Poll: Obama Has Banked Big Lead In Early Vote
With early voting now coming to an end, a new CBS poll finds that Barack Obama has already banked a massive lead going into Election Day, which John McCain will have a tough job overcoming.
The numbers: Among the subset of early voters, Obama has built up a lead of 57%-38%. Among all likely voters, including both the early vote and those people who haven't gone yet, it's 54%-41%.
With the common estimate being that roughly one third of all ballots cast this year will be early votes, this means McCain would have to win the the remaining votes on Election Day by a margin of nearly ten points just to eke out a narrow win in the overall popular vote.
It's possible for McCain to do this -- and the internals show that the early voters are disproportionately self-identified Democrats -- but it's definitely a tough job.
All we have to do it get almost as many democrats and repug registers on election day.
November 1, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Possible?
Right...
John
November 1, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charles Cook just conceded that he totally missed what has happened with Obama's candidacy.
"It's not a campaign. It's an IPO" referring to the amount raised
November 1, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS....
November 1, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
CANT
November 1, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indemnify
November 1, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if I like this information being out there so much. I would prefer if Democrats thought it was a lot closer. Not TPM's responsibility obviously but the chance that this sort of info might motivate Republicans and de-motivate Democrats is the one thing that's going to keep worrying me as election day creeps nearer.
November 1, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry. With attacks from Repugs growing stronger in the next three days, it will boost GOTV for us. Also, in swing states there are actually volunteers who'll not let up until almost every one votes.
November 1, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it's worth, I was out canvassing in Obama friendly St. Louis county and nobody I talked to sounded overly confident in the least. Nobody thought this was a done deal and most were still very nervous about the outcome.
From this small sample, I can tell you that complacency is not a problem.
November 1, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mason, I volunteer in St Louis county as well (in Creve Coeur) and I know exactly what you mean, everyone feels like were behind and we need every single vote for us to win this thing.
November 2, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry. I think the worry about complacency is silly. This (the most emailed article on nytimes.com today) explains why. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/us/politics/01angst.html?em
After losing two elections they felt they should have won, no group of people are more motivated than Democrats.
November 1, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I had a door to door Obama Camp. volunteer from California knock on my door today. She'd already covered all of El Prado.
November 1, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm, well I've been making phone calls in rock-solid Dem country Massachusetts, and I'm not particularly pleased with the voters I'm reaching (using Democratic voter lists) outside Boston regarding their support for Obama.
Me no likey. This race is keeping me up nights. And if, after this stunt with Obama's elderly aunt about to be deported, McCain/Palin prevail on Tuesday, I'm looking for a new country. That's probably what they want, but it's something I'll be glad to give 'em.
November 2, 2008 6:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or it will deflate/discourage Republicans from even bothering to stand in line for an hour+ to vote feeling that Obama has it wrapped up - the psychology cuts both ways.
November 1, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point.
November 1, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
More likely, I think.
November 1, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree -- when just 13% of McScum supporters say they are excited (per AP) -- unless they kidnap people to vote for him.
November 1, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent point, Jonzie.
November 1, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Republicans apparently are worried it will cut them at least as deeply. Otherwise, I don't think they'd be trying so desperately to convince the media that the race is tightening and Obama's "trying to find" 270.
November 1, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
How postive of you Jonze! Way to go!
November 1, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or it may make people more fired up! And ready to go out and vote!
Actually, I doubt these numbers will get played up by the cable networks -- certainly not as much as the Zogby one-day aberration was this morning. They want people to think the race is down to the wire, after all.
And, less cynically, the nets are going to be cautious about jumping to conclusions because this election has more wild cards than usual. There's the difficulty of predicting just how massive turnout will be, how many young people will actually show, whether there will be a Bradley effect, whether there will be a reverse Bradley effect (Reagan Dems and others who break for Obama). Even come Tuesday night, the nets may take a bit longer than usual to make their state calls.
November 1, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it's worth, I'm pretty damn confident that Obama is going to win, and I also live in a completely safe blue state (CA), but yet there's "no power in the 'verse" that can stop me from voting for Obama come this Tuesday! Quite frankly, I'm ecstatic about the prospect of finally--FINALLY!--having my voice heard, and I suspect my sentiments can be echoed by countless other Bush-weary Democrats.
November 1, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. I'm in similarly blue country here in CT, but I have never been so excited to cast a vote in my entire life.
November 1, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anything is theoretically "possible," but at this point there's no *evidence* to show it is at all likely to happen. The polls would all have to be dramatically incorrect, meaning that everyone overestimated the turnout among new voters (belied by the apparently HUGE turnout so far), and a bunch of people lied to pollsters. Possible? Sure. But it's better than 90-10 at this point. And, it is surely not excellent news for McCain.
November 1, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Every vote counts. We can't take the lead for granted. Every citizen must do their part and vote. Better to win by a landslide then lose by a small margin.
November 1, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Memo to Fred Barnes,
Re: Your rant about all those poor people voting early.
Don't trip on the steps on your way up the guillotine!
November 1, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding. Could he sound any more prissy?
November 1, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
No shit. That was one of the most pathetic, whiny rants I've heard. The gall. And, before it cut off, was the interviewer *agreeing*???
"Poor old people". Fuckwit.
Where can I get ahold of this stain?
November 1, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The interviewer is Mort Kondrake, the "liberal" of the two. Remember, FOX is fair and balanced. Mort is perhaps the biggest sell out in American journalism, he used to have something resembling a spine but now seems content to cash his checks from Rodger. He's a regular on the show along with Barnes (who's always been about as big a dick as you see in the video) and I find the arrangement even more pathetic than the dominant/submissive drama of H&C, not that I can stomaching watching any of it really but sometimes after a few drinks I give it a try.
November 1, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't say I'm very upset about people going on Fox News and telling their viewers to stay home.
November 1, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good one.
November 2, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
And It's possible, Eric, that I may still sprout wings and be crowned the Queen of the Fairies.
I think the universe is basically just possibilities on the quantum level. So on the quantum level, McLame might have a slightly better chance than a snowball in hell.
November 1, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
My avatars got their wings, and I'd crown you Queen of the Fairies, if you'd really like that title...
November 1, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This damn fishing tournement is a boomerang, we have 60 people entered at $30 entry fee, we already have $1800 dollars from the Republicans, were thinking maybe we donate the proceeds to the Dem party!
November 1, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
November 1, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
This damn fishing tournement is a boomerang, we have 60 people entered at $30 entry fee, we already have $1800 dollars from the Republicans, were thinking maybe we donate the proceeds to the Dem party!
November 1, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
No Eric it isn't
November 1, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama Galluping away. "Largest lead yet" now at 10 points, and probably will gain a point or two between now and Monday.
To our republican friends in Colorado, Nevada, and ARIZONA save your gas on Tuesday. Watch some tv instead, watch some early numbers from the east coast. Same to our republican friends in Montana, North, and South Dakota.
November 1, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd love to believe this poll, but its Party ID breakdown is as troubling as Zogby, just in the opposite direction.
They weighted Registered voters to:
375D 254R 291I
That's:
40.7% D
27.6% R
31.6% I
I'm sorry, but +13D is excessive.
If this poll had reasonable party ID weights, it would probably be +6 or +7 Obama, which is perfectly fine.
November 1, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
But the universe of this poll is early voters, where those identified with Democrats dominate.
November 1, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Kind of difficult to apply normal party ID weighting to a poll in which the party ID weighting is one of the unknowns for which you're polling.
November 1, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, no, I'm referring to the overall poll numbers, not the early vote numbers.
I repeat, the weighted party ID for this poll (of all voters, not the early sample) is crazy biased to +D by 13.
Using a reasonable party ID weighting, you'd find Obama +7 or so, in the overall likely voter numbers.
November 2, 2008 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
To help pass the time till Tuesday, there are some great Obama photos here if you haven't seen them:
http://digitaljournalist.org/issue0810/callie-bp.html
November 1, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ann, Great Photo Blog with plenty of pics. Thanks.
November 1, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT......CNN reports that McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds has responded to Dick Cheney's endorsement of McCain-Palin, showing just how much they like Dick: "Barack Obama and Dick Cheney aren't just cousins; they've shared support for the Bush energy policy and the out-of-control spending that John McCain has fought to oppose."
November 1, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, some McCain hack was just on with David Schuster saying basically the same thing.
I think it's a little late in the game to be trying to make the case that Obama = Bush.
November 1, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's an incredibly stupid attempt. I don't see how it would've worked even if they had done so earlier.
November 1, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's an incredibly stupid attempt. I don't see how it could've worked even if they had done so earlier.
November 1, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cousins? LMAO! Oh yeah, remind everyone that Obama is white too and comes from a good family...except the terrorist Cheney.
November 1, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama = Cheney. Good luck with that one, Tucker.
November 1, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I though McCombover's "Look! Obama actually supports me!" advert was the last gasp of desperation.
But I forgot...every time McSlime reaches the bottom of the barrel, he gets a new, deeper barrel. Obama=Cheney...hahahaha...yeah, that's going to work.
See that tide going out, Tucker? That's you and the Repugs...and don't hold your breath waioting for it to come back in anytime soon.
November 2, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama and Cheney are cousins, doesn't that make Obama a "real American"?
November 1, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are pounding miles and miles of pavement in west central Florida this weekend to encourage people to take advantage of extended early voting. My canvassing buddy and I knocked on 111 doors today.
We came across two undecideds. One didn't know who Sarah Palin was. Go figure.
The massive turnout here is astonishing. All the parking spaces were taken at the courthouse and surrounding areas at 3:45 today. The place was packed. Closing time was 4:00.
The early voter stats look good. I'm cautiously optimistic.
November 1, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news, thanks much.
November 1, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your work!
November 1, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena: I wanted you to check this out, and see what you think. I am dumbfounded, actually.
http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/rove-appointee-sends-ugly-message-wo
November 1, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Without knowing more, this is what I think:
And involuntary intoxication is not a defense to any crime - that's first year of law school shit.
Now, resuming my defense attorney role, I don't like inchoate offenses - they approach thought crimes. I find conspiracy problematical.
However, if I was an Asst. AG, I'd sure as shit charge them.
November 1, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.
November 1, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's obviously political and obviously stinks.
I thought it was pretty breathtaking when the sitting president tried to wield the power of the Executive to try to effect an election.
I thought it was great when the DOJ said: No, don't think so.
This really stinks given the nature of the situation - the guy is an asshole and he's doing this for political reasons which makes me sick.
November 1, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you meant voluntary intoxication is not a defense?
November 1, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. - thanks.
November 1, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a great way to work off all this anxiety.
November 1, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where are you canvassing? A few days ago the numbers were about 50/50 for Dems and Republican early voting turnout in Sarasota County. Is it better where you are?
I was phonebanking for the I4 corridor today. Talked to some people who had early voted in central Florida. I think that's a good sign.
Thanks so much for the canvassing! The Palin story is hysterical.
November 1, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm canvassing in Pinellas. Our early voting numbers have been a bit low compared to other districts that offer an adequate number of early polling places. We have only three: two in mid-county and one in St. Pete.
As of last Tuesday more than twice as many registered democrats had voted early as republicans here. There were almost as many "other" voters as republicans. I suspect they're Ron Paul supporters. He has a sizable following in these parts.
As of last Tuesday republicans were ahead with vote by mail/absentee ballots, but the spread should be tightening.
You're right, though. It's been close, but it's far from over. Our local office has a shuttle to take people to early vote. We came across a fellow today who can't drive due to an illness. The Obama office here is so well organized, they were able to have a ride at his house to take him to the courthouse to vote within 30 minutes of our knocking on his door.
There are so many people working together to bring this to fruition. It's very heartening.
November 1, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand that Eric is trying to be impartial. But honestly I think the age of "fair and balanced" impartial news reporting is over. I like reading Josh's opinions because I know his bias. He has stated it and made it quite clear where his own personal bias comes from. Knowing that I can make my own judgements about what he says. So, Eric might be erring on the side of impartial caution, but he is doing so in a moment when that is no longer needed or desirable.
But I still appreciate his efforts and I recognize that he is on my(our) team. And I suppose it is still possible for McCain to win, if people on our team just stay home on Tuesday. So, in that sense Eric is doing a service, even if his endless caveats over the last month have worn a bit thin.
That being said, I really, really hope that, after Obama kicks ever-loving ass on Tuesday, Eric posts up a headline that merely says
"We FUCKIN' won, boys and girls, we fuckin' won!!"
November 1, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are exactly right.
Being biased towards justice and democracy is no vice.
Being biased towards the 3% to 5% of people who have concentrated wealth and political power is no virtue.
Bias can blind you. But I'm talking about heart.
November 1, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to ask a really stupid question...don't get too mad, please. How do these pollsters get their information? Are they using 'exit polls'? Or are they calling people, asking them if they voted early, and how they voted? Everything in the post seems so certain....I just don't understand how they can BE so certain!! We all know how exit polls don't work..remember Kerry?
November 1, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Different pollsters have different methods.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
I think Nate Silver has information here.
November 1, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
This specific poll was done of registered voters by phone (both land-line and cell).
I can't imagine any of these polls right now being based on exit polls....it just seems much easier and cheaper to be able to pick up the phone and dial people at random. I could be wrong, though.
November 1, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kerry only lead in one poll prior to election day, by one point. He was down on average by 2 to 4 points over the last two weeks. Were 72 hours out, and there's no perceptible movement from McCain. Gore closed fast, and Kerry Bush didn't break.
Obama is stretching his lead right now. Watch the majors on Sunday night, and listen to the words used to describe the state of things. I'm not worried, or fearful, just enjoying every second of this.
November 1, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was wondering about those numbers, thanks for the info.
November 1, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm starting to settle into enjoying this myself.
November 1, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I'm enjoying is the occasional inane poll from Zogby, touted by Drudge, that's throwing wingnuts into a tizzy. Kind of keeps their hopes up, thus ensuring they'll feel on election night like we felt in 2004.
Ah, schadenfreude.
November 1, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
As i have said before on many posts, McCain's only shot at a win right now is the Bradly Affect.
November 1, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'm sad to say that I've got some good news for McCain: it seems that he won the mock election at my daughter's elementary school 58-42. I live in a VERY conservative area (Bush won here 66-33) and I guess this is a good indication of what children are hearing from their parents at home. As dismal as things have been lately, I'm surprised the McCain campaign hasn't issued a press release trumpeting their "success".
November 1, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chin up.
In a way the mock election contains good news for Obama. The Democratic candidate is up by nine from four years ago and the Republican is down by eight.
Sounds like real progress.
November 1, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It should be a bold red headline on Drudge within the hour.
November 1, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry, check out the National student/parent Mock Electiion that my school participated in. Also too there is the Scholastic Magazine election. Obama won and Scholastic has only been wrong twice, Truman and Nixon. http://www.nationalmockelection.org/viewresults.html
November 2, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, long-time lurker here. I live in Jamaica and have been following the US elections -- love politics, still have the Time and Newsweek covers of the Clinton win in 92.
I hope Obama wins -- although i was a Hillary supporter, lol. Anyway, all my relatives and friends in the States plan on voting for Obama.
Shoutout to HusseinTenaX, kash79 and jzap -- love reading your comments, LOL.
November 1, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.
Nice to see you.
November 1, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every annoying talking head in the media loves to say "McCain needs to draw an inside straight" if he is to win this.
I'm so sick of this. I would love it if someone would just tell the truth and say "John McCain's needs to pull a golden horsehoe out of his ass and throw a ringer, blindfolded, with his hands tied behind his back to win this thing."
November 1, 2008 11:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
No shit. Frankly, McCain would have a much better shot at drawing to an inside straight on the river card at the WSOP Final next year than he does winning this election.
November 2, 2008 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, real good comment. Inside straight, *my ass!* Thanks.
November 2, 2008 3:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm watching the Obama rally in Springfield, MO over at cnn.com. Obama just guessed that the crowd was 40K.
If he's right that's an amazing number for a deep red area like southwest Missouri. I was one of the 100K in St. Louis, but 40K in Springfield is arguably more impressive (and encouraging.)
This campaign continues to amaze me.
November 1, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was watching the rally too and thought the same. A big crowd late at night in a deep red area, AND the rally was full of optimism and excitement. That was great to see.
November 1, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just watched McScum's SNL skit with Tina Fey. It was actually very funny. A striking difference from the Palin skit the other day (where she obviously couldn't remember a skit of more than a couple of words).
November 1, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
John AND Cindy were on SNL tonight - Who's the celebrity wannabe John? Even your wife wanted in on the action knowing that this is it for the both of you.
November 1, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm watching the BET hip hop awards and the GOTV message could not be more dominant.
There's a huge picture of Obama over the stage, just in case anyone forgets what's at stake.
I'm loving this to pieces. God I love this - Obama got the entire goddamn country up on its feet and voting. I fucking love this.
Democrats win when people vote. Vote hasn't fallen off because of apathy - that was not a cause - it was the effect of years of Repug voter intimidation and vote suppression.
November 1, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's absolutely right, Tena.
Was anyone else in on the Obama conference call tonight? He had just landed and was on his way to the rally in Springfield. A couple of very good signs from the campaign--especially in North Carolina today.
Basically, though, his message was the one he's given consistently: get every young person you know out to the polls, and we win. And if you've voted already, go cheer up the people who are standing in the long lines come election day. Let them know that standing in a long line is the patriotic thing to do.
November 2, 2008 12:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was on the call. It was a nice close to a day of canvassing in North St. Louis County.
November 2, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric
You wrote "With the common estimate being that roughly one third of all ballots cast this year will be early votes,..." At least here in North Texas that one third is ridiculously low.
Tarrant County Texas (Fort Worth) just reported early voting turn out of 459,856 voters out of total registration of 965,524. That's 47.6% of total registration that has already turned out.
Dallas County next door had turnout of about 477,455 voters with total registration of over 1.2 million voters, or about 40% of registered voters.
My experience in Tarrant County (reported from memory) has been that turnout has usually run a little over 60% of registered voters, with about half of them early voters. My guess is that another 35% or so will turn out Tuesday. That's probably optimistic, but I think that this is a good time to be optimistic, even with the Texas economy doing better than most other parts of the U.S.
I have no scientific way of telling which way the voters voted, but the Republicans have always had a higher turnout than Democrats. That would mean there is a lot more room for improvement for Democrats than for Republicans. The remarkably high turn out for the Democratic caucuses suggests that the Democrats will be out. I wouldn't be optimistic enough to anticipate an Obama victory, but I am pretty sure it's going to be a lot closer than the Republicans will be happy with.
This is an ideocentric local view of the early voting in North Texas and what it might suggest. It sure is different from any other election I have ever known here.
November 1, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that.
The primary in Dallas Co. was unlike anything I'd ever experienced.
Wow - it sounds promising.
November 1, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, I'm in safe blue WA. It's still exciting to look up different counties and see what the ballot return rate is.
King Co. (Seattle) has about 75% of their voters signed up for absentee/vote by mail. Of those, 47% have returned ballots.
Clark Co (Vancouver-sw WA) is all vote by mail and as of Saturday, 54.7% of all ballots are in.
The good things about vote by mail are a higher turnout rate and everyone votes on paper. The bad thing is, all the signatures on the outside envelopes have to be verified before the ballot can be counted so it can take a long time to get results, especially if many ballots are turned in on election day. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
November 1, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, TheOtherWA, Snohomish County is vote by mail. I certainly enjoy the ease of voting. I am shocked reading about people in other parts of the country standing in line for 6 and 8 hours. They are to be commended.
Yes, WA is solid blue, but I am concerned about the race for governor and also the 8th District. Keeping my fingers crossed. Also, Yes on #1000 and #1029. We get ignored by both major parties here for the most part, but it doesn't make us any less interested. I've actually been receiving robocalls from both sides in the last few days. Kind of made me feel like a real part of it!
November 2, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
What happened with Dino's deposition?
Have they handcuffed him and marched him off to prison yet?
November 2, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm worried about the governor's race too. It's too close right now for comfort, based on the latest polls. Haven't seen any polling on I-1000.
I can't imagine standing in line for 6 hours to vote. The first couple of elections I did by mail, it seemed weird. I missed the ritual of going to a polling place. Seeing what the rest of the country's putting up with makes me appreciate it a whole lot more.
November 2, 2008 6:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the skit with Tina Fey reall shows the split between McCain and Palin. Tina is so clearly playing Palin as a moron it's a bit cringe-inducing for me to see McCain standing next to her, "also too".
November 1, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question:
How big an electoral vote difference must the election be to be considered a "landside," or voter "mandate," type of result? Is there generally agreed upon spread?
November 1, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remember the conservative media blathering about Bush having a mandate with his 52% win in 2004. They were so relieved he "won" the popular vote that time. (Let's not talk about Ohio, ok?)
Bush was entitled to go after all his dream policies since he had this so called mandate.
I want to see these same pundits eat their words next week.
November 2, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's just the start. I was thinking - people see that actually getting out and voting can change things, lots of things could start changing.
:)
November 2, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I remember that too, and all the talk about Bush spending his political capital. Didn't make sense to me, then or now, given how close the race was.
November 2, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
I recall Cheney had some flippant remark about the National Debt and Bush spending and he said to the extent "F*** worrying about the debt, we have a mandate".
November 2, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm, it's just when the consensus is you win by a large margin. As in Obama either wins by 5 or 6 percentage points or if he reaches 350 EV's. Then you can declare you were given a mandate from the people. I actually watched a DVD on Presidencial amndates from Lincoln to Reagan. You should look it up, it's a good watch.
November 2, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to burn his political capital on universal healthcare - energy independence and the economic crisis are bi-partisan issues. Future candidates will not dare uninsure folks after Obama would get them covered - it would be guaranteed votes for the other candidate and political suicide.
I have a feeling the GOP will try and fake a fight over an issue and try to fake that Obama is using up political capital there.
November 2, 2008 12:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Been grooving to some amazing palladia music all night here. The calm I settled into a few days ago just keeps getting better. We're going to win big. Believe it.
November 1, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain supporter denies candy to children of Obama supporters
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/mccain-supporter-denies-c_n_140075.html
I'm ashamed to say she is from my home state but she does live in a Detroit suburb that is very white, rich and waspy.
Shame on her.
November 2, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that. It's funny how the reporter makes sure to clearly state the woman's name and where she lives. Hopefully people don't go too hard on her, since she is filled with enough hate as it is.
November 2, 2008 12:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I noticed that and what's even funnier is that reporter is from a local Fox station.
November 2, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I found that part hilarious, it's about time to T-P that house.
November 2, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
If it's in Grosse Point, trust me, she's got instant security service. T-P-ing takes way too long. Gotta be something quick. Like with dog poop.
November 2, 2008 6:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, warm and fuzzy all over after watching, and wasn't she handing out M&M peanuts? Most kids don't like the peanuts, has the woman never been around children?
November 2, 2008 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Everything is possible, Eric, including you waking up to the reality at some point.
November 2, 2008 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Possible? I would like to know how. McCain would have to blow Obama's doors off on Tuesday to overcome such a deficit, and he has no real ground game to be able to do that. There is no evidence of complacency that I have seen. Eric, you do not have to couch everything. I just watched Cook with Matthews, and he is simply in awe of what is going to happen, and what is happening with the early voting. Cook is the one guy who I trust with these things; he was on the money in 06.
By the way, Zogby has BHO up by 6, or as Drudge has it 5.7. The electorate is like cement now.
November 2, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
With Drudge, it is going to be an effortless transition from (1) his ever pissing his malodorous pants giddily about the latest obscure erroneous outlier poll favoring McCain, to (2)upcoming false statements about "irregularities" that will have caused the election to be "stolen" in Obama's favor.
November 2, 2008 3:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
When you get a dog at the pound, first they check that it won't bite or they wouldn't approve it for adoption. If they have any profesionalism, they do, for one thing because the consequences can otherwise be very negative for them.
You should check that they did this, and if you don't, you're being careless.
McCain has got a biter in Bible Spice, and the fact that he never checked is a further mar on his now disgraced record of "erratic" leadership.
November 2, 2008 3:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The morning Zogby -
O - 49.5 %
M - 43.8 %
John's back to that rock solid number .... 43. He's been chained to that number for weeks. It floats around, but never far from 43. The number Bush loved to call himself.
November 2, 2008 5:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good one on 43. Another proof Mcinsane is indeed Bushie boy.
November 2, 2008 6:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please stay way from Zogby. He makes up his numbers.
November 2, 2008 7:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tech stuns No. 1 Texas, 39-33
Sweet.
November 2, 2008 5:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice to hear that the early voting is strong for Obama, but it makes me wonder: Will this skew Tuesday's votes in McCain's favor?
November 2, 2008 6:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
No Matter what the polls say GOTV counts! We need to make this a referendum - no doubt that we the citizens want to bury George W. and his doppelganger McSame once and for all. This, if all possible must be a landslide to clearly demonstrate to the repubs and more importantly the world that we reject everything Bush stands for and that we want our country back.
Additionally, a vote for Obama is a vote for good management and what this country needs is someone with intellect, common sense and the ability to seek out advisors who know something rather then relying on "gut". We can all see clearly where "gut" has gotten us.
Let's get America back - vote Obama.
November 2, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink