Oregon GOP Senator Gordon Smith Projected To Lose Re-Election
The vote count is still going on in Oregon, where the state is processing ballots under the state's mail-in vote system, but it now looks like Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has lost re-election to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley.
The Oregonian, the state's biggest newspaper and home to some of the top experts in how to interpret votes as they're counted under the state's unique voting method, finds that Merkley and Smith are currently running neck and neck in the count. However, the vast majority of the remaining votes are in the Democratic strongholds of Portland and Eugene -- and on that basis, they have projected that Merkley will be the winner once all the votes are in.
Along with the other five seats that they've already picked up, this now brings the Democrats to 57 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman as a member of the caucus, with three more races up in the air in Minnesota, Alaska and Georgia.
As we previously noted, polling of voters who had already mailed in their ballots was consistently showing Merkley with a big lead over Smith, which the incumbent would be hard-pressed to make up. And apparently he was not able to overcome that gap.
Damn. 538 is projecting that Stevens may still lose in Alaska, and that Dems may pull off a runoff race in Georgia. If the recount in Minnesota pulls it out for Al Franken, then we're at 60 with Lieberman? Yikes, we'll have to keep the little troll around then, but it'd be worth it.
November 5, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for confirming my bad math on that -
Dayum! Wow!
November 5, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to be a wet blanket, but I think it's fair to say that 538 put all this a bit more cautiously.
They didn't project Begich to beat Stevens -- just said it might be possible. Likewise with Martin. They just said that special elections really depend on organization and motivation.
However, I'm psyched about OR!
November 5, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of Lieberman, I'm trying to decide which Godfather character he reminds me of.
The obvious first choice is Fredo, except that Fredo was never really conniving so much as he was just dumb.
I'm thinking it's Sal, Carlo, or Hyman Roth.
November 5, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about Tessio?
November 5, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
But remember, he said if the Democrats reached 60 he would vote with the conservatives, i.e., Republicans. The existence of America depends on his doing so, according to his so called "logic."
November 5, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now there's a guy with principles! WTF?!?!
November 6, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am just on edge hoping for Stevens to go down. Otherwise, I suspect Palin will appoint herself for his seat.
November 5, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
She can't. She'd have to resign first and have her Lt. Gov. appoint her.
I guess that's possible= but I don't find it likely.
November 5, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just read that in Illinois, the Governor could appoint himself to take Obama's Senate seat. Is Alaska different in that regard?
November 5, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Alaska law requires a special election to be announced by the governor and held within 60 to 90 days of the announcement.
November 5, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that clarification, I appreciate it.
November 5, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now we just need an update on Alaska, does anyone have a breakdown up online of why we're not calling that one?
November 5, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
This just in from Mark. On our three military bases we won. This has big ramifications for the absentee vote. Here are the numbers:
Ft. Wainwright (Fairbanks): 270 Begich 184 Stevens
Elmendorf AFB (Anchorage): 723 Begich 461 Stevens
Ft. Richardson (Anchorage: 235 Begich 137 Stevens
*Courtesy of Daily Kos*
November 5, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's great !
Pardon me reposting about my lady, Scout Tufankjian.
She is a freelance photographer based in Brooklyn, New York. She has covered Obama from his early days of the campaign. Her collection goes further back. Brian Williams introduced her briefly today. I am very impressed with her work. Visit her site: her work on Obama won't disappoint you.
http://www.scouttufankjian.com/main.php
November 5, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a fabulous collection of photos!
http://www.scouttufankjian.com/main.php
November 5, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG, those are fantastic photos. And the one's with both Obama and Biden make me feel so good and so secure about the coming administration.
November 6, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hot damn. Say goodbye to Senator E. Coli!
November 5, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! Another one bites the dust.
Chambliss, Toobz and Coleman would be even sweeter, but this is a huge one. Every senate vote is golden.
I'm hoping that they can appeal to Snowe, Collins, Specter and ... hmmm ... are there any other semi-sane Republicans in the senate?
November 5, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hagel. Maybe Lugar.
November 5, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lugar said no.
November 5, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hagel retired and Lugar has already said he's staying in the Senate. If Obama really wanted a GOP Senator, he should arrange it so they are replaced by a Republican even if it is a Dem Governor. Otherwise the Senator wouldn't join his cabinet and America would be missing out (assuming Obama thought they were the best option).
November 5, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes, we'll have to keep the little troll around then, but it'd be worth it.
oy ... do you think Lieberman might vote against healthcare or the green energy initiative to spite the dems?
November 5, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
They were saying on Olberman tonight that LIEberman broke his promise that while speaking at the Republican convention, that he would not bash Obama.
Now, I think he is out unless he makes the 60th vote.
Of course, since the VP is in charge of the Senate, maybe we can count on Joe Biden's vote. (God I'll miss Palin)
November 5, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not if he wants any chance at all of being able to keep his seat. The shame is that hes got 4 years to try and make CT forget that hes a scumbag
November 5, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think folks here are going to be disappointed when Lieberman isn't tarred and feathered...
November 5, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe me he will be. First he will be stripped of the Committee Chairman, and he'll be forced to join Republican caucus. Then, he'll be relieved of Senatorial duty in the next election. Then, he will retire.
That will do.
November 5, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Harry Reid sounded really weak about this type of action. Harry Reid also is driving me nuts. Can we please have a real leader?!
November 5, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just read somewhere Reid would ask him to step down.
BTW, where were you last night? I missed you.
November 5, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are nice to ask that, I missed all you too. The truth is, the kids all called, my two brothers called, and it ended up being a phone celebration evening. I kept wishing damn, I want to be blogging at TPM :)
November 5, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be happy with just "drawn and quartered". Don't like the heavy handed stuff.
November 5, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, don't think it is going to happen.
November 5, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read somewhere today that Reid would ask him to step down.
BTW, where were you last night when we were parting here? I missed you.
November 5, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missed you too.
November 5, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? He said he'd 'ask him' to step down?
Great. When Lieberman says no, Reid will escalate to then writing him a sternly worded letter!
November 5, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why would you do that with that Judas (did you see him weakly behind Mcinsane's election day "campaigning" ?).
Enough with this obsession with filibuster proof majority. Do you think the repugs are going to filibuster every progressive program given the mauling they got recently. Hilary Rosen on CNN pointed out rightly that the recent votes on progressive issues were lost by just 1 to 3 votes.
So, be happy with dem majority and fuck the 60 that has Joe, the Judas in it.
November 5, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
All president Obama has to do, is use his database, and inundate that recalcitrant Senator with calls and e-mails!
November 5, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, yup. You betcha.
November 5, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Daily Kos received a couple of emails from Mark Begich's brother, Tom, who sounds quite optimistic about the 60,000 ballots that haven't been tallied yet. He says that Mark will not concede.
November 5, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to hear.
November 5, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Hagel was retiring.
Haven't there been quite a few allusions to the idea that Obama will put Hagel in his cabinet? He did say he would be appointing Republicans. I could handle having Hagel in there. He's knowledgable and fairly moderate. And he works with Obama well.
Frankly, I'm excited about this "post-partisan" idea. Isolating the Michelle Bachmanns and Sarah Palins and James Inhofes of the world doesn't hurt my feelings at all.
November 5, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hagel will be retiring, and I personally would love to see him as Secretary of Defense. Really like his steadiness.
November 5, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
With all due respect, I think that the present SecDef, is not only competent but a balanced one. By keeping him (the present Sec Def) Obama will have one less battle as he goes through the first 100 days. And Obama still has the option of removing him.
Right now we need stability and a clear direction to the future.
November 5, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree totally. I was thinking down the road, after the dust settles.
November 5, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me, too. He'd be perfect. And he and Obama get along extremely well.
Hagel's wife endorsed Obama; Hagel "couldn't" for the same reasons Lugar "couldn't," which is to say that they are Republicans in the Senate, so doing so would've been a slap in McCain's face--against decorum and all that.
That said, Hagel did everything BUT endorse Obama, including going to Iraq with him. I think he'd be perfect for Defense. How could Republicans in Congress disagree with that.
November 5, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hagel would be good for Sec of the Army or the VA...Not Sec Def...Not enough knowledge of the inter service command...Just my opinion.
November 5, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And he was Airborne too!
November 5, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I think Gates or Danzig.
November 5, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez Southpark is a hoot tonight.
Obama and McCain are really master thieves and the whole election was part of their plan to steal the Hope Diamond - kinda like Ocean's 11, 12, 13, etc.
And now they're doing Palin -
November 5, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ewwww....
November 5, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes I put that very badly.
November 5, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there's a "moderate coalition"--most Dems along with Snowe, Collins, Lugar--we may not need Lieberman.
The thing is, even though Dems may control, what, 57 seats? 56? You've still got people like Ben Nelson of Nebraska to deal with...a Dem who always votes with the Republicans, just like Lieberman.
The number is meaningless. It's the coalitions we build that will matter. If Obama treats the Republicans more respectfully than they've treated the Democrats--and sticks to the big issues instead of culture war issues--he can build a power center that will get things done, and all of them get re-elected.
November 5, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I've been thinking about today. There are Republicans who will be willing and then some to work with this new administration, I think. He has a huge mandate. That makes a big difference. He's already signaled an end to hardline politics and has reached out to the Republicans.
I am not too worried about his ability to move his agenda. The hardcore resistance, it seems to me, is going to be smaller than it was before.
It looks mighty good to me.
November 5, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me, too. It's time to get things done.
If Republicans feel like their ideas are included and they're being heard, I think they'll want to be involved. It's good for their constituents, which will be good for them, personally.
And all along, Obama has done exactly what it was he said he'd do. He's steady. Why would he now change--from "Change"?
November 5, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't need no stinking 60! All the O has to do is talk to America. We are not red or blue America, we are Americans...All he has to do is explain to America, what has to be done. We will listen and decide on our own. And if we believe he is right we will respond with a vengence.
We don't need not 60, We need us!
It is all about us!
November 5, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree -- it seems hopeful. Senate Republicans have not been totally wacko.
The House Republicans may get shriller -- but they're so outnumbered that, frankly, they could spend the next four years building ships out of toothpicks and it wouldn't make any difference.
November 6, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
O the House is pitiful - John Boehner is largely the reason.
November 6, 2008 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great idea!
Personally, I favor having them put the cotton inside those little Anacin bottles. That takes concentration.
November 6, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
John Kerry possible Secretary of State. I would like that for him, he has been out there for Obama, and he deserves it, hell, Ohio screwed him royally last time round. I like yesterday's Ohio much better.
November 5, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I'm kind of rooting for Bill Richardson for Secretary of State. He's got the negotiating credentials.
Plus, being a former New Mexican, he's my personal favorite of everyone Obama might choose from.
November 5, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
He'd be good.
November 6, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama should recall Shinseki, to head the Joint Chiefs of Staff...He put together the Army that went inot Baghdad and fullfilled their mission; and warned Congress that there were not enough troops to do the job right!
November 5, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another good call. Hell, bring ball all military men who left because of disagreement with BushCo.
November 5, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
As we say in Hawaii, this is a keauhou (A new moon) A new beginning...Let's hope for a Mahina (a temperate moon)...And look for the Keauhou.
Imua (forward)
Lokahi (together)
Obama!
November 5, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The cool thing, as we're talking about this cabinet stuff is this:
Look at this incredibly talented, multi-party field of people Obama has to choose from! And it's all because he built this coalition. Richardson, Hagel, Lugar, Voelker, Powell, Kerry, Nepalitano, Buffet, Rubin, Sebelius--statesmen and -women, dozens of retired generals and admirals. He drew all these different voices to him because he's an intelligent, steady hand.
As CBS reported tonight, it has been very clear in just the past 24 hours the incredible good will this election has started to bank us beyond our own country.
November 5, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I moved to Oregon in 1987, the state had a tradition of republican senators. At the time, they were the notorious (yet moderate to liberal) Bob Packwood and Mark Hatfield (a man of supreme integrity—one of the only republicans to oppose the Vietnam war and the death penalty due to his catholic faith). Packwood, as some might remember, was forced out by sexual scandal and Hatfield retired. Ron Wyden took one of the seats, and in what many of us thought was shocking at the time, Smith took the other (can't remember which order they went in and who took whose seat). Now, after all these years, the state with the some of the most progressive politics in America has finally gone all blue in its senate delegation. Woo-hoo!
November 5, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wyden beat Smith for Packwood's seat when he was forced out. Smith won election to Hatfield's seat when he retired.
It was interesting, too, because, as is common for Smith, Smith ran a much better campaign than Wyden.
Yet, this time, Smith really foundered. He didn't know who to attach himself to. He's still loved in the rural parts of the state, but he could say Obama's name on the wall.
November 5, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have met Jeff Merkley and talked to him and he strikes me as a man of integrity and intelligence. I believe he will be a great senator for Oregon. It will be sort of "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington," except in this case he's replacing Mr. Smith.
November 6, 2008 1:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Out to make a buck already...
http://pictopia.com/perl/gal?process=gallery&gallery_id=63481&provider_id=25&ptp_photo_id=wpost:6609825
November 5, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other thing you just gotta love:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
"Scheunemann became close with Palin during her debate prep process."
Take a look at that picture. Does ol' Randy look a little like the "First Dud" there? Not surprising that McCain's staff members were knifing each other in the back once Palin came on board. She's all about divide and conquer.
That woman's bad medicine.
November 5, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes she is.
November 6, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to Politico, Obama seems to be walking back his anti-lobbyist stance and K Street is already re-organizing, taking over smaller Dem-linked firms, or promoting Dem insiders up the food chain to head some firms.
November 5, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you are going to be inclusive, even those on the other side of the fence, may have ideas that make sense.
November 5, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Politico can calm down. Jeez. He isn't even in office yet. He doesn't control what K Street does - of course K St. is going to start courting Democrats.
November 6, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to keep remembering, too, that I voted for him because I trust him. No one's going to agree with another person 100% of the time, no matter what.
Bottom line, I trust that he has the best interests of the country and its people at heart. He may make mistakes, but I believe his efforts will be in the right place. I have to remember not to try to micromanage my expectations.
November 6, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not recall Obama ever saying that he was going to rid government of lobbyists (he did said that about his campaign staff and advisors, however). Obama's has said that lobbyists would not have the only seat at the table when authoring policy and legislation, and the process would be transparent.
If anything, The Politico piece seems to me to be consistent with Obama's past statements about lessening the influence of lobbyists in his administration. The cooling off period, as an example, is a good idea because it creates a big disincentive for people to jump out of corporate gigs and start lobbying on behalf of their "former" employer.
I do not see this as "walking back" anything.
November 6, 2008 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
As we say in Hawaii hoomanawanui!
November 6, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
ot- I had twenty buddies and their famileies , that believed that demonizing each other would not work. We came to a decision not to allow our comrades make a wrong decision.
So we had a Fishing tournement.
Took them out of the election
Little did we know some of them went for Obama and voted before the event.
WE cried together, and became stronger Americans!
November 6, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Tena and all of you we did something good:
http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/articles/2008/11/05/local_news/local03.txt
November 6, 2008 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the final senate totals have we included the fact that Joe Biden will now be the VP
November 6, 2008 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The totals are based on a DEM being appointed to replace Biden by the DEM gov in Delaware.
November 6, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone see Maddow last night getting all agitated over the idea that Stevens will be kicked out of the Senate and that Palin would appoint his replacement and then going off on the possibility that she could step down and have her Lt. Gov. appoint her??
Someone needs to tell her that that's not how Alaskan law works.
I LOVED Maddow as a panel guest on Hardball or whatever. I hate to say that I'm not loving her show all that much.
November 6, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Palin is smart enough to have figured that out or dumb enough to think people would warm to the idea.
November 6, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I caught that, too. I'm surprised that someone didn't fact check that for her.
I like Rachel a lot, but she can be a bit of a concern troll. She was almost unbearable on election night up until they called Ohio for Obama.
By the way, glad you had a great time in Grant Park. You should do a blog and share your experiences for those of us who had to watch on tv.
November 6, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, I think she's getting a bit too cute and perky on her show. I loved seeing her as a guest on other shows because she was so smart and to-the-point. But the cuteness factor now is turning me off.
November 6, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
ACK!
I've been sitting here waiting for our Election Center Morning Round Up!
November 6, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, nevermind. We still do get those.
November 6, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink