Obama's Routes To Victory
If Barack Obama wins all the Kerry states and their 252 Electoral College votes, as seems all but certain, and wins either Florida or Ohio, it's over. What if he doesn't win either of those states?
Here, as we await the results, are his main paths to victory.
The Virginia scenarios. If Obama takes Virginia, where the polls show him leading by anywhere from three to seven points, he gets the state's 13 electoral votes, putting him within five of the needed 270. At that point he'd only have to win one other of the following states: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina.
Keep in mind that Obama is leading significantly in Iowa and New Mexico, has decent leads in Colorado and Nevada, is tied in Missouri and North Carolina, is either tied or running just slightly behind in Indiana.
The non-Virginia scenarios. Without Virginia, Obama needs to win two or three of the following states, depending on the combination: Colorado (9 electoral votes), Indiana (9), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), Nevada (5). The minimum amount he needs is 18 votes.
That's where we are.
Late Update: To clarify, the reason we broke it down into Virginia and non-Virginia scenarios is because Virginia could potentially be called early on because of its relatively earlier poll closing time. If Obama wins the state, we may know fairly quickly that Obama is the next president. If not...
One last petition for an open "I voted" thread! I've read a number of inspiring stories, and it'd be nice to have one place to permalink!
November 4, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
From WaPo's site, Karl Rove Predicts Obama Blowout:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/11/03/karl_rove_predicts_obama_blowo.html
Karl's map, here:
http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/McCain-Obama_11_3_08_FINAL.pdf
Karl is predicting 338 EVs for Obama. Myself, I think he can also win NC, IN, and MO, for 375. (And he might could take one of the following: GA, ND, MT, or AZ -- what I call the "gravy" states.)
-- ARG
November 4, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know about NC or IN, but I think he'll take MO.
November 4, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
375 was my prediction too. Can't wait to see the map covered in blue.
November 4, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has a ground game in Montana and McCain has nothing, so this one could very well end up in Obama's column.
November 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
What about the stupendous blowout scenario?
It's gonna be a fat day for the skinny guy!
November 4, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I likes it - A phat day for the skinny guy.
That's awesome, jzap.
November 4, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kinda OT, but if this doesn't bring a tear to your eyes, then you need a humanity transfusion;
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Obama-grandmother-dies-before-election-Democratic-presidential-candidate-presidential-election-Sen-Barack-Obama/ss/events/pl/102108obamagrandmoth/im:/081104/480/d8b60f09de824ec09cef96beb1c69c36/;_ylt=AoMnD3nj.bONtqGRukojg_dvzwcF
November 4, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
all of the above seems about right to me
November 4, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
and not to forget the Bin Laden scenario, there was NO al Qaeda video this year. Here's a take on it by ABC. The explanation is crediting our government's cyberattack on al Qaeda since 9/11/08, but maybe they are just trying to claim credit. Link:
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6173515&page=1
November 4, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama: It will be fun to see how the story ends.
Fun..lol. I'm a nervous wreck...how can he be calm...aaahhh....OK I'm off to the local Obama office here shortly to join in on the fun.
Cheers all.
November 4, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's calm and that made it more piercing than it otherwise would have been to see him cry.
For everyone who thought he was emotionless- I hope you get it now. He's not - he's just cool.
He's the coolest mofo who ever ran for this office.
November 4, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Watching him with his kids sold me way back when. Anybody can be smart. Not everybody can be a great dad.
November 4, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did this post just totally disappear for y'all for a few minutes? It did for me.
November 4, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The same happened to my own post a couple of times the last couple of days.
November 4, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
As the update says, when you see Virginia called for Obama, you can safely go to bed. Hopefully pretty early.
November 4, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why would I go to bed when I can PARTY ALL NIGHT!!!
November 4, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm too f'in middle-aged to have the energy to do that anymore. Sigh.
November 4, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm 51 (going on 14 according to my wife).
November 4, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, but I'll wait to see what those states lining the Great Missip do, then I'll be opening that bottle of 50 year old cognac
November 4, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shit. You just reminded me that I have a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue I'd been saving for a special occasion. I think tonight will qualify.
November 4, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
sipping Woodford Reserve tonight. Should be fun!
November 4, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I normally try to stay away from negative comments, but I just saw Sarah voting in Wasilla.
She has been carting her offspring around for the last couple of months everywhere she goes but doesn't have them with her to vote.
I guess she doesn't need a stage prop to for her vote to count.
November 4, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did anyone else catch her thing on SNL last night. Uncomfortably not funny.
November 4, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I missed it it.
Did it have to anything to do with kids as props?
November 4, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
No. It had to do with SNL's parodies of her and how when she takes the oath of office in January, the first thing she's going to do is pull NBC's license (no one really laughed).
It would be funny if it wasn't exactly the type of thing she would do.
November 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
It really was kind of,um, vindictive? I'm searching for words here. All I can say is that Palin wasn't funny, wasn't happy, and seemed kind of pissed at SNL. Maybe she was just tired. I'm not sure if the writers bombed or if she came up with her own jokes
November 4, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. It had to do with SNL's parodies of her and how when she takes the oath of office in January, the first thing she's going to do is pull NBC's license (no one really laughed).
It would be funny if it wasn't exactly the type of thing she would do.
November 4, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm banning these books. and SNL too....
November 4, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Voting doesn't require stage props - a least she understands that.
November 4, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mosseolini is still yapping about on CNN. lotsa also's, alaaska's, cleaning up the entire wahington single handedly, blah, blah. This woman's hubris is staggering.
There were some hecklers about 50 feet behind her. I couldn't catch what they were saying.
November 4, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain filed suit yesterday to block Virginia from being called early because of the Military votes not being counted in the total.
November 4, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah I read that last night.
Since the state has never done that before, and since those ballots only get counted where the election is very close, I don't think he's going to win that -
But you never know for sure what a court will do.
November 4, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
They can only delay the official count. Do they really think the courts can tell the networks what they can and can't say based on their exit polls and projections?
November 4, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
No.
It was another last minute desperation play.
November 4, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe the test is if the number of outstanding absentee ballots issued are enough to swing the election, then it would be possible. However, the military had a deadline weeks ago for everyone to get their ballots mailed.
November 4, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The financial markets are reacting in sympathy with the voters. It's riding +250 to 300 points and that's at the opening bell. If it looks like an Obama victory, by oh'dark thirty in Asia there'll be a financial tsunami sweeping from Asia thru Europe and back to the shores of America.
If I were a betting person, I'd being any much stock as I could afford right now.
November 4, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
any=as
November 4, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just FYI, but I thought this was interesting (and heartwarming). Steve Benen's reporting over on Washington Monthly's Political Animal that they looked into the possibility of Madelyn Dunham's vote (she voted absentee) being counted. Turns out that under HI voting laws it's totally legal, so she did get to vote for her grandson becoming the next President. I'm crying again. . .
November 4, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's up there smiling right now.
She probably already knows the result being next to God and all.
November 4, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was reading about the ACORN problem in Nevada a few weeks back and there actually was one instance, on record, were a dead person voted. Turns out the person was alive when they made their selection and mailed it off. Then person died some time before the election. The state decided that since the person was alive when they cast their vote the ballot was valid and should be counted.
November 4, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope the pundits point out tonight just how significant a moment it would be if Obama takes Virginia. It would essentially mean that the state where slavery was first planted in America would be the state to hand us our first black president. Only 40 years ago it was illegal for blacks and whites to marry in Virginia, the state would throw people in jail for doing so, and it fought all the way to the Supreme Court to keep that law. Now, the state sits on the verge of electing a man born from such a union. Obama's parents' marriage would have been illegal in Virginia, and the state would have officially considered him illegitimate. Now, they're about to legitimize him as president. We should never lose sight of the stark reality of continued racial injustice in this country, from a fundamentally unequal education system to a discriminatory incarceration state with a population of millions. But now is a time to pause and note the significance of history. Now is a time for hope.
November 4, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brad Blakeman's at it again! He was just on MSNBC ripping on Obama's "fake tears last night to win votes" and how the death of his Grandmother, though tragic, the timing is "convenient" and "possibly coincidental."
This was the same clown who ripped Obama last week for using his campaign plane to fly to Hawaii to see his Grandmother.
What an ASSHOLE!!!
November 4, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who the fuck was interviewing him and let him get away with that shit?
November 4, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously. How did the anchor react?
November 4, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Flabbergasted, but Blakeman just had a smirk on his face the whole time. It was pretty much something said at the very end of the interview and not much reaction time was allowed.
I'm watching the live feed on msnbc.com. Oh look, and Sarah Palin is giving a press conference in Wasilla ripping on Obama's "coal comment."
They know they're on the ropes today, so they're all putting on their best smug faces to show they're not feeling hurt or angry.
November 4, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That kind of shit ought to be stamped out. I mean, if you are the Republican Party, do you want one of your representatives on TV acting like a soulless jerk? This shit won't fly to well with the masses.
I'm all for the Dems winning big today, but I like the 2 party system. If one of those parties comes off as inhuman, it doesn't have long on this earth....
November 4, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's a jackass....and a bitter jackass at that.
November 4, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still in the definite maybe column, but if Obama pulls this off, those ass-clowns will find they wouldn't have much of an audience to entertain. I fact, I would say the only venue that would require their talents would FOX - and they can only take on so many. Their days are numbered.
November 4, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama wins tonight, the right wing pundits will be just fine - they'll spend the next 4-8 years bitching and moaning about Obama this and Obama that. If one hair on Obama's head is out of place, the GOP pundits will jump all over it and make it a crusade for "change."
Idiots!!
November 4, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who the fuck was interviewing him and let him get away with that shit?
November 4, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of their second-hand "weekend" people - she was conducting the show outside of "Election Plaza" in front of 30 Rock.
Chuck Todd's on now, but he wasn't the one who talked to Blakeman.
November 4, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope the pundits point out tonight just how significant a moment it would be if Obama takes Virginia. It would essentially mean that the state where slavery was first planted in America would be the state to hand us our first black president. Only 40 years ago it was illegal for blacks and whites to marry in Virginia, the state would throw people in jail for doing so, and it fought all the way to the Supreme Court to keep that law. Now, the state sits on the verge of electing a man born from such a union. Obama's parents' marriage would have been illegal in Virginia, and the state would have officially considered him illegitimate. Now, they're about to legitimize him as president. We should never lose sight of the stark reality of continued racial injustice in this country, from a fundamentally unequal education system to a discriminatory incarceration state with a population of millions. But now is a time to pause and note the significance of history. Now is a time for hope.
November 4, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope the pundits point out tonight just how significant a moment it would be if Obama takes Virginia. It would essentially mean that the state where slavery was first planted in America would be the state to hand us our first black president. Only 40 years ago it was illegal for blacks and whites to marry in Virginia, the state would throw people in jail for doing so, and it fought all the way to the Supreme Court to keep that law. Now, the state sits on the verge of electing a man born from such a union. Obama's parents' marriage would have been illegal in Virginia, and the state would have officially considered him illegitimate. Now, they're about to legitimize him as president. We should never lose sight of the stark reality of continued racial injustice in this country, from a fundamentally unequal education system to a discriminatory incarceration state with a population of millions. But now is a time to pause and note the significance of history. Now is a time for hope.
November 4, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just found this on the HuffPost's boards. Thought I'd share it. Pretty neat!
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November 4, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
cool. thanks. saved it.
November 4, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it.
November 4, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell week is over. Now it's time to be saved. Someone start passing out the holy water.
I voted a month go absentee. The wait for the final result is like watching grass grow.
November 4, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/04/opinion/04tue1.html?pagewanted=2&hp
Here's why it matters that Obama gets there, no matter the route. The fact that Bush is still president until 1/20 may be a joke during that Daily Show segment, "George W. Bush - Still President"...but the Times reminds us today, anew, what loathsome scum he and Cheney are determined to remain between now and 1/20.
November 4, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is no way, no how under any circumstance possible under any scenerio envisioned that Obama does not take Iowa.
Iowa is IN THE BAG as sure as Cali or Mass. is. Book it.
November 4, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's where we are.
I think the article is looking a bit too narrowly at Obama "paths". I know the intent is to not get expectations up. But the reality is that Obama has many paths to victory. He's tossed up in GA and Indy for christ sake.
The trickier part is to find McCain paths for vistory, and how quickly they get cut off come the close of polling.
John
November 4, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will Virginia results be reported as a total, or broken down according to the existential definitition of the region of the state in question (real vs. not real, or Communist Virginia vs. Free-Virginia)?
November 4, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will Virginia results be reported as a total, or broken down according to the existential definition of the region of the state in question (real vs. not real, or Communist Virginia vs. Free-Virginia)?
November 4, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will Virginia results be reported as a total, or broken down according to the existential definition of the region of the state in question (real vs. not real, or Communist Virginia vs. Free-Virginia)?
November 4, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink