stuff with directions!
November 3, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
So sorry for you. On the flip side, so happy for Hyper. Being young, that will be one of THE events of his lifetime and wow, what an experience.
November 3, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
i have lived in chicago for the past 4 years, got to know obama from his first senate campaign. yesterday I was sent on a business trip to dallas for the next 3 weeks. It was bittersweet reading this over at fivethirtyeight.com:
“And I swore I’d be in Chicago tomorrow, and made sure of that, taking a bus to Chicago, spending most of my money, and didn’t give a damn, just as long as I’d be in Chicago tomorrow.”
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
So for all who made it to chicago tomorrow, celebrate for those of us that had to leave or for those who couldn't make it.
November 3, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Contact the Dallas Field office and see if there is any pro-Obama public gatherings/results and speech viewing parties you could possibly attend.
November 3, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's right Oh, and Fuck Ken Blackwell.
November 3, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
As if there was any question --- Toot's absentee ballot will be counted:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/11/obamas-grandm-1.html
November 3, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wondered how that worked, thanks!
November 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The head of our staging area operation referred to the county in which I live as a bellwether for the state of Florida.
If that's the case, McCain might be in trouble here with respect to his ground operation.
On our different routes home from work today, my sister and I saw disheveled men, who, to our eyes appeared to be amongst the homeless in our area holding up McCain signs at major intersections. It was a surreal specter.
If the McCain campaign is indeed recruiting our homeless population, this is no small irony. Sadly, these guys often stake out these intersections anyway. It probably makes little difference what their sign says as long as it brings in a little money.
If my sister and I are right, the incongruity is unsettling.
November 3, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Typical repug exploitation of poor.
November 3, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, salut to the man who started it all. Here is to you Doctor.
November 3, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aaaughh. It was meant as a reply to Amelie's Dr Howard Dean Tribute below.
November 3, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
A shout out to Howard Dean, thank you.
November 3, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Karl Rove
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
ROFLMAO
November 3, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well there you have it. We can all go to bed early tomorrow thanks to Karl.
November 3, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weee i saw my first Wright ad just now.
November 3, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was watching Olbermann and Rachel, they ran it several times, by goptrust.com. Disgusting ad and vicious lies. And I am in CA, a sure thing!
November 3, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually laugh every time I see that ad, because everyone knows that YOU CAN'T TRUST THE GOP!
It's like they went out of their way to name their PAC something that people would laugh at. If I didn't know better, I'd think that the Obama campaign set these guys up themselves to discredit the Wright attack.
GOPTrust. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....
November 3, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
For anyone who wonders why you shouldn't trust the exit polls this year, go back up to the post and look at how the Obama voters who voted early far outnumbered the mcShame voters. But exit polling (tomorrow) will be done with a different electorate, which has mcShame voters outnumbering Obama voters. That's in the early voting states of course. So that difference between the early voters and the voters tomorrow skews the exit-poll results in those states. And thus makes for nonsense if you're trying to understand why people voted as they did or why people of differing demographics voted as they did.
I'm sure Nate at 538 will give an excellent explanation of this and other exit poll factors. But you can get it glimmer of it yourself just using the data points gathered above. And then thinking out for yourself how this will skew the statistics - based upon this strange voter sample.
Why bother exit-polling at all if voting extends over weeks from now on? Even the polling they've done during the actual early voting can influence the voting that's going on. Again... makes no sense to me. (that would be the same as announcing the results of exit polling throughout election day!.... which they don't do, for that very reason!)
I have a feeling future polling will change as a result of this very election.
November 3, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are correct about the future of polling. Nate was on KO and said to ignore the exit polling and wait for the hard numbers, as it has been so unreliable in past elections.
November 3, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait to read his post on this.
November 3, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I gave- first time ever to a political campaign!- but did not volunteer. And so on election eve I want to offer a huge, heartfelt "thank you" to all those of you who have done so and are doing so through tomorrow. You are true patriots and the rest of us owe you, bigtime.
November 3, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here here!
November 3, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jesus, check out how many people are at the Virginia rally right now on CNN!
Anyone have an official tally?
November 3, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama just now expressed his appreciation to the "100,000" people attending the rally. Somebody in his campaign must have given him the number before he came out.
November 3, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just read an article in the Charlotte Observer that said they have about 2.5 million early voters so far, which is something like 41% of registered voters...
Obama will take about a 10-12% lead going into tomorrow's election. That's a hefty amount for McCain to overcome.
I can't believe I'm saying that about North Carolina. What a year.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/politics/story/296324.html
November 3, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is really, really stunning. Just a few months ago I figured North Carolina was still at least 4 years away from being a competitive state for Democrats at the Prez level. It is truly there now. Awesome!
I'll keep sending some positive Colorado vibes that way!
November 3, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I went to the Obama rally that happened to be at UNCC which is where iam a grad student at. 2.5 is what i heard on the radio on the way back home and i do also want to note that 3.5 million voted in 2004 in total. Yeah NC sure did turn out the vote early this year.
November 3, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it!! Talking about his tax plan, Obama just said, "We're going to give Joe a tax break, even if he doesn't want it."
November 3, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The McCain commercials on Monday Night Football are relentless, all those 527s burning their last funds. I just saw three in a row, all the lies lined up like antique grenades that forgot to go off.
November 3, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope we all understand the significance of having 100,000 souls on a late Monday night in red colored Virginia. Freaking very cool!
November 3, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia is also Redskin country. Right now is a Monday night home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. At 10:30 on a work/school night.
This is a HELL of a crowd.
November 3, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed with the folks about the crowd in Manassas. Awesome.
Need to remember - Prince William County, VA *isn't* as "Difty Fucking Hippy" liberal as Arlington or Alexandria. Webb barely cracked 50% there, and Kaine didn't get to 50%.
Obama polling in 100K there is just mind numbing.
In contrast, the McCain event in Henderson looks to have drawn 50 people. I exagerate just a bit.
John
November 3, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. Exaggeration forgiven.
November 3, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember it was
McCain-510
Obama -28
when it started!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/mccain-510-electoral-vote_n_140776.html
November 3, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please take some time to share this video with your undecided friends on this election eve. Watch this explosive new video on John McCain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0c_oI3eb2s
November 3, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't need that to win. We'll win on the issues, and let them resort to character assassination.
November 3, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
on the topic of early voting and getting out the vote, i wonder/worry if the great weather, enthusiasm, and large increases in newly registered voters aren't going to combine to create serious problems at the polls today. plenty of states, especially 'battleground' states, don't have any form of 'no-excuse' early voting...
i'm getting ready to go work the polls @ 6am and i'm expecting a clusterfuck. the city has tried to accommodate the anticipated turnout but 4 years ago voters at my precinct waited in line for 3 hours to cast ballots...
and waking up at 3am to find the power out in my neighborhood hasn't helped my anxiety. half my precinct was without power. paranoid as i am, i had to drive the neighborhood to check the extent of the outage (and check against armageddon... )
November 4, 2008 5:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
hahah you gotta check out htis video my friend showed me!
November 4, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana Intrade prices:
Obama- 62
McCain- 45
November 4, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink