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Poll: Obama Leads By Nine, Thanks To Economic Crisis And Debates
Obama heads into election day with a comfortable nine-point lead over McCain, a new Marist poll finds: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error, compared to Friday's release that had Obama up 50%-43%.
Assuming Obama ultimately wins the election tomorrow, the internals suggest that the combination of his solid debate performances and the economic anxieties created by the Wall St. meltdown helped him to seal the deal.
When asked what events sealed their decisions on who to vote for, 22% of Obama supporters named the debates, and another 11% named the economic crisis. Only 13% of McCain supporters said it was the debates, and five percent said it was the economic crash.
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You know.. I still do get a kick out of these Newsmax Ads running on here asking if Obama is "finished"
BTW, PPP's Georgia Poll shows Mccain only winning by 2, and the Senate race in a runoff.
November 3, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is wonderful news. I am so hoping to see Chambliss get his just rewards.
November 3, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Krugman on the Republicans' prospects, Op-Ed this morning:
"It will be the party of Saxby Chambliss, the senator from Georgia, who, observing large-scale early voting by African-Americans, warns his supporters that 'the other folks are voting'.”
Just rewards indeed.
November 3, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES!!!! I am telling you we are going to WIN GEORGIA! 396 electoral votes.
November 3, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of the debates, particularly the last one. I was watching Keith Olbermann's Greatest Hits of the Electioin (not what he called it, but basically what it was) and he showed the end of the third debate where McCain was wandering in front of Brokaw's shot, and you see Obama reach out and place his hand on McCain's back, as if he was trying to prevent him from further aimless wandering. Is that anyone else's take on it? (Not that it matters one whit--but it seemed like a nice thing for Obama to do. IF it were me, I probably would have let him wander. )
November 3, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I noticed the exact same thing. I thought it was a nice gesture, and reminiscent of Obama helping Bill Richardson during a primary debate know what question was asked when Richardson was clearly lost. Says a lot about his decency.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
November 3, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Decency" is exactly the word I was looking for.
Like what happened with Richardson, and also what happened in the first debate, when McCain was stumbling over Amadinejad's name ("That's a tough one").
He seems like a nice guy. Not that other presidents haven't been, of course, but it just seems more apparent with "That One".
November 3, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. That's exactly what Obama was doing - he reached out to McLame's shoulder to try to guide him back out of the camera, I think.
I have to say that I am taken totally by surprise that the debates figured that highly - and I like it.
After '04, where Kerry clobbered Bush in every debate, I had come to believe they didn't really matter that much. I was sure wrong and I'm glad I was. The debates were about as much issue-oriented campaigning that we got. I know Obama's ads were issue-oriented, for the most part, but those are still ads.
November 3, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
And, btw, Miss Tena, great thanks to you and to all who were able to donate more to the campaigns....we ALL do what we can......
November 3, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.
:)
November 3, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Tena, totally off-topic, but I wanted to share this with you, because I know you will enjoy it as much as I have. I have been reading blogs over at the National Review because I have been waiting to see conservatives crack under the strain, and today the anxiety is beginning to gush. This was the best part:
The answer, my dear fellows, is "no." No, the GOP cannot survive (or at least not the GOP as we presently know it) if Texas becomes a tossup, and yet Texas is becoming a tossup. And for that, we can all thank Gov Dean, Molly Ivins, and the good citizens of the Lone Star state. Won't it be sweet when the electoral map in 2012 looks like two blue parenthesis around a thin, red streak running from Idaho to Alabama?
November 3, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
No exaggeration - that brought tears to my eyes.
Thank you.
I'm really holding onto some outrageous hopes -
November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're not the only one who's dying to see Texas turn blue....
November 3, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will supercharge Texas to make it a tossup in 2012..........wait forget it 23% STILL thinks he is a Muslim. Make that 2016.
November 3, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting no other state was polled to see what percentage of each believes that.
You can't tell me that everyone who shows up at a Palin rally is from Texas.
November 3, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Wayne & Garth would say in Cantonese - ZANG!!! :-)
November 3, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Election fatigue: When you read the first line of this blog as:
November 3, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
HA! I read it the exact same way and was just going to make the same comment!
GMTA I guess :)
November 3, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well heck, everyone knows that those Marists are a bunch of commie socialist do-gooders, what with all that helping poor people throughout the world action they've been doing for a couple of hundred years.
November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that's funny. I had to do a doubletake as well. heh.
November 3, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trick at this stage is not increasing voter support but making sure your supporters vote. You have to know who they are and you have to shepherd them to the polls.
This, in essence, is the ground game.
And this also happens to be one of the few aspects of politics that has a reliable metric AND a reliable means of measuring it.
More interesting is that you can do it, in real time, for your own home town.
Here's how:....
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=24082
http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=24137
This is very easy, very straightforward.
November 3, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Election Official Explains the REAL Reason For Long Lines
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4590
November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe we could also credit Barack for the lead!
Here's the day for this: Les-Mizbarak
http://www.thedailytube.com/video/12761/les-mizbarack
November 3, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric needs to work on people skills
November 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric needs to work on people skills
November 3, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
A good friend of mine just informed me that he went to college with Eric. He had some funny things to say about him.
November 3, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word straight up!
I'm getting pissed at all these assertions that if the stock market hadn't crashed, Obama wouldn't be winning.
The hell.
Even the left consistently underestimates Barack Obama.
November 3, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm waiting to see how the currency exchange markets react. That's a fast and reliable indicator how the world interprets the election. Right now, it's been steady at .76 euro cents to the dollar. Best I've ever seen was .84 euro cents.
November 3, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I notice the markets are calming down a bit as the magnitude and certainty of a Barack win become clear.
November 3, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but the foreign exchange rate is an instance pulse of the global economy. And it can move faster than greased lightening fast.
November 3, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, but , I've been assured that the IBD/TIPP is the most accurate poll in the entire history of polling EVER! And it shows only a 2 point lead for Obama, and him well under 50% - which when combined with MOEDemocratweightingbiasPUMABradleyeffectvoterswakingupto Obamaisasocialistwhoismanipulatingpollnumbers means that McCain is actually WINNING! Why in the AOL straw poll he even takes Illinois, Mass. and California. Can Obama match that?!!!
I didn't think so!!
November 3, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't take such abuse Eric!
November 3, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT but how funny is this! These guys have given up on even trying to defend what they say as being somehow true... They're simply saying they have a right to lie!
I love WI politics!
November 3, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans: Standing for the Right to Lie!
November 3, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey folks, thats what I called a "community organizer". Sarah needs to take page from BO's book.
November 3, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little OT, but this weekend I actually heard Pat Buchanan say that (paraphrasing) if Obama only wins the election by 3-5 pts., it will show that he still has problems connecting with the American people. It was self-parody at its finest.
November 3, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sheeeit - they are openly laughing at Pat on MSNBC these days. He's the side-show -they wind him up and then watch him bloviate and shake their heads and laugh and Rachel always looks like she's gonna cry, she feels so sorry for him.
Pat's an old fraud. All jakeleg preachers are frauds and that's how he started out.
November 3, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday was Pat's birthday and the gal on Saturday wished him an advance Happy Birthday. You can tell there is a personal affection for Pat in a crazy uncle sort of way.
November 3, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
O yes. I completely agree.
November 3, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
uuuuhhhh....if he wins, I think that it is definitely possible he really does connet with the people, just not the right kind.
November 3, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
What ? A Marist poll with no tightening narrative ? Shocking...
November 3, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've heard from two people at work this morning that Obama may appear on SNL tonight, but I've neither seen or heard anything online or on tv.
SNL is doing an election special tonight - maybe they're keeping an Obama appearance secret?
Has anyone heard anything legitimate about this? I sure haven't.
November 3, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was that report from a week or so ago that Obama might appear on the "final" SNL, which at the time everyone logically assumed would be the one on Saturday night. Also, I've noticed in the promos for tonight's special, they keep saying, "You never know who might show up," or something like that. Could be, I guess.
November 3, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rick Davis insists somebody deliberately dropped the x from that poll's name.
November 3, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hahaha, that's a good one!
November 3, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm reading an essay by John dean about NcCain and Palin and came across something to share:
Altemeyer has spent 25 years researching this behavior. Amazing he's so on the money with the repugs mental male-up.
November 3, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
That sounds right to me.
The way I see it is that this a psychological trait of these people. At a different time in history, rather than Repugs, they would have been the Russians under Stalin ratting out their roommates for not being sufficiently doctrinaire.
It is a really a matter of who they are - a the Repugs meet their criteria for government.
November 3, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink