Outside Groups Dumped Big Money Into Presidential Campaign
It's become an article of faith about this race that outside groups didn't really lay out significant resources to influence the campaign's outcome. It turns out that this isn't really true, however.
A new study by the Campaign Finance Institute tallied up the numbers. More than $180 million will have been spent by so called "527" groups, less than the $338 million spent by them last time but still a sizable chunk of cash by any definition.
Meanwhile, other right-wing and business-backed groups poured huge money into the race, with the NRA chipping in $40 million and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce dropping $12 million.
And still other winger groups were active, too: Let Freedom Ring and the American Issues Group spent a combined $8 million on ads attacking Obama, for instance over his associations with William Ayers.
One other key finding, on a pet topic of ours: The big unions were huge in picking up the slack on the left. Since January of 2007, Dem-backing 527 groups spent $133 million, with the biggest players being unions like AFSCME and the SEIU. When the history of what happened in the battlegrounds is written, labor deserves a big, juicy plug.
Final Obama win probability by Nate at 538?
98.9%
Nuff said.
November 4, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I had hoped we would push McCain under 1%. :)
John
November 4, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sam Wang's permutation model which is supposedly more comprehensive than the 538.com bootstrap gives McCain essentially NO chance of winning.
http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/
But thats just based on poll data - if there is election theft in PA etc, then who knows?
November 4, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have McCain at 0% as well, and have since the race swung back strongly. I just hoped to see that 0.8% up there on Nate's site. :)
John
November 4, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed! That and swift passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.
November 4, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reposts so that everyone knows.
Thank God, only a few hours remain between Palin and Obscurity.
Oh, did I mention?
I voted for my president today.
That's right. Not just a president but my president.
Pretty Special.
November 4, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think we'd be that lucky to presume Palin will slink back to Alaska never to be heard from again.
I'm afraid she will be turning up for a few years to come...at least in 2012 when she thinks she can take on Pres. Obama.
"Mark my words" we haven't seen the last of her. Even if we wish we had.
--------------------------
Obama 2008
“Mad McCain” videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
November 4, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00
Check out this video
November 4, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps big labor is back?
Slightly O/T: could another thread devoted to election stories be created? Pretty please?
November 4, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
done
November 4, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let the issues be the issues . . .
November 4, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/242659.php
Tape?
I can't stomach Fox on a day like this.
John
November 4, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then why watch?
Don't take Fox seriously. They've fully become the network for fringe elements this election season.
Nobody believes them. Think about it. If Fox had any credibility Obama wouldn't be still winning.
November 4, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only 527 ad I've seen this entire election cycle is the new Reverend Wright one that airs every five minutes on the cable and regular networks.
November 4, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans' response as the results start rolling in tonight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhxpohzZHbc
(Can't take credit, I swiped it from John Pitney's post over on The Corner)
November 4, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooooh Lithhhpin' Rudy Giuliani is on MSNBC right now predicting a major upset tonight! He just said he's willing to bet anything McCain is #44.
This coming from the man who predicted all he needed was Florida to becoming the GOP nominee!
Keep predicting, Rudy!!!
November 4, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say we take him up on it. If he loses, we never have to hear from him again.
If McCain wins, I'll vote Rudy in 2012.
November 4, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have $10k that says he's a chump. Where can I get some of his action.
November 4, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00
I found this hilarious video on the internet this morning. :3
November 4, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's nothing that can be done about this because it's part of the electoral process that people can run ads and push a particular candidate. The problem isn't that people are too involved in politics, the problem is that not enough people are involved and too few people look at the issues with a critical mind.
Check out this McCain ad on YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBLwRwU3z8w
November 4, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought it was clear that I wasn't watching Fox today.
That said, if they do something really stupid, I don't mind watching one of the TPM Guys clips of it.
BTW:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/242737.php
Josh - you need to calm down and enjoy it a bit. It's in the bag. You're about to see the greatest election day of your life. Don't spend all of it being stressed out.
John
November 4, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink