Poll: More Think Obama Won't Be Able To Do Much To Improve The Economy
An interesting number from the new ABC poll:
How much do you think Obama will be able to do to improve the economy -- a great deal, a good amount, only some or not much at all?Great deal/good amount: 44%
Some/not much: 49%
That 44% who hold out high hopes is down from 50% nearly a month ago, suggesting that the campaign rhetoric highs that people had been enjoying have worn off.
The numbers also suggest that Obama has partially succeeded in the absolutely crucial task of depressing immediate expectations for his economic performance, which could help him govern by buying him time to deliver results.
Separately, the poll finds that 67% approve of the way he's handling the transition. And 66% approve of Hillary as Secretary of State, including a surprisingly high 65% of independents -- another sign of the surprising degree to which her Dem primary campaign erased some of Hillary's image as a polarizing figure.
Late Update: As a commenter argues below, another obvious factor here is that the economy has tanked even more in the last month, deepening public pessimism. Either way, it's better for Obama, of course, if the public doesn't expect too much too fast.















Had to get in a clinton post for the day. I thought that we might get by a single day without a post. Congrats.
November 24, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
that's just silly -- you really want me not to report on what's in the poll so that you don't have to read the name Hillary?
bizarre...
November 24, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, why don't you call her clinton? Calling her by her first name really is disrespectful. You don't refer to anyone else by their first name. You don't say barack or george or dick or joe. Bizarre.
Also, the point is who really cares? She's secretary of state. You said it three days ago, so it's a done deal. Who cares?
November 24, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael, this is really a mashed bag of mixed signals. Your comments. If Greg's in the tank for Hillary Clinton, wouldn't he refer to her as Clinton, and Obama as Barack? Diminish Barack by using his first name?
November 24, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, the hillary line is to be touchy feely. I find it offensive though and disrespectful of the offices that she has held, from the senate, through the presidential run, to now secretary of state. It's orders from headquarters to use her first name.
November 24, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the first name usage is primarily due to one thing: there's another famous Clinton still active on the stage, and I'm not aware of any other famous person named Hillary—at least not who's running in the same circles. (No offense intended, Hilarym.)
From that one thing flows a second: it's how she referred to herself during her campaign—Hillary '08 and all that.
November 24, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know she prefers to be addressed as Hillary.
But I agree with Michael, a reporter should probably address her as Sen.Clinton.
Anyway, I hope no one accuses Greg of bias when he begins to call her Madame Seceratary.
November 24, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I also try to refer to her as Senator Clinton, since that removes any ambiguity while retaining the professional tenor. It's reasonable to claim that it's unprofessional to use her first name, but to claim that it's offensive to refer to her by her first name seems a bit of a stretch, all things considered.
November 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Simple observation:
On Hillary's campaign signs it said "Hillary"
On Obama's campaign signs it said "Obama"
I'd say this was a trivial discussion, but at least we aren't fretting about how/why to use the abuse report button for a few minutes.
November 24, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. I agree it's a trivial discussion.
2. Who cares what the campaign signs say? Who cares about the polling on clinton? Who cares? Just because someone want's to demean the office that they are running for doesn't mean that you have to go along with it.
3. The original point was that a day can't go by without seeing clinton spin and posts. She was pronounced as secretary of state three days ago. It's done, let's move on.
November 24, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think my head is going to explode. Some commenters are annoyed when first names are used to refer to Obama. When it's "Hillary", it's to be "touchy feely"? Greg Sargent? Your interpretation is at odds with the typical interpretation about the use of first names. It's to diminish in size and importance the individual.
I don't perceive Greg Sargent to be the touchy feely type. I really do not.
As for the headquarter comment? I really have nothing to say.
November 24, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, we agree to disagree. I didn't mean to imply the sargent was "touchy feely." That was supposed to be tied into the orders from headquarters part of the comment. I think the use of first names diminishes the office, not the individual.
November 24, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please...not again.
November 24, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Replying to this stuff is a waste of your time, and frankly, it's not really something you should be doing, IMO. You sound defensive, and you need not be.
November 24, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think it was Hillary's primary campaign that made her less polarizing -- it was how she ended it and then her performance throughout the general election campaign.
I was harshly critical of the way her campaign was run before she conceded, but even I was impressed at tone she set in her convention speech and the amount of campaigning she did for Obama. And while she wouldn't have been my first choice, I have no problem with her being secretary of state so long as she really is implementing Obama's foreign policy.
November 24, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that that was important, but her economic appeals to blue collar whites (whatever you think of them) really was key too in her broader transformation
November 24, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Greg, but she also got a lot of that vote because she was running against a black man. And wasn't above playing to those "hard working white people."
But hey - she'll be a great SOS!
November 24, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deflation will be Obama's biggest opponent as this crisis looms larger.
November 24, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
ooops. forgot to take off the reply tag. Regrets.
November 24, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep hearing about the threat of deflation. Could someone more learned in the dismal science than I explain how we could possibly have deflation when the Treasury and the Fed are pumping about half a GNP's worth of cash into the system?
I mean, I suppose it could happen if the banks just pile all that cash up in the basement and sleep on it like a bunch of dragons
November 24, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here ya go:
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=975811
This article also helps break it down:
http://useconomy.about.com/b/2008/11/20/deflation-greatest-threat-to-us-economy-right-now.htm
Energy costs are dropping, as are home prices. We are experiencing it already. The question is: does it go across the board?
I've noticed it already with my father's business: he is a beef farmer, prices have gone down and will probably continue to go down (after a possible bump from the holiday season- fingers-crossed). He is receiving less profit on his turn around from buying feeder cattle, rasing them, and then selling them when they are full grown and ready for steak, etc.
November 24, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama has partially succeeded in the absolutely crucial task of depressing expectations for his economic performance"
That's the way to instill confidence!
Convince us that death is around the corner so should we should all feel really, really grateful about only being critically injured with a lousy prognosis for recovery.
Courageous of him don't you agree?
November 24, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps he should tell us how he will succeed rather than trying to convince us to accept his preconceived failure.
November 24, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
*Preconceived troll jizz*
November 24, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Being consumed my unreasonable hatred is just not healthy.
I'm referring to your posts in general beginning pre-election days.
November 24, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You miss a more logical conclusion: in the last month things have cratered worse for the economy. At some point it's clear that the president can only do so much.
Obama's biggest problem is that his "buying time" isn't going to happen. It's still 2 full months before he has his hands on the controls -- that's already 2 more months of free-fall and lame duck government.
While I don't expect him to be working closely with GWB over the next two months, I expect he is already on the phone with Sr Dem and GOP leaders to get as much of a jump start on Jan 20 as possible.
November 24, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is standard practice to poll people on their opinions of how the transition is being handled? Anyone know?
November 24, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, yeah. Deflation is going to cause big problems.
November 24, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, count me as among those who believes Obama will not be able to improve the economy a great deal.
It's not his fault. I just have a feeling we're in the middle ofa category 4 hurricane and very likely it will spiral into a category 5 before the end of the years.
Too many variables are out of his control.
November 24, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
As you note, the degree to which a president's actions can affect the economy is often overstated.
The question really is whether he is taking steps to make it better (as Obama clearly will) or make it worse (as Bush did for much of his time in office).
I think the appropriate parallel here is to FDR, who tried anything and everything to get the economy back on track. Though the New Deal didn't actually end the Great Depression, people at least saw they had a president who was using all the tools at his disposal to make things better for them. If people believe Obama's doing the same, he'll be all right.
November 24, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not if things get worse for an extended period.
There will no confidence in him if things get substantially worse. There will be calls for him to resign. Unlike the progressives, most Americans are not ready or willing to accept failure.
November 24, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!
Particularly the "there will be calls for him to resign". Thanks for that!
November 24, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you SFC Wallace in disguise?
November 24, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure this moron in Fogu2. Sounds exactly the same.
November 24, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not as many typos, though.
November 24, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that you are right. Totally sounds like him or her.
November 24, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually enjoy sparring with Wallace. This one? Not so much.
November 24, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wallace is much more coherent and nimble than this guy. This guy sounds like a sophomore at a College Republicans meeting.
November 24, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're cute when you try to be all "street" 'n' stuff.
November 24, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think to make real sense of the poll numbers is to know whether the "some/not much" people believe someone else with a different approach could do a "great deal/good amount."
And while I would say he could do a "good amount" (with the potential to do a "great deal") I think the situation is going to get worse before it gets better. In other words, doing a "good amount" means turning a utter meltdown and turning it into a bad recession that we can come out in 18 months or so.
November 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
This economic disaster and unlikely recovery has the potential to fairly or unfairly determine his legacy. He might end up spending most of his political capital just to find paper for stimulus.
November 24, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's not his fault."
And that is irrelevant. He has adopted this sick puppy and now he'd better cure it.
The economy and all its problems are now Obama's.
No excuses. Sounds like you're already ramping up 4 years of "it's Bush's fault" as an excus. The Reps tried that with Clinton.
If the economy tanks, Obama must accept blame. Goes with the territory.
November 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Effing Troll Alert!!!
November 24, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because you have no cogent response.
November 24, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some you spent most his lifetime here making racist and abusive comments doesn't deserve a cogent response. You're a racist shitbag. I'm sorry- that's not an opinion but a fact based on your past performance.
November 24, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Being delusional does not make you correct, just delusional.
November 24, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now THAT sounds EXACTLY like fogu2.
November 24, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You need to think bigger than this. The economy, all its problems, race-relations, global-warming, and its problems, the environment, and its problems, cancer, disease, pestulance, the potholes in my street: all of these are ALL of Obama's problems, and if he doesn't solve them by next Thursday, he deserves to be impeached.
November 24, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
And, in reality the economy is way, way too big for any of this stuff to really work in the short term. He just has to show leadership and that he is trying to do something, when he can after 1/20 and that might help the economy along.
We just lost over 44 trillion on paper. One trillion in paper stimulus is a drop in the proverbial bucket.
It really is frightening.
November 24, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Moreover, I think Obama may end up spending most of his political capital trying to fight for this stimulus.
November 24, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope not. There are to many other things that need to be done as well. I really don't think that the stimulus that they are talking about will really do anything, other than try to change perceptions. We really are looking at a huge, huge problem that will take years to work itself out.
November 24, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would add on a positive note that overall, businesses and investors want to expand and invest. If the global economy can stabilize for the most part in the next twelve, there will be those out who will want to try to seize the opportunities that will be out there, if, and that's the big if, they perceive that in another 6 to 12 months the ecomony will begin to grow again. The money Obama will inject into the system will go a ways towards the "stop the bleeding" so we can catch our collective economic breath.
November 24, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you are right and your points are the conventional wisdom. The problem is the size of the problem. It is huge and the hit on all aspects of the world economy is huge. I don't know if they can print enough paper to solve the problem, or stop the bleeding. The worldwide economy, which is in trouble, is so big that these small stimulus packages really won't do squat. In the past, the entire world didn't tank at the same time. It was a certain region, and then the other regions helped to prop up the tanking region's economy. This time it's the entire world at the same freaking time and our illustrious financial wizards on wall street with the help of republican policies and turning a blind eye are freaking responsible. What a catastrophe.
November 24, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is BETTER that the majority of people think that Obama can't do much about the economy than people having too much confidence that he can.
Obama needs to strike a good balance of keeping expectations low but continue to give people hope that eventually things will get better. So far he is doing a good job of it.
November 24, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, and I think it reflects what a lot of the polling told us during the campaign, which is that the American people actually have a pretty realistic, mature view of where things stand, remarkably unencumbered by the conventional wisdom of the punditry.
November 24, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the public knows the Republicans have been an unmitigated economic and foreign disaster. Capped by Shrub, the worst president in modern history. So they know the Democrats will turn this mess around.* Both here and abroad.
*Well, except those pathetic Republicans who are so insecure that they have no ability to admit when they are wrong or any ability to accept responsibility, so all they can do is lie and spew hate, making their families so proud of their limited intellect. ;-)
November 24, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been searching for polls on the transition between Bush and Clinton (unsuccessfully) and came across this:
Interesting similarity to this year.
November 24, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fascinating find. Now, why is it conventional wisdom that attack ads always work? Very strange.
November 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is it conventional wisdom? There's some evidence in the persuasion research that negative ads work, but you have to be careful how you define "negative".
The cynical and critical side of me says that it's a catch-phrase for journalists--instead of trying to explain that Dukakis lost because of a variety of reasons, it's quicker and easier to point to the Willie Horton ad, and in the next breadth lament that the state of race relations in the U.S. is such that the Horton ad actually worked. It's a twofer for pundits.
November 24, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points. I think dukakis lost for a variety of reasons as well. The tank ride and his debate perfomances killed his chances as well. Also, bush I was likeable. I actually thought that he would make a good president, better than the b-movie actor. I am sure alot of people thought that as well. Unfortunately, he was awful domestically. Foreign policy was excellent. Domestic policy s*cked wind.
November 24, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would add that the conventional wisdom is driven in part by local/state elections where negative campaigning does seem to work a good part of the time.
November 24, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, that is an excellent point. They don't get as much coverage, so they do the soundbite blast to get attention and smear the opponent. On the national level it doesn't work as well, as evidenced by the current campaign and 92 because of all the media attention. Interesting.
November 24, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats to the rescue (again)!
Why do we have such a wimpy reputation when it seems like it's always the Democrats that have to rescue the country when the Republicans run it into the ground?
November 24, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I really don't get it either. For the last hundred plus years dems have been saving the country after the repubs f*ck it up every time. It really is mindboggling.
November 24, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope that sentiment is echoed by the surrogates every time surrogates open their mouth for the next 100 years.
Seriously. That's an argument for never ending victory right there.
November 24, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just waiting for another republican to say that "the fundamentals of the economy are sound." Was that priceless or what? Unbelievable.
November 24, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And most all the posters hear thought no quick action should be taken, that is was all a scam and a sham.
You're all so brilliant, in your own minds at least.
November 24, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
And here's the link for those interested:
The view of the 1992 race in October
November 24, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And as I predicted, the prog/liberal wing will accept failure after failure and try to place blame elsewhere. SOP
November 24, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we accepted failure we would have voted for McCain.
November 24, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
But then you would have accepted success because then he would have won.
Curious irony there.
Try again to come up with something clever. 'Kay?
November 24, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Using your logic, liberals/progressives accept only success because Obama won.
November 24, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, Obama's election is a failure not a success. He is ready to embrace failure as inevitable. He is the fearless leader of pessimism. His lemming minions will cheer as he leads them off a cliff. Unfortunately, the sane among us are likely to get dragged over the edge with you.
November 24, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
"No, Obama's election is a failure not a success."
The real failure here is the misguided belief that your clumsy trollery wouldn't be immediately discounted.
November 24, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL right wingers like you blamed everything on Clinton for 8 years then you started blaming Obama the day after he won the election for everything. Just like the Bush presidency was all a puff of smoke.
November 25, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
All of this commentary about the propiety of names is highly informative and educational. It's a good thing there's nothing more important to discuss.
November 24, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. As I posted above.
November 24, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Talk about spin! "44%"??
71% think he will be able to do something more than "not much" according to the linked pdf.
November 24, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Gots to love an optimist. Unfortunately for the rest of us though, economic expectations tend to be somewhat self-fulfilling.
November 24, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks don't think Obama can do anything about the economy because they know deep down that these are the end times and that all the bad people are going to be covered in highly flammable marshmallow and set alight by satanic pixie-demons. Amen
November 25, 2008 1:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought this was funny at first but then realized that this explanation made the most sense of all....I have a born again cousin who worries that the nation will be smote by God if we dont stop our evil ways.
November 25, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush spent 8 years pushing as much money, trillions and trillions, over to the supply side of the economy, which hollowed out demand.
It was then papered over with cheap money from China.
All this happened after 20 years of supply side economics. There was already too much money on the Supply Side when Bush took office. That's what caused the deflationary recession he had at the start. That's what causes stock market bubbles - too much money too little return because there's too little demand out there.
I've always thought that Bush's policies were a suicide mission. I told everyone I knew. Now that the nation is in a tailspin, they act like what I said was just a coincidence.
The only way Obama can truly save the economy, is reach right over into the supply side, grab all that gifted money, and then some, and drag it over to the demand side.
That might mean soak the rich taxes. That might mean taxes, not just on income, but on out right wealth, that might mean the kind of taxes we had during WWII.
On a longer term, we need structural changes to ensure that the balance of bargaining power over wages is such that wages always advance with productivity.
For a society: Concentrated wealth is like standing up in a canoe, it's prone to sudden epic disaster.
November 25, 2008 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fast solutution is: bushcon must return all stolen funds.Then they all must pay the price for looting.
Note: does it matter if you call clinton clinton?
This is why nothing gets done.
November 25, 2008 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton was never polarizing. That was all about 16 years of right-wing spin attacks that MSM peddled as fact. Hillary Clinton has always been one classy lady and one terrific mom.
As for the doom and gloom on the economy, I believe that we are seeing a rather gross over reaction to the gross inaction of the last couple of years. Everybody knew we had an extended housing bubble but policy makers knew that to correct that bubble would throw the country into recession heading into the 2008 election. What they didn't seem to understand was that housing couldn't be made to extend out far enough to avoid the certain recession and only meant that the recession would be worse as a result.
The problem I have to date is that the pressing problem is very weak demand. We need immediate action in that area more than the activity in proping up Citi. Bush is incapable of acknowleging that supply side is the cause of the current problem so he cannot shift gears and propose demand side measures to reverse his failed policies. That, sadly, has to wait another 60 days.
November 25, 2008 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink